From all the things stated, it sounds to me like this would have been a player who is on a team that had high expectations at the start of the season, but has turned out significantly underachieving.
That could mean a team that had playoff aspirations but is currently out of the playoff picture (Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Washington, Sacramento, New Orleans)...
Or it could mean a team that felt it was a legit title contender, but now feels like they aren't good enough to contend (Miami, Indiana, Atlanta, Chicago, Clippers, Thunder, Houston, Memphis).
That gives us the following list of possibilities to start with:
New York
Brooklyn
Milwaukee
Washington
Sacramento
New Orleans
Miami
Indiana
Atlanta
Chicago
Clippers
Thunder
Houston
Memphis
2) The report was that the team decided to try and do as best as they can this year and see what happens, and revisit the idea later. That suggests that it was a team that is at least competitive enough that they have an outside chance at reaching their goal, and aren't quite ready to give up yet.
That eliminates Milwaukee, Brooklyn and New York from the list, since all three teams are almost 8 games out from the #8 seed and have almost no hope of making the playoffs at this point. ..so the new list would be:
Washington
Sacramento
New Orleans
Miami
Indiana
Atlanta
Chicago
Clippers
Thunder
Houston
Memphis
3) Ainge specifically said that he wouldn't make make major sacrifices for an older (30+ year old) star, or for a rental, and that the deal was not for a previously reported player.
That pretty much eliminates Miami (Wade and Bosh are both older), Atlanta (no real superstars, and Horford was a rental) and Memphis (Gasol and Randolph are both old) and also eliminates CP3 and Blake Griffin from the Clippers and Kevin Durant from OKC (rental):
This pretty much leaves us with:
Washington (Wall)
Sacramento (Cousins)
New Orleans (Davis)
Indiana (George)
Chicago (Butler, Rose)
Clippers (DeAndre Jordan)
Thunder (Westbrook, Durant)
Houston (Harden)
I'll tackle these one at a time.
Washinton
They have been a huge disappointment this year, and while their two stars (Wall and Beal) aare both still quite young, the rest of their roster has little upside with Gortat / Hump / Nene up front. Could be that they have considered rebuilding and giving up on the Wall/Beal era. They just traded Hump for Morris, which could be a sign of them trying to make one more shakeup move to see if they can improve things..or it could also be a move to add another young piece to start a rebuild. Maybe they are ready to give up on Wall and move forward with Beal, Morris and the Brooklyn pick?
Washington are only 3.5 games behind Chicago for the 8th seed, so makes sense that they'd want to ride the season out one more time before giving on such a star player.
On the other hand it sounds odd that Boston would trade for a PG when we have Thomas and Smart...but then again, Wall is a legit superstar and if you had a chance to get him you'd probably give up any PG on your roster.
This could be a "maybe".
Sacramento
This actually makes a lot of sense.
Sacramento is in a disaster zone (even more than usual) with their staffing. They already announced that Rudy Gay is on the trading block. Rajon Rondo is a free agent after this season and will look for a big payday after his production this year. Short of WCS and Cousins there isn't a lot of promise on the roster, and the team is only JUST outside of the playoffs which means they won't get a strong pick.
They haven't been able to make anything work in the Cousins era yet and have very little promise moving forward, so if they miss the playoffs again it makes a LOT of sense to tear the house down and start again. Trading Cousins to Boston for the Brooklyn pick gives them a chance to start anew with a potential top pick (while also keeping a second of their own) and allows them to speed up a rebuild.
Makes too much sense to ignore, and this year there were actually very few (if any) reports linking Cousins to Boston beyond fans posting on CB.
The Kings are only 4 games behind Houston for the 8th seed, so after taking the gamble on Rondo, it makes sense that they might want to ride it out rather than giving up on this year entirely.
Cousins makes sense because he's still young (26 or so) and still has about 3 years left on a very friendly contract. He's also a big man and a definite superstar.
It also meets the "high risk or both teams" criteria, since giving up a lot of assets for Cousins is obvious a big risk (given his personality concerns, etc) and giving up a superstar player like Cousins to jump into a rebuild would also be a huge risk for Sacramento.
Meets every criteria on Danny's list, pretty much, so I think this one has a very high chance. Pretty much makes sense from every angle, and IMHO is probably the most likely scenario.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have sucked this year, but as bad as they have been they are still only 5.5 games out from the 8th seed and they have a Anthony Davis is only 22 years old, still has 6 years on a fresh contract, and is a top 10 (probably top 5) player in the NBA.
No matter how you look at it, there is no scenario where trading Davis makes any sense for the Pelicans...you'd do ANYTHING before even dreaming of that.
