Crazy Tyler Zeller comparison

[crimson_stallion]

That comparison is laughable, and completely disrespectful to marc gasol.  Marc gasol is the best defensive center in the league, while Zeller is softer than tissues and ducks out of the way when opponents attack the basket.

Zeller is an offensive center that will disappear at times on the court. He will also often get out rebounded and pushed around. That is more Mark Blount than a defensive first, high low post capable, large, scrappy, load of a player that Marc Gasol is.

I think Marc Gasol is way overrated on these forums, and our own players (e.g. Zeller) typically get way underrated.  I'm not trying to say Zeller is on the level of Gasol right now, but comparing the two players based on past production, they are closer than you think.

1 - Rebounding
Zeller's rebounding production at the age of 24 and 25 have been dead on par with what Gasol put up at the same age. 

At 24 year old Zeller averaged 9.7 rebounds per 36 with a 15.1% rebound percentage and Gasol averaged 8.6 rebounds per 36 with a rebound rate of 14.7%.

At 25 years old Zeller averaged 9.7 rebounds per 36 with a 14.7% rebound percentage, and Gasol averaged 9.3 rebounds per 36 with a 15.1% rebound percentage. 

Those were the two best rebounding seasons of Gasol's career, and he has since regressed significantly as a rebounder.  To the point where his current career rebound average (8.4 Reb Per-36) and rebound percentage (13.8%) are now on par with the career numbers of Brook Lopez- a man who is regularly mocked for his laughably bad rebounding.

Unless Zeller's rebounding coincidentally shows a similarly significant drop off starting with next season (possible, but unlikely) you'll probably find Zeller will be a better career rebounder than Gasol.


2 - Offense
Marc Gasol is far from an elite / dominant offensive  player.  He's a skilled and versatile offensive player though, because he scores very well in the paint, has a very nice mid-range jumper, gets to the line very well, is a solid free throw shooter, and is a very good passer for a big.  Zeller can make all of those same claims.

At the age of 24 Gasol shot  67% inside 3 feet, 36% from 10-16 feet and 45% from 16 feet to the three point line.  He had a free throw rate of 56% and shot 73% from the line.  He averaged 2 assists per 36 minute and had an assist percentage of 9.7%.

Zeller at 24 shot 65% inside 3 feet, 52% from 10-16 feet and 47% from 16 feet to the three point line.  He had a free throw rate of 42% and shot 72% from the line.  He averaged 1.2 assists per 36 and had an assist percentage of 7.4%.

At 25 Gasol shot 70% inside 3 feet, 42% from 10-16 feet and 30% from 16 feet to the three point line.  He had a free throw rate of 58% and shot 67% from the line.  He averaged 2.4 assists per 36 minutes and had an assist percentage of 10.2%.   

Zeller at 25 shot 63% inside 3 feet, 60% from 10-16 feet and 48% from 16 feet to the three point line.  He had a free throw rate of 30% and shot 82% from the line.  He averaged 2.4 assists per 36 minutes and had an assist percentage of 10.8%.

Now looking at these numbers Gasol obviously shot at a high percentage inside the paint and also  got to the line more, but Zeller has clearly had a far superior midrange game.  As passers that have been pretty similar up to the age of 25.

It's also worth noting that the free throw rates Gasol put up in those two seasons were the highest of his career - after the age of 25 he never had a FTR above 42.8%, so that part of his game has regressed somewhat (though still very good).

Gasol's TS% was 59% at 24 years old and 62% at the age of 25.  Zeller's was 58% at the age of 25 and 60% at the age of 25.

In terms of pure scoring output, Gasol averaged 13.9 Points Per-36 when he was 24 years old and 14.7 Points Per-36 when he was 25.  Zeller averaged 13.7 Points Per-36 when he was 24 and 17.3 Points Per-36 when he was 25.

Offensively, Zeller is every bit as good an offensive player now as Gasol was when he was the same age.


3 - Defense
Unfortunately I can't pull up "Real Plus Minus" stats from when Gasol was 24/25 since the statistic was never recorded.

I can say that Marc Gasol was an elite defensive player in 2013/14 however, as his DRPM of +5.23 was good enough to rank him 4th overall in the league and 1st among centers.

However this year his numbers regressed significantly.  His DRPM dropped by around 3.5 points down to +1.91 which ranked him 57th over all and 20th among centers.  Ranking top 50 in the NBA is nothing to scoff at by any means, but it's a major drop from where he was - it's the difference between 'elite' and merely 'very good'.

