Celtics too talented not to win 50 games in the East.

[Celtics18]

That is absolutely not what is being said.

read:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

read again:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

Read a third time:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all. 

[hodgy03038]

I think 50 games is a little aggressive of a projection. 3 teams won 50 or more games in the East: ATL, CLE & CHI

There are at least a few teams that will improve in the East (including us) but 10 more wins I think is aggressive.

7 teams in the West won 50+ games.

I think they will win 45 which I think is a big improvement and to get to 50 they need to acquire some real important pieces (a star?) between now and the all star break.

[PhoSita]

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all.

I'll chime in here just to make clear the author's intent -- yes, I think I chose "crowing" because it brings to mind birds obnoxiously cawing in a tree without much thought put into what they're doing.

Not saying it was so calculated, I just used the word that came to mind, but that's probably where my subconscious was at.

Allow me to rephrase to be less inflammatory:

I don't think that Celtics fans would be nearly as optimistic about a Sixers or Nets team featuring the previously mentioned core group of players as they are about their own team.

While I completely understand why that is, my intention is to try and get people to acknowledge it.

[LooseCannon]

Last season, the Celtics were 18th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating.  I believe the Celtics should be reasonable bets to improve on both side of the ball.

Boston can crack the top ten on defense and be average to slightly above average on offense.  Is there anyone who denies this is a non-ludicrous possibility?

That is a combination that certainly has a legitimate chance to win 50 games.  Will they?  Maybe not, but it's silly to say they have no chance at it.

[oldtype]

I think 50 wins is a good best-case scenario goal to set for this group of players. "Too talented not to win 50 games," on the other hand, is probably a bit hyperbolic to say the least.

The good news is that if we do win 50 wins and make the 2nd round of the playoffs or take a good team to 7 in the first round, the narrative around this team will start changing. Some of our young players may start receiving star or near-star recognition, and that should help us a lot in terms of getting value on trades and signing free agents.

[footey]

This does not feel like a 50 win team. More like a 40-45 win team.

[D.o.s.]

That is absolutely not what is being said.

read:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

read again:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

Read a third time:

I don't think Celts fans would be crowing about how good the Nets or Sixers were going to be this year if the heart of their roster was Isaiah Thomas, David Lee, Amir Johnson, Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, and Evan Turner.

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all.

I agree, I think Pho chose the wrong word. I would have gone with bleating.  Maybe proselytizing.

Regardless, that's not really the point of the discussion, and while you may not think my input has very much merit, I feel it's important to point out that you're (willfully?) misinterpreting what is being said.

[smicker16]

50 wins is a little on the optimistic side for sure, but i could see them around that number based on the coach mainly and if things go well.  I would estimate less myself around 42 as other teams have improved so it wll be tougher to get some wins this year.

I think the main issue though is that even though I could see this team winning that many games i could still see them losing a quick first round series in the playoffs.  the team is built for the regular season with the depth they have and the types of players they have, but when it comes to the playoffs they just do not have the star talent.  like others have said though it would be great exposure to have the team play so well as it would help with recruiting stars here as well as boosting trade value for some of our players.

[konkmv]

35-45 wins... lets see if we are healthy.. ifsome guys improve more... if other teams improve less... too many ifs.... bulls cavs hawks heat bucks wizzards are better i believe... 2 spots to fight for... raptors charlotte nets pistons are not bad

[Evantime34]

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all.

I'll chime in here just to make clear the author's intent -- yes, I think I chose "crowing" because it brings to mind birds obnoxiously cawing in a tree without much thought put into what they're doing.

Not saying it was so calculated, I just used the word that came to mind, but that's probably where my subconscious was at.

Allow me to rephrase to be less inflammatory:

I don't think that Celtics fans would be nearly as optimistic about a Sixers or Nets team featuring the previously mentioned core group of players as they are about their own team.

While I completely understand why that is, my intention is to try and get people to acknowledge it.

At the same time if we had the Sixers team and were watching every game I think people would be significantly less excited about that rebuild.

This blog has routinely killed a lot of players because the team wasn't winning. Even Paul Pierce got this treatment earlier in his career.

While there is a strong bias towards Celtics players from a lot of posters here (myself included), there is a strong bias against Celtics players (call it the grass is alway greener effect) from a different group of posters. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

For example: saying there is no way this team doesn't win 50 games is patently ridiculous. Even if this team does win 50 games next year there will be lots of moments we can look back to and say "if this thing went poorly we wouldn't have won nearly as many games". That being said I think it is equally ridiculous to say there is absolutely no way the C's win as many games as last year.

