Help Fix Smart's Offensive Game

[rollie mass]

last year he didn't attack this year he is posting up and taking it to the bigs-he will learn to temper that aggression-he is nowhere near form said ainge-

[droopdog7]

This is a sad thread. The idea for the thread was to suggest ways that Smart could improve.

Then it lead to a lot of people saying that there is essentially no way to fix Smart's offensive game.

I refuse to believe that a 21 year old can't improve. I'd put money on him finishing the season with better numbers and showing improvement from last year on the whole.

Yet people continue to use age as some kind of automatic indicator that he will eventually improve.  Shoot, some fans were waiting for Rondo to improve his shooting until he was 26-27 years old.    Nothing automatic, even with hard work. 

And rather than make generic statements about him being young, I am still waiting for someone to provide a sensible analysis of how he will improve all the deficiencies that are so apparent (beyond this nebulous hard work moniker he has been given). 

[Evantime34]

This is a sad thread. The idea for the thread was to suggest ways that Smart could improve.

Then it lead to a lot of people saying that there is essentially no way to fix Smart's offensive game.

I refuse to believe that a 21 year old can't improve. I'd put money on him finishing the season with better numbers and showing improvement from last year on the whole.

Yet people continue to use age as some kind of automatic indicator that he will eventually improve.  Shoot, some fans were waiting for Rondo to improve his shooting until he was 26-27 years old.    Nothing automatic, even with hard work. 

And rather than make generic statements about him being young, I am still waiting for someone to provide a sensible analysis of how he will improve all the deficiencies that are so apparent (beyond this nebulous hard work moniker he has been given).

Of course there is nothing automatic. But you completely dismissing the idea he can improve is as bad as automatically assuming he will.

There have been studies as to performance of NBA players and on average they improve up until the age of 27. So on average it is more sensible to assume he will improve than to assume he won't.

BUT Again, this thread is about how he would improve, not convincing you will he will improve, but discussing how he would go about improving.

If it helps you pretend this is a hypothetical, if Smart were to improve how would he do it?

Since everyone is trashing Smart's ability and potential in pretty much every thread I was hoping this one would be allowed to discuss how he can improve. Instead, this thread has turned into every other Smart thread, leading to everyone trashing him and his potential.

BTW you are the only one that thinks the idea of him being a hard worker is ridiculous. No one else on this thread has disagreed with that, it's common knowledge.

[PhoSita]

This is a sad thread. The idea for the thread was to suggest ways that Smart could improve.

Then it lead to a lot of people saying that there is essentially no way to fix Smart's offensive game.

I refuse to believe that a 21 year old can't improve. I'd put money on him finishing the season with better numbers and showing improvement from last year on the whole.

Smart can and hopefully will improve.

But we have to be prepared for the possibility that he just doesn't have the physical tools to be an effective offensive player in this league.  That happens all the time.

It was a question about his game when he was drafted.  Can he succeed in the NBA even though in college he got by in large part by being larger and stronger, as opposed to quicker and more athletic, than the guys guarding him?  His rookie season suggested maybe he could, so long as his outside jumper trended upward.

Sophomore season so far says ... maybe not.  Yes, he's had injuries that have undermined his ability to develop offensive consistency.  But injuries might just be a part of his game, since he has to absorb a lot of contact and throw himself around to play his style of defense, not to mention the punishment he takes trying to score inside.

[rollie mass]

please  -crowder is just coming on,jimmy butler and marcus is behind because of injuries-you guys are being brutal for no reason
i have had my share of injuries all cartilege removed never could play right again,my arm so dislocated it shut down for 60 days clinicily frozen shoulder ,there was so much other damage ,sprains so bad it was 6 months before i was right-this kid puts everything on the line while you sit behind a computer,what are your b ball creds  -the most difficult position to learn point guard--lets watch booker tonight he must be shaking

[Evantime34]

This is a sad thread. The idea for the thread was to suggest ways that Smart could improve.

Then it lead to a lot of people saying that there is essentially no way to fix Smart's offensive game.

I refuse to believe that a 21 year old can't improve. I'd put money on him finishing the season with better numbers and showing improvement from last year on the whole.

Smart can and hopefully will improve.

But we have to be prepared for the possibility that he just doesn't have the physical tools to be an effective offensive player in this league.  That happens all the time.

It was a question about his game when he was drafted.  Can he succeed in the NBA even though in college he got by in large part by being larger and stronger, as opposed to quicker and more athletic, than the guys guarding him?  His rookie season suggested maybe he could, so long as his outside jumper trended upward.

Sophomore season so far says ... maybe not.  Yes, he's had injuries that have undermined his ability to develop offensive consistency.  But injuries might just be a part of his game, since he has to absorb a lot of contact and throw himself around to play his style of defense, not to mention the punishment he takes trying to score inside.

