Interesting Bill Simmons' thought

[colincb]

Sixers. The Hinkie plan works because it fails,

They have the talent and money to become decent if they wanted to.

No they don't.

They have 2 players who don't complement each other and zilch otherwise on their roster as far as assets. Having money isn't much of an advantage with a lot of teams having cap room and much more desirable destinations.

I was struck about how negative Jared Dudley was on the Sixers during a podcast with Zach Lowe last summer. He was brutal and it sounded like it was a prevalent opinion among NBA players. Hinkie has a rep as a Richard it appears in his dealings with players and agents and on top of their losing culture, it sounds bleak. Who actually wants to play on the worst team in the NBA the last two years by 11 games to the next worst team and who is slotted to be last again this season by Vegas?

[slamtheking]

1A. take the Philly picks because they're guaranteed to suck for years.  no vet talent.  top prospect will miss yet another year to injury.  the other top 2 play the same position and 1 is All D/No O and the other is all O/No D.  no realistic hope to attract a meaningful FA.  not out of the question that their top young players could play out the QO to hit free agency sooner to leave that dumpster fire of a franchise.
1.B take the Nets because their top 3 players are an injury-plagued center, an over-the-hill ball hog SG and a decent-but-limited PF.  no draft picks to improve with.  No good young prospects to develop into a star.  not likely to land a meaningful FA

[Big333223]

The thing about Philly is that if they didn't have picks for the next 3 years, they would be switching gears to try to win more now. Saric is supposedly coming over next season and even though everyone will have money for free agency next season, the Sixers will have more and be able to overpay competent veterans.

There are a couple of avenues for that team to get better in the coming seasons, even without picks.

[GreenFaith1819]

When PP34 and KG were traded to BKN and we got the plethora of picks from BKN for them, Danny A wasn't my favorite GM at all at the time.

Looking back, this was a masterful move by him - IMO one of many.

While I hated to see them go, they both have sweetened their legacies AND allowed Danny and BOS to be in the driver's seat for team improvement for the next few years.

KG has enjoyed a hero's welcome in Minny, and will help Towns and Wiggins grow.

PP has shown WAS how to win, and is now the Clipper's best shot, IMO, to get a crack at the title.

Funny how things come full circle.

KG and Paul Pierce's choice to go through with the trade to BKN will reap huge benefits for us, I believe.

[MBunge]

I would go with the Nets because I can't imagine the tank is going to last longer than one more season in Philly.  Whether they get Simmons or not in the next draft, it's inconceivable that fans, media or ownership will tolerate another offseason where a 20 win team does nothing to get better or even tries to get worse.  The Nets on the other hand are going to be teetering on the edge of total collapse for the next three years.

Mike

[colincb]

The thing about Philly is that if they didn't have picks for the next 3 years, they would be switching gears to try to win more now. Saric is supposedly coming over next season and even though everyone will have money for free agency next season, the Sixers will have more and be able to overpay competent veterans.

There are a couple of avenues for that team to get better in the coming seasons, even without picks.

I wouldn't count on Saric coming over until 2017-18 to get out of a rookie contract:

So, this season, the Sixers will roll with a frontcourt of Noel and 2015 No. 3 overall selection Jahlil Okafor, thanks to Embiid’s unavailability as well as that of Dario Saric, the team’s other 2014 lottery pick. Attempts to negotiate a buyout of Saric's European deal this past summer didn't come off, and the Sixers may not see Saric for quite some time yet.

According to a source, Saric’s father, who acts as a de facto representative for his son, doesn’t want the Sixers close to Saric. When Hinkie traveled to Turkey to meet with Saric in the summer of 2014, he was given very little face time with him, at the father’s direction. If Saric waits until the 2017–18 season to come to the NBA, he’ll be able to sign a contract that is not subject to the rookie wage scale (in the same way Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic did). As much as Hinkie is playing the long game, having to wait three full seasons to get a first-round draft pick signed and on the floor sets back the program.

http://www.si.com/thecauldron/2015/10/16/philadelphia-76ers-sam-hinkie-joel-embiid-brett-brown-process

Who knows how good he'll be after 3 years in Europe either. I've thought the Sixers drafted him too high just because they knew they wouldn't have to have him on the roster to improve the team (and they nailed some concessions with the Magic who had telegraphed their anxiety to get Elfrid Payton). It worked out well enough as a draft deal, but I'd be surprised if Saric adds much if ever when he comes over and certainly not until two-three years after he comes.

[crimson_stallion]

I honestly think that Philly, Brooklyn and Dallas are the three most likely to be terrible 2-3 years from now. 

Philly

Noel is a defensive specialist with a horrible offensive game, and Okafor is an offensive specialist with a horrible defensive game.  Neither can hit a midrange jumper to save their life, so there is no court spacing. 

I think Michael-Carter Williams was the piece that gave them a chance.  with MCW/Noel/Okafor the 76ers were really only two positions away from having a decent starting lineup - and the bench can always be filled via free agency or trades easily enough.  By Trading out MCW they have set their rebuild back a good 1-2 years and pretty much screwed themselves. 

