Draft fire power?

[JohnBoy65]

Just thinking about this and wonder what you all think.

Let's paint this scenario: All holds true, Philly gets #1 overall, LA #2, and us #3 via Brooklyn. We all know #1 is the coveted prize this year to get Ben Simmons

Does Danny Ainge have enough  ammunition to fire a deal to pry the #1 pick from Philly? Of course, we could overpay like crazy for it, but what I really mean is this: Do we have enough to offer Philly while staying competitive in the East?

Or would we overpay and have a couple bad years with Simmons and hope he blooms into everything people hopes he will be.

[Csfan1984]

No way if Nets pick is 3. At 2 there is a shot.

[Ilikesports17]

Too early to tell. Right now I'd lean heavily towards no but if Jaylen Brown starts shooting 50% from deep or if Skal goes on an absolute tear and Ingram continues to challenge for #1 the yes it's possible.

Problem is that this needs to become a pre-embiid injury 2014 top 3 type draft. Right now it looks  more like a 2015 pre-lakers being really dumb draft, where okafor and towns are the prizes.

A lot can change from now till then, but to sum it up a 3rd player would have to distinguish themselves

[PhoSita]

Whoever gets #1 and #2 in this draft is gonna keep those picks.  There are two stud prospects in this draft class and then a lot of second and third tier guys in the rest of the top 10.

The #3 pick is a lot more likely to get traded in that scenario, as a result.


My advice to everybody is to settle in and talk yourself into getting excited about Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl, Jamal Murray, or maybe Jaylen Brown.

Any of those guys could become the best prospect on the team in short order, so that wouldn't be a bad outcome.  Just probably not a game changer like we'd hope.

[JohnBoy65]

Another question is this, what's an overpay?


Does Philly even think about doing: 3,19,20, 2 2nd's, Marcus Smart, and a future 1st? For #1 overall? Is that an overpay?

[acieEarl]

Philly does love picks and we could offer a bunch. I can't see Philly or LA, or whomever gets that 1rst pick trade down to 3, as Simmons looks like a can't miss prospect.

[KG Living Legend]

 I second what Pho said, #1 and #2 are virtually untouchable picks.

[sofutomygaha]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

I agree that we're probably taking the pick for granted. But you are pointing to arguably the strongest draft ever. More importantly, does this not look to be a 2-deep draft at the moment?

[aingeforthree]

I don't think Ainge pays the steep price to move up.  He'd stay at 3.

Ainge with a #3 pick is deadly in it's own right.  He will hit a home run with that pick, guaranteed.

[Celtics18]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

I agree that we're probably taking the pick for granted. But you are pointing to arguably the strongest draft ever. More importantly, does this not look to be a 2-deep draft at the moment?

I don't think it's a "2-deep draft" at all.  There are plenty of guys behind Simmons and Ingram who have the potential to be NBA stars.

[wiley]

Whoever gets #1 and #2 in this draft is gonna keep those picks.  There are two stud prospects in this draft class and then a lot of second and third tier guys in the rest of the top 10.

The #3 pick is a lot more likely to get traded in that scenario, as a result.


My advice to everybody is to settle in and talk yourself into getting excited about Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl, Jamal Murray, or maybe Jaylen Brown.

Any of those guys could become the best prospect on the team in short order, so that wouldn't be a bad outcome.  Just probably not a game changer like we'd hope.

Finally some good old fashioned down to earth pessimism that I agree with! 
(as opposed to the all-too-common hysterical pessimism
pretty common around here).

Cousy is an old classic style pessimist.  I miss his brand of pessimism.  Thanks for evoking it!
From your group I'm leaning Ellenson.  Or Bender if you add him.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I don't think Ainge pays the steep price to move up.  He'd stay at 3.

Ainge with a #3 pick is deadly in it's own right.  He will hit a home run with that pick, guaranteed.

What would be a home run with that pick?

I think most here would be disappointed with Dunn or Murray at #3. They're deep within DA's comfort zone, though. I actually like both too, but... yeah.

Poeltl at #3 seems like a serious reach. He would probably help the team, but he is of a dying breed and definitely doesn't ooze superstar potential.

In another thread, Quetz made a great argument against Bender. In general, he is far from rotation-ready, and my fear has been that Porzy's success may have undeservingly driven up his draft stock.

Jaylen Brown is a whole lot like Crowder right now, albeit longer. Hard not to like the kid, but if he even got similar PT in Boston as Winslow and Johnson have gotten in MIA and DET, I'm not sure he'd look any different for a few years.

Our collective expectation may be a bit high for this pick (superstar, now!). I also fear DA's confidence in his ability to land a star is a bit too high, albeit based on his past experience. I wouldn't be surprised to see this pick included in a major move, if one is to be made, after the slot is solidified. Just my 2 cents though, admittedly not grounded in much.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

I agree that we're probably taking the pick for granted. But you are pointing to arguably the strongest draft ever. More importantly, does this not look to be a 2-deep draft at the moment?

I don't think it's a "2-deep draft" at all.  There are plenty of guys behind Simmons and Ingram who have the potential to be NBA stars.

Who are you liking within the 3-6 range, C18? I'd admittedly a pessimist at times and hope to be wrong here. Just not seeing any one guy I'd jump for joy with at #3-6 yet. Still early...

[Celtics18]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

I agree that we're probably taking the pick for granted. But you are pointing to arguably the strongest draft ever. More importantly, does this not look to be a 2-deep draft at the moment?

I don't think it's a "2-deep draft" at all.  There are plenty of guys behind Simmons and Ingram who have the potential to be NBA stars.

Who are you liking within the 3-6 range, C18? I'd admittedly a pessimist at times and hope to be wrong here. Just not seeing any one guy I'd jump for joy with at #3-6 yet. Still early...

I don't really know.  I have seen a few videos and half-heartedly watched a couple of college games, but I am by no means a draft expert.

I'm not expecting a "superstar, now", but I wouldn 't expect that even with the number one pick.  History has shown, though, that there's almost always at least one all star picked beyond the top two or three players.  History also shows that the draft is almost never close to being linear in talent.

I think people make the mistake every single year of wanting to make the draft an exact science.  They want the unknown to be known and disregard history in deciding they know with some kind of certitude how all of these young prospects will pan out as pros.