The Case for Starting RJ Hunter

[crimson_stallion]

At the end of the day Hunter is a rookie, it's going to take time before he's ready to make an impact in the NBA.

Look at Sully and KO - they were honestly two of the most NBA ready draftees we've had in Boston over the years because they had such high Basketball IQ and they had skills that translated well to the NBA.  Even despite this, both players looked pretty bad in the first half of their rookie years, and didn't really show genuine competence until after the All-Star break in their first seasons.

Similar deal with Smart, even though his defense was excellent from day one.

I think Hunter will need at least until the All-Star break (if not a full season) before he gets to the point where he has adjusted to the NBA game well enough to actually really help Boston when he's on the court.

At this point in time, Avery Bradley is still our best, and most proven, player at the SG spot.  He's a 15 PPG guy, he's arguably out best outside shooter, and he's a former All-Defensive team selection.

In time (maybe 1 or 2 years from now) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Rozier or Hunter pass Bradley, but not yet.

Avery Bradley is our best 3pt shooter? I think I just vomited in my mouth a little bit.

Percentage-wise, Jerebko and Johnson shot better from three last season.  Thomas shot worse with the Celtics, but had a higher 3P% overall when you include his time in Phoenix.

While this is true from a pure percentage argument, you need to also look at the number of shots taken.

* Johnson shot 41.3% on 0.8 3PA Per 36 Minutes (0.9 PP36 from Threes)
* Jerebko shot 38.6% on 4.1 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Bradley shot 35.2% on 5.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Thomas shot 37.3% on 7.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (8.1 PP36 from Threes)
* Olynyk shot 34.9% on 4.4 3PA Per 36 Minutes (4.5 PP36 from Threes)
* Smart shot 33.5% on 5.4 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Sully shot 28.3% on 4.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (3.6 PP36 from Threes)
* Crowder shot 28.2% on 3.0 3PA Per 36 Minutes (2.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Turner shot 27.7% on 1.5 3PA Per 36 Minutes (1.5 PP36 from Threes)

I think you need to look at a combination of:
* How many points the player contributed off three point shots
* The percentage the player shot on three point shots

These factors combined should give some indication of how much of a threat the player was from three.   

Looking at the list above, I'd probably rank our three point shooters (from best to worst) something like:

1) Isaiah Thomas - Clear leader
2) Jonas Jerebko - same amount of points off threes as Bradley, but shot a higher %)
3) Avery Bradley
4) Kelly Olynyk  - I take Olynyk over Smart due to consistency (two year pro, bigger sample size)
5) Marcus Smart
6) Jared Sullinger
7) Jae Crowder
8 ) Johnson (nice percentage, but lack of attempts makes sample size very small)
9) Turner

I feel there are very clear 'Tiers' here in terms of three point threat.

Tier 1 - Major Threat: Isaiah Thomas
Tier 2 - High Threat: Jerebko, Bradley 
Tier 3 - Significant Threat: Smart, Olynyk (Defense )
Tier 4 - Some Threat: Sullinger, Crowder, Johnson
Tier 5 - Minimal/No Threat: Turner, Lee, Zeller

So yeah, fair argument that Jerebko is a better three point shooter than Bradley, but Bradley wouldn't be far behind.   Honestly, I'd say they are probably about on par.

Worth noting also that Thomas and Bradley were the only guys on the roster who ranked top 4 on the team in both Three-Point Attempts (Per 36) and Three-Point Percentage. 

Also worth nothing that Bradley has only had 4 seasons in the league where he's actually played significant minutes (counting out his rookie year) and he shot around the 40% mark in two of those 4 seasons.

The two years where where he shot significantly below 40% were:
* 2012-13 (31.7%): First year back from double shoulder surgery, took time to get shot back
* 2014-15 (35.2%): Huge increase (+33%) in 3PA compared to his previous career high

Bradley's a better shooter than he's given credit for.  He's shot 36% for his career despite averaging a not-insubstantial 3.7 Attempts Per 36 Minutes. He just seems to get more unjustified hate on this forum than any other Celtics player.

[Celtics4ever]

I think he can play a point forward kind of role with his passing.  He has great court vision, basketball IQ not sure about his handle though.

