Cs were 24-12 after they went to a small ball lineup on 2/3, but that includes an early 3 game stretch against NYK, DEN, and PHI as well as the last 5 games of the season that were gimmies after the Cavs figured that putting a full effort to win a meaningless game wasn't smart. I prefer the 20-10 record of the Cs after IT first got in the lineup. He is not a great 2-way player, but he was a perfect fit when he gave the Cs a 4th quarter scorer.
20-10. Subtract the last 5 wins gets you to 15-10. Pro-rated over 82 games that projects to 49 wins. Adjust that 49 win projection downward 10% (being conservative) for a slightly weaker schedule over that stretch gets you down to 44 wins before taking into account talent changes to the roster. Rookies might add a game, improvement from Smart, who knows what from KO or Sully in a contract year, nice solid, if not spectacular additions in Lee and Johnson and some carryover or synergy from the core group substantially returning. The loss of Pressey, Wallace, Datome, Babb and Bass from the season-end roster won’t cause any deep harm.
Going from a 44 game projection based on the core roster for the last part of 2014-15 season to 50 wins based on talent additions, player and HC development, and improved cohesion and confidence is not much of a reach. I’ll put my marker down for 50. Not yet a pretender, never mind a contender, but will continue to surprise and it puts us in better position for the 2016 offseason. Posters who project a falloff into the lower 30s will hopefully try to give some rational support and not just pull a number out of their posterior to get attention.