Brooklyn is going to be terrible- We really could get a top 5 pick this year...

[slamtheking]

If the last few years have proven anything, it's that it is really, really hard to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league - even if you wouldn't mind being awful.

Brooklyn will actively try not to be awful, barring a major (and incredibly stupid) shift in franchise strategy.

I just don't see it happening.

The previous 4 years for the 5th worst record:

2015: Orlando 25-57
2014: Celtics 25-57
2013: Pelicans 27-55
2012: Kings 22-44

I wouldn't have considered Orlando a tanking team. I would say we didn't try to tank but ended up overachieving that year. I can't recall the Pelicans and Kings in the years before. I think the 5th worst record is the ceiling for the Brooklyn pick. If they have a particularly good season they could have the 12th worst record (The average over the last 4 years is 35 wins). So I think the range is 5-12 pre lottery night.

I agree with you that it would be implausible for them to finish with the 1st-4th worst records. The chances of getting a pick there depends on lady luck!

thing is, every year there's a team or two that ends up being a lot worse than they planned to be.  I think it's the Nets this year.  mediocre starting line-up when everyone's healthy.  No bench to speak of.  Projected health of the top players for the year is suspect at best. 

Team has no top young prospects nor does it have draft picks in upcoming years to add some young prospects.  Free agency is unlikely to have more than 2-3 good players up for grabs in the next 2-3 years (and that may be overly optimistic since the top players are likely to resign with their current teams) and the lure of a 'big market' doesn't seem to have the appeal that some here think makes a difference to free agents. 

I would be somewhat surprised if the Nets didn't sell off the decent players they have to try to land some draft picks to start a rebuild that the franchise desperately needs.  while they won't reap the rewards of their own picks they would have someone's pick(s) to work with.

If I were the Nets and someone gave me a serviceable player and a good pick for someone like Thad Young, I take it. So you're right. However, even if they trade 1 or 2 big pieces, they'd presumably have a serviceable player coming back in the deal right? Either an expiring vet or a young guy.. and in that case I fully expect the Nets to still be better than Philly in the East and Portland and the Lakers in the West. Teams like Minnesota and Denver could be watered down by the end of the year as well.

Now if there is an injury at almost any position for the Nets then they will go on a losing streak for sure, because as you say their roster is paper thin. But as things stand I won't count on that to boost the pick.

On a side note not directly related to the title; I'm more sceptical of the free agency theory. In the case of the Nets, who literally have no reason not to try and compete in the ext few years, why wouldn't you overpay a few prospects this summer in the hope they mature into a better player than their contract? Sully springs to mind... Why not offer Sully a deal that Boston wouldn't match for 3 years. He gets a big pay day and centre stage, the Nets get an asset that could increase in value whilst not compromising their future. To me it's not the max free agents that would go to Brooklyn, it's the restricted guys that might make the jump.

true, if the Nets trade one of their better players they would have to take back a player or players of matching salary.  I don't agree though that the incoming player would be of equivalent talent.  The Nets would make the move for either a young prospect who is underperforming and/or a first round pick.  For example, say they get an offer for Young and it includes a first round pick.  even if that's a low first, that player coming to the Nets won't be as good as Young --> if the player is as good as Young, why would the other team make that deal and if he's better, even less reason to make the deal unless the Nets are sending out more than Young.

bottom line, I think if the Nets do move what few assets they have, I don't see equivalent talent coming back. 

[PhoSita]

If the last few years have proven anything, it's that it is really, really hard to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league - even if you wouldn't mind being awful.

Brooklyn will actively try not to be awful, barring a major (and incredibly stupid) shift in franchise strategy.

I just don't see it happening.

The previous 4 years for the 5th worst record:

2015: Orlando 25-57
2014: Celtics 25-57
2013: Pelicans 27-55
2012: Kings 22-44

I wouldn't have considered Orlando a tanking team. I would say we didn't try to tank but ended up overachieving that year. I can't recall the Pelicans and Kings in the years before. I think the 5th worst record is the ceiling for the Brooklyn pick. If they have a particularly good season they could have the 12th worst record (The average over the last 4 years is 35 wins). So I think the range is 5-12 pre lottery night.

I agree with you that it would be implausible for them to finish with the 1st-4th worst records. The chances of getting a pick there depends on lady luck!

One of the things that the teams at the bottom usually have in common is that the guys who get most of the minutes tend to be young, without much NBA experience.  In short, they haven't yet figured out how to win games.

