Cooling on Dragan Bender

[Tr1boy]

He is a motiejunas part 2 with slightly better shooting accuracy. but takes a lifetime to release the ball

Can't shoot off the dribble

You might as draft sabonis later imo

[loco_91]

TP for the in depth analysis. I don't know I guess I'm just stubborn but I'm not letting his Euroleague performance change my opinion of him all that much.

This is how I'd rebut some of the criticisms against him.

1. Strength of competition. Very interesting points about the strength of the league but I'd argue that for a young 7 footer its a tough environment to develop in. I'm watching this draft express profile that Givony produced for the Vertical ( https://sports.yahoo.com/news/european-dispatch--getting-to-know-dragan-bender-195451386.html ) and two things continue to pop out... he's surrounded by guards who struggle to get him the ball and the other teams are full of as Givony puts it "many undersized, undertalented and overly physical Americans who were looking to make a name off the ballyhooed 17-year-old." Every game this team plays the #1 thing on everyone's whiteboard is stop Dragan Bender. Put some actual talent next to him and I think he'd thrive in an environment where he's not treated like Wilt Chamberlain.

As for the playing time his team really has no incentive to play Bender extended minutes. Signing a guy like Bender is a good way to generate some buzz for the team but why play some one who is going to bolt to the US in a year or 2? This league may not be good but Macbi Tel Aviv also has to think about it's future in the league and that future will not include Dragan Bender.

2. The Porzingis Effect. I haven't seen a Dragan Bender discussion this year that hasn't mentioned Kristpas Porzingis . Rightfully so since they are both Euro 7 footers with perimeter skills but it just seems like there are more people holding it against him than using Porzingis' success as benchmark. Personally while its an easy comp I don't think it's necessarily the right one. Porzingis is more of a half court player. Great 3 point shooting mechanics off a high release, athletic tip dunks off misses and and a developing deliberate back to the basket post game. All great qualities but it's not how i see Bender succeeding at the NBA level.

Bender is more of a rim runner. He looks like the type of player that will fill the lane on the fast break, find holes in defense off cuts and fire quick release jumpers off the pick and pop. One of the reasons I'm high on Bender as our pick is that I think he's actually more suited to our Pace and Space, Read and React offense than Porzingis might have been. Stevens says that the 4 and 5 are relatively interchangeable in how they operate in our offense and I think Bender is capable of spending time at both spots depending on the matchup and who he's on the paired next too. He'll be able to stick with and switch onto guards when they drive too which fits in well with our top 5, no single rim protector, defense by committee.

It's possible to like Bender as a prospect without linking him to Porzingis, after all he's been on the national radar for longer than Kristaps has.

3. Less NBA ready than Brown and Dunn. This one is simple for me. I think we already have a player close to Kris Dunn in Smart and I just think it's easy to see a future where Jaylen Brown is just another athletic wing. IMO Bender has the potential to put us over the top in a way that I'm not sure the other 2 are capable of.

Just my takes. As always in Danny and Brad I trust. Right now Bender is still my pick but if come draft day we take a different direction I wouldn't hold it against him. I'm willing to wait on what Bender can be since I think I know what Dunn and Brown are and what they are is not going to put us where we need to be.

I like your comparison of the difference between Bender and Kristaps. They're both mobile euro 7 footers who can shoot the 3, but the similarities end there. I agree that Bender is in a mold that could fit really really well on the Celtics-- it's a very attractive player profile, and early in the season I thought he was a solid dark horse to go #1. Now I just think that it's become more apparent how much work he has to do before he's ready to contribute on the offensive end, and meanwhile, Dunn and Brown have been looking awesome. Ainge could consider picking Bender over Dunn, as we really don't need another PG, but Brown is going to be tough to pass on with his combo of athleticism + defense + scoring ability.

[Dino Pitino]

What do you guys think?

I think that's a superb analysis and I wish there were an option to subscribe to all your posts. TP!

[loco_91]

What do you guys think?

