If No One Bites Danny got some 'splainin to do

[GreenWarrior]

So your analysis is this:

Let's ignore all future draft picks we still have at our disposal. Trading for draft picks is worthless.

Got it.

He's not saying that....He's saying that if Danny has all those draft picks on draft day he would be at a disadvantage in trading them. He would likely get low-ball offers. This sounds reasonable. He also wonders what would become of those second round picks? send them overseas, trade for more 2nd rounders?
We got stuck with all three first rounders this year because GM's weren't willing to trade for what Danny thought were reasonable offers. This is a real possibility for next year as well.

As for letting Danny being let go because of this happening is more than extreme because he has the 1st pick from Nets this year and the choice of switching places next year, plus Dallas' future first. Any other first rounders I'm missing?

I know what he's saying, but he's couching it within the frames of "if Ainge doesn't get a trade happening with these picks [take it to mean a partner who's willing to give value] then Ainge should be let go because he failed".

So you can easily extrapolate from that having an abundance of picks is of no use, and if Ainge doesn't cash in by this year's draft, then he's failed as well... let's give him the boot. And that's just a terrible way at looking at things, particularly when you consider that most of the draft picks we have acquired can be considered the cherry on top because we have already gained other assets that have been of use/value to us in those trades as it is.

how can you not look at it as a failure. we acquired a plethora of draft picks, so much that no one believes we will actually use them - because we can't.

the sole purpose of acquiring these draft picks was to trade most if not all of 'em. if Danny's plan is to hold onto the Nets pick this yr. to see if he lands Simmons is awful risky...the pick holds more value now as an unknown commodity than it does if we wait and find out it's not Simmons.

[GreenWarrior]

So have patience and trust in Ainge's plan. It will come together. Just give it time.

ohh I have patience. I'm just pointing out that Danny has put himself in a position of if it works out, then he'll look like a genius....all while at a disadvantage. and if not, he looks pretty bad...all while at a disadvantage, which he put himself in.   

[Ilikesports17]

Sure, GMs knowing that you have to trade someone/something always means that you have to trade it for pennies on the dollar, that's why the Wolves got shafted in the Love trade

In a vacuum, a team could low ball Danny in trades involving our picks.  But come draft night, if they really want to take a guy with Danny's pick, they'll offer him just as much as they will the team's just in front of and just behind us.  And if a couple of teams want the pick, the teams will give more than fair value in a trade.

I get that we can't use all the picks, but the issue is really overstated, especially since most of the mid-to-late 2nds will probably never play a single NBA minute (and will be picks like Colton Iverson and Marcus Thornton who will play overseas next year, and probably for their entire careers)

The Love trade was kinda unique because the Cavs were under just as much pressure to trade for love as the wolves were under pressure to trade love.

There's similar pressure on GMs to trade up in a draft (ex: Danny last year, Bulls in 2014), and I wouldn't call it that unique, the interest from the Warriors made it a bit of a bidding war (and the Wolves did a great job of playing them against each other)

Actually, the Bulls in 2014 are a good parallel to us this year: everyone knew that they had to consolidate picks to keep a Max salary slot open, but that didn't make them settle for pennies on the dollar

I felt like Chicago overpaid, and I disagree on Cleveland. I think Lebron demanded that they get Love and I think Minny knew it and thats why Minnesota got a great deal.

I dont entirely disagree with the premise of what you are saying. I just think that was a unique situation.

Also Id argue that Gary Harris(19) and Jusuf Nurkic(16) and a second for Doug McDermott is an overpay.

[BudweiserCeltic]

So your analysis is this:

Let's ignore all future draft picks we still have at our disposal. Trading for draft picks is worthless.

Got it.

He's not saying that....He's saying that if Danny has all those draft picks on draft day he would be at a disadvantage in trading them. He would likely get low-ball offers. This sounds reasonable. He also wonders what would become of those second round picks? send them overseas, trade for more 2nd rounders?
We got stuck with all three first rounders this year because GM's weren't willing to trade for what Danny thought were reasonable offers. This is a real possibility for next year as well.

As for letting Danny being let go because of this happening is more than extreme because he has the 1st pick from Nets this year and the choice of switching places next year, plus Dallas' future first. Any other first rounders I'm missing?

