Kelly as a Center.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Lar, that +/- is what immediately stood out to me.

For another perspective, his DRPM last season was 1.71. 24th among Cs.

So does that +/- reflect the great defensive impact Olynyk had during those brief 42 minutes?... or does that all fall on the great Marcus Thornton?... or should we read into the fact that line-ups featuring Marcus Thornton probably weren't going against top competition?

Thornton.

I wouldn't expect him to ever be anything more than serviceable, defensively, at either position. But what he gives up in rim protection, couldn't he make up for offensively with floor spacing? I'd think that stat is more likely to reflect how he can help the offense, if it's legitimate.

Edit related to your edit: I was referring to the +/- differential on the 160 minute stat, 2nd on the list to the 320.

[ahonui06]

http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS20.HTM#bypos

According to 82games.com, Kelly Olynyk played almost 8x more minutes at center than at power forward last season.

When Kelly played center, the team had a net offensive rating of 105.2 and a net defensive rating of 96.0. 

The second number is what stands out the most to me.  The Celtics were very good defensively with Kelly at center. 

I'm not sure how accurate 82games' numbers are, but this is an encouraging sign. 

It seems that most are convinced that Kelly is categorically not a center, and should not be playing there.  Folks think of Kelly as a power forward.  He is seen as soft and unathletic and as someone who will simply get pushed around on the interior.

Yet, the numbers suggest that the team didn't suffer, rather they flourished, when KO was playing as the man in the middle defensively. 

Some time over the course of last season, I started to see what Brad obviously was seeing as well.  Kelly's most useful position is at the center position.  As a four, he frequently struggled when he had to guard players who were more perimeter oriented.  His one on one lateral foot speed trying to stay with guys on the perimeter leaves a lot to be desired.  However, when he gets to guard players who primarily play inside and aren't looking to take their man off the dribble, he is an effective defender.

Sure, he would get bullied on occasion by bigger, stronger, more athletic players.  However, he more than made up for that by being a competent, aware, and disciplined pick and roll defender.  He rarely seems to over commit to either the roll man or the ball handler on the pick and roll.  He is good at keeping contact with both long enough to force the ball handler to make a difficult play.


Offensively, I would think that the advantages he presents at center are much more self evident.  Opposing centers don't want to have to come guard their man behind the three point line.  This of course opens up the middle for drivers and cutters to get easy baskets. 

I'm leading the charge for Kelly Olynyk as our starting center with Amir Johnson as the power forward.  I think the two of them have a nice, complementary skill set that will make for a very effective front line. 

 

 

The low defensive rating may also be a part of having stellar defensive guard play which minimizes the amount of dribble penetration. Olynyk is decent defensively though and holds his own better than Zeller, Bass or Sullinger.

[LarBrd33]

Still waiting for someone smarter than me to give a more in-depth breakdown, but I looked at the site and here's some observations:

http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS2.HTM

I sorted all 5-man units by DEF (the unit's points-per possession allowed)

Highlighted lineups with Olynyk at center in green:



So yeah... looks like our best defensive lineup was indeed PG - Smart, SG - Marcus Thornton, SF - Turner, PF - Bass, C - Olynyk... 

But it also says they only played a total of 42 minutes together... so how much clout should we really give that?  Possibly too small of a sample size for it to be relevant.

I'll filter out the less-used line-ups and only show our most popular ones (at least 70 minutes together):



That paints a different picture.  You'll see that the only lineups defensively worse than Olynyk at center are lineups with Jared Sullinger at center... All the top lineups had Zeller at center.  This shouldn't be much of a surprise.  You'll see that of our 4 most popular lineups, the worst was Olynyk at center... and I'm not sure how much clout you should give that either since that line-up featured Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green.   It doesn't seem that any of our major line-ups (post all-star) featured Kelly Olynyk at center this season... at some point they recognized that we were far better off defensively with Zeller in the middle.

None of this speaks to how Olynyk was defensively on an individual level.  I know that his block rate was dismal.   Ping Roy Hobbs... he's been good at finding individual defensive statistics in the past in regards to how a player impacts field goal percentage based on their proximity to the basket.  I'm not sure what resource he used for that.

