Author Topic: Kelly as a Center.  (Read 16154 times)

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Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #45 on: August 18, 2015, 03:00:18 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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The steal rate is probably the biggest argument in favor of Olynyk getting minutes over Zeller to me, since steals are the least replacable part of defense from player to player (unlike, say, defensive rebounds).

But, on the other hand, we're talking about giving time to the Knockout or the worse Zeller sibling. I would prefer a legitimately good player to either -- I don't think anyone disagrees that upgrading our frontcourt is a pretty pressing need for our team in the near future?
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #46 on: August 18, 2015, 03:06:45 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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The steal rate is probably the biggest argument in favor of Olynyk getting minutes over Zeller to me, since steals are the least replacable part of defense from player to player (unlike, say, defensive rebounds).

But, on the other hand, we're talking about giving time to the Knockout or the worse Zeller sibling. I would prefer a legitimately good player to either -- I don't think anyone disagrees that upgrading our frontcourt is a pretty pressing need for our team in the near future?
I agree that the front court was the biggest need going into the season. I'm hoping that Amir and Lee as well as improvements from whoever else is in the rotation will improve that position.

I'm not advocating for Olynyk as the starter, but I think he should be the back up 5. He is a much better fit in the spread with Thomas than Zeller is.

btw who is the Knockout?
DKC:  Rockets
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Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #47 on: August 18, 2015, 03:12:08 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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btw who is the Knockout?
C'mon. You can do it. I believe in you.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #48 on: August 18, 2015, 03:13:18 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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This thread ...

"No, the glass is half full."

"No, the glass is half empty."

"Half full!"

"Half empty!"

Me: "We have water. That's a good sign."

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #49 on: August 18, 2015, 03:15:21 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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This thread ...

"No, the glass is half full."

"No, the glass is half empty."

"Half full!"

"Half empty!"

You forgot the people saying that we're better off with a glass that is either 100% full or 100% empty.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2015, 03:17:57 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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As well as the people all ready to have water poured on them.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #51 on: August 18, 2015, 03:21:45 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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btw who is the Knockout?
C'mon. You can do it. I believe in you.
Haha, i'm sorry been a long day at work and my brain isn't working.
DKC:  Rockets
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Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #52 on: August 18, 2015, 03:29:04 PM »

Offline saltlover

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The steal rate is probably the biggest argument in favor of Olynyk getting minutes over Zeller to me, since steals are the least replacable part of defense from player to player (unlike, say, defensive rebounds).

But, on the other hand, we're talking about giving time to the Knockout or the worse Zeller sibling. I would prefer a legitimately good player to either -- I don't think anyone disagrees that upgrading our frontcourt is a pretty pressing need for our team in the near future?
I agree that the front court was the biggest need going into the season. I'm hoping that Amir and Lee as well as improvements from whoever else is in the rotation will improve that position.

I'm not advocating for Olynyk as the starter, but I think he should be the back up 5. He is a much better fit in the spread with Thomas than Zeller is.

btw who is the Knockout?

Tyler Zeller is fine for offensive spacing.  In fact, a Tyler Zeller foul-line jumper is a better shot than an Olynyk corner 3.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #53 on: August 18, 2015, 03:33:50 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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btw who is the Knockout?
C'mon. You can do it. I believe in you.
Haha, i'm sorry been a long day at work and my brain isn't working.

Hint: the KnockOut.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #54 on: August 18, 2015, 04:21:14 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Looking at the stats and various other assessments, there seems to be a line of argument that centre is KO's best position (mainly due to deficiencies as a forward), but he isn't a great centre. To be fair his attributes have been mentioned and he does a lot of good things. I think he could be a vital link in a CBS coached team, especially off the bench. Due to him not being a carbon copy of a 'typical' centre or like the other players we have that are likely to play centre, he changes things up when he comes on and creates a different threat.

He also has that ability to dislocate an all stars shoulder or elbow, which could be valuable.

There is little doubt that playing time will be shared around with this squad and I think KO will get enough to use his strengths but won't be over used so his weaknesses become a massive problem.

I agree with this. If all indications are that Olynyk is more effective as a center than a power forward, play him at center. It doesn't absolve the team of the fact that we lack a starting-caliber center, and I don't believe that we should pass on including Olynyk in a trade for one should the opportunity arise or refuse to curtail his minutes if one appears on the roster along side him.
Here's what I'm trying to say here...

I'm not sure that Kelly is an effective center.

I'm not sure that Kelly is most effective at center.

When you're looking at team-based stats, context can get lost.  Was Kelly most effective in lineups when he was playing center?  Who was playing power forward in those line-ups?   Alternatively, who was playing center next to Kelly when he was playing power forward?  As far as I can tell, this team was pretty devoid of true centers last year.  Zeller was the only player that could realistically be seen as a real center and Zeller at best is an overachieving 2nd/3rd string center.  If Kelly was playing power forward... who was he playing power forward next to?   If it was ineffective, you have to consider if perhaps it just wasn't a good mix of players next to him.

If Kelly + Zeller was less effective than Bass + Kelly or Sully + Kelly, couldn't that speak more to the fact that Sullinger and Bass are better at basketball than Zeller?   This team didn't have a lot of talent last year, but one position they had some quality at was power forward.  Sullinger, Bass and Olynyk are about as close to "starter-caliber" talent that this team had.   Maximizing the amount of basketball talent on the court at once necessitated having one of those guys play out of position at center.  Kelly, being 7 foot and reasonably resembling what we consider proper "center" size in this league was the one to get the nod. 

