I've been thinking about this question for a while and tried to hold off attempting to answer it until a little more time passed. Couldn't hold off after Smart's exciting night against OKC. The answer to this question will change over the next 3-5 years, but it's still interesting to gauge how teams did about 16 months after the 2014 draft.
Here's my top 10:
1) Andrew Wiggins -- still looking like a stud, still has some questions, not much has changed. Haven't been able to watch much TWolves games over the last 90 or so regular season games, but it seems like Wiggins is a more aggressive scorer at this stage than some thought he could be, while not quite the all-around player (rebounds, assists, etc.). My guess is once he learns how to tally 20 points in his sleep, things like his rebounding average will go up.
2) Jabari Parker -- Parker's stock should have probably sunk after an ACL injury in just his first season, but when Parker's played ball, he's looked good, and no other rookie besides Wiggins has performed consistently head and shoulders above Parker to justify ignoring Parker's still-existent franchise player potential.
3) Marcus Smart -- this is where things become really interesting. There's a lot of contenders behind Wiggins and Parker for the third slot, but none have really separated themselves from one another. Here's my reasoning: guys like Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson have been phenomenal in the box score, but both are two years older than Smart and the latter plays on a pathetic team that gives him greater opportunity to shine. Dante Exum is going to miss his entire sophomore campaign and already has the dreaded "injury-prone" tag. If he didn't go down, I'd probably put him here. Aaron Gordon looks really good this season, but he almost never saw the court last year and he's still playing suspiciously low minutes for a guy who has supposedly great potential playing on a bad team. Payton can fill up the stat sheet and, unlike most others, has played consistent minutes since day 1. But, it's been on a very bad team; additionally, without a jumper, he can only be so effective in today's NBA. It was a difficult choice between Smart and Jusuf Nurkic, but Nurkic's significant injury bumps him down a peg. Smart, meanwhile, has earned a starting position on a playoff team, is recognized around the league to be a game-changing defensive player, and his offense looks like it's ready to come around. He's a capable long range shooter and is starting to show some of that skill going to the hoop that we heard about so much after drafting him. The dream of him being a 3-5x All-Star and perennial DPOY candidate is not dead by any means. That alone earns him the 3rd spot.
4) Jusuf Nurkic - going a bit out on a limb here to make things interesting. This kid's only 21 and has shown the ability to be a force on the boards and on the defensive side of the ball at the 5 spot. He has a lot of offensive skills too, and had some impressive nights on the offensive end. We'll see what he can do at full health.
5) Aaron Gordon -- Matrix-esque potential, but his offensive ability outside the paint is limited. So far his incredible ball-handling skills for a player his size haven't paid off. He's still young -- a bit younger than Smart, even -- but it's unclear if he's going to be Andrei Kirilenko or Shawn Marion. The former is still a great player to have -- even if you spend the #4 pick getting him -- but Gordon has some work to do in order to evolve into the elite talent some believe he can be. Again, accounting for Scott Skiles being Orlando's coach, I still don't understand why Gordon isn't playing more.
6) Dante Exum -- not much to say. Looked really good over the summer, earned the starting job last year (with defensive ability that was not talked about much before the draft), poised to take the next step. Just needs to get healthy.
7) Elfrid Payton -- young, starting, producing. So what's the problem? The same that kept Rondo from ever taking that final leap into top 5 player status, and one that made his recovery from ACL surgery incredibly difficult without being able to rely on his usual breathtaking athleticism: a jumper. Now, if Payton could ever become the player Rondo was in his prime, that's still worthy of being picked in the top 3. The trick? Reversing NBA trends back 5-6 years when a jumper wasn't as critical, and, surrounding himself with three future HOFs and one of the NBA's best low post defenders.
8 ) Rodney Hood -- I really like Hood, but he's 23. He's probably got 1-2 years left of growth left in him before he is what he is. Still, no one in Utah is complaining about adding a Luol Deng type on the wing with a better jump shot by using a non-lotto pick.
9) Jordan Clarkson -- probably going to catch heat from the "objective" crowd for putting Clarkson this low, but this seems fair to me. Got a lot of hype last year because he was the only thing Laker fans could cheer for. Tremendous ability to score the basketball and has versatile size, but there's not much else to love. He's a poor distributor with a terrible A/TO ratio, doesn't rebound the ball well for his size, and he's old for his class -- 23. Still gotta hand it to the Fakers for getting a really good player with the 46th pick.
10) Julius Randle -- this one was tough. Again getting a lot of hype because he's a Laker, which positively (for the Lakers) distorts the average fan's perception of him (tough not to think he's going to be a star when Dirk says he's going to be). Tons of offensive skills -- already one of the better distributing big men in the league -- and can hold his own on the boards. Not too worried about his shooting... most rookies don't shoot all that efficiently their first time around the block. But his defense is very concerning and the injury red flag he came into the league with is probably even more red after suffering a season-ending injury in just his first year. Still young -- 6 months younger than Smart -- so his potential earns him a temporary stay in the top 10.
Honorable mentions: McDermott, LaVine, TJ Warren, Gary Harris, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Guys who could have more of a say in this conversation 2-3 years from now: the honorable mentions + Embiid, Noah Vonleh, Dario Saric, James Young, Tyler Ennis, Bruno Caboclo, Mitch McGary, Nikola Jokic
Others whose stocks have risen but will probably never crack the top 10: Shabazz Napier, Kyle Anderson, KJ McDaniels, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, Markel Brown Dwight Powell.
What's your top ten?