4) Kelly Olynyk  - I take Olynyk over Smart due to consistency (two year pro, bigger sample size)

  Glad your not our GM with this assessement

[CelticsFanFromNYC]

At the end of the day Hunter is a rookie, it's going to take time before he's ready to make an impact in the NBA.

Look at Sully and KO - they were honestly two of the most NBA ready draftees we've had in Boston over the years because they had such high Basketball IQ and they had skills that translated well to the NBA.  Even despite this, both players looked pretty bad in the first half of their rookie years, and didn't really show genuine competence until after the All-Star break in their first seasons.

Similar deal with Smart, even though his defense was excellent from day one.

I think Hunter will need at least until the All-Star break (if not a full season) before he gets to the point where he has adjusted to the NBA game well enough to actually really help Boston when he's on the court.

At this point in time, Avery Bradley is still our best, and most proven, player at the SG spot.  He's a 15 PPG guy, he's arguably out best outside shooter, and he's a former All-Defensive team selection.

In time (maybe 1 or 2 years from now) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Rozier or Hunter pass Bradley, but not yet.

Avery Bradley is our best 3pt shooter? I think I just vomited in my mouth a little bit.

Percentage-wise, Jerebko and Johnson shot better from three last season.  Thomas shot worse with the Celtics, but had a higher 3P% overall when you include his time in Phoenix.

While this is true from a pure percentage argument, you need to also look at the number of shots taken.

* Johnson shot 41.3% on 0.8 3PA Per 36 Minutes (0.9 PP36 from Threes)
* Jerebko shot 38.6% on 4.1 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Bradley shot 35.2% on 5.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Thomas shot 37.3% on 7.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (8.1 PP36 from Threes)
* Olynyk shot 34.9% on 4.4 3PA Per 36 Minutes (4.5 PP36 from Threes)
* Smart shot 33.5% on 5.4 3PA Per 36 Minutes (5.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Sully shot 28.3% on 4.2 3PA Per 36 Minutes (3.6 PP36 from Threes)
* Crowder shot 28.2% on 3.0 3PA Per 36 Minutes (2.4 PP36 from Threes)
* Turner shot 27.7% on 1.5 3PA Per 36 Minutes (1.5 PP36 from Threes)

I think you need to look at a combination of:
* How many points the player contributed off three point shots
* The percentage the player shot on three point shots

These factors combined should give some indication of how much of a threat the player was from three.   

Looking at the list above, I'd probably rank our three point shooters (from best to worst) something like:

1) Isaiah Thomas - Clear leader
2) Jonas Jerebko - same amount of points off threes as Bradley, but shot a higher %)
3) Avery Bradley
4) Kelly Olynyk  - I take Olynyk over Smart due to consistency (two year pro, bigger sample size)
5) Marcus Smart
6) Jared Sullinger
7) Jae Crowder
8 ) Johnson (nice percentage, but lack of attempts makes sample size very small)
9) Turner

I feel there are very clear 'Tiers' here in terms of three point threat.

Tier 1 - Major Threat: Isaiah Thomas
Tier 2 - High Threat: Jerebko, Bradley 
Tier 3 - Significant Threat: Smart, Olynyk (Defense )
Tier 4 - Some Threat: Sullinger, Crowder, Johnson
Tier 5 - Minimal/No Threat: Turner, Lee, Zeller

So yeah, fair argument that Jerebko is a better three point shooter than Bradley, but Bradley wouldn't be far behind.   Honestly, I'd say they are probably about on par.

Worth noting also that Thomas and Bradley were the only guys on the roster who ranked top 4 on the team in both Three-Point Attempts (Per 36) and Three-Point Percentage. 

Also worth nothing that Bradley has only had 4 seasons in the league where he's actually played significant minutes (counting out his rookie year) and he shot around the 40% mark in two of those 4 seasons.

The two years where where he shot significantly below 40% were:
* 2012-13 (31.7%): First year back from double shoulder surgery, took time to get shot back
* 2014-15 (35.2%): Huge increase (+33%) in 3PA compared to his previous career high

Bradley's a better shooter than he's given credit for.  He's shot 36% for his career despite averaging a not-insubstantial 3.7 Attempts Per 36 Minutes. He just seems to get more unjustified hate on this forum than any other Celtics player.