I think that's a superb analysis and I wish there were an option to subscribe to all your posts. TP!

Aw thanks man

[TheSundanceKid]

Bender is a humongous project and looks to be at least a year away from coming over to the NBA. I know we have a lot of picks, but a team like the Cs will be looking to compete asap. I fully believe we will be choosing Dunn in June and, if we do, we will look to trade that pick or Smart for Noel or Okafor.

Brown could have a strong workout and surpass both Dunn and Bender, but I am with you, Bender is at best the 5th pick for me right now.

Drafting Dunn would be a mistake. Every year an upperclassmen gets drafted ahead of where he should and teams miss out on a better prospect. I don't want to be that team. Brown, Bender, Ellenson would all be better picks.

I think the comparisons with porzingis forget that porzingis was a year older when he declared. If Bender declares you are buying into the notion that he will see a jump next year before he comes to the NBA. I don't think stashing him would be a negative either given the roster crunch we will be facing.

However I expect us to pick Brown if we land at 3 and Bender at 4

[Csfan1984]

Rozier could end up better than Dunn. I wouldn't draft Dunn unless it's a trade down.

[loco_91]

Bender is a humongous project and looks to be at least a year away from coming over to the NBA. I know we have a lot of picks, but a team like the Cs will be looking to compete asap. I fully believe we will be choosing Dunn in June and, if we do, we will look to trade that pick or Smart for Noel or Okafor.

Brown could have a strong workout and surpass both Dunn and Bender, but I am with you, Bender is at best the 5th pick for me right now.

Drafting Dunn would be a mistake. Every year an upperclassmen gets drafted ahead of where he should and teams miss out on a better prospect. I don't want to be that team. Brown, Bender, Ellenson would all be better picks.

I think the comparisons with porzingis forget that porzingis was a year older when he declared. If Bender declares you are buying into the notion that he will see a jump next year before he comes to the NBA. I don't think stashing him would be a negative either given the roster crunch we will be facing.

However I expect us to pick Brown if we land at 3 and Bender at 4

Dunn is only 1.5 years older than Simmons, and he has missed a ton of time with his shoulder injuries. He seems to have the complete package skill and tools-wise to be a two-way PG, and his stats are excellent. It's tough for me to see him not going top 5, and I think he has a good case to go #3.

[ThaPreacher]

I wouldn't even touch Dragan Bender with a stick.
The guy is only averaging 12.5 min a game scoring 5.7 ppg and rebounding 2.3 rpg. That's horrible for a guy playing in such a bad league with low competition. Porzingis is a completely another case as he actually managed to contribute in limited minutes playing for Sevilla in one of the toughest leagues in Europe.

Bold. Considering he turned 18 in November.

If he was any good then he wouldn't be playing 12,5 minutes a game in a bad league. Don't get me wrong he probably has a lot of potential, but I would rather draft a more "finished product" than ending up with another Fab Melo.

Melo was a finished product.

That was the problem.

Melo was not a finished product!  He was cooked! Now get out of my before just thinking of that pick makes me run into a door!

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I was early on board the Bender hype train, but I'm getting off early too. When I took a deep dive into his stats, I wasn't overly impressed. I'll go through all the areas of his statistical profile in turn.

Strength of Competition – How strong is the Israeli BSL league? According to Layne Vashro's Relative Competition Score, the BSL scores a 0.52, which is comparable to strong NCAA conferences; the best NCAA conference scores are .48, .5, .54, .56, .68, .76, and .96. Other points of reference include the CBA (-0.04), the D-League (1.2), the Euroleague (1.6), and the NBA (3.3). So it seems that the level of competition that Bender has faced in the BSL this year is at best marginally stronger than Dunn (Big East: .56) or Brown (PAC 12: .54). Meanwhile, he's only managed to earn 11 minutes per game and 2 starts in 25 games. He's also had 86 minutes this year (one third of his total) against stronger Euroleague (1.6) and Eurocup (.92) competition; in these gameshe struggled.