The Nets aren't a great team, but the guys who are in line to get most of the minutes are veterans, and even the younger guys tend to be more experienced as role players (e.g. Bogdanovic and Robinson).

Again, defending the Nets here isn't about saying they'll be good.  They won't be.  I'm confident of that.  But I expect the Sixers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Blazers, and Lakers to be worse, at the least, and probably the Knicks as well.

[slamtheking]

If the last few years have proven anything, it's that it is really, really hard to be one of the 5 worst teams in the league - even if you wouldn't mind being awful.

Brooklyn will actively try not to be awful, barring a major (and incredibly stupid) shift in franchise strategy.

I just don't see it happening.

The previous 4 years for the 5th worst record:

2015: Orlando 25-57
2014: Celtics 25-57
2013: Pelicans 27-55
2012: Kings 22-44

I wouldn't have considered Orlando a tanking team. I would say we didn't try to tank but ended up overachieving that year. I can't recall the Pelicans and Kings in the years before. I think the 5th worst record is the ceiling for the Brooklyn pick. If they have a particularly good season they could have the 12th worst record (The average over the last 4 years is 35 wins). So I think the range is 5-12 pre lottery night.

I agree with you that it would be implausible for them to finish with the 1st-4th worst records. The chances of getting a pick there depends on lady luck!

One of the things that the teams at the bottom usually have in common is that the guys who get most of the minutes tend to be young, without much NBA experience.  In short, they haven't yet figured out how to win games.

The Nets aren't a great team, but the guys who are in line to get most of the minutes are veterans, and even the younger guys tend to be more experienced as role players (e.g. Bogdanovic and Robinson).

Again, defending the Nets here isn't about saying they'll be good.  They won't be.  I'm confident of that.  But I expect the Sixers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Blazers, and Lakers to be worse, at the least, and probably the Knicks as well.

fair enough but even then, that puts the Nets at #7 which is a pretty solid place to pick from. 

tbh, I think the Wolves could surprise this year.  Also, Lakers and Knicks won't be as bad as last year and they do have approximately the same level of talent as the Nets when they're healthy. 

Blazers and Nuggets will be much worse than last year but they still have a bit of talent left.   never know how they could make out (I suspect they'll be bad, very bad in light of playing in the West).  Philly's about the only sure bet since they're still a dumpster fire.

[chambers]

Looks like everyone was pretty spot on here with predictions on the worst teams in each conference.

The surprise for me is just how badly the Lakers are tanking, but they're desperate to hold the 2nd worst record.

[celticsclay]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

I think this may be a first, a bump for me, but I went back and read this after Someone put it on the front page. I wish I had picked a better example then jets who have had a good year, but man, it's like we still have this argument two months into the season.

[LHR]

It almost looks as if Brooklyn is going to be locked in at the 4-5 slot.  Real battle between them and the Pelicans for the three.  And hopefully the Blazers keep playing hard.

Either way where they end up, it should not be worse than 5.

That's a good enough Christmas present for me.

[mctyson]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

[slamtheking]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

i've speculated in other threads that they'd consider moving their vets (Lopez, Young, JJ, Jack, Bargs) for other teams picks.  they can have oodles of cap space but it doesn't do much good if they can't bring in top players worth spending that money on.  sure, they could attract some mediocre players but would it be enough to get them to the playoffs?  probably not, so what would be the point.

[chambers]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

i've speculated in other threads that they'd consider moving their vets (Lopez, Young, JJ, Jack, Bargs) for other teams picks.  they can have oodles of cap space but it doesn't do much good if they can't bring in top players worth spending that money on.  sure, they could attract some mediocre players but would it be enough to get them to the playoffs?  probably not, so what would be the point.

Keep in mind that because we have their picks for the next 3 years, they don't really have an incentive to 'bottom out', so as an organization they'll probably make more money putting a 7th/8th seed playoff battler out there rather than rebuilding with 2nd round picks+ whatever picks they get for Lopez + Young.

I agree with you though, and that's the saddest part for the Nets....
1) they don't have any kind of appeal to free agents
2) they can't get anything for their scrubby players that they don't wanna keep
3)they don't have any of their own picks to boost any potential tank/rebuild project.

They are literally in no man's land.
Also known as 'Up Sh$# creek'

[mctyson]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

My reasoning is that they need to acquire draft picks at all costs.  They need to completely overhaul the roster.  There is no way they will build a respectable franchise because of 'cap space.'  Everyone has cap space now.  They need to get back in the next few drafts somehow.

