I was early on board the Bender hype train, but I'm getting off early too. When I took a deep dive into his stats, I wasn't overly impressed. I'll go through all the areas of his statistical profile in turn.
Strength of Competition – How strong is the Israeli BSL league? According to Layne Vashro's Relative Competition Score, the BSL scores a 0.52, which is comparable to strong NCAA conferences; the best NCAA conference scores are .48, .5, .54, .56, .68, .76, and .96. Other points of reference include the CBA (-0.04), the D-League (1.2), the Euroleague (1.6), and the NBA (3.3). So it seems that the level of competition that Bender has faced in the BSL this year is at best marginally stronger than Dunn (Big East: .56) or Brown (PAC 12: .54). Meanwhile, he's only managed to earn 11 minutes per game and 2 starts in 25 games. He's also had 86 minutes this year (one third of his total) against stronger Euroleague (1.6) and Eurocup (.92) competition; in these gameshe struggled.
Shooting + Scoring - In all samples I could find, Bender is 35/49 (71%) from the line, and 13/18 (72%) this season. He's 25/80 (31%) from 3, and 17/43 (39%) in 25 games/279 minutes this season. If he's legit a 39% 3pt shooter, that's exciting, but the fact that he shot 8/37 (22%) before this season needs to be taken into account as well, and while his free throw numbers are decent, you'd expect them to be more in the mid-high seventies for a legit 40% 3pt marksman. He's only 18/41 (44%) from 2 this season, and he's scoring 12.4 points per 36 in total. Against stronger Eurocup + Euroleage competition, Bender struggled, going 6/14 from 2 and 2/12 from 3.
Stocks – Bender is racking up blocks and especially steals at a healthy rate. He has 24 career steals and 28 career blocks, or 1.7 and 1.9 per 36 mins respectively (this season: 1.4 and 2.0 per 36). These numbers are really solid for a permiter-oriented big. For comparison, Simmons is getting 1.8 steals and 1.0 blocks per 36; Ingram is getting 1.3 and 1.5; Brown is getting .9 and .9; Winslow got 1.6 and 1.1; Durant back in '06-'07 got 1.7 and 1.7; Bosh in '02-'03 got 1.2 and 2.5; Towns got .8 and 3.9; WCS as a freshman got 1.3 and 3.2; Noel got 2.3 and 5.0. So basically, Bender has a solid steal rate and a good block rate if you view him as a wing prospect, and a decent block rate and a great steal rate if you view him as a big man prospect.
Assists/TOV – Bender has 43 career assists and 46 career turnovers (this season: 16 and 15). A roughly 1:1 ratio is pretty good, better than Brown (55:85 on the season), Noel (38:45), Towns (44:53), Bosh (38:72), freshman WCS (27:48), or career Olynyk (107:140), comparable to Ingram (55:58), and worse than point forward Simmons (140:89!), underclassman Kaminsky (36:19), or Winslow (82:71).
Rebounding – Bender has 37 career ORB and 83 DRB, corresponding to a rate of 2.5 and 5.7 per 36 (this year: 2.1 and 3.9). His career rate of 8.3/36 compares with Ingram (7.2), Brown (7.3), Winslow (8.1), and career Olynyk (9.6). It pales compared with Simmons (12.2!), Noel (10.7), Bosh (10.4), Durant (11.2), or Towns (11.4).
Age – Bender only just turned 18, so he has tons of room for growth, and plenty of upside. There's also the possibility that he is literally still growing, as he measured 6'10 in Eurocamp 2014 and 6'11.5 in Eurocamp last year, without shoes.
Outlook - Bender is an intriguing prospect with very good tools, but his stats don't back up the top-3 hype. He has lots of upside as a 7'1 PF who can switch onto guards, but there is some risk that Bender turns into a taller version of Jerebko. In order to pick him #3, I'd want to see him really crush it in a workout, demonstrating that he's added some strength without losing any quickness, that his handles are developing, and that his recent hot 3pt shooting is no fluke. It could also be a game changer if he grew an extra inch or two, enabling him to protect the rim despite his limited verticality. Currently, I rate him #5 him behind Dunn and Brown, and I'm not sure that I would've taken him top 10 in last year's draft class.
What do you guys think?