I say the probably of this one is pretty close to zero.
Indiana
Indiana aren't really contenders right now, but I don't think they ever would have considered themselves to be with the roster they had. Paul George is really the only really impressive talent on that roster, so if anything I would say that a #5 seed in the easy is probably overachieving. They are only 2 games behind Boston for the #3 seed, so a competitive playoff run is well within reach.
Paul George is only 26 or so, still has 4 years or so on his contract, and is playing like an absolute beast. Seems to make very little sense to trade him now - just doesn't fit the team position really.
I think this is a pretty slim chance.
Chicago
I would be horrified if Ainge made a move on Rose, but technically either Rose or Butler could be potential targets in Chicago - and both do fit the "superstar" label.
With Rose emerging and some talk about he and Butler not getting along, Chicago could choose to trade him away and build around Butler. Ainge apparently did also say something about it being "a risk for both team". Trading for Rose would certainly be a risk for Ainge, and also a risk for Chicago if the main asset they get back is the Brooklyn pick (as it could go 1 or 6). Makes quite a bit of sense, much as I hate to admit it. Rose has been in the league a while, but he's still only 27 years old and he still has another year on his contract after this year, so it wouldn't be a rental. Question is whether Danny would take that gable, given Rose's injury history. I wouldn't if it were me, but Danny isn't one to shy from a gamble, so who knows.
Butler is less of a chance I think. He's quite young, he has 5 years on his deal (so no risk of walking) and he is a very versatile two-way player who is very, very easy to build around since his game works well with pretty much anybody. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me that Chicago would deal him, but if there are major chemistry issues who knows.
Bulls have been underachieving for years, and are currently barely holding down the 8th seed, so definitely would be understandable if they were to decide to blow it up. I just feel that if they DID do that they would give up everybody else, and build around Butler. At least that seems to make the most sense to me.
Clippers
DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers could be an outside possibility. What they have now isn't getting it done, and everybody has been suggesting they might trade Griffin...but what if it was actually DeAndre, and not Blake? Maybe they want to create an identity as a run and gun offensive team, and they feel that Jordan's offensive limitations don't fit the scheme? They might be considering moving him for a stretch four who.
The Clippers currently have $77m in salary dedicated for next season, when the cap rises to $89m. A deal involving Kelly Olynyk, David Lee, Avery Bradley and the Brooklyn pick would probably make some sense. It would give them a stretch four, a wing defender (which they desperately need) and a strong lottery pick, while also saving them around $9m in cap space next year once Lee expired. That would put them at around $68M in salaries next year, which leaves them with enough cap space to go after a max contract free agent.
The Clippers are 13.5 games behind the Warriors and 10.5 games behind the Spurs so they have minimal hope of catching either team...but they might have decided to wait the year our and see how they can go in a 7 game series against those teams rather than give up now.
Not likely, but possible.
Thunder
Like the Clippers, the Thunder are really good - but they're 10 games behind the Warriors and 7 games behind San Antonio, and they look unlikely to catch either. They have gone for years with this group and haven't been able to catch the ultimate prize (title) and have only made the finals once.
If they fear that Durant is going to leave in free agency, they might have been on the verge of blowing it up and starting again. Trade Westbrook, let Durant walk, get as many assets as they can, and start again. They built their current team mostly through the draft, so they might be confident doing a rebuild that starts with the Brooklyn pick.
I think it's probably unlikely to be honest, but not impossible.
Houston
The Ty Lawson experiment has been a disaster, and it's well known that Howard and Harden don't get along...and that Howard is likely to walk in free agency.
With the team barely holding up the 8th seed in the West (just a half game up on Utah) how much worse will they get if they lose Howard next year? Without Howard their second best player is either a highly underperforming Ty Lawson, Terrence jones, or Trevor Ariza maybe. Not a lot of upside there beyond Harden and Capela. Terry, Smith and Thornton all expire after the season. Could make sense for them to trade Harden away and rebuild.
But it doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me. Harden still has 3 years on his deal, and he's only getting paid $15m a year (bargain deal) so why not try slip Capela in Howard's spot and try to rebuild around Harden? Seems to make more sense to me, especially given how much trouble they gave teams in the playoffs last year.
I think this is unlikely, but not impossible.
So based on all that, I think the most likely possibilities are:
* John Wall
* Demarcus Cousins
* Derek Rose
* DeAndre Jordan
With an outside possibliity of:
* Paul George
* Jimmy Butler
* Russell Westbrook
* James Harden
* Kevin Durant (Ainge may waive the 'rental' concern for Durant)
Topic: Danny Ainge on Toucher and Rich (Potential "Big Trade" Discussed) (Read 41337 times)