ESPN Ranks Smart and the Other Sophs

[colincb]

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14472833/ranking-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-2015-16-sophomores-future-potential-nba

FWIW. It's "Insider"/paid content, so here's the relevant part for us that I'm willing to post. Chad Ford is an eyes guy who talks to NBA execs. Kevin Pelton is an advanced stats guru. Not surprised at Smart's ranking, whom I liked as a Cs' target as he had a very good rookie year measured by advanced stats, but has missed over half the 2015-16 season so far.  I was not high on LaVine or Gordon and they seem to be proving me wrong. Ford placed Parker at 2 based on future potential. Noel was ranked 8th by both and neither had Randle in their top 10.

The fifth soph

Pelton: I have the third point guard you mentioned, Smart. Before the season, I probably would have had Smart second after Wiggins. He was an excellent defender for a rookie and ultimately I think his athleticism is going to convert into offensive results. That hasn't happened yet in part because of injuries.

But Smart's ability to stay healthy playing his frenetic style is something of a long-term concern, and his shot selection remains abysmal. So he drops to the fifth spot on my list.

Ford: Yeah, I was a big Smart fan before the draft and I remain one. He was an elite defender as a rookie and a terrible offensive player. I'm not sure he'll ever be a great passer or shooter. But Smart plays so hard and with so much competitiveness, I think he'll keep working until he's a strong offensive player.

I have Capela at No. 5.

Rankings
Ford/Pelton
1 Wiggins/Wiggins
2 Parker/Capela
3 LaVine/LaVine
4 Exum/Payton
5 Capela/Smart
6 Smart/Nurkic
7 Payton/Gordon
8 Noel/Noel
9 Gordon/Mirotic
10 Mirotic/Parker

[esel1000]

How is Exum ranked 4th he hasn't even had a sophomore season?

[loco_91]

Zack LaVine had negative winshares as a rookie. How can anyone rank him above Smart with a straight face?

I think Smart is a clear #2 in the class right now.

[colincb]

How is Exum ranked 4th he hasn't even had a sophomore season?

"Potential." Pelton didn't have him in his top 10 and he's more performance oriented than Ford.

[manl_lui]

I kinda agree with this assessment. Smart needs to stay healthy and needs to learn how to play offense a bit better. Other than that I love what he brings to the table with his elite defense. But first thing's first, he MUST absolutely stay healthy in the long term

[colincb]

Zack LaVine had negative winshares as a rookie. How can anyone rank him above Smart with a straight face?

I think Smart is a clear #2 in the class right now.

He was as a rookie. LaVine's come a long way this year and Smart's durability is being questioned given his very aggressive style. I loved the dunk against the Lakers and hated the fall for example.

The reality is that Smart has a long way to go as do all of these guys and he needs to fix his shot selection first and foremost.

[MJohnnyboy]

Looks like Ford's rankings are based on potential. He may as well throw Embiid in there at #11.

[Ilikesports17]

Both have Noel at 8. Below smart.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I'm a big fan of Smart, but there are a lot of those guys in the list that have leap-frogged him at the moment... but if Smart's shot selection improves he'll easily overtake most of them. That's the big problem for Smart, the shot selection.

I'm not worried about his health at all at the moment.

I think Payton and Gordon are not being looked at honestly enough. I think Capela is getting too much attention for what he'll ultimately become. For all the trash these guys are talking about Parker, he's actually putting a very solid season for himself. His defense is worrying, particularly at the PF position, but I think he's playing very well for a guy just coming off an ACL tear.

Exum? Come on. There's potential, but there's at least need to be some substantiated Sophomore play to warrant his inclusion.

Interesting that they view Noel so low, while most around would put him ahead of Smart.

Lastly Mirotic is the one closest to his finished form, so it seems appropriately ranked there... or I'd even consider leaving him off the list all together.

Not a fan of his defense, but I'd think Randle warranted a bit of a look in this list.

Also interesting that Jordan Clarkson didn't make the list either, he's older than most so that might play a bit into it.

[Ilikesports17]

I'm a big fan of Smart, but there are a lot of those guys in the list that have leap-frogged him at the moment... but if Smart's shot selection improves he'll easily overtake most of them. That's the big problem for Smart, the shot selection.

I'm not worried about his health at all at the moment.

I think Payton and Gordon are not being looked at honestly enough. I think Capela is getting too much attention for what he'll ultimately become. For all the trash these guys are talking about Parker, he's actually putting a very solid season for himself. His defense is worrying, particularly at the PF position, but I think he's playing very well for a guy just coming off an ACL tear.

