Embiid rebroke foot , wil miss next season too !

[Moranis]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--76ers-center-joel-embiid-to-have-surgery-tuesday-145903835.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Surgery scheduled for Tuesday, apparently a bone graft similar to the surgery Durant just had.  He will likely miss the season.

[MBunge]

So, there were rumblings about Embiid's foot in mid-June, the official word came in mid-July and he's finally having surgery in mid-August?  There's something screwy about that.

Mike

[Big333223]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

[hpantazo]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

All of the remaining Nets picks and KO or Sully.

[Granath]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

Something, but not nearly the bonanza that hpantazo would give up. That makes no sense - 2 or 3 very likely lottery picks for Embiid? Laughable.

The more you look, the less Embiid becomes attractive. By the time he heals, he will be almost 23 years old before playing his first meaningful game in the NBA. This is no longer a 20 year old wunderkind. That's a lot of rust on any player. Then remember that Embiid was a project coming out of college - raw, undisciplined with poor fundamentals. The physical attributes and the quick feet made him very attractive. Now he's had multiple foot surgeries.

How long will it take him to round back into shape after getting healthy?
How long does it take to shake off the rust?
How massive is his learning curve?
How much, if anything, did the surgeries take out of his single best physical asset (his footwork)?
How good is his motivation to get back to the game (some ugly reports came out about this earlier this year)?

Quite a few people were talking about Robert Upshaw needing to be drafted at #16 because he was such a remarkable talent. The guy didn't get drafted at all. NBA execs don't like risks like that. Like Upshaw (though not to the same extent), here are far too many questions to give up many prime assets on this guy until he proves something on the court. With hist track record - injuries, sitting out a year, long layoff from the game, extremely raw, questionable conditioning, questionable attitude - Embiid would be lucky to get drafted in the top 15-20 this past year. Would I take a flier with something like the Dallas draft pick? Sure. Maybe even that and one of our young players like Young or Rozier. But nothing more than that.

[ederson]

2 first round picks (at least one lottery protected).

How many players have recovered after being injured for 2 years? It`s not acl or achilles injury but still i can`t see him turning into half the player he was projected to be.

When he will be cleared to play he will be more raw than the average rookie, older than the average rookie and +2 years without real action.

[Eja117]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

[Yoki_IsTheName]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

[hpantazo]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

[slamtheking]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

oh hell no.

all the Nets picks?   are you crazy?  no way anyone could reasonably think that Embiid could expect to have a career that's not going to be interrupted by injury.  If he were deemed healthy for the following year, I'd consider dealing from our positions of depth like PF and guard and possibly a mid-to-late first with a couple of seconds.

I do not like paying a lot for damaged or previously-damaged goods

[hpantazo]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

oh hell no.

all the Nets picks?   are you crazy?  no way anyone could reasonably think that Embiid could expect to have a career that's not going to be interrupted by injury.  If he were deemed healthy for the following year, I'd consider dealing from our positions of depth like PF and guard and possibly a mid-to-late first with a couple of seconds.

I do not like paying a lot for damaged or previously-damaged goods

I think you missed the assumption of the question that was asked. The original question posted was if the celtics doctors state that he will be healthy long term.

[hpantazo]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

You wouldn't believe your own team doctors? Then you should fire them instead of lowballing the other team.

[Celtics4ever]

Greg Oden clone presently, I would not waste a pick on him.

[Granath]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

hpantazo, mythical is the right word because you don't address any of the points I made above. Even if healthy you have a raw, no longer exceptionally young, entirely inexperienced, questionably motivated and conditioned guy coming off a 2 1/2 year layoff. At this stage there is no reason to project Embiid to be a stud NBA Center. He was always a boom or bust prospect and the negative factors above continue to increase that bust chance.

The best "comps" for Embiid are Upshaw and Noel.

A healthy, 19 year old Noel would have been the #1 pick overall in 2013. The only problem was a one-off injury that was going to take him out for the season, one that he was fully expected to recover from. The guy averaged 10/10 and 4 blocks per game at Kentucky. No attitude problem, no conditioning problem, considered more polished than Embiid - if slightly less upside - and a limited layoff. He dropped to 6th in the draft.

Robert Upshaw was a problem child - drugs, kicked off teams, questionable conditioning, a bad seed. But undoubtedly he had (has) massive talent. Averaged 11/8 and 4 blocks per game and was 21 years old. He went undrafted. In short, at some point other issues like attitude, conditioning and age outweigh "potential".

