Draft fire power?

[max215]

Not a snowball's chance in hell.

[sofutomygaha]

I love Ben Simmons.

But the Ben Simmons glare is blinding us from seeing that having the #3 pick in this draft would be amazing. The team that gets to pick 3rd usually does extremely well. In fact #3 picks have lower variance, and more often become stars, than #1 picks.

Superhype top picks are really exciting, but the 3rd draft slot is almost always a tremendous opportunity. When Lebron came up, the #3 chooser had their choice of Dywane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony. The Hawks didn't get a chance at Durant-Oden, so they took Al Horford who has been their cornerstone ever since. James Harden and Steph Curry were still on the board for the Thunder when they missed out on Blake Griffin. Westbrook and Love were both on the board for the Wolves when they missed out on Derrick Rose.

I agree that we're probably taking the pick for granted. But you are pointing to arguably the strongest draft ever. More importantly, does this not look to be a 2-deep draft at the moment?

Yeah, but consider the moment, right? Last year around this time it was going to be a two person draft between Okafor and Towns. Russell was an interesting blip on the radar that no one yet had in their top 5, Porzingis was a mystery man that no fan wanted to see their team draft, and Mudiaye was still surfing on his high school reputation since he wasn't crushing it in China. Was that so different than what we've got now?

[Irish Stew]

Nobody is trading out of 1 or 2. If we are 3, the thought of bringing in someone like Jaylen Brown with his 27 3P% and 67 FT% would be depressing. IMO, the best course is to shop the pick hard for an established NBA player on the good side of 30 and see what the market is. Cousins? Butler? Who knows? We have the assets to make almost any kind of deal.

[PhoSita]

Whoever gets #1 and #2 in this draft is gonna keep those picks.  There are two stud prospects in this draft class and then a lot of second and third tier guys in the rest of the top 10.

The #3 pick is a lot more likely to get traded in that scenario, as a result.


My advice to everybody is to settle in and talk yourself into getting excited about Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl, Jamal Murray, or maybe Jaylen Brown.

Any of those guys could become the best prospect on the team in short order, so that wouldn't be a bad outcome.  Just probably not a game changer like we'd hope.

Finally some good old fashioned down to earth pessimism that I agree with! 
(as opposed to the all-too-common hysterical pessimism
pretty common around here).

Cousy is an old classic style pessimist.  I miss his brand of pessimism.  Thanks for evoking it!
From your group I'm leaning Ellenson.  Or Bender if you add him.

 


I dunno about Bender.  Is he another Kristaps, or another Jan Vesely?  The variance there scares me.  Very few international draftees turn into anything special.

Ellenson and Brown seem like Ainge guys to me.  Plus there's Dunn and Murray likely to go in the top 10, and you know how much Ainge loves his combo guards.  Why not draft another combo guard?  Smart can be the backup SF.

There's also Skal, who provides that tasty stretch-big-who-can-block-shots potential, but it'd freak me out if the Celts drafted him.  I can't help seeing him as Channing Frye with better physical tools. 

[TheSundanceKid]

Nobody is trading out of 1 or 2. If we are 3, the thought of bringing in someone like Jaylen Brown with his 27 3P% and 67 FT% would be depressing. IMO, the best course is to shop the pick hard for an established NBA player on the good side of 30 and see what the market is. Cousins? Butler? Who knows? We have the assets to make almost any kind of deal.

I have by no means been following college basketball and my draft knowledge is mainly based off of DraftExpress videos and highlights. However what I have seen of Jaylen Brown excites me. Those percentages seem to me a slump rather than the rule. He drives hard to the rim and creates a lot of contact. Our team is missing that, I think Crowder and Thomas are the only ones that really get to the free throw line consistently. Plus Brown is considered a low bust risk, kind of like Okafor was last year. I'd be very happy with him at #3

[chilidawg]

Draft Express, Walter Football, Tankathon and Chad Ford all have a top 3 of Simmons, Ingram and Bender.  WF actually puts Bender ahead of Ingram.  So there does seem to be some consensus there that Bender is a top 3 player.  I have no idea.

NBAdraft.net has Brown at 3, and Hoops Habit has Dunn at 3, for a couple other options.

Don't forget we have a lottery, so we really have no idea where we'll end up drafting.  I think the #3 slot still has a 17% shot at the #1 pick.