I would have to agree. While  Jerebko is a great shooter, when it comes down to  the per 36 thing,  Jerebkos shots are calculated from such a small sample size of time. Bradleys starts and these teams defensive schemes are more based upon Bradley's presence than Jerebkos. Not sure his numbers would stay the same in the spotlight


Edit: Wrote disagree by mistake

[Celtics4ever]

Jerebko's greatest strength is that he can come into a game cold and play at a good level, understand the flow of the game,  and shoot relatively well.  Not all guys can do that.

[rollie mass]

wnen i played basketball you forced your way into a lineup or when players were injured or graduated,you didn't get gifted minutes outside of garbage time-isn't this hindering rookies growth vs playing for red claws and practicing in waltham and maybe sitting on bench at home games the stigma of playing  and developing  as rookies should change with fans and themslves-i would get a major coach for red claws and first class assistants so rookies would see and feel the results-if we have to find a diamond in rough this will be where they should polish it-

[Celtics4ever]

wnen i played basketball you forced your way into a lineup or when players were injured or graduated,you didn't get gifted minutes outside of garbage time-isn't this hindering rookies growth vs playing for red claws and practicing in waltham and maybe sitting on bench at home games the stigma of playing 

I forced my way into the lineup by being better than them, it works very well.  It will take time as teams have a pecking order established by their play and the coach.   But a hard working player can over come this one provided they prove themselves worthy.   I think CBS will start whom ever he thinks gives us the best chance to win with one exception; sometimes in the pros, a more talented guy won't start to boost the second unit.  IT is a prime example.  Numbers are very important to his analytical style.  His end of the game units are often whomever is performing well for that game.

I was a gym rat though and I think we just drafted a few gym rats.  Hunter is definitely one, Mickey seems have put some time on his shot which is something that not all guys with physical gifts do.  Rozier seems to be a gym rat too.   He has a knack for bank shots with is not something that always comes natural.   

[Chris22]

I don't care if he starts, just so long as he hits a last second shot, so I can see his Dad fall down again.

[Clench123]

This is just me, but I don't think it would be bad to start him like every 4th or 5th game. Kinda like in baseball.

Avery doesn't have the best injury history in the world and getting a relative rest, especially during the back to back type things, might be a good idea for everyone.

That's a very good idea.

[crimson_stallion]

I think he can play a point forward kind of role with his passing.  He has great court vision, basketball IQ not sure about his handle though.

4) Kelly Olynyk  - I take Olynyk over Smart due to consistency (two year pro, bigger sample size)

  Glad your not our GM with this assessement

This was a reference purely to three point shooting ability, just in case I didn't make that clear by my phrasing.

Olynyk has attempted 289 three point shots over his career so far and hit those at a 34.9% clip.

Smart has attempted 272 three point shots over his career so far, and has hit those at a 33.5% clips.

As I said the decision isn't clear cut, but Olynyk has been eerily consistent as a three point shooter over his first two seasons, and he shot a better percentage than Smart in both of them.  Smart on the other hand has been much more streaky, and much more 'hot and cold' with his outside shot.

If I were coach BS and had to choose one of those two guys to take the final game winning three, I'd have to pick Olynyk. 

We'll see this year how much Smart has developed, and by the end of the year my decision may well be very different.




 

[MetroGlobe]

While RJ’s defense in college has been considered rather uninspiring, a lot of his shortcomings can be attributed to the fact that Georgia State played a zone defense most of the year;

Wow, we are pouring Kool-aid down our throats.   I think the reason he is a little off, is he is slow.   Now he has good length and great basketball IQ, so he will adjust and be able to play off his man to compensate some.   But if a guy is hot, I think he will have trouble because of his foot speed.  You can say it is zone, but the truth of the matter is he lacks footspeed and lateral quickness.   Does not mean he is horrible, he tries and is smart and great at anticipating zones but it is what it is.

That's not true though.  He tested very well in the agility exercises at the combine.  He may not have Rozier's sprinting speed, but he is equipped well enough to keep most matchups in front of him.

[crimson_stallion]

This is just me, but I don't think it would be bad to start him like every 4th or 5th game. Kinda like in baseball.

Avery doesn't have the best injury history in the world and getting a relative rest, especially during the back to back type things, might be a good idea for everyone.

