I honestly think Smart is already a TA type player at 21.
TAs best statistical season was 06/07 when he was 25. Now this year was the season he only played 33 games then suffered a season ending knee injury.
Min 24 ppg 11.5 FGA 11.4 FG% 51% 3PA 1 3PT% 24% RB 3.8 AST 1.7 STL 1.5 TO 2.3
This season Smart is only 21 and has currently play 26 games
Min 27 ppg 9.0 FGA 9 FG% 34% 3PA 3.8 3PT% 22% RB 4.4 AST 3.2 STL 1.7 TO 1.2
Now just giving the stats a quick look its obvious Smart really needs to improve his shot and shot selection. Simply reverting back to his Rookie seasons 33% from three would be fine for me. Aside from the shooting Smart is a much better passer and less turn over prone then TA was. They are both good rebounders and post the same stats per 40.
At 21 Marcus is still a few years away from being in his prime as a pro basketball player. If he can make a natural progression as a shooter and PG I think its safe to envision a day where Smart is averaging 14pt 5rb 5 ast and playing all Defensive 1st team D.
I can definitely envision that day. Smart's
floor is Tony Allen, and Smart is clearly a better passer and simply a smarter dude than Tony Allen. 14/5/5 sounds about right, that's a bit like how TA was in the last month of 05-06, but better. Definitely seeing multiple All-Defensive years in Smart's future.
But let's not forget how good Tony Allen was in 06-07 before he ruined his knee. There's the November of 06-07 TA who was fighting for minutes off the bench. And
then there's the December/January of 06-07 TA who was starting every game, improving rapidly, and beasting like All Star games were in his near future. That's the best TA has ever been. Using that Allen, the starter from December and half of January, the statline for him in your comparison looks a little different:
32.8 min, 16.4 pts (51.9 fg% on 11.4 attempts, 79.3% on 5.1 free throws, 28.6% on 1.5 threes), 5.5 reb, 2.6 ast, 2.3 stl, 0.6 blk, 3.1 to.
Don't even look at his last two weeks or especially his last 5 games that season, unless you want to remember how crappy it felt as a fan to see all that wild promise crumple into squat on a stupid dunk.
I don't think Marcus Smart is as good as
that Tony Allen, yet. That TA was a wild but efficient beast. Smart's shot is not clunky as TA's, but he still misses way too many shots. He's not as sloppy with the ball, but he's not
not-sloppy, either. There are some differences differences in Smart's favor, yeah. Smart is way more natural in the role of misfit point guard. But it's a rough analogy, supposed to capture the gist of a player's presence on the court. Smart and TA are not actually doppelgangers. Smart sometimes looks more like a poor man's Wade when he has the ball. He looks like a mini-Artest on defense at times, too. Analogies are an inexact non-science.