In general speaking in absolutes like that gets the opposing side up in arms and is pretty much useless.

[Who]

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all.

I'll chime in here just to make clear the author's intent -- yes, I think I chose "crowing" because it brings to mind birds obnoxiously cawing in a tree without much thought put into what they're doing.

Not saying it was so calculated, I just used the word that came to mind, but that's probably where my subconscious was at.

Allow me to rephrase to be less inflammatory:

I don't think that Celtics fans would be nearly as optimistic about a Sixers or Nets team featuring the previously mentioned core group of players as they are about their own team.

While I completely understand why that is, my intention is to try and get people to acknowledge it.

At the same time if we had the Sixers team and were watching every game I think people would be significantly less excited about that rebuild.

This blog has routinely killed a lot of players because the team wasn't winning. Even Paul Pierce got this treatment earlier in his career.

While there is a strong bias towards Celtics players from a lot of posters here (myself included), there is a strong bias against Celtics players (call it the grass is alway greener effect) from a different group of posters. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

For example: saying there is no way this team doesn't win 50 games is patently ridiculous. Even if this team does win 50 games next year there will be lots of moments we can look back to and say "if this thing went poorly we wouldn't have won nearly as many games". That being said I think it is equally ridiculous to say there is absolutely no way the C's win as many games as last year.

In general speaking in absolutes like that gets the opposing side up in arms and is pretty much useless.

I think fans for the most part buy into whatever long term plan the ownership / front office gives them (so long as they do not hate GM or owner) whatever that plan may be. Not the entire fan base but usually a strong portion (clear majority) of it.

It isn't until a couple of years in that fans start to get antsy about things and begin to turn against the plan and question GM / owner ... and that happens with every single plan whether it's a full rebuild like Hinkie or a retool on the run like Ainge. And with each passing trade deadline + offseason, more and more of the fan base will turn against the GM.

After about 4-5 years, if the team is not on a clear path to a title, the fan base will be split near 50-50 ... those who still believe in GM's plan and those who don't.

Same same. Regardless of the plan.

They sell it. Fans (by and large) buy it. Growing portion of fan base begin to turn on plan / GM if success does not happen quickly. By 4-5 years, it's around 50-50. If it lasts longer, fans completely turn against GM and GM is usually fired. If GM figures it out soon after that, fan base loves him again. Same same.

Fan base will buy into any plan so long as a clear coherent long term plan is well sold to them.

It is the nature of fan-hood = to believe in the team. Everyone wants to believe in the team and if the team gives them a clear plan, most fans will happily go along with whatever that plan is.

[Evantime34]

The use of the word "crowing" subtly changes the connotation of what Pho's saying in regards to those of us with a more positive outlook on the coming season than his own.

You should be aware of that, being a master at reading comprehension and all.

I'll chime in here just to make clear the author's intent -- yes, I think I chose "crowing" because it brings to mind birds obnoxiously cawing in a tree without much thought put into what they're doing.

Not saying it was so calculated, I just used the word that came to mind, but that's probably where my subconscious was at.

Allow me to rephrase to be less inflammatory:

I don't think that Celtics fans would be nearly as optimistic about a Sixers or Nets team featuring the previously mentioned core group of players as they are about their own team.

While I completely understand why that is, my intention is to try and get people to acknowledge it.

At the same time if we had the Sixers team and were watching every game I think people would be significantly less excited about that rebuild.

This blog has routinely killed a lot of players because the team wasn't winning. Even Paul Pierce got this treatment earlier in his career.

While there is a strong bias towards Celtics players from a lot of posters here (myself included), there is a strong bias against Celtics players (call it the grass is alway greener effect) from a different group of posters. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

For example: saying there is no way this team doesn't win 50 games is patently ridiculous. Even if this team does win 50 games next year there will be lots of moments we can look back to and say "if this thing went poorly we wouldn't have won nearly as many games". That being said I think it is equally ridiculous to say there is absolutely no way the C's win as many games as last year.

In general speaking in absolutes like that gets the opposing side up in arms and is pretty much useless.

I think fans for the most part buy into whatever long term plan the ownership / front office gives them (so long as they do not hate GM or owner) whatever that plan may be. Not the entire fan base but usually a strong portion (clear majority) of it.