I still see nothing to sway my belief that Olynyk is a power forward and will never be a long-term solution at center aside from gimmicky line-ups where you need long distance scoring from the position.

Also, does 82games limit to the 20 most popular line-ups?  Found it interesting that I didn't see a single line-up featuring both Olynyk and Zeller together.  Either they never shared the court together or 82games is only showing the 20 most frequent. 

[Celtics18]

Still, it places a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup because he doesn't have the tools to hedge, recover, and contest at the rim when defending the pick and roll, nor does he have the length or leaping ability to effectively bother and block shots inside.

You're right, he doesn't hedge and recover on the pick and roll.  He's more of a "show" guy on the pick and roll.  That is, he is more useful falling back into the lane off the pick and roll and playing a kind of zone against both the ball handler and the roller. 

The "show" system which seemed to be favored by Stevens last season works best when you have guards who are good at fighting over screens.  Luckily, the Celtics have guards in Smart and Bradley (and at least one wing in Crowder) who are very tenacious in fighting through screens.

I am hoping that Amir Johnson will give us the first big we've had since KG left who can be really effective in "hedging" or "blitzing" the ball handler and recovering to the roll man.

It will add a nice way to mix up our pick and roll coverage more. 

[Celtics18]

Lar, that +/- is what immediately stood out to me.

For another perspective, his DRPM last season was 1.71. 24th among Cs.

So does that +/- reflect the great defensive impact Olynyk had during those brief 42 minutes?... or does that all fall on the great Marcus Thornton?... or should we read into the fact that line-ups featuring Marcus Thornton probably weren't going against top competition?   Thornton played a total of 39 games for the Celtics... he didn't start a single game.   So consider that when looking at those 42 minutes where Olynyk was a beast defensively in a lineup featuring Marcus Thornton...

The other "big" defensive line-up with Olynyk playing center played together for a whopping 26 minutes... and it featured Smart, Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko.   We crediting Olynyk for the success of the 26 minutes featuring Crowder, Jerebko and Smart?   

Again, you have to search for some individual defensive stats.  Everything I've read about Olynyk over the past year suggested he was a complete disaster as a rim protector and it wasn't until the increase of Zeller's role that we started making some gains.  IMO, Olynyk was only ever starting at center, because we didn't believe we had an alternative.  The kid needed developmental minutes and we set off with intentions of bottoming out.  We couldn't play both Olynyk and Sullinger at PF at the same time... so the taller one got stuck playing out of position at center.   

Olynyk is a PF.

I agree that we were a disaster defensively early on in the season with Olynyk at center.  I also agree that he needs aggressive guards and wings on the floor with him to play effective defense at center.

Luckily, we have good defensive minded guards and wings on the roster. 

[LarBrd33]

Lar, that +/- is what immediately stood out to me.

For another perspective, his DRPM last season was 1.71. 24th among Cs.

So does that +/- reflect the great defensive impact Olynyk had during those brief 42 minutes?... or does that all fall on the great Marcus Thornton?... or should we read into the fact that line-ups featuring Marcus Thornton probably weren't going against top competition?

Thornton.

I wouldn't expect him to ever be anything more than serviceable, defensively, at either position. But what he gives up in rim protection, couldn't he make up for offensively with floor spacing? I'd think that stat is more likely to reflect how he can help the offense, if it's legitimate.

Edit related to your edit: I was referring to the +/- differential on the 160 minute stat, 2nd on the list to the 320.

Guess that means we need to bring back Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, eh?... since they were both in that lineup with the high +/- differential.

Context can get lost sometimes when looking at these.  Like if you purely look at the most effective defensive line-ups, you'd come away thinking that Smart, Thronton, Turner, Bass and Olynyk was a formidable defensive team that won 8 out of 10 games together...  Until you realize that Marcus Thornton never started a single game for the Celtics... and at the time Thornton was here, we also had Rondo, Green, etc...  That lineup (Smart, Thornton, Turner, Bass, Olynyk) was likely getting all 42 of those minutes against back-ups... since most of those guys were back-ups at the time.  Our starting lineup would have been Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger and either Zeller or Olynyk.... so you can make the educated assumption that those 42 minutes came against bench talent... possibly in games that had already been decided.

