Celtics too talented not to win 50 games in the East.

[D.o.s.]

Let's just say, if the Celtics meet up with the crybaby king and Cavaliers in the playoffs next year, the outcome could be much different.

Its the time of year to dream, but it is not a pipe dream.

50 wins?   Y not?

.

[Celtics18]

You mean when he made a comment about the culture of the current Celtics squad being different than the culture of that Knicks squad you randomly listed?

Seems fair to me.

The Knicks squad wasn't listed "randomly."

I thought of that team because they also relied heavily on David Lee and a 5'9'' sparkplug point guard, supported by a roster of largely interchangeable role players.

Of course we'd like to believe our team has a superior "culture" and that there's just something different about the way our team approaches the game etc etc but what proof do we really have of that? A two month stretch where they out-hustled a series of opponents playing out the string until the playoffs started?

Bingo!

[D.o.s.]

You mean when he made a comment about the culture of the current Celtics squad being different than the culture of that Knicks squad you randomly listed?

Seems fair to me.

The Knicks squad wasn't listed "randomly."

I thought of that team because they also relied heavily on David Lee and a 5'9'' sparkplug point guard, supported by a roster of largely interchangeable role players.

Of course we'd like to believe our team has a superior "culture" and that there's just something different about the way our team approaches the game etc etc but what proof do we really have of that? A two month stretch where they out-hustled a series of opponents playing out the string until the playoffs started?

Bingo!

[Celtics18]

At the risk of being called a filthy naysayer who only posts to urinate all over the hopes and dreams of the real Celtics fans who post here, I strongly disagree with the original poster and question the validity of the analysis that lead him or her to this conclusion.

Posting on the internet is risky business.

It doesn't do any good to pout.

I just don't want to hurt anyone's feelings.

Haha.

[LGC88]

I think we will be closer to 50 wins than 40 wins. We shouldn't expect 50 wins though because that is our ceiling and there isn't a high chance we win that many games, but there is a chance.

For the Celtics to win 50 games most of the following things need to happen.
1. Top 10 defense
2. Lee and Johnson needs to play like they did in 2013
3. Bradley, Thomas and Crowder need to shoot much better than last year from 3 (all 3 were below career average)
4. Smart needs to take a leap forward
5. Great end of game execution (great record in close games)

I agree with that.
And I think that will happen.
We have more threat offensively and better pick n roll. Our guards will be more open at the 3s and might improve their %.
Amir will improve our defense and will be utilized accordingly in the offense event (no more iso Derozan and Lou for him). Lee will be pumped up. He's coming back from a well recovered injury and he was great off the bench with GS, producing crucial minutes the last 2 games.
He will play for his next contract and he has proven is a team oriented guy.
Smart is working on it with a fully recovered ankle.
As for the game execution, I don't see anybody disturbing what Brad is producing since January.

[fandrew]

Don't know if this has been said, but I can agree that that the Celtics could win 50 games in the East this season. They are very deep at middle of the road talent. They have a lot of young guys who can play a role. But while they are deep at mid level talent, they don't have a single high level talent. In the playoffs, I still see this team as a first round out. The depth just won't help them, and the talent level will be exposed and preyed upon.

Can they win regular season games where other teams are not playing their stars 38-40 minutes a game? Yes. Can they do that in the playoffs, really doubtful.

[PhoSita]

Bingo!

So the answer to my question is yes, you're basing this belief on a two month sample during the garbage time of the NBA season.

Got it.

 

[PhoSita]

Disagree on your exclusion of KO from the list of best guys. 

I should say, I like Kelly.  If Lee weren't on board, I'd hope to see Kelly win the starting job and play 28-30 minutes a night.  I'd be very interested to see what sort of numbers KO could put up if he were made a bigger, more consistent part of the offense.

That would require him to be prepared to take on that kind of role in the offense, and not foul out, however.


Nonetheless, the Celts have a solid 4-man rotation in the frontcourt.  Between Lee, Amir, Zeller, and KO, I think the Celts can get 40 points, 20 rebounds, and a smattering of hustle and passing stats from their big men every night.


Of course, the presence of Sullinger, Jerebko, and Mickey, plus the possibility of going with smaller lineups featuring Crowder at the 4, means that the Celts may not ever get to settle into a regular big man rotation like that.

Right there is part of my problem with the roster right now.  I don't see how this team will ever get into a rhythm with a regular rotation so long as there's such a long list of interchangeable parts for Stevens to tinker with.

[fairweatherfan]

We're not going to be as bad as we were in the first 60% of the season, but not as good as we were in the last 40% either. 

Even in the East, barring a major trade or a breakout by someone like Smart, I'd say our realistic ceiling is around 45 wins.

[csfansince60s]

Indiana, Miami, Charlotte and Detroit will also all be significantly better.

A lot of things went "right" for us last year for us to even have made the playoffs. I think that things going "right" meant that things actually went "wrong" for us and making the playoffs cost us Turner or Winslow. I would rather us fought like crazy and just missed, but that's me.

In our last 11 games, we went 9-2.