I know what he's saying, but he's couching it within the frames of "if Ainge doesn't get a trade happening with these picks [take it to mean a partner who's willing to give value] then Ainge should be let go because he failed".

So you can easily extrapolate from that having an abundance of picks is of no use, and if Ainge doesn't cash in by this year's draft, then he's failed as well... let's give him the boot. And that's just a terrible way at looking at things, particularly when you consider that most of the draft picks we have acquired can be considered the cherry on top because we have already gained other assets that have been of use/value to us in those trades as it is.

how can you not look at it as a failure. we acquired a plethora of draft picks, so much that no one believes we will actually use them - because we can't.

the sole purpose of acquiring these draft picks was to trade most if not all of 'em. if Danny's plan is to hold onto the Nets pick this yr. to see if he lands Simmons is awful risky...the pick holds more value now as an unknown commodity than it does if we wait and find out it's not Simmons.

Let's look at the picks and trades:

2016 Brooklyn Pick, looking like a top lotto pick right now. If Ainge doesn't trade it he's failed?

2016 Dallas Pick (still not sure if we'll even have it this year, can someone find out if we're obligated to receive the pick if it falls outside the protected range?). Well at least we gained Crowder.

2016 Minnesota (which may turn into 2nd rounders depending) - We traded the awesome Brandan Wright for it. OK...

And ours of course.

Then we have an abundance of late 2nd round draft picks that don't have a lot of value as it is, and you're worried about whether he'll be able to consolidate those into something of value? I'm not even going to look into the details of those trades because honestly not worth getting into.

The only pick there that might have value is Philadelphia's.

I think you're over-thinking something that's really not much of a problem. Those second rounders other than Philadelphia's are of little importance or value as it is.

Keep in mind we only have 9 players signed through next year, and that includes James Young. We might not be able to keep ALL the picks (most of which are worthless anyways), but we have room for them at worst case scenario.

Anyways, I'm not losing sleep over Ainge managing to consolidate these assets or not.

[Ilikesports17]

So have patience and trust in Ainge's plan. It will come together. Just give it time.

ohh I have patience. I'm just pointing out that Danny has put himself in a position of if it works out, then he'll look like a genius....all while at a disadvantage. and if not, he looks pretty bad...all while at a disadvantage, which he put himself in.

Not really I mean if nothing becomes available he will just take a player in the top 5, then reup Amir and Jerebko and then move on from Turner Sully and our other expirings while hopefully our younger players step into those holes and we get to continue to slowly improve while continuing to look for that star available in trades.

Also right now everyone has cap because of an escalating cap, but in a few years that wont be the case and having cap will go back to being really valuable and so if Ainge can continue to kick his assets down the road we could cash in later.

Hes built the rebuild  so there is no one period where he HAS to make a move.

I think Ideally for Ainge we would have added 1 big piece this past summer and one this coming summer and that would be the rebuild. instead we are still 2 pieces away.

[BballTim]

So your analysis is this:

Let's ignore all future draft picks we still have at our disposal. Trading for draft picks is worthless.

Got it.

He's not saying that....He's saying that if Danny has all those draft picks on draft day he would be at a disadvantage in trading them. He would likely get low-ball offers. This sounds reasonable. He also wonders what would become of those second round picks? send them overseas, trade for more 2nd rounders?
We got stuck with all three first rounders this year because GM's weren't willing to trade for what Danny thought were reasonable offers. This is a real possibility for next year as well.

  At the end of the day, though, the fact that Danny didn't make a deal was unrelated to his having an overabundance of draft picks. He may have wanted to make the trade, but he obviously didn't have to, so trading partners didn't have the leverage over him that people are claiming. Whoever Danny was negotiating with may have originally asked for the moon in a trade, but at some point in time they got Danny's final offer. The fact that they didn't make the trade implies that they weren't even able to get Danny to offer what they'd consider to enough value to make the trade. Obviously they weren't able to use Danny's supposed position of weakness to their advantage.

[Evantime34]

In the same way that everyone knows we need to trade picks, there will be multiple teams on draft night that everyone knows is trying to acquire picks.

There are a lot of teams without draft picks in a year where the ratio of draft pick salary to the overall cap is the lowest its ever been. Teams will line up for our picks.

