Should Kelly and Lee continue to start?

[BudweiserCeltic]

Sit Lee.  He's been productive but, unsurprisingly, he doesn't actually make the team better.  Zeller is better.

Another thing, though it might be the case of him playing with less quality players than Lee, but this hasn't been all that truthful this year.

Our offense with Zeller has been slightly better, though not good and our defense has been worse by a wider margin than with Lee.

Could be a function of the quality of teammates, but so far for this year I think it's been understated how poorly in the scheme of things Zeller has looked for us particularly in the defensive end.

This not to say that I'm not ready to give him a better shot and trying to fade Lee away from the rotation (though I'm still hopeful Lee has or will have something to offer going forward, and I'm of mind that in the playoffs he might be one of our most productive bigs if we get there).

[jpotter33]

I'd like to see Amir/Olynyk start, or at least Olynyk get big minutes for four to five games in a row. I have a suspicion that KO's numbers will increase dramatically with his minutes, and I think his confidence and aggressiveness would be much better with consistent big minutes, too.

[max215]

Kelly can, not Lee.

[PhoSita]

Sit Lee.  He's been productive but, unsurprisingly, he doesn't actually make the team better.  Zeller is better.

 it might be the case of him playing with less quality players than Lee, but this hasn't been all that truthful this year.

Our offense with Zeller has been slightly better, though not good and our defense has been worse by a wider margin than with Lee.

Zeller hasn't gotten enough run this year for those numbers to mean much.

TZ helped the team win games last year.  He was one of the most consistently productive players.  That means more to me than what he's done playing less than 10 minutes per game this year.  Especially since his longest stints of playing time have come next to David Lee.


The way I feel about Lee is similar to how I feel about Turner.  He has individual possessions where he makes a really fun / exciting play.  A spin move in the post that turns into a lefty hook, or he grabs his own miss with a lightning quick second effort and finishes.  Occasionally he'll make a really nice pass.

All of that has a tendency to obscure the fact that, on the whole, his fit in our offense is not ideal.  You can tolerate that on your bench if you need scoring and you don't have better options.  I think the Celts have better options, at least when it comes to Lee. 

Once Smart comes back, and as Hunter and Young grow in confidence, the team may have better options than Turner, as well.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Sit Lee.  He's been productive but, unsurprisingly, he doesn't actually make the team better.  Zeller is better.

 it might be the case of him playing with less quality players than Lee, but this hasn't been all that truthful this year.

Our offense with Zeller has been slightly better, though not good and our defense has been worse by a wider margin than with Lee.

Zeller hasn't gotten enough run this year for those numbers to mean much.

TZ helped the team win games last year.  He was one of the most consistently productive players.  That means more to me than what he's done playing less than 10 minutes per game this year.  Especially since his longest stints of playing time have come next to David Lee.

The analysis I made are sustained with Zeller in the floor without Lee.

Also, I have no problem with you putting more weight into what he did for us last year, whatever impact that may be, but at the same time you're dismissing players having poorer years than others. It happens all the time.

Lee himself has had better years in the past... should we put more weight on those?

Anyways, not saying that playing Zeller instead of Lee might not be a good idea. But, so far this year, minding the circumstances, it hasn't been true that Zeller has made this team better. Just the opposite.

Hopefully that won't be the case if given more playing time, but for now that's what we have.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Sit Lee.  He's been productive but, unsurprisingly, he doesn't actually make the team better.  Zeller is better.

 it might be the case of him playing with less quality players than Lee, but this hasn't been all that truthful this year.

Our offense with Zeller has been slightly better, though not good and our defense has been worse by a wider margin than with Lee.

Zeller hasn't gotten enough run this year for those numbers to mean much.

TZ helped the team win games last year.  He was one of the most consistently productive players.  That means more to me than what he's done playing less than 10 minutes per game this year.  Especially since his longest stints of playing time have come next to David Lee.


