Brooklyn is going to be terrible- We really could get a top 5 pick this year...

[chambers]

I was skeptical earlier in the year that Brooklyn would really give us some hope at a late lottery pick in the 2016 draft. I thought Lopez would have to miss significant time. But since then they've traded Plumlee,  traded Deron, and acquired NBA superstars Mr Dhantay Jones AND Andrea Bargani-all the while Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez age another year and an even greater load rests on their shoulders.

With the rest of the East all getting better-the 8th seeded Nets from last season are going to be outclassed by most opponents-and in the East at this early stage of an upcoming season they look prime to be blazing dumpster fire.

Looking at the East, of the bottom 8 teams, Brooklyn appears to be the only team to have gotten worse and lost depth at every position.
If we look at the teams that didn't make the playoffs last season...

Bobcats
Pacers
Heat
Knicks
Pistons
(and us)

Are all significantly better than last year.
That's 6 teams including us that they'll have to beat just for the 8th seed and that's assuming that Philly and Orlando are at the bottom again.

A quick glance at the West and we can say the bottom two slots are likely going to be Minnesota and Denver, with LA, Sacto, Phoenix, and Utah fighting out for 35+ wins.
Dallas may be a part of that conversation by mid season...fingers crossed.

Anyone else got increased confidence from their horrible offseason and our resulting pick?

[Hemingway]

I hope your right. But none of those teams you listed look that good. I guess the heat should be clearly a step or 3 above the nets. As long as the nets miss the playoffs we will have some chance they get a top 3 pick. Feels like we haven't gotten and draft luck in a while. Hard to see them completely giving up and bottoming out because we have their pick

[Granath]

I've been saying all along that I did not want to trade the Brooklyn 2016 pick because it has a pretty fair chance of being a lottery pick. The chances of them making the playoffs are probably worse than the chances of them being one of the 5 worst teams in the NBA. While they may get lucky I think you have to play the odds and the odds are that they aren't going to do well. that's why SI has them 13th in the East (5th worst overall), Bleacher has them 13th (6th worst overall) and most others have them between 11th and 13th. Vegas gives them the 4th worst chance in the NBA to win it all and I think the over/under is 32 wins.

So you simply have to play those odds unless you get a superstar type deal on the table. In fact, I would not be overly surprised if Boston winds up with THREE lottery picks next season. While I prefer the Cs make the playoffs, it's a young team and I could see them missing out. I think Dallas is in for a hard road this year in the West.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Last two seasons Brooklyn has been terrible, and then in the end they turn it up and make the playoffs. Hopefully this doesn't occur again.

[chambers]

I hope your right. But none of those teams you listed look that good. I guess the heat should be clearly a step or 3 above the nets. As long as the nets miss the playoffs we will have some chance they get a top 3 pick. Feels like we haven't gotten and draft luck in a while. Hard to see them completely giving up and bottoming out because we have their pick

The thing is that they don't even have to try to suck-they have no choice.
Between Brooklyn and Detroit there were only 6 wins.
The Knicks were miles behind but they are arguably better than the Nets now.

I think the Knicks, Pistons,  Bobcats and probably Pacers will be 5-8 wins better at least, and Brooklyn could be a 30 win team quite easily. If lopez misses 30 games we'll surely be looking at top 8, maybe top 5 with some slight luck (Joe Johnson goes down or Jack etc).

[saltlover]

Last two seasons Brooklyn has been terrible, and then in the end they turn it up and make the playoffs. Hopefully this doesn't occur again.

Thankfully this Brookyln team should be worse than last year's Brookyln team, given subtractionsn and additions.  And last year's Brooklyn team snuck in just barely, having the same record as the Pacers who missed the playoffs.  And their scoring differential was abysmal. And at least 3 of the 4 teams who finished equal with or behind them in the standings look to have improved from last year (I'm not sold on Detroit having improved much) while none of the teams ahead of them should fall off significantly enough to drop below them.  So much has to go right for them and wrong for other teams to make the playoffs that I can't see it happening.  Treading water is unlikely to cut it.

[TheTruthFot18]

Last two seasons Brooklyn has been terrible, and then in the end they turn it up and make the playoffs. Hopefully this doesn't occur again.

Big 3 did the same thing (minus being "terrible") as each they trended downward from 08 to a .500 finish in 2013.

Nets are doing the same thing. If they keep up that downward trend they could end up at 33-49. In this recent draft that would be the 8th or 9th pick. I think the pick will land anywhere from 5-12. It won't get us Simmons or Lab.

[GC003332]

The race to the bottom in the NBA , one thing to look out for when hoping that the Nets give up a high end lottery pick to the Celtics is the teams that owe their first rounders to other teams next year, You have Sacramento with a top 10 protected pick to the Bulls, Lakers top 3 protected to the Sixers, Minnesota top 12 protected to the C's, Mav's top 7 protected to the C's, Miami top 10 protected to the Sixers, seems like every year teams seem to pull out all the stops when their seasons are nose diving to stay within that protection.Good news is that the Nuggets can swap picks with the Knicks this season so there is no incentive for the Knicks to be as woeful again.
So as as bad as the Nets could get there may be those teams with the possible exception of Miami all looking to tank hard to keep their picks for another year.

