ESPN Top 50 Trade Values (3 Cs included)

[colincb]

Below is a heavily edited “Insider” ranking of the top 50 best trade values per ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, their resident stats guru. Pelton does a statistical projection of players production and compares that to their current contract and likely future contract values and comes up with a net surplus value (i.e., how much the player is outplaying his contract). This will result in promising players on rookie deals being ranked relatively higher as can be seen by Towns being ranked 6th, Porzingus being ranked 9th, Smart 37th, etc. The overall rankings below reflect a ranking based on 1/3rd of that model and 2/3rds of a panel’s rankings of players relative trade values. One noteworthy disparity is Okafor, ranked 48th overall, whose performance/contract projections per Pelton’s model is negative, but whose value per the panel is relatively high. IOW, someone will be attracted to his raw numbers despite his relative inefficiency to date and porous defense.

For the Cs, IT, JC, and MS are all rated in the top 50 as trade values, IT and Smart are ranked similar between Pelton and the panel, while Crowder is rated much higher by Pelton’s model (14th best performance relative to contract) than the panel (47th). Obviously there’s a fair amount of subjectivity as well as a host of assumptions and projections going into this, but the idea of ranking players performances compared to their contracts isn’t new. Pelton continues to tweak his model to try to reduce the effect of fluke performances, but I am sure front offices heavily into statistical analysis like BOS try to do something similar.

In the chart below, the first number in dollars is the relative outperformance and the second number is the panel ranking.

1. Stephen Curry ($107 million, No. 1)
2. Anthony Davis ($125 million, No. 5)
3. Kawhi Leonard ($115 million, No. 2)
4. Russell Westbrook ($102 million, No. 4)
5. Draymond Green ($97 million, No. 6)
6. Karl-Anthony Towns ($90 million, No. 7)
7. LeBron James ($69 million, No. 3)
8. Kevin Durant ($61 million, No. 6)
9. Kristaps Porzingis ($73 million, No. 9)
10. James Harden ($98 million, No. 17)
11. John Wall ($71 million No. 10)
12. DeMarcus Cousins ($69 million No. 14)
13. Jimmy Butler ($63 million, No. 12)
14. Paul George ($64 million, No. 13)
15. Kyrie Irving ($28 million, No. 11)
16. Chris Paul $49 million, No. 18)
17. Rudy Gobert ($69 million, No. 22)
18. Klay Thompson ($17 million, No. 16)
19. Damian Lillard ($56 million, No. 23)
20. Andre Drummond ($51 million, No. 24)
21. Kyle Lowry ($48 million, No. 25)
22. Andrew Wiggins ($1 million, No. 15)
23. C.J. McCollum ($23 million, No. 19)
24. Isaiah Thomas ($50 million, No. 28)
25. Blake Griffin ($26 million, No. 21)
26. DeAndre Jordan ($61 million, No. 32)
27. Myles Turner ($40 million, No. 29)
28. Nikola Jokic ($57 million, No. 36)
29. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19 million, No. 26)
30. Derrick Favors ($42 million, No. 31)
31. LaMarcus Aldridge (minus-$1 million, No. 20)
32. Jae Crowder ($63 million, No. 47)
33. Devin Booker ($17 million, No. 27)
34. Kevin Love ($51 million, No. 41)
35. Eric Bledsoe ($59 million, No. 48)
36. Khris Middleton ($41 million, No. 39)
37. Marcus Smart ($33 million, No. 37)
38. Rodney Hood ($33 million, No. 38)
39. Serge Ibaka ($7 million, No. 30)
40. D'Angelo Russell ($24 million, No. 33)
41. Paul Millsap ($29 million, No. 46)
42. Clint Capela ($34 million, No. 49)
43. Al Horford ($13 million, No. 35)
44. Gordon Hayward ($18 million, No. 40)
45. Danilo Gallinari ($15 million, No. 42)
46. Kemba Walker ($48 million, No. 62)
47. Robert Covington ($40 million, No. 59)
48. Jahlil Okafor ($minus-2 million, No. 34)
49. Aaron Gordon ($18 million, No. 50)
50. Marc Gasol ($7 million, No. 43)

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14756267/ranking-stephen-curry-lebron-james-top-50-players-trade-value-nba

[arctic 3.0]

Interesting that Al Horford, Hayward and Gallinari are ranked lower then the three C's

[colincb]

Interesting that Al Horford, Hayward and Gallinari are ranked lower then the three C's

Just remember that it's based on performance relative to current and future contracts. IT, JC, and Smart are all pretty much locked into very favorable contract values and Smart projects well statistically on an advanced stats basis for a 3rd year player.