Completely understand this, and agree with what you are saying. I was just hoping we could discuss ways in which he could improve.

I wanted this thread to be analyzing ways in which he could improve instead of debating whether he can improve, since I feel like every thread about him leads to a lot of people trashing him. The negativity on here sometimes gets to me, I was hoping it wouldn't be in this thread, maybe I should take a break from here.

I also feel like his athleticism is underrated. He shows his quickness when he defends and shows his vertical leap when he rebounds. It hasn't translated to the offensive end, but I think that with improved ball handling and comfort it will translate.

In general I feel that we are judging him too soon. Not being able to entertain the idea that he could get better 18 games into his sophomore campaign is too early to judge a guy, especially when players of similar position often take the longest to develop.

[rollie mass]

tp to you--simple get healthy and time-

[PhoSita]

If it helps you pretend this is a hypothetical, if Smart were to improve how would he do it?

Smart's current career shooting splits (85 games over two seasons):

28.8% of his shots are from 0-3 and he shoots 52.7% on those attempts
13.5% of his attempts are from 3-10 and he shoots 23.4% on those attempts
5.8% of his attempts are from 10-16 feet and he shoots 39.5% on those attempts
8.3% of his attempts are from 16 feet to 3, and he shoots 31.6% on those attempts.
43.6% of his attempts are from 3P territory, and he shoots 30.9% on those attempts.


None of these numbers are "good" relatively speaking, but they provide a blueprint for how Smart could become at least adequate offensively.

So how could he improve?

(1) Balance out the number of attempts from three point territory with the number of attempts in the paint.

(2) Finish in the paint closer to what he did as a rookie (56%) versus what he's done this year (46.7%).  55% is the minimum there.  He'll probably never be a great scorer from outside so he has to finish well.

(3) Try to expand his in-between game by taking more shots from 10-16 feet.  This year he's shooting 44% from that range, though it's a small sample.

(4) Improve as an outside shooter to where he's hitting better than 33% of his shots CONSISTENTLY.  As a rookie, he shot 33.5% which is adequate, but he was pretty hot and cold.  He shot 24% from three in November, then 38% in December and 42% in January, followed by 27% in February.

(5) Improve as a free throw shooter (aim for  >75%) and increase his free throw rate.  Currently his career free throw rate is 27.6%.  That means he shoots one free throw for about every four field goal attempts.  He needs to get up around 35-40%, where guys like Isaiah Thomas, Kyle Lowry, and Russell Westbrook live.

[Evantime34]

If it helps you pretend this is a hypothetical, if Smart were to improve how would he do it?

Smart's current career shooting splits (85 games over two seasons):

28.8% of his shots are from 0-3 and he shoots 52.7% on those attempts
13.5% of his attempts are from 3-10 and he shoots 23.4% on those attempts
5.8% of his attempts are from 10-16 feet and he shoots 39.5% on those attempts
8.3% of his attempts are from 16 feet to 3, and he shoots 38.5% on those attempts.
43.6% of his attempts are from 3P territory, and he shoots 30.9% on those attempts.


None of these numbers are "good" relatively speaking, but they provide a blueprint for how Smart could become at least adequate offensively.

So how could he improve?

(1) Balance out the number of attempts from three point territory with the number attempts in the paint.

(2) Finish in the paint closer to what he did as a rookie (56%) versus what he's done this year (46.7%).  55% is the minimum there.

(3) Try to expand his in-between game by taking more shots from 10-16 feet.  This year he's shooting 44% from that range, though it's a small sample.

(4) Improve as an outside shooter to where he's hitting better than 33% of his shots CONSISTENTLY.  As a rookie, he shot 33.5% which is adequate, but he was pretty hot and cold.  He shot 24% from three in November, then 38% in December and 42% in January, followed by 27% in February.

Tp I really appreciate it.

How his shooting splits have changed rookie to sophomore year indicating he is moving in the right direction in terms of number one.

[PhoSita]

If I had the tools at my disposal, I'd look up young guys playing the same position, with a similar physical profile, who started their careers with a similar shot distribution and weak shooting percentages, and try to tell you if anybody made the kind of jump we're hoping to see from Smart.

I don't have those tools, though.  I'd be very interested to see the results.

[D Dub]

please  -crowder is just coming on,jimmy butler and marcus is behind because of injuries-you guys are being brutal for no reason
i have had my share of injuries all cartilege removed never could play right again,my arm so dislocated it shut down for 60 days clinicily frozen shoulder ,there was so much other damage ,sprains so bad it was 6 months before i was right-this kid puts everything on the line while you sit behind a computer,what are your b ball creds  -the most difficult position to learn point guard--lets watch booker tonight he must be shaking

TP for continuing to bring the best insights on the board. 

