People are overvaluing the Brooklyn Pick around here

[chambers]

I get you OP. The thing with this draft is that Simmons is a genuine game changer.  It's very deep draft at the top.

Ingram and Simmons have the potential to be franchise changing players- starting All Stars etc...
 
When the next potential Lebron is at #1 and grant hill at #2, it chanhes people's perspective wildly...which is understandable.

[celticmania]

I don't like this draft.

[TheSundanceKid]

So the other thing to remember with the pick is the level of control we would get with the player. It should work out as 9 years of control. Trading for Cousins or Love doesn't give us anywhere near that level of control. So we would need to be absolutely sure that we could make something of that window to make the deal worthwhile.
Plus we have 3 such picks. There's a chance to build a dynasty from this whilst already building a winning culture! Obviously there's a price for everything but the chance to do that is very appealing to me

[Ogaju]

we are not overvaluing the Bklyn pick at all.

How many fans have the joy of watching their team contend for a very nice playoff spot while simultaneously watching the prospect of a lottery pick. It is pure joy that will go away if the pick is traded. If we trade the Brooklyn pick we will go from rooting for and enjoying every Nets loss to hoping the Nets start to win so that we do not regret the trade.

Also, for me it is not so much that the Brooklyn pick is brought up in trade talk for the aforementioned players is that additional haul that is proposed that cause me to say NO. I have seen the Brklyn pick added to a package of some of our young and valuable assets. I am yet to see a proposal for the pick in a direct swap  for Love/Cousins/Griffin. Its always Bradley/Sully/Crowder or some other combination plus the pick for one of those guys. To that I say NO.

[LarBrd33]

Zach Lowe suggested we could possibly get Gordon Hayward for that pick.  If that's the case, it's likely officially the most valuable asset we have as long as Brooklyn keeps struggling.

If it ends up in the top 2... it's crazy valuable.  If it ends up outside the top 5, the the value takes a big hit.  That's the gamble whoever trades for it will need to take... and why trading for someone like Hayward might make sense if we have the opportunity.

[Sixth Man]

Issues with the following:

Porter a bust
MKG bench player
Parker role player
Towns verdict still out

adjusted MKG and Porter. Not sold on the other two yet.. and not for nothing none of these guys even come close to a star we could potentially trade for.

Karl Anthony Towns is a 20 year old, 7' center, averaging 16 and 10 with 2 blocks and youre not sold on him?

yikes.

I'd happily trade our 2016 Brooklyn pick for Towns right now...

[greg683x]

Issues with the following:

Porter a bust
MKG bench player
Parker role player
Towns verdict still out

adjusted MKG and Porter. Not sold on the other two yet.. and not for nothing none of these guys even come close to a star we could potentially trade for.

Karl Anthony Towns is a 20 year old, 7' center, averaging 16 and 10 with 2 blocks and youre not sold on him?

yikes.

I'd happily trade our 2016 Brooklyn pick for Towns right now...

I'd trade them all for towns right now

[Sixth Man]

Issues with the following:

Porter a bust
MKG bench player
Parker role player
Towns verdict still out

adjusted MKG and Porter. Not sold on the other two yet.. and not for nothing none of these guys even come close to a star we could potentially trade for.

Karl Anthony Towns is a 20 year old, 7' center, averaging 16 and 10 with 2 blocks and youre not sold on him?

yikes.

I'd happily trade our 2016 Brooklyn pick for Towns right now...

I'd trade them all for towns right now

No matter how small the other team goes, you never have to take KAT off the court.  He can defend everyone, everywhere - a prototypical New Age Center.

[celticmania]

I love the fact that we can swap picks in 2017. That draft is loaded. 
Giles= Chris Webber
Smith= Steve Francis Cp3
Tatum= Pierce
Jackson= Andrew Wiggins Jimmy Butler
Ball= Jason Kidd
Fox= Deron Williams
And a bunch more of potential stars

Pardon the hype..

[greece66]

Great post, TP to the OP.

The pick is great and all, but it is good to try and see the other side of the coin some times.

[greece66]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

Good points. IMO another thing to factor in is the value for money rookie contracts offer. You get a player for four years for (at most) 5 mill, and after that the player is a restricted free agent.

Keeping the rookie, means you can afford one more max contract than if you traded the rookie for an established star (who moreover may or may not re-sign once his contract expires).

I'm not at all saying we should keep the pick instead of trading, but trying to add some more elements to the conversation.

[obnoxiousmime]

You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket, and we have the third best ticket currently.

Using your logic, nobody should ever draft a player if there's a star available for trade because the odds are the player is not going to be as good as the defined quantity, even if the defined quantity is much older as available stars usually are.

I suppose Minnesota made a ghastly mistake trading Love for Wiggins (if Love had been willing to stay).

[mctyson]

I've been seeing a lot of potential trade scenarios and a lot of responses that say "not for the Brooklyn pick."
I honestly feel folks are putting way too much value on this Brooklyn pick. Why would people rather role the dice on an unproven talent if that pick can land us somebody like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Demarcus Cousins? All three of those guys would crack most experts top 20 active players in the NBA lists.

Everyone overvalues draft picks.  There is no doubt that a #1 pick is most likely going to turn into an All-Star, but there is no guarantee of that happening and more often the later picks do not turn out to be All-Stars.

http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-history-picking-1-8-nba-draft-percentage-all-stars-1980

The chances of us landing the #1 pick will be < 50%.  So the question we all need to ask ourselves is:  would we trade a <50% chance at an All-Star for a 100% chance at a current All-Star?

In my view, the answer is a no-brainer (Yes) UNLESS you think that you are getting a chance at more than just an All-Star.  And here is where the real overvaluing occurs. 

By it's nature everyone assumes that the #1 pick every year has a chance to be an MVP franchise-changing type player.  But only a few of those come around every decade or so.  People are clearly high on Ben Simmons and feel that he is that type of player.  If Danny thinks Simmons is that type of player, I would be very much against trading the Brooklyn pick.  But my sense is that Danny does not feel he is that type of player. 

Moreover, if Ben Simmons was that kind of generational talent that could make a franchise a Finals contender for years...why would his college team be 13-8?

[pearljammer10]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

The chances of us landing #1 is very low, do people feel there are another 5 or 6 potential stars in this years draft?
Wouldnt you rather trade it now for a proven star then take the low chance of possibly getting simmons?

No i'd rather be patient and see where the pick falls before trading it off. If we get lucky and get the number one pick its even more valuable to us. It is falls between 2-7 its still a valuable pick that we can trade in the offseason for one of the above mentioned superstars if they become available. We have plenty of assets to trade in season. I'd say hold onto this one and be patient with it until we know what we're getting.

[CroCorvus]

Well the beauty of this years Brooklyn pick is we don't know which pick will it be. We know that it will be lottery pick, we can assume that it will be in the top 5 because the Nets are really bad team. We can even , at this point of the season with about 35 games still to play, assume that the pick will be a top 3 pick with the high possibility of choosing one of Simmons or Ingram. That makes this pick real valuable, because you don't know where it will land but you know it will be high. So, with that in mind theres a good chance we get some real value for that pick if we trade him for a star player. Let's say we do that and after the deadline BKN wins more games then phx, min, den and of course lal and phi.