[slamtheking]

Interesting that AB didn't make that list

[sdceltsfan]

Seems pretty accurate, based on everyones contract situations. Interesting that Lebron is at #7, more so because he's on the last year of his deal, and is now notorious for jumping to greener pastures.

Call me crazy, but if I were the Cavs ownership right now, I would be strongly considering moving James before the deadline (no-trade clause?). Obviously not going to happen.....but imagine the feeling of payback, if he were flipped to Philly for say, their 2016 pick, 2017 pick, and Noel, or something along those lines. No guarantee the guy re-signs with Cleveland after this year, so is it out of the question to consider a godfather offer?

This article also makes me wonder about which player would you guys draw the line at in including the Brooklyn 2016 pick? For me, I would go all the way down to Griffin at 25 (excluding IT, who's on our team, Kyle Lowry, CJ Mccolumn, and Rudy Gobert). Everyone else in that top 25, I would offer the BKN 2016 as part of the deal.

[Celtic Fan Forever]

Interesting that AB didn't make that list

This right here. He makes about half as much as Gallinari and Hayward and gives you significantly more than half of the production.

[sdceltsfan]

He's definitely somewhere between 50-60, if not 51. His contract is amazing, but how much higher do you see his ceiling? A lot of talk about him being upset with his current deal also (rightfully so). I don't see him as an outright starter on many teams, which is probably why he didn't make this list. He's definitely a guaranteed 6th/7th man on every team in the league though.

[Dino Pitino]

This is more like Contract Value than Trade Value. Isaiah Thomas is not actually worth more in a real-life trade scenario than Blake Griffin. Still awesome to see three Celtics. Ainge is a beast.

[slamtheking]

He's definitely somewhere between 50-60, if not 51. His contract is amazing, but how much higher do you see his ceiling? A lot of talk about him being upset with his current deal also (rightfully so). I don't see him as an outright starter on many teams, which is probably why he didn't make this list. He's definitely a guaranteed 6th/7th man on every team in the league though.

this could be the case but looking at some of the names on that list, I think AB is being undervalued. 

when he initially signed that deal I thought he was overpaid.  now, after constantly improving since the signing, I think he's legitimately underpaid.  not by lots, but underpaid relative to what he's producing on the court.

[chilidawg]

Interesting that AB didn't make that list

This right here. He makes about half as much as Gallinari and Hayward and gives you significantly more than half of the production.

Advanced stats grade AB as a very average player.

[sofutomygaha]

Interesting that AB didn't make that list

This right here. He makes about half as much as Gallinari and Hayward and gives you significantly more than half of the production.

Advanced stats grade AB as a very average player.

And yet average stats grade him as a very advanced player... =P

[LarBrd33]

unbelievable

[Eddie20]

unbelievable

I know. I'm surprised Covington is ranked so high too. I would've had it Okafor and then Covington, but having a 3 and D guy as your best asset after all this tanking isn't bad.

[colincb]

unbelievable

In terms of the Sixers, it certainly is going to be difficult to reconcile your opinion to the rankings. I think it's fair to say that the Sixers are very difficult to measure even though you invariably seem to think the best of them.

The statistical problem with Okafor is that he's has the 2nd worst Real +/- among centers only to Bargnani and the numbers are bad on both sides of the ball. I think his currently poor Offensive Real +/- will improve dramatically as Colangelo beefs up the team and gets a real PG, but IMO his Defensive Real +/- won't.

Noel has a much better overall RPM and is 3rd among PFs in Defensive Real +/-. Unfortunately, his offensive deficiencies almost offset his defensive abilities. He would be better off at center with a real PG, but that is another byproduct of the Hinkie fiasco. Both players, as well as Embiid, need a real PG, competent team mates, and time to re-establish their value. If the Sixers are to get rid of one of the centers soon it should be Okafor as Noel has more upside.

Pelton cannot value players who have not played a minute in the NBA like Embiid or Saric. Otherwise, Covington is a tremendous value for the Sixers, but if that is Hinkie's best move, it isn't very good.

As for your whipping boy Smart, he has the 6th best Defensive Real +/- and 19th best overall Real +/- among point guards. He's younger than all the PGs ahead of him and by an average of 5 years. He is a lot better than you give him credit for, but so is the rest of the team.

[crimson_stallion]

Interesting that Al Horford, Hayward and Gallinari are ranked lower then the three C's

Doesn't surprise me in the slighest.

All three of those guys are massively overrated here IMHO, and health concerns don't help the cause for Horford and Gallinari either.