The chance of the sixers being competitive any time soon is now basically completely dependant on the recovery of Joel Embiid.  If he gets healthy and can make an impact next year, then Noel becomes expendable - they put him on the trading block and hope to get a couple of quality perimeter players back, then start building a roster.

If Embiid doesn't recover then the rebuild gets set back, and things start to get dangerous for the Sixers. 

This is officially the third year of Noel's contract, so pretty soon he's going to have an opportunity to walk away and sign with another team if he doesn't want to keep living through the nightmare that is Philly.  If an up and coming team (like the Celtics, Bucks, Knicks, Lakers) offer him a lucrative deal, then I think there's a good chance the does exactly that. 

This is where the 76ers approach to rebuilding becomes dangerous and risks falling apart.  When you remove absolutely every NBA player you have purely with the aim of being the worst team you can possibly be, then it's going to take you minimum 3 or 4 years to get back to relevance.  Those draft picks you sign in the first 1-2 years will start reaching the end of their rookie deals by that time, and there's a good chance they walk if you still suck by that point.  Nobody WANTS to play for a terrible team.


Brooklyn

The Nets really don't have anything promising.  Statistically, the Nets were at their best last year when Deron Williams was on the court - and when he wasn't they were terrible.  Now he's gone.  Brook Lopez and Theddeus Young are quality players, but neither is a superstar.  Also both are 27 years old - not young enough to form the basis of a 4-5 year rebuild. 

They don't have cap space, they don't have picks and they don't have young prospects with much upside, so they aren't in any position to speed up that rebuild either.

Thad Young is a good player, but far from a great one.  He can't be any more than your 3rd or 4th best player if you hope to be successful.   Not unless you have an incredibly deep team, which the Nets certainly do not.  That means they have to base their entire franchise around Lopez, a guy who has major deficiencies (e.g. rebounding) and liabilities (health). 

The position is pretty bleak for the Nets - if (by some chance) Embiid does come back strong, then the Nets could be a bottom 3 team in the league over the next 3 years. 


Mavs

The Mavs are looking pretty bad, but they do have one thing to their benefit and that is Dirk.  But if they want to take advantage of that, they need to move quickly.

As long as Dirk is on the Mav's, they are going to be looked at as a team with playoff aspirations.  Right now they have a ton of cap space, an owner wiling to spend, and Dirk.  That's enough to attract free agents - it was almost enough to attract DeAndre Jordan, after al, and it was enough to bring them Monta Ellis and Wesley Matthews.   

Ellis and Matthews are good players, and the still have Parsons too.  If the Mavs work hard from now until the start of the 2016/17 season, then they have enough talent on their roster to convince free agents to join their cause.  There is an outside chance that they can bring in their next franchise player via free agency and expedite their rebuild. That's really about their only chance at not sucking for years to come.  If they can't do that and strike out again (as with DJ) then they could be a pretty bad team.   

If they fail at that, then a core of Ellis/Matthews/Chandler is probably not enough to get them to the playoffs - but it's probably enough to prevent them from dropping in to the very bottom of the league. They'll probably be stuck in no mans land, and will need to decide whether to trade Ellis and Matthews (and build around Chandler) or to try to add to the core and stay competitive.  Either way it'll be ugly.


Charlotte

Charlotte had terrible ownership (sorry MJ) but they do have a bit of talent on the roster.  They won't be a good team any time soon, but I don't think they are bad enough (with Walker, MKG and Jefferson) to be bottom 5 bad.  I think they'll be one of those teams who keeps just missing the playoffs (9th - 11th seed).

[mgent]

I said Sixers, but then i wonder how many wins the Lakers can get.

[PhoSita]

I'd take the Knicks or Lakers, probably, but having the Nets' picks is not a bad place to be by any means.

I still think the Nets will spend big in free agency next summer and field a 30-40 win team in 2017 and 2018.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I honestly think that Philly, Brooklyn and Dallas are the three most likely to be terrible 2-3 years from now. 

Philly

Noel is a defensive specialist with a horrible offensive game, and Okafor is an offensive specialist with a horrible defensive game.  Neither can hit a midrange jumper to save their life, so there is no court spacing. 

I think Michael-Carter Williams was the piece that gave them a chance.  with MCW/Noel/Okafor the 76ers were really only two positions away from having a decent starting lineup - and the bench can always be filled via free agency or trades easily enough.  By Trading out MCW they have set their rebuild back a good 1-2 years and pretty much screwed themselves. 

The chance of the sixers being competitive any time soon is now basically completely dependant on the recovery of Joel Embiid.  If he gets healthy and can make an impact next year, then Noel becomes expendable - they put him on the trading block and hope to get a couple of quality perimeter players back, then start building a roster.

If Embiid doesn't recover then the rebuild gets set back, and things start to get dangerous for the Sixers. 

This is officially the third year of Noel's contract, so pretty soon he's going to have an opportunity to walk away and sign with another team if he doesn't want to keep living through the nightmare that is Philly.  If an up and coming team (like the Celtics, Bucks, Knicks, Lakers) offer him a lucrative deal, then I think there's a good chance the does exactly that. 