[Celtics18]

The low defensive rating may also be a part of having stellar defensive guard play which minimizes the amount of dribble penetration. Olynyk is decent defensively though and holds his own better than Zeller, Bass or Sullinger.

Oh, I have no disagreement there. 

[Rosco917]

There's nothing wrong with rim protection coming from the power forward position. I think Amir would be decent/solid in that roll.

Unfortunately last year I remember Kelly as the starting center, "It's Kelly's job to loose" I remember CBS saying that several times. I also recall what the first 10-20 games were like. He was paired with Sully as the PF granted. He eventually lost his starting job to Zeller for the entire year.

So I guess you're saying on defense the less Kelly has to move, react, and chase opposing players around, the more valuable his defense is. Makes sense.




 

[LarBrd33]

There's nothing wrong with rim protection coming from the power forward position. I think Amir would be decent/solid in that roll.

Unfortunately last year I remember Kelly as the starting center, "It's Kelly's job to loose" I remember CBS saying that several times. I also recall what the first 10-20 games were like. He was paired with Sully as the PF granted. He eventually lost his starting job to Zeller for the entire year.

So I guess you're saying on defense the less Kelly has to move, react, and chase opposing players around, the more valuable his defense is. Makes sense.

I think the origin of this discussion is the realization that we are overflowing at the PF position and pretty much all of them are likable players.  We're reaching for ways to convince ourselves that some could be centers.

David Lee
Jared Sullinger
Amir Johnson
Kelly Olynyk
Jonas Jerbeko
Mickey Jordan

I'm interested to see all of them get minutes.   Sure, in a pinch a guy like Lee or Sully can play center, but it's not preferable.  Some folks have pointed out that Amir Johnson was effective while playing out of position at center.   Sure, Olynyk played minutes at center, but I don't believe he's a solution at that position.  I'd be curious to see what Olynyk could do with 30+ minutes at his natural PF position, though.  I think he still might have a real future.  The guy is really effective offensively.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Lar, that +/- is what immediately stood out to me.

For another perspective, his DRPM last season was 1.71. 24th among Cs.

So does that +/- reflect the great defensive impact Olynyk had during those brief 42 minutes?... or does that all fall on the great Marcus Thornton?... or should we read into the fact that line-ups featuring Marcus Thornton probably weren't going against top competition?

Thornton.

I wouldn't expect him to ever be anything more than serviceable, defensively, at either position. But what he gives up in rim protection, couldn't he make up for offensively with floor spacing? I'd think that stat is more likely to reflect how he can help the offense, if it's legitimate.

Edit related to your edit: I was referring to the +/- differential on the 160 minute stat, 2nd on the list to the 320.

Guess that means we need to bring back Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, eh?... since they were both in that lineup with the high +/- differential.

Context can get lost sometimes when looking at these.  Like if you purely look at the most effective defensive line-ups, you'd come away thinking that Smart, Thronton, Turner, Bass and Olynyk was a formidable defensive team that won 8 out of 10 games together...  Until you realize that Marcus Thornton never started a single game for the Celtics... and at the time Thornton was here, we also had Rondo, Green, etc...  That lineup (Smart, Thornton, Turner, Bass, Olynyk) was likely getting all 42 of those minutes against back-ups... since most of those guys were back-ups at the time.  Our starting lineup would have been Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger and either Zeller or Olynyk.... so you can make the educated assumption that those 42 minutes came against bench talent... possibly in games that had already been decided.

Why are we talking about those 42 mins? I never once referenced them.

As for individual stats, you mention one needs to look at them, then reference an article about KO. I provided his DRPM - not that bad. Obviously guards are going to inflate every one's defensive stats on the team. Obviously he's benefiting from playing against a lot of 2nd units. Obviously no stats, especially defensive, are all that telling.