We beat the spent, crap, Raptors who shot all they had in the first half of the season twice, the Knicks, Hornets, Pacers, Pistons, Bucks (last game of season when they NOTHING to play for, and we lost to them two weeks before, when they did have something to play for) and Cavs twice, annihilating them the second time when they were resting everyone and had nothing to play for. (Hey, how'd that playoff series go against those Cavs that we "beat" twice).

We had 40 wins last year, partly through grit, good coaching and IT, but a lot having to do with happenstance.

I agree that we are better than we were last year. So are a bunch of other not so L'Eastern teams, Miami and Indy specifically as well as Charlotte and Detroit. As we are currently constituted, I hope we win 40 this year. Hell, I hope we win 60, but I think 50 is only a possibility with another strong acquisition by Ainge.

[Boris Badenov]

I think our overall talent is definitely higher this year, if you look at the roster 1 though 15. But as Koz said it's more that we added depth than improved our top talent.

But I think the real issue will be how Stevens uses the new personnel. I think anyone would agree we got a lot out of some borderline guys (ET, Crowder, Jerebko) last year, and the whole seemed greater than the sum of the parts. It sure looks like some of that was due to coaching (playing ET as point SF for example...).

The question is, was that something Stevens could only do with that group? Or is he just a whiz at finding the right lineup and style when given different players? Can he do it again with two new frontcourt starters? Does ET move to the bench in favor of Crowder at SF? If so, who sets up the offense? Etc.

I lean toward believing that Stevens will do a great job again, maybe leading us to 45 wins or so, but it remains to be seen. And if the pieces somehow don't fit, we will be pretty bad.

[Evantime34]

5. Great end of game execution (great record in close games)

This is an important point.  Last year, the Celts started out the year as one of the worst end-of-game teams in the league, from what I recall. 

Toward the end of the year, a big part of the great run the team went on was their vast improvement in tight game situations.

A big part of that was the addition of Isaiah Thomas and willingness of Bradley, Smart, and Turner to step up to the big moment, unlike guys who had been traded away earlier in the season (Rondo, Green).

Will they be able to keep it up next season, though?

They actually finished the year with less wins than their Pythagorean win total, which indicates on the whole they actually came up with the short end of the stick. Historically teams that under perform their Pythagorean win total out perform it the next year. So I agree when people say they think the Celtics luck will turn this year after last year, but probably in the opposite way they meant it (I expect the Celtics to be be better at the end of games overall than they were last year).

A lot of people seem to completely dismiss the run at the end of the year. We did end up beating playoff teams that battled for playoff seeding so I'm not a fan of people just dismissing those second half wins because the Celtics tried harder than other teams. If trying harder than other teams was the reason they won a lot during that stretch why do people expect that to stop? The C's still have the same players who try hard night in and night out.

As for the Knicks comparison I think it's kind of weak. The Celtics were 12th in defense last year 8th during their stretch run. The Knicks were 23rd. The Knicks actually outperformered the Pythag win total where the Celtics underperformed which statistically indicates the Knicks were luckier.  I also think the Nate Robinson/Thomas comparison is weak because Nate was inefficient and took terrible shots, Thomas lives at the free throw line which means he is more consistent.

It might be a defense mechanism for fans to not get their hopes up too high but the way people completely disregard the end to the season irks me.

[Neurotic Guy]

I don't consider it pessimistic to guess that this team could be a 35-40 win team next year.  They could be.   It's impossible to know for sure the impact Amir and Lee will have.  And its impossible to know who and how players will improve.  It is also a critical point that the C's win total last year was bolstered by a late surge that likely included wins against teams less motivated at that point to win.

I DO consider it pessimistic if someone out there is not excited about the upcoming season.  There are so many possibilities.  Trades, player development, other team's performances influencing the draft.   

I watch every game anyway -- but next year it seems like there will be so much to look for.  I can't wait. Probably the most excited I've ever been for a team that has zero chance to win a championship.

[KG Living Legend]

I like you're enthusiasm and I hope you're right.

But there's no guarentee Lee has anything left. The Celtics don't have a legit starting center on the roster. All of our young guys have something to prove in their games. This team snuck up on a lot of people last season and they'll be less likely to do that again this season. Plus, they went on that great streak in the second part of the season when a lot of teams in the East had fully resigned themsevles to tanking.

I still hope you're right, but I'm less certain than you.

Tyler Zeller is probably in the bottom third of the starting centers in the NBA, but he is legitimate. He will get into the middle third if he can just develop a more consistent mental approach. He seems to occasionally get frustrated when someone more athletic pushes him around, and he disappears for stretches. More often than not, though, he plays a nice two way game.

I think many of our fans think this team is all smoke and mirrors. We won 40 with a bullet last year, and as Bill Parcell used to say, you are what your record says you are. We were very young and the roster was very unstable in the first half of last year, but we have some nice players. Given how young it is, the players we had almost have to improve, and we got some new guys that should help with our biggest weaknesses. We aren't going to scare any of the top tier teams, but if Ainge can make one more decent move to balance the roster,  we might just get to 50. The East only has a few decent teams.

 Yeah OK, if you want to go with Parcel's, are record after getting rid of Rondo and Jeff Green, and picking up Thomas we were 25 and 12 and one of the best records in the league.

[mctyson]

I think we can be as good as Washington was last year, as result everyone here would be please with assuming we don't have a major trade.