[sofutomygaha]

It's not at all obvious to me that Indiana and Detroit have improved significantly. The Pacers have a great 1-2 punch with George and Ellis, but they are going to be really terrible up front. Detroit let a max player walk and brought in Ilyasova, Meeks, and Marcus Morris--- all interesting players, but none will ever be an all-star. They are still building around Drummond, a fantastic rebounder and physical specimen who regressed on both sides of the ball last season.

[sofutomygaha]

This isn't really about the bottom of the pack, but I also think Atlanta and Washington are headed back to the middle.

The Wizards look to me like they're going to slide. Wall is great, and Beal+Porter are nice players, but that team was precarious already with an aging, up-and-down frontcourt. Pierce was good for them last year, whereas his replacement Jared Dudley is an average player. Nene is falling apart and Gortat is a big candidate to regress. If Wall were to get hurt, by the way, the Wizards would fold even harder than the Heat did without Bosh and the Pacers did without George.

... and that brings us to another point, which is that SOMEBODY is going to get hurt, and some East teams are deeper than others. The Knicks look a little better than last year, but if Lopez or Anthony gets hurt, they will be just as bad. The Cavs are a Lebron James injury away from being last year's Miami Heat.

[PhoSita]

I think our best hope at a top 5 pick is for Brooklyn to suffer some injuries, end up with bottom 6 or 7 record, and then move up into the top 3 via the lottery.

[sofutomygaha]

Final comment-- the Bucks, Hornets, Magic, and Celtics all look way too talented not to improve. They will all feature young players that have shown promise and they hope are bound for stardom (Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jabari!... Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller!!.... Payton, Oladipo, Harris, and Gordon!... Smart and Sullinger!)

Those guys aren't all going to be stars. Those guys aren't all going to be even average NBA players. Shiny young shooting stars fall to earth all the time. These teams all have significant downside. At least one of them is going to invest a lot of minutes in a young, talented lineup that just never makes the jump. I can't say who it is (Orlando... it's still Orlando), but someone is staying in basement.

[Hemingway]

A lot comes down to the end of the season and how many game you play againt teams that dont care anymore- either becasuee they are tanking or resting stars. Here is the nets last 2 months:

Tue.   1-Mar-16   at   L.A. Lakers   7:30 PM
Fri.   4-Mar-16   at   Denver   7:00 PM
Sat.   5-Mar-16   at   Minnesota   7:00 PM
Tue.   8-Mar-16   at   Toronto   7:30 PM
Fri.   11-Mar-16   at   Philadelphia   7:00 PM
Sun.   13-Mar-16       Milwaukee   8:00 PM
Tue.   15-Mar-16       Philadelphia   7:30 PM
Thu.   17-Mar-16   at   Chicago   7:00 PM
Sat.   19-Mar-16   at   Detroit   7:00 PM
Tue.   22-Mar-16       Charlotte   7:30 PM
Thu.   24-Mar-16       Cleveland   7:30 PM
Sat.   26-Mar-16       Indiana   6:00 PM
Mon.   28-Mar-16   at   Miami   7:30 PM
Tue.   29-Mar-16   at   Orlando   7:00 PM
Thu.   31-Mar-16   at   Cleveland   7:00 PM
Fri.   1-Apr-16   at   New York   7:30 PM
Sun.   3-Apr-16       New Orleans   1:00 PM
Wed.   6-Apr-16   at   Washington   7:00 PM
Fri.   8-Apr-16   at   Charlotte   7:00 PM
Sun.   10-Apr-16   at   Indiana   6:00 PM
Mon.   11-Apr-16       Washington   7:30 PM
Wed.   13-Apr-16       Toronto   8:00 PM

What do ya think?

[Hemingway]

could be good for us, not many clearly top or bottom teams.

[PhoSita]

Final comment-- the Bucks, Hornets, Magic, and Celtics all look way too talented not to improve. They will all feature young players that have shown promise and they hope are bound for stardom (Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jabari!... Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller!!.... Payton, Oladipo, Harris, and Gordon!... Smart and Sullinger!)

Those guys aren't all going to be stars. Those guys aren't all going to be even average NBA players. Shiny young shooting stars fall to earth all the time. These teams all have significant downside. At least one of them is going to invest a lot of minutes in a young, talented lineup that just never makes the jump. I can't say who it is (Orlando... it's still Orlando), but someone is staying in basement.

Right.  It can't work out for everybody.  Some teams will suffer injuries, and some teams will find that what looked really great at some point last year suddenly isn't working as well.  Young players who have shown promise will struggle.


I'd say the biggest thing in the Celts' favor is that they will probably be giving a lot of minutes to guys who are established.  IT, Lee, Amir, Bradley, ET -- we know who they are at this point.  We know what to expect, barring a sudden decline by Lee or Amir.