[footey]

Yeah, I'm sure Danny is sweating his job out.

[colincb]

Look at the bright side. With 3 centers, the Sixers are going to have to give away one of them for pennies on the dollar too. Or not.

7 teams have no first rounders including both NY teams and two of the Texas teams who have very deep pockets. 3 teams have no picks at all. You think they'd be under some pressure to not get too cute, but probably not. Danny could use the picks to sweeten trades too, but who would want them?

He could corner the market on young international players in a draft and stash strategy, but they would never come here. He could get rid of some of the underperformers on the roster, but there are none. Probably forgetting something, but I'm not that concerned about getting optimal value as I am about getting better.

As for Danny? Though considered one of the top GMs in the game, he's gone for sure with a lot of CBloggers lining up for his job next July.

[Celtics17]

The Celtics as currently constructed are a very young team. Ainge is going to keep them that way until he can nab a rising star, maybe by overpaying, and then use some picks to get another young player who becomes a star. If he can simply make a shrewd trade or two in addition to these moves he has created a young team with options and future picks and he may very well be on his way to creating a new Celtics dynasty. He needs to really make this next draft class his best and then land a player through free agency but it's a possibility.

[hwangjini_1]

Look at the bright side. With 3 centers, the Sixers are going to have to give away one of them for pennies on the dollar too. Or not.

7 teams have no first rounders including both NY teams and two of the Texas teams who have very deep pockets. 3 teams have no picks at all. You think they'd be under some pressure to not get too cute, but probably not. Danny could use the picks to sweeten trades too, but who would want them?

He could corner the market on young international players in a draft and stash strategy, but they would never come here. He could get rid of some of the underperformers on the roster, but there are none. Probably forgetting something, but I'm not that concerned about getting optimal value as I am about getting better.

As for Danny? Though considered one of the top GMs in the game, he's gone for sure with a lot of CBloggers lining up for his job next July.

hey, i already sent in my application. 

[nickagneta]

So have patience and trust in Ainge's plan. It will come together. Just give it time.

ohh I have patience. I'm just pointing out that Danny has put himself in a position of if it works out, then he'll look like a genius....all while at a disadvantage. and if not, he looks pretty bad...all while at a disadvantage, which he put himself in.

Not seeing where Ainge has put himself at a disadvantage. He basically owns a really bad team's first round picks for the next three years. He has other first rounders that he can use in trades, not necessarily draft day trades, with players to improve the roster. He has tremendous cap flexibility.

Your assumption that other teams are going to look at the Celtics as having to trade all these picks is misguided. If anything there are teams that don't have a lot of picks that will be looking at the Celtics as a way to get back into the first round or high second round of drafts and will overpay for that.

And if Ainge has to use the picks, he increases his chances of finding a gem late because he has so many shots at picking players, it increases the chance of finding someone special.

As others have mentioned, that Philly 2nd round pick is extremely valuable as Danny could end up picking the best player that is under contract in overseas that can't come over for a few years, much like Nikola Pekovic , Marc Gasol, or Bojan Bogdanovic, players that wouldn't come over unless they could be offered more than the rookie scale so the second round is the best place to draft them.

[GreenFaith1819]

Danny just needs to remain patient and move when it benefits US.

WE are the ones with good (sometimes VERY good) players that play hard.

WE are the ones with these same players on GREAT contracts.

WE are the ones with numerous picks.

WE are the ones with a young and growing team.

WE are the ones with a fine coach that maximizes his talent.

SOMETHING is bound to break for us SOONER than later.

[Alleyoopster]

Danny just needs to remain patient and move when it benefits US.

WE are the ones with good (sometimes VERY good) players that play hard.

WE are the ones with these same players on GREAT contracts.

WE are the ones with numerous picks.

WE are the ones with a young and growing team.

WE are the ones with a fine coach that maximizes his talent.

SOMETHING is bound to break for us SOONER than later.

Stop being so optimistic...Remember this is CB...that sort of talk ain't allowed   

[incoherent]

The OP vastly underrates Ainge and even goes as far to say that Danny should be fired in the offseason if no moves are made.

The idea that Ainge, who is clearly one of the best GMs in the league, should be fired because he has gathered up to many assets is undeniably stupid.