People are overvaluing the Brooklyn Pick around here

[jbpats]

I've been seeing a lot of potential trade scenarios and a lot of responses that say "not for the Brooklyn pick."
I honestly feel folks are putting way too much value on this Brooklyn pick. Why would people rather role the dice on an unproven talent if that pick can land us somebody like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Demarcus Cousins? All three of those guys would crack most experts top 20 active players in the NBA lists.
We are also assuming we will get a top 3 pick, it's not guaranteed we get a pick that high but either way lets take a look at the last 5 years top 3 picks:

2011:
1. Kyrie Irving - superstar
2. Derrick Williams - Bust
3. Enes Kanter - Good Role/bench player

2012:
1. Anthony Davis - Superstar
2. Michael Kidd Gilchrist - bench player/good role player
3. Bradley Beal - Good Player, always hurt, and one that nobody values that highly around here

2013:
1. Anthony Bennet - Bust
2. Victor Oladipo - Good starter/role player
3. Otto Porter - role player

2014:
1. Andrew Wiggins - solid/potential star
2. Jabari Parker - Has potential/good role player/ verdict still out
3. Joel Embiid - hasn't played yet/potential bust

2015: (verdict still out on all)
1.KAT- Verdict still out/Potential star
2.Rusell - Rumored that the Lakers already want to cut ties
3.Okafor - Verdict still out/trouble maker/ style of play is already outdated to todays NBA

Out of the last 5 drafts there are 2 clear superstars (both taken #1), the remainder are either role players or busts. The chances of us landing the #1 pick is pretty low, so why are people shutting down trade ideas for established stars? What is the liklihood this pick brings us somebody with even a fraction of the talent of Blake/Cousins or Love? Assuming the rest of the package for one of these guys isn't out of control we should definitly trade the pick. More importantly outside of Simmons this draft is very weak (also my opinion).
This is just my .02, feel free to cut me down now.

[Eddie20]

Issues with the following:

Porter a bust
MKG bench player
Parker role player
Towns verdict still out

[PhoSita]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

[jbpats]

Issues with the following:

Porter a bust
MKG bench player
Parker role player
Towns verdict still out

adjusted MKG and Porter. Not sold on the other two yet.. and not for nothing none of these guys even come close to a star we could potentially trade for.

[jbpats]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

The chances of us landing #1 is very low, do people feel there are another 5 or 6 potential stars in this years draft?
Wouldnt you rather trade it now for a proven star then take the low chance of possibly getting simmons?

[ChiCeltics]

I've been seeing a lot of potential trade scenarios and a lot of responses that say "not for the Brooklyn pick."
I honestly feel folks are putting way too much value on this Brooklyn pick. Why would people rather role the dice on an unproven talent if that pick can land us somebody like Kevin Love, Blake Griffin or Demarcus Cousins? All three of those guys would crack most experts top 20 active players in the NBA lists.


Totally agree.  If a top 5 pick turns into a Blake Griffin, you got incredibly lucky.  And you're going have to wait a few years before the player is really valuable anyway.  Think about the Ray Allen for #5 (Jeff Green) deal.  Was that a close call?

[positivitize]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

^ this.

I'll take a 15% shot for Ben Simmons. Anything else we get is bonus.

[PhoSita]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

The chances of us landing #1 is very low, do people feel there are another 5 or 6 potential stars in this years draft?
Wouldnt you rather trade it now for a proven star then take the low chance of possibly getting simmons?

The pick currently has a 47% chance of landing in the top 3.  Even if you still want to trade the pick, it'll have more value after the lottery if it ends up in the top 3 than it does right now.

[86MaxwellSmart]

I hadn't heard that the Lakers might wanna cut ties with Russell.

[jbpats]

The Brooklyn pick's potential value has a huge degree of variance.

It could end up #1 overall, in which case it's an amazingly valuable asset, especially since there appears to be a prospect in this year's draft of the sort that only comes around once every 5 years or so.

On the other hand, it could end up at #7 or #8, in which case the Celts will do well to get another might-be-a-decent-starter-someday type prospect.


If there is a reluctance to trade the pick, it's because it's very hard to be sure you're getting a good deal when you're trading away an asset of such unknowable future value.

The chances of us landing #1 is very low, do people feel there are another 5 or 6 potential stars in this years draft?
Wouldnt you rather trade it now for a proven star then take the low chance of possibly getting simmons?

The pick currently has a 47% chance of landing in the top 3.  Even if you still want to trade the pick, it'll have more value after the lottery if it ends up in the top 3 than it does right now.

That goes both ways, whats it worth if it ends up being outside the top 3? It won't land us Blake Griffin or Kevin Love anymore.. We'd be lucky to trade it for Galinari if we end up getting 7 or 8.
Either way it sounds like people would take a 15% chance of getting Simmons over the odds of getting a Kevin Love type talent right now (again this is hypothetical)?
And in the much higher scenario, we don't get Simmons, and end up getting Otto Porter 2.0 at #3.. and passed on that Kevin Love type talent for him?
I guess i'd rather have the proven talent then the unknown.. again thats just me

[jbpats]

I hadn't heard that the Lakers might wanna cut ties with Russell.

http://national.suntimes.com/national-sports/7/72/2512124/lakers-dangelo-russell-available-trade/

[Csfan1984]

It will always be a gamble. And as long as you have a better than 25% chance to land a top 3 pick the draft pick has tremendous value. Remember that the higher you pick the better shot at a higher talented player. It's on scouting, coaching and the player himself to get that drafted player to star levels.

[PhoSita]

That goes both ways, whats it worth if it ends up being outside the top 3? It won't land us Blake Griffin or Kevin Love anymore.. We'd be lucky to trade it for Galinari if we end up getting 7 or 8.

That's true.  I don't believe that Griffin or Love is getting traded before then, anyway.  But just in general, I'm OK with taking the risk that the pick ends up lower.  Trading the pick for something less than a perennial All-Star (which is more plausible), and then watching it turn into a young All-Star prospect, would be just too painful.

[aefgogreen]

We have the Brooklyn picks three years in a row. I can't see them getting better.  The odds that one of those will be top 3 are strong.  As I don't know which one could land us high, I want to play the percentages and keep all three.  I would only be willing to trade one for a sure thing.  I'd probably do the deal for Griffin, but not for Cousins - I don't trust he's anything more than a stat stuffer.

[jbpats]

That goes both ways, whats it worth if it ends up being outside the top 3? It won't land us Blake Griffin or Kevin Love anymore.. We'd be lucky to trade it for Galinari if we end up getting 7 or 8.

That's true.  I don't believe that Griffin or Love is getting traded before then, anyway.  But just in general, I'm OK with taking the risk that the pick ends up lower.  Trading the pick for something less than a perennial All-Star (which is more plausible), and then watching it turn into a young All-Star prospect, would be just too painful.

agreed and understood. My OP was solely based on many reactions I have been reading around here lately.. The most common response to any trade idea or rumor is "I would but not for the Brooklyn Pick"
So if the Brooklyn Pick can land us Griffin or Love or Cousins today you honestly wouldnt trade it for the 15% chance we might land Simmons? To me that is just crazy. I'm not saying we should go trade it for Bradley Beal, I am mentioning proven all stars in the NBA.
Obviously if none of these ideas or rumors are true it's all moot.