I haven't watched a ton of college basketball this year, but I definitely haven't seen six players I'd take ahead of Buddy Hield. I think Ingram is the best pro player I've seen. His game seems ready made for the NBA. Then... ? Hield is probably the next best. Simmons doesn't look ready. There aren't any dominant big guys. Who looks better than Hield?
For next year? I'm not sure anyone is.
The question is who will be better over the entire 9 years or so you have control of a draft pick.
Over nine years? You only get control over a player for 5. Unless you are sure this guy is going to be a max guy after 4 years, I'm not sure nine years is an appropriate measure of time. Maybe Simmons develops into that guy but I've watched maybe four LSU games and frankly Simmons hasn't once looked like an NBA player. I'm starting to have doubts about what his actual skills are.
Bender I obviously have no information about. Murray and Brown seem like JAGs. The D-League is filled with super athletic guys who can't shoot and good shooters who can't get their own shots.
With restricted free agency, if a team wants to keep a player, it's very likely that player will be around 3-5 years after his rookie deal of four years. 9 years is the upper-bound, but if you're considering whether a pick will have panned out enough to get his second contract, I'd say to look for at least a 7-year time horizon.
But do teams go that far out?
A bazillion things could happen in that timeframe.
I truly don't know...just asking.
I think they do, especially for first round picks. Clearly James Young was a pick for the future, not the present (as an obvious example). Now teams have to weigh how good of a player might be down the line with the cost of keeping him on the roster 3-4 years until he starts to become useful. Sometimes the need for someone useful, or at least the lack of room for anyone useless, might mean that you pass on the riskier picks. Other times, it might seem worth it. But while James Young isn't working out, Avery Bradley was a similar risk and, after a useless first year, or even 1.5 years since it took Doc awhile to try him out, he's turned into a fine contributor.
Meanwhile, teams very much value the controlled contracts that restricted free agency provides. Before they got cold feet due to injury, the Pistons were willing to trade a first for two months of D-Mo, because they know they can keep him. Phoenix sent out a lot for Brandon Knight last year under similar circumstances. So even if you decide you don't want to keep your rookie contract player beyond four years, if he pans out, you can still get a very good return for him on the trade market because of restricted free agency.