That's a very good idea.

Bradley is 24 years old and has played in 75% of possible games over the past four seasons.  He's played in almost 85% of possible games over the past two seasons.  He's not that fragile.

He's also averaged about 16.5 /4 / 2 Per 36 over his past two seasons, while shooting 43% / 37% / 80% and playing defence at a very high level.

I think R.J. Hunter needs to do a lot of proving before he can even dream of starting of an NBA player of Bradley's calibre.

[crimson_stallion]

While RJ’s defense in college has been considered rather uninspiring, a lot of his shortcomings can be attributed to the fact that Georgia State played a zone defense most of the year;

Wow, we are pouring Kool-aid down our throats.   I think the reason he is a little off, is he is slow.   Now he has good length and great basketball IQ, so he will adjust and be able to play off his man to compensate some.   But if a guy is hot, I think he will have trouble because of his foot speed.  You can say it is zone, but the truth of the matter is he lacks footspeed and lateral quickness.   Does not mean he is horrible, he tries and is smart and great at anticipating zones but it is what it is.

That's not true though.  He tested very well in the agility exercises at the combine.  He may not have Rozier's sprinting speed, but he is equipped well enough to keep most matchups in front of him.

I agree with this - Hunter isn't super fast on the fast break, but it's pretty well documented that he has quite good lateral quickness.  I don't think he'll have any problems keeping in front of NBA players - more concerned with him not being pushed around by them.

I know people say Bradley is skinny as well, but Bradley is 3-4 inches shorter than hunter and only 5 pounds lighter. 

At the draft combine Bradley was 180 pounds @ 4% body fat - he's not nearly as weak as he looks, he's just extremely lean.

Hunter needs to put on at least 20 pounds of muscle just to get to Bradley's level of strength.

[Sketch5]

I think he can play a point forward kind of role with his passing.  He has great court vision, basketball IQ not sure about his handle though.

4) Kelly Olynyk  - I take Olynyk over Smart due to consistency (two year pro, bigger sample size)

  Glad your not our GM with this assessement

This was a reference purely to three point shooting ability, just in case I didn't make that clear by my phrasing.

Olynyk has attempted 289 three point shots over his career so far and hit those at a 34.9% clip.

Smart has attempted 272 three point shots over his career so far, and has hit those at a 33.5% clips.

As I said the decision isn't clear cut, but Olynyk has been eerily consistent as a three point shooter over his first two seasons, and he shot a better percentage than Smart in both of them.  Smart on the other hand has been much more streaky, and much more 'hot and cold' with his outside shot.

If I were coach BS and had to choose one of those two guys to take the final game winning three, I'd have to pick Olynyk. 

We'll see this year how much Smart has developed, and by the end of the year my decision may well be very different.

There is also the difference of being a good shooter and a clutch shooter. Smart has nailed some clutch shots at the end of games in his short career. And he's not afraid of taking them too.

KO in the other hand is more likely to pass on the big shot because thats his make up. I'd run with Smart over KO right now just from summer league. KO didn't jump from one summer league to the next, yet Smart out side of one game looked like he took a big jump in just a couple months of working out. KO is going to have to really show something this year. He doesn't have to be elite, but his ceiling is getting closer and he really should be showing he's going to hit it this year. 

[Celtics4ever]

This was a reference purely to three point shooting ability, just in case I didn't make that clear by my phrasing.

My bad then, sorry.

The guy I do not wanting to take clutch shots is Sully.  He loves taking him, but often has shot us out of games.  I think RJ Hunter and Rozier have some true clutch shooting potential but they are rookies.  Stevens last year used Bradley a lot in these situations on drawn up plays.   A lot of Sully's usage came from trying to play hero ball.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/usage/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=USG_PCT&dir=1

CLUTCH STATS
Surprisingly the best player we have coming back in terms of shooting percentage for field goals is Jerebko in the clutch.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/usage/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PCT_FGM&dir=1

Marcus was best and IT was second and AB was third at long range bombing in the clutch.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/usage/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PCT_FG3M&dir=1

IT was the best at getting to the line

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/usage/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PCT_FTA&dir=1


And ET was our best clutch passer.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/clutch/usage/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738&sort=PCT_AST&dir=1

[Chief Macho]

this board is officially bored.