Interestingly, Tyler Zeller has had good DRPM numbers in both of his last two seasons.  in 2013/14 he had a DRPM of +1.49 which ranked him 93rd overall and 29th among centers.  That's basically the top 25% percent of NBA players defensively.

In 2014/15 Zeller was similarly good, with his DRPM of +1.36 ranking him 87th overall and 30th among centers. 

Still clearly not as effective as Gasol defensively, but in 2014/15 he wasn't too far behind at all.

One thing we CAN compare from the age of 24/25 is shot blocking. 

Gasol averaged 1.3 blocks Per 36 (2.9% block percentage) at the age of 24, and 1.6 blocks per 36 (3.4% block percentage) at the age of 25.

By comparison Zeller averaged 1.3 Blocks Per 36 (3.0% Block Percentage) at the age of 24, and 1.1 Blocks Per 36 Minutes (2.3% Block Percentage) at the age of 25.   

Defensively Gasol is obviously the better player right now, but I'd love to see some advanced defensive stats from when Gasol was 24/25 (Def Rating, on/off or something) to compare against Zeller.  While Gasol would no doubt have better stats on that end than Zeller, I suspect the difference might not be as big as people think.


I think we should give the OP a break because if you look at these two guys closely, there are certainly a lot of statistical similarities.  I don't think the comparison is unreasonable and I certainly don't think it's insulting to Marc Gasol.  It wouldn't shock me to see Zeller one day be as good as Gasol overall - though I suspect Zeller's talented would lean a little more towards the offensive end.

[PhoSita]

Marc Gasol's not white.

A good comp for Tyler Zeller is Robin Lopez.

Marc Gasol?  No.  No.  Let's leave it at that.

Lopez is a great comp, but sort of in reverse. Zeller is a really skilled offensive Center, with limited defensive capabilities, and Lopez vice versa. Basically, they're both specialized, yet talented big men who should last in the league for a while. Overall, nice comp!

Inverse Robin Lopez already plays in the league and it happens to be his twin brother. For simplicity's sake, why not just call Zeller a poor man's Brook?

Marc Gasol is white, actually.  Not to make this thread about racial designations, but Spanish people are white / European.  While Marc and his brother might be called "Hispanic," the term has become associated with Spanish speaking people in general, including those of white descent and those of mixed descent.  My understanding is that Marc is of Iberian ancestry, which is to say he is Western European.  According to Wikipedia, Gasol is actually a name of German origin starting in Hamburg.

By the same token, Manu Ginobili, and the Pope, are both white, though they are South American.  They are of Italian descent.

Anyway, Tyler Zeller and Robin Lopez are both similar in their offensive skillset and rebounding ability.  Robin Lopez is a better defender and shot-blocker, and Tyler has more range and passing ability.  Overall, I think they're a very good comp in terms of role and value.

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

[crimson_stallion]

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

An interesting comparison, although here is another one:

Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT
Marc Gasol career per-36: 15.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.7 blk, 1.0 stl, 50.9% FG, 75.8% FT

Also remarkably similar, right?



The key distinction between Zeller and Lopez is that Zeller is already a better rebounder, and is a far better passer and mid-range shooter.

Zeller has averaged a very consistent 9.7 rebounds per 36 over his past two seasons, which is probably a far better indication of his rebounding ability than his career number (which was brought down by his poor rookie year numbers nested within a small overall sample size).   

So realistically, Zeller is probably a better rebounder right now than Marc Gasol and both of the Lopez twins.

The same phenomenon also brings down Zeller's offensive numbers.  He has averaged over 15 Points Per-36 and has shot >54% from the field in both of his past two seasons - once again his unimpressive rookie year (10.8 PP36 and 44% FG) drags down the career numbers and makes his play look much less impressive than it has actually been.

Over the past two seasons Zeller has averaged around 15 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 Blocks Per 36 while also shooting around 55% from the field and 75% from the line.  Those are very impressive numbers.

[littleteapot]

Watching Zeller last year it seemed like there were some bigs he coudln't box out and it hurt the team rebounding even if his was OK.

Also Zeller had a much higher rate of personal fouls so far in his career than Gasol ever has, which is part of the reason he didn't play that many minutes.

I think these are symptoms of the problem with Zeller - he is just not physical enough. Gasol is great at keeping whoever he wants out of the paint when he is on D. Zeller can't and sometimes it means he has to foul guys at the rim and sometimes it means that the team as a whole can't contain offensive rebounders and one of them swoops in for a board. This is why he will probably end up being a very good backup in a good frontcourt, or a starting center with some liabilities that never go away.

