Nets Pick?

[celticsclay]

Per Bodova odds, the Nets are tied for the 5th worst odds, along with the Wolves, Pelicans, Knicks, and Kings, to win the title. Only the Nuggets, Hornets, Magic, and the minor league Sixers have worse odds.

This would put the pick in the projected range of 5-9. Sportsbook has the same lines. People that are looking at the Nets team winning the same amount of games or a few less from last season down 4 rotation players are not providing any objective reasoning. I suggest looking at the #NBAFrontOffice thread for deeper analysis of this.

[celticsclay]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them? While not an established household Name, Anderson has consistently played 25 minutes a game on playoff teams and was quickly locked up by the wizards. Replacing these guys with Barg and an injured Thomas Robinson are also downgrades. Where is the internal improvement coming from to offset these losses and the expected decline of a 35 year old Joe Johnson and 32 year old Jarret Jack trying to guard opposing point guards 30 minutes a game?

[oldtype]

Honestly I think a lot of people just have the worst-case scenario of a Celtics pick in the 12-16 range, a Nets pick in the 14-16 range, and the Dallas pick not conveying drawn up in their heads and are convincing themselves that it's likely to avoid future disappointment.

Is all of those things happening at once to screw us over possible? Yes.

Likely? No.

[celticsclay]

Honestly I think a lot of people just have the worst-case scenario of a Celtics pick in the 12-16 range, a Nets pick in the 14-16 range, and the Dallas pick not conveying drawn up in their heads and are convincing themselves that it's likely to avoid future disappointment.

Is all of those things happening at once to screw us over possible? Yes.

Likely? No.

I completely agree with this. People formed a set of expectations after the season that the Nets were going to be a fringe playoff team high lottery team based on their 2014-2015 results and the recency bias of a decent showing in the playoffs against the Hawks. Since that time they

Traded their 1 big man that still had some upset, and was a solid defensive player (Plumlee)
Lost their starting point guard (Deron Williams)
Lost a 25 minutes per game guy that averaged 11 pts per game in the post season (Anderson)
Lost a solid shooter that had battled injuries last year (Teletovic)
Waived the only veteran backup guard on their roster (Blake)
Announced they were going to play their young guys
Signed Barg for a minimum contract
Signed Thomas Robinson
Had Thomas Robinson suffer injury and require surgery for a tear in his meniscus

It has been a horrible horrible offseason, but guys still have it stuck in their head what they thought prior to these changes.

[GratefulCs]

Honestly I think a lot of people just have the worst-case scenario of a Celtics pick in the 12-16 range, a Nets pick in the 14-16 range, and the Dallas pick not conveying drawn up in their heads and are convincing themselves that it's likely to avoid future disappointment.

Is all of those things happening at once to screw us over possible? Yes.

Likely? No.

spot on. TP


Sometimes it's important to temper expectations

[Celtics4ever]

I think it is possible that we have two lottery picks, but not likely as we would have to miss the playoffs.   Ainge improved the team, too, it is a question of how much the other teams have improved.

[LarBrd33]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.   

[kraidstar]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.

jarrett jack is a terrible PG. go to nets dialy and look up some comments about him. brook is a great scorer but does nothing else. thad is solid. JJ is 35. barg is godawful, and will be out of hte league soon.
the rest of the team is abysmal, pretty much all 3rd-stirngers. if there are any injuries the nets will be fielding 3rd-stinrgers as starters.

[Evantime34]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.

I do expect injuries. They have a real lack of depth and when there is no depth starters play heavy minutes. When starters play heavy minutes they are susceptible to injuries.

Their depth is such that if any of their starters gets hurt they are pretty much screwed.

[max215]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.

I see your baseless claim and I raise you one fact backed by evidence: the Nets were TERRIBLE without Williams. From January 5th through January 30th, Williams played in just one game, totalling 4 minutes played. The Nets finished this stretch with a record of 2-11. It's not really debatable, the Nets are significantly worse without Williams.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willide01/gamelog/2015/

[Celtics18]

Cleveland
Washington
Atlanta
Chicago
Milwaukee
Boston
Indiana
Miami

Better than Brooklyn.

Orlando
Toronto
Charlotte

Quite possibly better than Brooklyn.

Philly
Detroit
New York

Probably worse than Brooklyn.

[Evantime34]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.

I see your baseless claim and I raise you one fact backed by evidence: the Nets were TERRIBLE without Williams. From January 5th through January 30th, Williams played in just one game, totalling 4 minutes played. The Nets finished this stretch with a record of 2-11. It's not really debatable, the Nets are significantly worse without Williams.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willide01/gamelog/2015/

Although I would like to agree with you since I think the Nets will be bad and I'm on your side of the argument...

The Nets happened to lose 8 of those 11 games to teams that made the playoffs/finished the season with a better record. In other words their opponent mattered.

[Birdman]

I say 1-3...Lopez wont play a full year, Johnson will be traded, no bench

[kraidstar]

The nets squeak into the playoffs next year.

Any reasoning behind this?

Yes.  First, the East is terrible.  Second, some have suggested that removing Darren Williams could be a plus.  Third, they were a playoff team last year.  Fourth, they will go all out to win since they do not have their draft pick (from the coached to the players).  They DO NOT want to hand the Celts a lottery.  And finally, don't like to get my hopes up because we all know luck has never been on our side when it comes to the draft.  With our luck, they will all stay healthy and overachieve.

And did I mention the East is terrible?

I agree with Droop.   They look capable of winning at least 35 games.  I actually see them being on a par with the Celtics.  Both teams should win between 35-45.

They finished 13-6.  They are as likely as the Celtics to finish with less than 30 wins.

You realize they lost alan anderson, Deron Williams, Teletovic, and Plumlee who were 4 rotation players for them?

C'mon...

Teletovic - didn't play during the second half of the season
Plumlee - Was down to 13 minutes over the final month and 8 minutes in the playoffs
Anderson - I mean... ok?

Losing Deron might hurt a bit?  Jarrett Jack is a serviceable PG.  Joe Johnson still has game.  Brook Lopez was sensational over the final couple months (20/10/2),  Thad Young provided a major upgrade over Garnett... adding Bargnani might help a bit...

People expecting that team to finish bottom 6 must expect injuries.   That's likely a fringe playoff team in the East.

I see your baseless claim and I raise you one fact backed by evidence: the Nets were TERRIBLE without Williams. From January 5th through January 30th, Williams played in just one game, totalling 4 minutes played. The Nets finished this stretch with a record of 2-11. It's not really debatable, the Nets are significantly worse without Williams.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willide01/gamelog/2015/

TP

as mediocre as deron has been, at least he got the ball moving around. jack is FAR worse, he gets a few assists, but turns the ball over a lot and chucks up shots like you wouldn't believe. their other starters are also mediocre passers, and none are athletic scorers. no slashing whatsoever. they are in huge trouble offensively.
they are SLOW.
and thad young might be the only plus-defender on the team. that is very bad.
nets will be brutal.

[Smartacus]

13-15.

21 votes for 4 to 6? For a team that has no incetentive to tank. That plays in the east. That will still have Brook Lopez (injury prone he's but nobody thought Ilgauskas would be able to stay healthy after the first half of his career). That will probably be able to resign Joe Johnson to play out the final years of his career. With an owner with deep pockets. With a coach that lead Memphis to its highest win total ever the year he was fired, Hollins hasn't missed the playoffs in years. That will have cap space.

This team is going to land a pick in the Philly/Minney/Sac town bottom feeder slot?

Sorry to be overly negative but I think some folks around here are way over valuing this pick.