It isn't until a couple of years in that fans start to get antsy about things and begin to turn against the plan and question GM / owner ... and that happens with every single plan whether it's a full rebuild like Hinkie or a retool on the run like Ainge. And with each passing trade deadline + offseason, more and more of the fan base will turn against the GM.

After about 4-5 years, if the team is not on a clear path to a title, the fan base will be split near 50-50 ... those who still believe in GM's plan and those who don't.

Same same. Regardless of the plan.

They sell it. Fans (by and large) buy it. Growing portion of fan base begin to turn on plan / GM if success does not happen quickly. By 4-5 years, it's around 50-50. If it lasts longer, fans completely turn against GM and GM is usually fired. If GM figures it out soon after that, fan base loves him again. Same same.

Fan base will buy into any plan so long as a clear coherent long term plan is well sold to them.

It is the nature of fan-hood = to believe in the team. Everyone wants to believe in the team and if the team gives them a clear plan, most fans will happily go along with whatever that plan is.

Well if Celticsblog is any indication it looks like half of the fans are already not buying Ainge's plan. It seems at about 50/50 now and it's only been 2 seasons.

[PhoSita]

Celticsblog is not a fair representation of the fanbase as a whole. 

The type of person who posts on a fan forum like this is far more likely to be an armchair GM type who likes to think about, talk about, argue about, and create elaborate hypothetical scenarios about rebuilding strategies.

It's a lot harder for that type of person -- and I include myself in that category, emphatically -- to sit back and say, "Well, Ainge did it once before and it's his job to build the team up, not mine.  I trust him to figure it out eventually."


I agree with Who's assessment.  Celticsblog is just not a good lithmus test for it.  I imagine the majority of the fanbase is pretty content with where the Celts are at right now, though I think many Celts fans probably have unrealistic expectations about how quickly the Cs will be contenders again.

I mean, I've read Boston Globe columnists suggesting that it's a near certainty the Celts will be contenders again at some point before 2020.  To me that indicates a fundamental lack of understanding of just how difficult it is to construct a genuine contender in the NBA.

[Beat LA]

Given the logjam at the 2 and 4 positions, I expect the season to play out much like last year - Stevens plays the guys who are ready to play now and sends anyone who needs actual nba coaching and minutes to develop to Maine, where, for the most post, nothing is accomplished, and the guy(s) get discouraged.  Oh, they might have a breakout game or even a good one if they're actually called up, sure, but one mistake and they're back to the d-league , effectively wasting a year of their career(s), which does nothing for them, or us, now or down the road.  Not a great plan.

In the meantime, and usually by the point in the year where he has found a winning formula, Ainge trades half the roster at the deadline, regardless of whether or not the team is floundering, throwing everything into disarray for at least a couple of weeks until Brad finds another winning lineup, we end the year on a hot streak, finishing with about 42 wins (if I had to guess), sneak into the playoffs, perhaps win a game or two but bow out in the first round, none of our draft picks turn into a top five position, Ainge has, at best, a 'meh' draft, as he had this year, and he makes another strange signing and/or trade in July that leaves everyone scratching their heads.  This cycle will continue to happen until one of three things transpires -

1). Ainge pulls his head out of his ass and actually drafts well.

2). Danny fails to parlay any of these 'assets' into a superstar via trade because no owner is dumb enough to take all of our crap for their franchise player, or

3). Ownership finally wakes up and realizes that Ainge really has no plan except to wait for someone to practically give us a superstar and sends Danny packing, which cannot happen soon enough, imo.

End of rant .

[GreenWarrior]

Celtics are no closer to a championship today than they were last yr.

and if they win 50 games they'll still be no closer.

but if winning a lot of games is the goal? then congrats!

I disagree with this point.  I think that if this young Celtics team can manage 50 wins, they'll be in a much better position to continue building towards contender status.

For this team to win 50, some of our young guys--like Smart and KO--would have to show significant improvement.  I don't see how that would represent a step back as you seem to be implying.

this team hit it's stride when they were forced to play Bass and other vets more last yr. I expect the same again this yr., KO and Sully will probably be the same - Sully usually starts out hot and disappears later in the yr.

that's not to say the kids didn't contribute last yr. but I think Smart had more to do with that than Sully & KO but that's my opinion...

the reason why I say if "this team" wins 50 it won't be a true indicator as to how good they are is because we had a roster that pretty much changed every month and we still won 40 games. I don't think winning 10 more games is that outrageous with this cast. sure Stevens did a hell of a job with the ever changing roster, but(and this is the thing I don't get that C's fans fail to acknowledge) - the East was horrible last yr.