[Endless Paradise]

Marc Gasol's not white.

A good comp for Tyler Zeller is Robin Lopez.

Marc Gasol?  No.  No.  Let's leave it at that.

Lopez is a great comp, but sort of in reverse. Zeller is a really skilled offensive Center, with limited defensive capabilities, and Lopez vice versa. Basically, they're both specialized, yet talented big men who should last in the league for a while. Overall, nice comp!

Inverse Robin Lopez already plays in the league and it happens to be his twin brother. For simplicity's sake, why not just call Zeller a poor man's Brook?

Marc Gasol is white, actually.  Not to make this thread about racial designations, but Spanish people are white / European.  While Marc and his brother might be called "Hispanic," the term has become associated with Spanish speaking people in general, including those of white descent and those of mixed descent.  My understanding is that Marc is of Iberian ancestry, which is to say he is Western European.  According to Wikipedia, Gasol is actually a name of German origin starting in Hamburg.

By the same token, Manu Ginobili, and the Pope, are both white, though they are South American.  They are of Italian descent.

Anyway, Tyler Zeller and Robin Lopez are both similar in their offensive skillset and rebounding ability.  Robin Lopez is a better defender and shot-blocker, and Tyler has more range and passing ability.  Overall, I think they're a very good comp in terms of role and value.

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

Your face is an Iberian comparison for Robin Lopez.

[crimson_stallion]

Also Zeller had a much higher rate of personal fouls so far in his career than Gasol ever has, which is part of the reason he didn't play that many minutes.

Zeller has averaged 4.4 fouls per 36 over his first three seasons in the NBA, while Gasol averaged 3.7 fouls per 36 minutes over his first three seasons.

It;s certainly higher than Gasol's averages (and a bit on the high side in general) but I wouldn't describe it as 'much higher'.  It's really only a difference of a bit over 0.5 fouls per 36 minutes.

Gasol's foul rate dropped as his career went on and he learned to play defense without fouling, and I'm sure the same will happen with Zeller.

[PhoSita]

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

An interesting comparison, although here is another one:

Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT
Marc Gasol career per-36: 15.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 3.2 ast, 1.7 blk, 1.0 stl, 50.9% FG, 75.8% FT

Also remarkably similar, right?



The key distinction between Zeller and Lopez is that Zeller is already a better rebounder, and is a far better passer and mid-range shooter.

Zeller has averaged a very consistent 9.7 rebounds per 36 over his past two seasons, which is probably a far better indication of his rebounding ability than his career number (which was brought down by his poor rookie year numbers nested within a small overall sample size).   

So realistically, Zeller is probably a better rebounder right now than Marc Gasol and both of the Lopez twins.

The same phenomenon also brings down Zeller's offensive numbers.  He has averaged over 15 Points Per-36 and has shot >54% from the field in both of his past two seasons - once again his unimpressive rookie year (10.8 PP36 and 44% FG) drags down the career numbers and makes his play look much less impressive than it has actually been.

Over the past two seasons Zeller has averaged around 15 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 Blocks Per 36 while also shooting around 55% from the field and 75% from the line.  Those are very impressive numbers.

3.2 assists and a full steal. Significant difference.  Also Gasols career scoring average doesn't do justice to his current scoring ability

[PhoSita]

Marc Gasol's not white.

A good comp for Tyler Zeller is Robin Lopez.

Marc Gasol?  No.  No.  Let's leave it at that.

Lopez is a great comp, but sort of in reverse. Zeller is a really skilled offensive Center, with limited defensive capabilities, and Lopez vice versa. Basically, they're both specialized, yet talented big men who should last in the league for a while. Overall, nice comp!

Inverse Robin Lopez already plays in the league and it happens to be his twin brother. For simplicity's sake, why not just call Zeller a poor man's Brook?

Marc Gasol is white, actually.  Not to make this thread about racial designations, but Spanish people are white / European.  While Marc and his brother might be called "Hispanic," the term has become associated with Spanish speaking people in general, including those of white descent and those of mixed descent.  My understanding is that Marc is of Iberian ancestry, which is to say he is Western European.  According to Wikipedia, Gasol is actually a name of German origin starting in Hamburg.

By the same token, Manu Ginobili, and the Pope, are both white, though they are South American.  They are of Italian descent.