The way I feel about Lee is similar to how I feel about Turner.  He has individual possessions where he makes a really fun / exciting play.  A spin move in the post that turns into a lefty hook, or he grabs his own miss with a lightning quick second effort and finishes.  Occasionally he'll make a really nice pass.

All of that has a tendency to obscure the fact that, on the whole, his fit in our offense is not ideal.  You can tolerate that on your bench if you need scoring and you don't have better options.  I think the Celts have better options, at least when it comes to Lee. 

Once Smart comes back, and as Hunter and Young grow in confidence, the team may have better options than Turner, as well.

Let me respond to the rest of the post which you added as I replied to the previous portion.

Flashy or not it doesn't mean that them (Lee/Turner) haven't been better, so far, than the alternative. I think Turner, for example, sucks. But without Thomas on the floor and without Turner on the floor our team has been putrid offensively. Take this to mean, that Smart just isn't ready, so far, or capable of running the team. Hopefully that changes as I want to move away from Turner myself, but that's yet to happen.

On that same angle, Lee so far has been better for us than what Zeller has provided. Hopefully Zeller outgrows this stint, but he's been quite bad defensively for us while only providing very slight marginal improvement offensively.

[PhoSita]

Lee himself has had better years in the past... should we put more weight on those?

A couple things

(a) Lee has had better years in the past, but he was also younger then.  He's past his prime and on the decline.  Zeller should have at least a few years left before he experiences significant decline.

(b) As was discussed quite a bit around here when the team first traded for Lee, even when he was at his best statistically, there was plenty of evidence to suggest he wasn't actually as valuable a player as you might think.  His teams had a tendency to rebound better with him off the floor, and his teams have pretty much always been a lot better defensively without him.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Lee himself has had better years in the past... should we put more weight on those?

A couple things

(a) Lee has had better years in the past, but he was also younger then.  He's past his prime and on the decline.  Zeller should have at least a few years left before he experiences significant decline.

(b) As was discussed quite a bit around here when the team first traded for Lee, even when he was at his best statistically, there was plenty of evidence to suggest he wasn't actually as valuable a player as you might think.  His teams had a tendency to rebound better with him off the floor, and his teams have pretty much always been a lot better defensively without him.

1) I agree, even so what's happening this year should have more weight.

2) While all that may be true, and I agree with it, the reality is that he's been better at all of that than Zeller. I'm not comparing Lee vs. the rest of our bigs/team. I'm comparing him to the alternative of Zeller and what they've brought to the table within this team so far.

[PhoSita]

Flashy or not it doesn't mean that them (Lee/Turner) haven't been better, so far, than the alternative. I think Turner, for example, sucks. But without Thomas on the floor and without Turner on the floor our team has been putrid offensively. Take this to mean, that Smart just isn't ready, so far to be capable of running the team. Hopefully that changes as I want to move away from Turner myself, but that's yet to happen.

On that same angle, Lee so far has been better for us than what Zeller has provided. Hopefully Zeller outgrows this stint, but he's been quite bad defensively for us while only providing very slight marginal improvement offensively.

I don't disagree with anything you said.  I agree that the team needs Turner, still.  I hope that changes.

As for Lee versus Zeller, I maintain that Zeller hasn't gotten enough of an opportunity this year.  He started the season playing next to Lee, which was a horrible fit for a number of reasons, and has never really gotten a chance to settle into a role as a rim runner and occasional spot up shooter / passer that he excelled in last year. 

If Zeller has the chance, for at least 5-10 games, to play 15-20 minutes in lineups where the other "big" is a stretchy / mobile guy like Jerebko, Crowder, or Olynyk and he still doesn't really stand out, then I'd be willing to move on.

I also think in a big-picture sense it's better to play Zeller.  Lee is here for a one year pit stop to rebuild his value before he hits free agency.  I don't think anything he can do from here on out is going to really open anybody's eyes about his current value.  So, mission accomplished for him and his agent (except that he failed to really carve out a major role as he probably wanted).