This is where the 76ers approach to rebuilding becomes dangerous and risks falling apart.  When you remove absolutely every NBA player you have purely with the aim of being the worst team you can possibly be, then it's going to take you minimum 3 or 4 years to get back to relevance.  Those draft picks you sign in the first 1-2 years will start reaching the end of their rookie deals by that time, and there's a good chance they walk if you still suck by that point.  Nobody WANTS to play for a terrible team.

1. Have you seen MCW shoot a basketball? He was our worst offensive player last year, and it was not close.

2. Do you understand how RFA works? The minimum time Noel will spend on the Sixers is 6 more years unless he decides to sign the one year tender. Something that has never happened when a player who is offered a max.

[Kane3387]

The team that has billy king as the GM.

[slamtheking]

I honestly think that Philly, Brooklyn and Dallas are the three most likely to be terrible 2-3 years from now. 

Philly

Noel is a defensive specialist with a horrible offensive game, and Okafor is an offensive specialist with a horrible defensive game.  Neither can hit a midrange jumper to save their life, so there is no court spacing. 

I think Michael-Carter Williams was the piece that gave them a chance.  with MCW/Noel/Okafor the 76ers were really only two positions away from having a decent starting lineup - and the bench can always be filled via free agency or trades easily enough.  By Trading out MCW they have set their rebuild back a good 1-2 years and pretty much screwed themselves. 

The chance of the sixers being competitive any time soon is now basically completely dependant on the recovery of Joel Embiid.  If he gets healthy and can make an impact next year, then Noel becomes expendable - they put him on the trading block and hope to get a couple of quality perimeter players back, then start building a roster.

If Embiid doesn't recover then the rebuild gets set back, and things start to get dangerous for the Sixers. 

This is officially the third year of Noel's contract, so pretty soon he's going to have an opportunity to walk away and sign with another team if he doesn't want to keep living through the nightmare that is Philly.  If an up and coming team (like the Celtics, Bucks, Knicks, Lakers) offer him a lucrative deal, then I think there's a good chance the does exactly that. 

This is where the 76ers approach to rebuilding becomes dangerous and risks falling apart.  When you remove absolutely every NBA player you have purely with the aim of being the worst team you can possibly be, then it's going to take you minimum 3 or 4 years to get back to relevance.  Those draft picks you sign in the first 1-2 years will start reaching the end of their rookie deals by that time, and there's a good chance they walk if you still suck by that point.  Nobody WANTS to play for a terrible team.

1. Have you seen MCW shoot a basketball? He was our worst offensive player last year, and it was not close.

2. Do you understand how RFA works? The minimum time Noel will spend on the Sixers is 6 more years unless he decides to sign the one year tender. Something that has never happened when a player who is offered a max.

keep telling yourself that while ignoring what Greg Monroe did this past season and he wasn't playing in the dumpster fire that is the Sixers franchise.

[KGs Knee]

I honestly think that Philly, Brooklyn and Dallas are the three most likely to be terrible 2-3 years from now. 

Philly

Noel is a defensive specialist with a horrible offensive game, and Okafor is an offensive specialist with a horrible defensive game.  Neither can hit a midrange jumper to save their life, so there is no court spacing. 

I think Michael-Carter Williams was the piece that gave them a chance.  with MCW/Noel/Okafor the 76ers were really only two positions away from having a decent starting lineup - and the bench can always be filled via free agency or trades easily enough.  By Trading out MCW they have set their rebuild back a good 1-2 years and pretty much screwed themselves. 

The chance of the sixers being competitive any time soon is now basically completely dependant on the recovery of Joel Embiid.  If he gets healthy and can make an impact next year, then Noel becomes expendable - they put him on the trading block and hope to get a couple of quality perimeter players back, then start building a roster.

If Embiid doesn't recover then the rebuild gets set back, and things start to get dangerous for the Sixers. 

This is officially the third year of Noel's contract, so pretty soon he's going to have an opportunity to walk away and sign with another team if he doesn't want to keep living through the nightmare that is Philly.  If an up and coming team (like the Celtics, Bucks, Knicks, Lakers) offer him a lucrative deal, then I think there's a good chance the does exactly that. 

This is where the 76ers approach to rebuilding becomes dangerous and risks falling apart.  When you remove absolutely every NBA player you have purely with the aim of being the worst team you can possibly be, then it's going to take you minimum 3 or 4 years to get back to relevance.  Those draft picks you sign in the first 1-2 years will start reaching the end of their rookie deals by that time, and there's a good chance they walk if you still suck by that point.  Nobody WANTS to play for a terrible team.

1. Have you seen MCW shoot a basketball? He was our worst offensive player last year, and it was not close.

2. Do you understand how RFA works? The minimum time Noel will spend on the Sixers is 6 more years unless he decides to sign the one year tender. Something that has never happened when a player who is offered a max.

keep telling yourself that while ignoring what Greg Monroe did this past season and he wasn't playing in the dumpster fire that is the Sixers franchise.

Well, technically, I don't think Monroe was ever offered a 'max' contract by Detroit. Bug I do think Noel could very easily end up wanting out of Philly badly enough to sign the QO, or threaten it enough to get a sign and trade somewhere he wants.