Anyway, Tyler Zeller and Robin Lopez are both similar in their offensive skillset and rebounding ability.  Robin Lopez is a better defender and shot-blocker, and Tyler has more range and passing ability.  Overall, I think they're a very good comp in terms of role and value.

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

Your face is an Iberian comparison for Robin Lopez.

Not sure what this means but thanks for the laugh

[trickybilly]

`Max deal for the Pope

[Endless Paradise]

Marc Gasol's not white.

A good comp for Tyler Zeller is Robin Lopez.

Marc Gasol?  No.  No.  Let's leave it at that.

Lopez is a great comp, but sort of in reverse. Zeller is a really skilled offensive Center, with limited defensive capabilities, and Lopez vice versa. Basically, they're both specialized, yet talented big men who should last in the league for a while. Overall, nice comp!

Inverse Robin Lopez already plays in the league and it happens to be his twin brother. For simplicity's sake, why not just call Zeller a poor man's Brook?

Marc Gasol is white, actually.  Not to make this thread about racial designations, but Spanish people are white / European.  While Marc and his brother might be called "Hispanic," the term has become associated with Spanish speaking people in general, including those of white descent and those of mixed descent.  My understanding is that Marc is of Iberian ancestry, which is to say he is Western European.  According to Wikipedia, Gasol is actually a name of German origin starting in Hamburg.

By the same token, Manu Ginobili, and the Pope, are both white, though they are South American.  They are of Italian descent.

Anyway, Tyler Zeller and Robin Lopez are both similar in their offensive skillset and rebounding ability.  Robin Lopez is a better defender and shot-blocker, and Tyler has more range and passing ability.  Overall, I think they're a very good comp in terms of role and value.

Tyler Zeller is a poor comparison for Brook Lopez because Brook is much more skilled offensively and has a nice back to the basket game.  GodZeller is a more of a rim runner, like Brook's twin brother.


Tyler Zeller career per-36:  13.8 points  8.9 reb  1.8 ast  1.2 blk  .5 stl  50.5% FG  77.6% FT
Robin Lopez career per-36: 13.9 pts  8.6 reb   .9 ast   2.0 blk   .5 stl   53.2% FG   75.9% FT

Remarkably close, actually.

Your face is an Iberian comparison for Robin Lopez.

Not sure what this means but thanks for the laugh

It doesn't mean anything, I just felt like saying that since I don't like posts that refute a point I've made. Glad to be of service.

[Celtics4ever]

I think the comparison is very green tinted.   I do not think he is near the comparison very much at all.   Could he hold Gasol's jock strap, I think not.

[PhoSita]

It doesn't mean anything, I just felt like saying that since I don't like posts that refute a point I've made. Glad to be of service.

 

[Kuberski33]

Marc Gasol, its more like Mark Blount

A Mark Blount who hustles.  Zeller is decent in his current role but he showed his true value vs Cleveland in the playoffs - when he wasn't much of a factor.  Average at best defensively and a below average rebounder for his position.  Offensively he's decent, especially for Brad's system.
 
But Gasol's a completely different class of player.

[More Banners]

He's more Battie than Blount.

[mmmmm]

Those were the two best rebounding seasons of Gasol's career, and he has since regressed significantly as a rebounder.

I don't disagree with most of your overall post, but I don't think it's quite accurate to say that Gasol has regressed as  a rebounder.

Yes, his 'total' rebounding rate and percentage has declined, but that's largely a function of his declining offensive rebounding (ORB) numbers.   His defensive rebounding (DRB) rates and percentage have stayed pretty steady his whole career.

His ORB numbers have dropped in direct correlation with his increased usage in the high-post on offense.  He's setting up and facilitating the offense from much farther out and more often than when he was younger.  His AST% has climbed steadily over that time to a hefty (for a big man) 19.7% last year.  His percentage of jump shots from outside 10 and 16 feet has steadily increased over those years as well.

So, simple geometry:  When a big man executes more of his offense farther from the basket, he's going to grab fewer ORBs.

It doesn't mean he's actually worse at grabbing the rebounds he has a chance at though, as the DRB numbers suggest.

You see the same effect (declining ORB rates) with other players who have moved their offense further from the basket, such as Kevin Love or our own Sullinger (a trend that I hope reverses this season!).

I do agree with your overall comment though, that Zeller compares more favorably with the 24-25 year-old Marc Gasol than I think many fans realize.

Heck, even Tyler's AST% (10.8%) last year was nearly identical to Gasol's 10.2% rate at age 25.