This reminds me of a small-level version of Jeff Green + Kevin Durant.  Those early Thunder/Sonic teams lacked overall talent.  It was clear that Jeff Green was one of their 3 best players.   Obviously, Durant was the best SF they had.  If they were going to play Green, it was going to be out of position... Green got stuck playing PF.   Now, if you were to look at some 82games breakdowns of those early Sonic/Thunder teams, you might come to the conclusion that Jeff Green was far more "effective" in lineups where he played PF vs lineups when he played SF.   Context:   Durant (SF) + Green (PF) was probably more effective than Green (SF) + Chris Wilcox (PF) ...  Does that mean that Green was more "effective" at PF than SF?   Or does that just reflect the fact that Kevin Durant was so significantly better than Chris Wilcox that it outweighed the fact that Jeff Green was playing out of position?

Green was a SF playing out of position at PF by necessity.   Kelly is a PF who played out of position at C by necessity.    Kelly isn't a center.  And let's not gloss over the fact that he was such a poor solution at center that he lost the starting role to Tyler Zeller.    I still believe Kelly has game, though.  I really like Kelly for his offensive ability.   I'd be rather curious to see how he played at PF next to an appropriately talented center whose abilities compliment Kelly's strengths (offense) and weaknesses (interior defense).     As others have mentioned, it will be interesting to see him in a line-up with Amir Johnson.

TL;DR:  At gunpoint, I'd guesstimate the rankings of our bigs last year as Bass > Sully > Oly > Zeller.   It shouldn't be stunning that lineups featuring the two worst bigs was the least effective.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2015, 04:30:54 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #55 on: August 18, 2015, 04:41:51 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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   I'd be rather curious to see how he played at PF next to an appropriately talented center whose abilities compliment Kelly's strengths (offense) and weaknesses (interior defense).     As others have mentioned, it will be interesting to see him in a line-up with Amir Johnson.



Agreed.  Whichever guy you call the power forward and whichever guy you call the center in that duo is sort of irrelevant.

I do think that a Kelly Olynyk/Amir Johnson front court could be fairly good, though.  I too am looking forward to seeing it. 
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C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #56 on: August 18, 2015, 04:43:56 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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   I'd be rather curious to see how he played at PF next to an appropriately talented center whose abilities compliment Kelly's strengths (offense) and weaknesses (interior defense).     As others have mentioned, it will be interesting to see him in a line-up with Amir Johnson.



Agreed.  Whichever guy you call the power forward and whichever guy you call the center in that duo is sort of irrelevant.

I do think that a Kelly Olynyk/Amir Johnson front court could be fairly good, though.  I too am looking forward to seeing it.

On paper Amir would appear to be Olynyk's best companion in the frontcourt.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #57 on: August 18, 2015, 04:54:28 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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   I'd be rather curious to see how he played at PF next to an appropriately talented center whose abilities compliment Kelly's strengths (offense) and weaknesses (interior defense).     As others have mentioned, it will be interesting to see him in a line-up with Amir Johnson.



Agreed.  Whichever guy you call the power forward and whichever guy you call the center in that duo is sort of irrelevant.

I do think that a Kelly Olynyk/Amir Johnson front court could be fairly good, though.  I too am looking forward to seeing it.

On paper Amir would appear to be Olynyk's best companion in the frontcourt.
Do you suspect the issue with playing Oly next to Zeller was lack of defensive mobility between either of them?   I'm not entirely familiar with Amir's game, but he seems to be a pretty mobile defender with decent length, right?  Maybe pairing the two would work.  Oly might be called the center.  Amir might be called the PF.  But it seems they'd be playing what resembles the opposite roles.  THat's not too dissimilar to lineups featuring Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley.   Smart might be called the PG in that line-up, but Avery is the one defending the smaller guy (the opposing PG).... which is why I usually list Avery as the PG and Smart as the SG when I'm writing a line-up breakdown... especially considering that Evan Turner was actually the closest thing we had to a floor general in that pace-and-space offense.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #58 on: August 18, 2015, 04:59:02 PM »

Offline ahonui06

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   I'd be rather curious to see how he played at PF next to an appropriately talented center whose abilities compliment Kelly's strengths (offense) and weaknesses (interior defense).     As others have mentioned, it will be interesting to see him in a line-up with Amir Johnson.



Agreed.  Whichever guy you call the power forward and whichever guy you call the center in that duo is sort of irrelevant.

I do think that a Kelly Olynyk/Amir Johnson front court could be fairly good, though.  I too am looking forward to seeing it.

On paper Amir would appear to be Olynyk's best companion in the frontcourt.
Do you suspect the issue with playing Oly next to Zeller was lack of defensive mobility between either of them?   I'm not entirely familiar with Amir's game, but he seems to be a pretty mobile defender with decent length, right?  Maybe pairing the two would work.  Oly might be called the center.  Amir might be called the PF.  But it seems they'd be playing what resembles the opposite roles.  THat's not too dissimilar to lineups featuring Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley.   Smart might be called the PG in that line-up, but Avery is the one defending the smaller guy (the opposing PG).... which is why I usually list Avery as the PG and Smart as the SG when I'm writing a line-up breakdown... especially considering that Evan Turner was actually the closest thing we had to a floor general in that pace-and-space offense.

I'm sure lack of mobility and lateral quickness was definitely of concern with the Zeller/Olynyk pairing as long as the average to below average rebounding. Pairing Amir with Zeller or Olynyk would probably be a sufficient and effective duo.

Re: Kelly as a Center.
« Reply #59 on: August 18, 2015, 05:01:21 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I think Zeller gets undervalued because he doesn't do anything particularly flashy or sexy but he does what he does well.

Kelly hits threes and he has moments where he handles,  drives,  and passes like a guard but Zeller is a much more consistent and polished player.

There will be minutes for both because you need to utilize them differently depending on  matchups.  For my money Zeller is the more reliable piece to have in your teams toolbox.
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