Zeller is a restricted free agent and could very well re-sign here for reasonable money for the foreseeable future.  He was a useful piece last year and I expect that he could continue to be a useful piece for another 4-5 years.  Productive, competent seven foot centers don't grow on trees.  If the team no longer needs him at some point, there will probably be a team out there willing to give up significant value to get him. 

For all of those reasons, I'd much rather give the time to Zeller.

[sawick48]

Zeller is our best pnr big. ko is probably our 2nd best scorer but doesnt compliment IT well. Amir is probably our best defender, and Sully our best rebounder.  It's quite the problem to have.  Still not totally sure where Lee fits in.

Personally I'm a fan of balanced lineups so i think to do that you look offensively first, and find pairs of bigs and guards that can play together.  One obvious pairing is IT and Zeller in the pnr game.  another pair that SHOULD NOT play together is KO and IT.  therefore KO and Zeller should not play together, and Zellers time on the floor should only be during the times IT is on the floor (obviously, not 100% mirroring IT's minutes). 

After that it's just a matter of figuring out what to do with the 4s.  to me, KO is the big that needs more rim protecting help than TZ would, thus i'd stick Amir with KO, and that would be the pairing of bigs for Smart to use when he's running the point; which would leave Sully to pair with TZ for when IT runs the offense.

Thus Regis, my final answer: if you want to start IT, the bigs you start with him are Sully and Zeller.  If you want IT off the bench, start Smart and therefore KO and Amir with him (and personally, using IT off the bench seemed to bring us our most success last year so i don't see a reason to change that....not to mention it would help KO find a rythym/more minutes maybe).

dear god this was very similar to an LSAT puzzle....man i hated those...

[BudweiserCeltic]

Flashy or not it doesn't mean that them (Lee/Turner) haven't been better, so far, than the alternative. I think Turner, for example, sucks. But without Thomas on the floor and without Turner on the floor our team has been putrid offensively. Take this to mean, that Smart just isn't ready, so far to be capable of running the team. Hopefully that changes as I want to move away from Turner myself, but that's yet to happen.

On that same angle, Lee so far has been better for us than what Zeller has provided. Hopefully Zeller outgrows this stint, but he's been quite bad defensively for us while only providing very slight marginal improvement offensively.

I don't disagree with anything you said.  I agree that the team needs Turner, still.  I hope that changes.

As for Lee versus Zeller, I maintain that Zeller hasn't gotten enough of an opportunity this year.  He started the season playing next to Lee, which was a horrible fit for a number of reasons, and has never really gotten a chance to settle into a role as a rim runner and occasional spot up shooter / passer that he excelled in last year. 

If Zeller has the chance, for at least 5-10 games, to play 15-20 minutes in lineups where the other "big" is a stretchy / mobile guy like Jerebko, Crowder, or Olynyk and he still doesn't really stand out, then I'd be willing to move on.

I also think in a big-picture sense it's better to play Zeller.  Lee is here for a one year pit stop to rebuild his value before he hits free agency.  I don't think anything he can do from here on out is going to really open anybody's eyes about his current value.  So, mission accomplished for him and his agent (except that he failed to really carve out a major role as he probably wanted).

Zeller is a restricted free agent and could very well re-sign here for reasonable money for the foreseeable future.  He was a useful piece last year and I expect that he could continue to be a useful piece for another 4-5 years.  Productive, competent seven foot centers don't grow on trees.  If the team no longer needs him at some point, there will probably be a team out there willing to give up significant value to get him. 

For all of those reasons, I'd much rather give the time to Zeller.

It's not that I don't agree with much of what you're trying to say overall... it simply hasn't happened yet. We can be hopeful that things change with repetition, as it always does one way or another, but I think we shouldn't be too quick to anoint Zeller and dismiss Lee. I mean, Zeller was given the starter role right off the bat and he failed miserably independent of Lee being there or not (he's been as bad without him).