Another way to look at it is look at Frank Kaminsky. People don't talk about Kaminsky's potential when drafting him. They talk about his ability to contribute immediately with limited upside due to his age. Embiid will probably be older than Kaminsky when he plays his first meaningful NBA game. Embiid has far more potential but Kaminsky has far, far more polish to his game. Kaminsky went 9th this year. Embiid wouldn't be drafted above Kaminsky.

This doesn't mean that Embiid can't or won't be a star. But it does mean his prospects for being one are significantly less than they were and you have to re-evaluate his worth to calculate all of the additional risk factors that have come up the past two years. Embiid will be almost 23 before he plays his first meaningful game in the NBA. He averaged 11/8 with 3 blocks per game at Kansas. Given that his age, injury history and length of layoff all are worse than Noel, he's got to be worth less than the #6 pick. He no longer carries the value of a top 5 and not even a top 10 pick anymore. As such, giving away the farm wouldn't make any sense - it's a massive overpay.

[hpantazo]

If Embiid were to become available and Celtic doctors looked him over and said, "He's definitely done for this season but afterward we have no reason to think he won't have a normal career from a health perspective," how much would you be willing to trade for him, if anything?

I wouldn't believe them and would low ball it. Maybe James Young a 2nd and a late first. And Ko. Maybe

I'd trade a first round pick for him, easy.

I understand the high risk, but with plenty of first round picks to spare, I'd be willing to take that gamble.

Well, the assumption in the question asked was that the celtics medical staff clears him and predicts a clean bill of health going forward, which is why I said the rest of our Nets picks. IF we assume he's healthy long term after the surgery , then he's totally worth all those picks and more. He's the mythical superstar big man celtics nation has been dreaming of.

hpantazo, mythical is the right word because you don't address any of the points I made above. Even if healthy you have a raw, no longer exceptionally young, entirely inexperienced, questionably motivated and conditioned guy coming off a 2 1/2 year layoff. At this stage there is no reason to project Embiid to be a stud NBA Center. He was always a boom or bust prospect and the negative factors above continue to increase that bust chance.

The best "comps" for Embiid are Upshaw and Noel.

A healthy, 19 year old Noel would have been the #1 pick overall in 2013. The only problem was a one-off injury that was going to take him out for the season, one that he was fully expected to recover from. The guy averaged 10/10 and 4 blocks per game at Kentucky. No attitude problem, no conditioning problem, considered more polished than Embiid - if slightly less upside - and a limited layoff. He dropped to 6th in the draft.

Robert Upshaw was a problem child - drugs, kicked off teams, questionable conditioning, a bad seed. But undoubtedly he had (has) massive talent. Averaged 11/8 and 4 blocks per game and was 21 years old. He went undrafted. In short, at some point other issues like attitude, conditioning and age outweigh "potential".

Another way to look at it is look at Frank Kaminsky. People don't talk about Kaminsky's potential when drafting him. They talk about his ability to contribute immediately with limited upside due to his age. Embiid will probably be older than Kaminsky when he plays his first meaningful NBA game. Embiid has far more potential but Kaminsky has far, far more polish to his game. Kaminsky went 9th this year. Embiid wouldn't be drafted above Kaminsky.

This doesn't mean that Embiid can't or won't be a star. But it does mean his prospects for being one are significantly less than they were and you have to re-evaluate his worth to calculate all of the additional risk factors that have come up the past two years. Embiid will be almost 23 before he plays his first meaningful game in the NBA. He averaged 11/8 with 3 blocks per game at Kansas. Given that his age, injury history and length of layoff all are worse than Noel, he's got to be worth less than the #6 pick. He no longer carries the value of a top 5 and not even a top 10 pick anymore. As such, giving away the farm wouldn't make any sense - it's a massive overpay.

I think you heavily overestimate how 'raw' Embiid is. He has already shown much more developed skills than the players you compare him to. He has far less years of experience, which makes his skill level even more impressive.

He already can score with an array of post moves with great foot work and with either hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKQGEvWlacA

There is also zero evidence regarding a questionable work ethic. Immaturity , yes, but all indications are that he is a hungry, highly competitive person with an alpha mentality.

He has also grown to be 7'2 since the last time we saw him on the floor. http://www.crossingbroad.com/2015/06/joel-embiid-told-brett-brown-hes-72-now.html

Sure, there has never been a player who missed the first two seasons from injury and went on to dominate, BUT, there has never been a player who has still been growing at his size with his skills. His continued growth very likely impacted his ability to heal his navicular bone. Bones are weaker as they continue to grow. This is an unprecedented situation, making comparisons to past players with foot injuries just doesn't work.

His game is also not based heavily on athleticism as it is on size and skill, so even if he loses a little after surgery , it should not impact his ability to dominate.