Exum? Come on. There's potential, but there's at least need to be some substantiated Sophomore play to warrant his inclusion.

Interesting that they view Noel so low, while most around would put him ahead of Smart.

Lastly Mirotic is the one closest to his finished form, so it seems appropriately ranked there... or I'd even consider leaving him off the list all together.

Not a fan of his defense, but I'd think Randle warranted a bit of a look in this list.

Also interesting that Jordan Clarkson didn't make the list either, he's older than most so that might play a bit into it.

I assume the qualified randle as a rookie.

It is hard to tell though because they included both Noel and Exum so I have no idea what their standard for sophomore is.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I'm a big fan of Smart, but there are a lot of those guys in the list that have leap-frogged him at the moment... but if Smart's shot selection improves he'll easily overtake most of them. That's the big problem for Smart, the shot selection.

I'm not worried about his health at all at the moment.

I think Payton and Gordon are not being looked at honestly enough. I think Capela is getting too much attention for what he'll ultimately become. For all the trash these guys are talking about Parker, he's actually putting a very solid season for himself. His defense is worrying, particularly at the PF position, but I think he's playing very well for a guy just coming off an ACL tear.

Exum? Come on. There's potential, but there's at least need to be some substantiated Sophomore play to warrant his inclusion.

Interesting that they view Noel so low, while most around would put him ahead of Smart.

Lastly Mirotic is the one closest to his finished form, so it seems appropriately ranked there... or I'd even consider leaving him off the list all together.

Not a fan of his defense, but I'd think Randle warranted a bit of a look in this list.

Also interesting that Jordan Clarkson didn't make the list either, he's older than most so that might play a bit into it.

I assume the qualified randle as a rookie.

It is hard to tell though because they included both Noel and Exum so I have no idea what their standard for sophomore is.

That's true, was Randle included somewhere or mentioned in the rookies list they prepared previously? That might give some insight.

[Eddie20]

I'm a big fan of Smart, but there are a lot of those guys in the list that have leap-frogged him at the moment... but if Smart's shot selection improves he'll easily overtake most of them. That's the big problem for Smart, the shot selection.

I'm not worried about his health at all at the moment.

I think Payton and Gordon are not being looked at honestly enough. I think Capela is getting too much attention for what he'll ultimately become. For all the trash these guys are talking about Parker, he's actually putting a very solid season for himself. His defense is worrying, particularly at the PF position, but I think he's playing very well for a guy just coming off an ACL tear.

Exum? Come on. There's potential, but there's at least need to be some substantiated Sophomore play to warrant his inclusion.

Interesting that they view Noel so low, while most around would put him ahead of Smart.

Lastly Mirotic is the one closest to his finished form, so it seems appropriately ranked there... or I'd even consider leaving him off the list all together.

Not a fan of his defense, but I'd think Randle warranted a bit of a look in this list.

Also interesting that Jordan Clarkson didn't make the list either, he's older than most so that might play a bit into it.

I assume the qualified randle as a rookie.

It is hard to tell though because they included both Noel and Exum so I have no idea what their standard for sophomore is.

That's true, was Randle included somewhere or mentioned in the rookies list they prepared previously? That might give some insight.

Pelton is a big metrics guy and Randle scores poorly there.

Ford:

I also passed on Julius Randle, T.J. Warren, Gary Harris and Jordan Clarkson. There's potential depth from this draft.

[loco_91]

Zack LaVine had negative winshares as a rookie. How can anyone rank him above Smart with a straight face?

I think Smart is a clear #2 in the class right now.

He was as a rookie. LaVine's come a long way this year and Smart's durability is being questioned given his very aggressive style. I loved the dunk against the Lakers and hated the fall for example.

The reality is that Smart has a long way to go as do all of these guys and he needs to fix his shot selection first and foremost.

Lavine's stats don't look significantly better this year than last. Is it commonly thought that he's made a big leap? I haven't watched him at all this year. Is his defense perceived to have improved?

I can't help thinking that a good part of Lavine's #3 rating is his dunk contest performance. And none of Smart's injuries have had the potential to become chronic, so I think it's overreacting to drop him so far. I'd be more worried about Lavine's health honestly-- he's a pogo stick.

[LarBrd33]

How much did Ainge pay them to write that? 

Lol... interesting rankings.

I actually think Smart's ranking is going to be accurate... 5-8.   But I'm not sure who the 4-7 players will be that end up better than him.

[Snakehead]

Smart is the best defensive guard at his experience level I have seen.... maybe ever.  Right up with the very best.

Exum at 4th.... c'mon.