I was merely pointing out, that at least so far, Zeller hasn't been making our team better. That's all, despite agreeing, to a degree, that I'd like to see him get more of a chance than he's gotten (even if it's unearned), but by the same token I still think Lee can be useful for us in the context of getting to the playoffs and what he might bring there.

But big picture? Sure, let's move on from Lee. I have no problem with that.

I'll just point out, that while I agree sample size might not be the best (1/3 into the season though I'll also point out that he's played substantially more without Lee) and I also mentioned that part of it could be quality of teammates (meaningless minutes at end of games), it's still true that Zeller hasn't been good for us this year. It's what we have.

He'll have to work to distance himself, he's failed at the task.

[KeepRondo]

Flashy or not it doesn't mean that them (Lee/Turner) haven't been better, so far, than the alternative. I think Turner, for example, sucks. But without Thomas on the floor and without Turner on the floor our team has been putrid offensively. Take this to mean, that Smart just isn't ready, so far to be capable of running the team. Hopefully that changes as I want to move away from Turner myself, but that's yet to happen.

On that same angle, Lee so far has been better for us than what Zeller has provided. Hopefully Zeller outgrows this stint, but he's been quite bad defensively for us while only providing very slight marginal improvement offensively.

I don't disagree with anything you said.  I agree that the team needs Turner, still.  I hope that changes.

As for Lee versus Zeller, I maintain that Zeller hasn't gotten enough of an opportunity this year.  He started the season playing next to Lee, which was a horrible fit for a number of reasons, and has never really gotten a chance to settle into a role as a rim runner and occasional spot up shooter / passer that he excelled in last year. 

If Zeller has the chance, for at least 5-10 games, to play 15-20 minutes in lineups where the other "big" is a stretchy / mobile guy like Jerebko, Crowder, or Olynyk and he still doesn't really stand out, then I'd be willing to move on.

I also think in a big-picture sense it's better to play Zeller.  Lee is here for a one year pit stop to rebuild his value before he hits free agency.  I don't think anything he can do from here on out is going to really open anybody's eyes about his current value.  So, mission accomplished for him and his agent (except that he failed to really carve out a major role as he probably wanted).

Zeller is a restricted free agent and could very well re-sign here for reasonable money for the foreseeable future.  He was a useful piece last year and I expect that he could continue to be a useful piece for another 4-5 years.  Productive, competent seven foot centers don't grow on trees.  If the team no longer needs him at some point, there will probably be a team out there willing to give up significant value to get him. 

For all of those reasons, I'd much rather give the time to Zeller.

Zeller is gone next year.

[PhoSita]

Zeller is gone next year.

Why?

Chances are it'll make more sense for the team to re-sign him than let him walk for nothing.  Like I said above, there will always be teams willing to give up assets to get a competent seven foot center who can give you solid play on both ends.

The only way I see Zeller leaving is if some other team makes a starter-caliber offer for him in free agency, which seems unlikely, especially if he continues to average well below 20 minutes per game.

[PhoSita]

I just wanted to pull this tidbit from Wjsy off the front page because it helps get to why I think Zeller is a much better fit for the team right now than Lee.

Here's why I love Tyler Zeller so much and why I hope that he gets more playing time going forward.  He's really versatile in pick-and-roll/pops because he can hit the mid-range and he's got an assortment of floaters and hooks for finishing around the rim.  That's what won him the starting job alongside Rajon Rondo last year.  However, his biggest strength might be the quickness that he makes decisions in the read-and-react.  If there's any space to get off a shot, he'll take it.

<I can't link the video from the front page because the forums censor part of the URL (g-f-y).  Check out the video in the front page article "Let It Fly">

That quick decision making and a clear understanding of what his (limited) role is in the offense, and an ability to be quite productive within that role, has a lot of value for this Celts team.  Whereas Lee has a tendency to bog things down, Zeller gets his without gumming up the works at all.  He actually creates space for teammates by threatening opponents with his rim running, finishing, and mid-range shot.

[Denis998]

start sully and amir, let Zeller get Lees mins. Cut Lee. Problem solved.