They are probably the worst team in the NBA.  Philly and LA are trying to lose on purpose.  Brooklyn?  Going out every night trying to win, and still losing most of the time.  They have very little talent on that team.

Lopez is the only player on the roster who will probably net a 1st round pick in return.  He is playing well but is also a ticking time-bomb with his injury history.  He looks healthy now.  He would definitely be a good fit on a few contending teams (Dallas? Indiana? )  You have to sell high in every market and I just don't see Lopez' value ever being higher than it is right now.

If you are GM of the Nets - your team is 8-21, 3rd worst in the league behind two tanks - what are you telling yourself that makes you think you can correct this in free agency?  There are probably 25 teams with the ability to sign any player you could sign next year.  Who wants to join this team?  Who are you signing that makes them a playoff team in the East?

If I was GM of the Nets - I am trading Lopez and Thadeus Young.  I think these guys could at least get you one late 1st rounder, if not 2.  Try to find a young project return who needs reps also.  The salaries coming back are the main issue, but you can take them on if they are short duration.

They can't get much worse than .265 winning percentage, so I don't see any motivation to keep Lopez at all.

[mef730]

It almost looks as if Brooklyn is going to be locked in at the 4-5 slot.  Real battle between them and the Pelicans for the three.  And hopefully the Blazers keep playing hard.

Either way where they end up, it should not be worse than 5.

That's a good enough Christmas present for me.

I'm much more worried about the Blazers and, to some extent, Denver & Phoenix. I think New Orleans is over the hump. Their biggest issue was injuries, not quality. They won't win any championships, but we don't need them to do that. We only need them to win more than the Nets.

Mike

[tazzmaniac]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

i've speculated in other threads that they'd consider moving their vets (Lopez, Young, JJ, Jack, Bargs) for other teams picks.  they can have oodles of cap space but it doesn't do much good if they can't bring in top players worth spending that money on.  sure, they could attract some mediocre players but would it be enough to get them to the playoffs?  probably not, so what would be the point.

Teams have to pay the minimum team salary (90% of cap) so getting rid of Lopez and Young just means that the Nets will spend even more money on mediocre players.  The league is full of mediocrity or parity if you prefer.  If they make some improvement in their guards and add some more depth, the Nets could certainly compete for the 7th or 8th spot in the East.  I can't see the Nets getting good enough offers to justify trading Lopez and Young.   

[BitterJim]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

i've speculated in other threads that they'd consider moving their vets (Lopez, Young, JJ, Jack, Bargs) for other teams picks.  they can have oodles of cap space but it doesn't do much good if they can't bring in top players worth spending that money on.  sure, they could attract some mediocre players but would it be enough to get them to the playoffs?  probably not, so what would be the point.

Teams have to pay the minimum team salary (90% of cap) so getting rid of Lopez and Young just means that the Nets will spend even more money on mediocre players.  The league is full of mediocrity or parity if you prefer.  If they make some improvement in their guards and add some more depth, the Nets could certainly compete for the 7th or 8th spot in the East.  I can't see the Nets getting good enough offers to justify trading Lopez and Young.

Teams do NOT need to reach the salary floor.  If they don't, the difference between their total salary and the floor gets distributed among the players, so there's no advantage to being below it, but there isn't a disadvantage, either

[mctyson]

I think Lopez will be dealt.  I just don't see how you justify keeping him on a team that is arguably the worst in the league, because they are trying to win and cannot.  At least we know the Sixers and the Lakers are tanking.

Considering that they'll have plenty of cap space going forward, and still have draft pick problems going forward, what motivation could they possibly have to move Lopez other than looking for an upgrade?

i've speculated in other threads that they'd consider moving their vets (Lopez, Young, JJ, Jack, Bargs) for other teams picks.  they can have oodles of cap space but it doesn't do much good if they can't bring in top players worth spending that money on.  sure, they could attract some mediocre players but would it be enough to get them to the playoffs?  probably not, so what would be the point.

Teams have to pay the minimum team salary (90% of cap) so getting rid of Lopez and Young just means that the Nets will spend even more money on mediocre players.  The league is full of mediocrity or parity if you prefer.  If they make some improvement in their guards and add some more depth, the Nets could certainly compete for the 7th or 8th spot in the East.  I can't see the Nets getting good enough offers to justify trading Lopez and Young.

I can see the Nets getting a 1st round pick and a player with upside for Lopez.  I think they have to make that trade if it is offered.  But I am sure whatever direction they go in, it will be the worst one, because Billy King runs their team.