[Sixth Man]

I wouldn't complain if we had the fourth pick in the last draft in our frontline...

[Big333223]

Simmons is so far ahead of everyone else in college basketball right now, the only way we have a chance of getting him is winning the lottery. I just don't think anyone is stupid enough to trade away the #1 pick this year with this guy on the board.

That said, if the Sixers wind up in position to draft him, I think that makes one of their centers expendable and that's a situation the Celtics should keep an eye on. Not necessarily to trade their highest pick away for, but some other package we could put together to bring in a talent like Noel could really help.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Draft Express, Walter Football, Tankathon and Chad Ford all have a top 3 of Simmons, Ingram and Bender.  WF actually puts Bender ahead of Ingram.  So there does seem to be some consensus there that Bender is a top 3 player.  I have no idea.

NBAdraft.net has Brown at 3, and Hoops Habit has Dunn at 3, for a couple other options.

Don't forget we have a lottery, so we really have no idea where we'll end up drafting.  I think the #3 slot still has a 17% shot at the #1 pick.

I've been doing my best to keep abreast of Bender, mainly out of curiosity and he's finally putting up double digit points and getting minutes.  He also just turned 18 in November, so yeah, he could be okay there.  He's less polished than Porzingis was at this point. 

He's got the tools to be a very good stretch 4, but he's got definite bust potential.  At the end of the year, it should be a lot more clear.  I also haven't watched a complete game of Maccabi either, so I'm not as sure about him as I was about P-God last year.  Very high variance pick. He seems like a jump shooter through and through, but he can do a little pop out shot as a post move with his back to the basket.  Also, he's a lot quicker than I thought he was, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be able to drive.  He also can't rebound all that well due to his strength, but he has 9'3" standing reach.

Everything with him is like "he can do this, but can't do this" or vice versa.  He needs to put on a ton of muscle and get his BBIQ up.

[PhoSita]

Jaylen Brown reminds me of guys like Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Dwyane Wade, and -- less flattering comps -- Tony Wroten, Terrence Williams, and Shabazz Muhammad.

Basically, I feel confident watching him that he'll be a scorer who can get to the rim.  He looks like he's got an NBA body already, he moves well, and he looks like he has a pretty good handle.  He'll probably rebound well for his size.

Main questions are, can he defend, can he pass, and can he shoot?  Answer yes to at least two of those questions and he's probably a very good player.  If not, well ... borderline rotation player.

[Boris Badenov]

If we end up at #3 or #4 I wouldn't be surprised to see Danny trade down a few slots.

Suppose DEN wants to move up. They offer #7 and Gallo for #3 and AB (who projects well next to Mudiay, because AB can shoot 3s and defend both backcourt spots). Maybe we throw in another pick.

[Big333223]

Is Skal totally off the radar now with the underwhelming season he's had? I still like the idea of a guy with his athleticism, shotblocking, and shooting ability. But a 7 footer who can't rebound is usually a red flag.

[PhoSita]

If we end up at #3 or #4 I wouldn't be surprised to see Danny trade down a few slots.

Suppose DEN wants to move up. They offer #7 and Gallo for #3 and AB (who projects well next to Mudiay, because AB can shoot 3s and defend both backcourt spots). Maybe we throw in another pick.

I could see that happening.  If that happens it'll signal Ainge's determination that there's not a lot of difference in the caliber of prospects around 3/4 versus the back end of the top 10.  In that sense, I hope it doesn't happen that way. 

[chilidawg]

Is Skal totally off the radar now with the underwhelming season he's had? I still like the idea of a guy with his athleticism, shotblocking, and shooting ability. But a 7 footer who can't rebound is usually a red flag.

A little early to write him off completely, but early returns aren't good.  I read something the other day from Coach Cal saying he should stay another year, and I'm thinking that's going to be his most likely course.

[obnoxiousmime]

It will be a lot less disappointing if you just consider the pick to be top 6 at least. Just take the lottery as a bonus. We're guaranteed at least the 6th pick currently, but odds are it will be 4-5.

Does anyone remember when Towns started rising up boards? I know Okafor was always the early favorite but I never thought he was going to be good. The scouting report, even when he was ranked first, was not kind and we're basically seeing how accurate it was now.

It would be interesting to know if prospects suddenly skyrocket to the top this late in the basketball season. Who are the current candidates for a big jump? Anybody? Please let there be somebody.