I just don't see why you're discounting him at C when he logged significantly more mins at C last year and his stats were significantly better. And the argument that we're giving up too much defensively with KO/Zeller/Sully/Lee on the floor together is a moot point to me - Amir's not playing 48 mins/night.

If stats indicate he's a more productive player at C - which, check his ORPM at C from last year - then it makes no sense to add him to our logjam at the 4... which is what you labeled as our primary issue in your last post.

[Celtics18]

There's nothing wrong with rim protection coming from the power forward position. I think Amir would be decent/solid in that roll.

Unfortunately last year I remember Kelly as the starting center, "It's Kelly's job to loose" I remember CBS saying that several times. I also recall what the first 10-20 games were like. He was paired with Sully as the PF granted. He eventually lost his starting job to Zeller for the entire year.

So I guess you're saying on defense the less Kelly has to move, react, and chase opposing players around, the more valuable his defense is. Makes sense.

I think the origin of this discussion is the realization that we are overflowing at the PF position and pretty much all of them are likable players.  We're reaching for ways to convince ourselves that some could be centers.

David Lee
Jared Sullinger
Amir Johnson
Kelly Olynyk
Jonas Jerbeko
Mickey Jordan

I'm interested to see all of them get minutes.   Sure, in a pinch a guy like Lee or Sully can play center, but it's not preferable.  Some folks have pointed out that Amir Johnson was effective while playing out of position at center.   Sure, Olynyk played minutes at center, but I don't believe he's a solution at that position.  I'd be curious to see what Olynyk could do with 30+ minutes at his natural PF position, though.  I think he still might have a real future.  The guy is really effective offensively.

It doesn't seem like that much of a reach when you consider that according to the site that we are all quoting our research from, he played 31% of the team's minutes at center, and the team was very effective on both sides of the ball when he played there.

According to the same site, he only played 4% of the team's minutes at power forward.  That is a significant difference. 

He didn't just "play minutes" at center.  He played the vast majority of his minutes at center.

When you parse it down to the five-man unit stuff on a team that played about 8,000 different lineups over the course of the season, it's no surprise to me that the numbers start to look wonky.

Kelly's a center.  At least that's what he was last season, an effective one. 

 

[Celtics18]

Well said TarHeel,


As you pointed out, the very basic equation here is that we are thin at the center position, overcrowded at the power forward position, and there is some evidence that Kelly played effectively as a center.

Doesn't seem like a reach to suggest that continuing to give Kelly minutes at the center position would be a good move for coach Stevens next year.

[Celtics4ever]

But the real caveat here is that CBS does not use positions like other coaches.

"Obviously everyone starts with 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s and 5s when they look at a basketball team," Stevens said. "I look at ball-handlers, wings, swings and bigs. I only have four categories. The more guys that can play the more positions, the better. Right now I think if you look at the roster, I think we have three of the four categories with a lot of depth. And I think that swing area where you can go 3-4 and play that way, that's the area we're going to have to adress as we move into the next few weeks and look at our team."

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2015/06/brad_stevens_boston_celtics_lu.html

KO is a big enough said, we have some versatility this year and flexibility.

[Smitty77]

Kelly was LESS BAD as a center vs. as a PF.  I can agree on that.

http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS20.HTM

Smitty77

[tarheelsxxiii]

Kelly was LESS BAD as a center vs. as a PF.  I can agree on that.

http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS20.HTM

Smitty77

Bad in what sense? In 64 games at 22 mpg, he had the 2nd highest ORPM among Cs last year. If you exclude players that saw less than 20 mpg, he's 9th in assist ratio (probably 12 w/out that exclusion... I just don't see a point in including the Sammy Dalembert's of the world in that comparison). He's obviously a poor rebounder, and maybe a low average defender. He spaces the floor and adds significantly to our overall +/-.

I wouldn't call him bad. No idea why I am defending him so much. Got dragged into defending a viewpoint. But I don't think he's bad, he improves our team, and still has upside.