Shooting + Scoring - In all samples I could find, Bender is 35/49 (71%) from the line, and 13/18 (72%) this season. He's 25/80 (31%) from 3, and 17/43 (39%) in 25 games/279 minutes this season. If he's legit a 39% 3pt shooter, that's exciting, but the fact that he shot 8/37 (22%) before this season needs to be taken into account as well, and while his free throw numbers are decent, you'd expect them to be more in the mid-high seventies for a legit 40% 3pt marksman. He's only 18/41 (44%) from 2 this season, and he's scoring 12.4 points per 36 in total. Against stronger Eurocup + Euroleage competition, Bender struggled, going 6/14 from 2 and 2/12 from 3.

Stocks – Bender is racking up blocks and especially steals at a healthy rate. He has 24 career steals and 28 career blocks, or 1.7 and 1.9 per 36 mins respectively (this season: 1.4 and 2.0 per 36). These numbers are really solid for a permiter-oriented big. For comparison, Simmons is getting 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks per 36; Ingram is getting 1.3 and 1.5; Brown is getting .9 and .9; Winslow got 1.6 and 1.1;  Durant back in '06-'07 got 1.7 and 1.7; Bosh in '02-'03 got 1.2 and 2.5; Towns got .8 and 3.9; WCS as a freshman got 1.3 and 3.2; Noel got 2.3 and 5.0. So basically, Bender has a solid steal rate and a good block rate if you view him as a wing prospect, and a decent block rate and a great steal rate if you view him as a big man prospect.

Assists/TOV – Bender has 43 career assists and 46 career turnovers (this season: 16 and 15). A roughly 1:1 ratio is pretty good, better than Brown (55:85 on the season), Noel (38:45), Towns (44:53), Bosh (38:72), freshman WCS (27:48), or career Olynyk (107:140), comparable to Ingram (55:58), and worse than point forward Simmons (140:89!), underclassman Kaminsky (36:19), or Winslow (82:71).

Rebounding – Bender has 37 career ORB and 83 DRB, corresponding to a rate of 2.5 and 5.7 per 36 (this year: 2.1 and 3.9). His career rate of 8.3/36 compares with Ingram (7.2), Brown (7.3), Winslow (8.1), and career Olynyk (9.6). It pales compared with Simmons (12.2!), Noel (10.7), Bosh (10.4), Durant (11.2), or Towns (11.4).

Age – Bender only just turned 18, so he has tons of room for growth, and plenty of upside. There's also the possibility that he is literally still growing, as he measured 6'10 in Eurocamp 2014 and 6'11.5 in Eurocamp last year, without shoes.

Outlook - Bender is an intriguing prospect with very good tools, but his stats don't back up the top-3 hype. He has lots of upside as a 7'1 PF who can switch onto guards, but there is some risk that Bender turns into a taller version of Jerebko. In order to pick him #3, I'd want to see him really crush it in a workout, demonstrating that he's added some strength without losing any quickness, that his handles are developing, and that his recent hot 3pt shooting is no fluke. It could also be a game changer if he grew an extra inch or two, enabling him to protect the rim despite his limited verticality. Currently, I rate him #5 him behind Dunn and Brown, and I'm not sure that I would've taken him top 10 in last year's draft class.

What do you guys think?

Loco_91, that was amazing. TP to you. Please do more reviews.

[konkmv]

Brown every day

[PhoSita]

It's just so hard to evaluate Euros with stats and limited tape.  The sample size is small, the competition is questionable, and the game is very different.

Generally I'm in favor of taking chances on Euros with picks in the late lottery and beyond.  Seems like a good gamble in that situation.

In the top 5, though?  That's scary.

Bender will probably fall somewhere on the Jan Vesely - Tony Kukoc spectrum.

Are you comfortable with that range of outcomes?

[Quetzalcoatl]

I agree and was on the Porzingis hype train from day 1 last year.  However, I would draft Bender 8th overall and feel pretty decent about it.

My rankings would be: Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Dunn, Poeltl, Murray, Hield, Bender.