[PhoSita]

Here's a look at the sophomore shooting splits of a guy Celts fans like to compare to Smart:

Kyle Lowry

21 years old, 2007-2008 season

41.2% of his attempts from 0-3, shot 52%
10.1% of his attempts from 3-10, shot 45%
7.3% of his attempts from 10-16, shot 44.2%
17.7% of his attempts from 16 to 3, shot 44.8%
23.6% of his attempts from 3, shot 25.7%

Free throw rate was an outrageous 58.8%

This was playing 25.5 minutes per game, attempting 7 shots a game and getting to the line 4 times (!) a game.


Lowry was actually pretty decent as a scorer as soon as his second season.  He needed to improve as a finisher and a three point shooter, much like Smart, but he was a lot closer.



Let's take a look at another guy who has some similarities in shot distribution (over half his shots from outside on poor percentages), though he was old for a second year guy:

Jason Williams

Age 26, 2001-2002

11.4% of his attempts from 0-3, shot 57.1%  <--- he basically never got in the paint
3.5% of his attempts from 3-10, shot 35.3%
8.2% of his attempts from 10-16, shot 38.3%
33.3% of his attempts from 16 to 3, shot 43.3%
43.7% of his attempts from 3, shot 29.5%

White Chocolate basically took a lot of jumpers, but when he did get inside he could finish there.  He never became much of a scorer, and topped out as a 37% three point shooter at age 30.  His free throw rate was basically non-existent his whole career.  On the other hand, his assist rate was quite high.

[Evantime34]

Here's a look at the sophomore shooting splits of a guy Celts fans like to compare to Smart:

Kyle Lowry

21 years old, 2007-2008 season

41.2% of his attempts from 0-3, shot 52%
10.1% of his attempts from 3-10, shot 45%
7.3% of his attempts from 10-16, shot 44.2%
17.7% of his attempts from 16 to 3, shot 44.8%
23.6% of his attempts from 3, shot 25.7%

Free throw rate was an outrageous 58.8%

This was playing 25.5 minutes per game, attempting 7 shots a game and getting to the line 4 times (!) a game.


Let's take a look at another guy who has some similarities in shot distribution (over half his shots from outside on poor percentages), though he was old for a second year guy:

Jason Williams

Age 26, 2001-2002

11.4% of his attempts from 0-3, shot 57.1%  <--- he basically never got in the paint
3.5% of his attempts from 3-10, shot 35.3%
8.2% of his attempts from 10-16, shot 38.3%
33.3% of his attempts from 16 to 3, shot 43.3%
43.7% of his attempts from 3, shot 29.5%

White Chocolate basically took a lot of jumpers, but when he did get inside he could finish there.  He never became much of a scorer, and topped out as a 37% three point shooter at age 30.

Off the top of my head I thought the best comparison offensively were Gary Payton and Marc Jackson. Big guys who created a lot of offense via post ups.

[PhoSita]

Off the top of my head I thought the best comparison offensively were Gary Payton and Marc Jackson. Big guys who created a lot of offense via post ups.

Big problem with those comparisons (people love to make the Gary Payton comp):


Only 17% of Payton's shots were three pointers his rookie season, and that dropped to 15% his second season.  Payton also finished at 66% in the paint both seasons.


Mark Jackson:

His rookie year, Jackson attempted 1.5 threes per game (out of 12.4 FGA).  He shot 45.8% overall on twos.

His second season, Jackson attempted 3.3 threes per game (out of 14 FGA).  He shot 50.7% overall on twos.

Basically, less than a quarter of his shots were threes, and he was a pretty good finisher inside the three point line.




Both Jackson and Payton had pretty low free throw rates (20-25%) their first two years, though.

[Evantime34]

Off the top of my head I thought the best comparison offensively were Gary Payton and Marc Jackson. Big guys who created a lot of offense via post ups.

Big problem with those comparisons (people love to make the Gary Payton comp):


Only 17% of Payton's shots were three pointers his rookie season, and that dropped to 15% his second season.  Payton also finished at 66% in the paint both seasons.


Mark Jackson:

His rookie year, Jackson attempted 1.5 threes per game (out of 12.4 FGA).  He shot 45.8% overall on twos.

His second season, Jackson attempted 3.3 threes per game (out of 14 FGA).  He shot 50.7% overall on twos.

Basically, less than a quarter of his shots were threes, and he was a pretty good finisher inside the three point line.




Both Jackson and Payton had pretty low free throw rates (20-25%) their first two years, though.

Yeah, that is part of the problem with cross era comparisons. Although I feel like his offensive game is similar to those players, he happens to play in an age where everyone shoots a lot of 3's and no one picks up.