The Case for Starting RJ Hunter

[crimson_stallion]

Yeah, I can understand the clutch argument when it comes to that 'last shot'. 

Still though, you're talking about guys (Smart and Olynyk) who have been in the league for three seasons combined.  There's not a huge sample size of clutch data there - not like they have established long careers on it.

Smart definitely hit some huge clutch shots, but I remember Bradley and Olynyk both hitting some big shots too.  Hell even Jeff Green was HUGE in the clutch for us.

At the end of the day given the last of sample size, I'd probably still have the ball in Olynyk's hand rather than Smart. 

Main reasons being:
a) Smart's tendency to force for questionable shots
b) Smart's inability to consistently score at the basket (if driven off the three point shot)
c) Smart probably more likely to make a bad decision / bad pass under pressure

Olynyk is just such a smooth, smarter, more consistent and more composed player from what I've seen so far, and I feel like he's more likely to make the right play (less likely to make a rookie-type mistake). 

It's a tough call though, and I wouldn't make that decision easily.  If the ball didn't find Olynyk, I'd be pretty much just as happy to see Smart as the third choice (first choice being Thomas). 

I can understand why others might say Smart, and it's a fair call.

[twistedrico]

This kid could definitely be a good rotation player and eventually a starter. Very high IQ, great shooter and passer.

[Celtics4ever]

You will learn that there are phases of activity around certain events like the draft, good games or trades and periods of lull when nothing is happening here.

[LarBrd33]

I have very little expectations of RJ Hunter or any of our rookies this year.  I expect most of them to spend the bulk of their time in D-League.   

Once again, I feel that folks overreacted to Summer league.  It's a tradition.

For context, if you're looking at these guys just based on pure stat averages (NBA EFF stat - points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... subtract missed shots and turnovers), here's how they ranked amongst all summer league players:   

19th - Jordan Mickey (16.63) *
54th - Marcus Smart (14.2)   
97th - Terry Rozier (11.25)   
136th - RJ Hunter (9.38)   
228th - James Young (6.0)

* MIckey was genuinely impressive (statistically), but he's like 6'8 220 pounds and I'm not sure where he gets minutes as long as David Lee, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko are here. 

I don't blame anyone for getting excited when they see a guy like Hunter average 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting ... but how about a little perspective?

Don't underestimate the massive talent gulf between Summer league (where the majority of the players are undrafted scrubs who will never play a minute of NBA basketball) and the real NBA (the greatest players in the world)... Sure, Hunter looked ok... but so did 130+ players who outperformed him statistically... such as Jordan Sibert, an undrafted player with no NBA team. 

I'm not suggesting that Hunter has no future, I'm just saying you should temper your expectations.  Remember that Hunter averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1 block last season in College. He was taken #28 in the draft this year. It shouldn't be surprising that he's holding his own against undrafted d-league players who will never play a minute of real NBA basketball.  It stands to reason that he'd be better than those guys... otherwise he wouldn't have been drafted ahead of them, right?   But that doesn't mean he'll be able to hold his own in the real league.   

Take his best performance, for instance... dropping 22 points on the Spurs.  Look at that game in context.  The Spurs started exactly two drafted players. Kyle Anderson (#30 last year) and Cady Lalanne (taken 55th this year). It's fair to expect James Young (taken 17th last year), Terry Rozier (taken 16th this year), RJ Hunter (taken #28 this year) and Jordan Mickey (taken #32 this year) to be better than them... seeing as they were better than them in College (hence why they were drafted ahead of them). And yet Boston still lost.  While I admit that watching Hunter drop 22 points off the bench on 7-14 shooting is exciting, I have to acknowledge that in that very same game undrafted d-leaguer Jonathan Simmons might have been even more impressive for the Spurs (19 points on 7-11 shooting). I don't expect Jonathan Simmons to get minutes this year either. 

The fact is, Mediocre performances in Summer league isn't reason for grand optimism.  As someone pointed out to me... you should be concerned if a drafted rookie plays poorly in Summer league, but you shouldn't read into it if a rookie plays well.   Obviously someone HAS to get stats out there... Last year Mike Moser was our 3rd best player (13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game in 26mpg)... A couple years ago Dionte Christmas outplayed Jared Sullinger on our team by averaging 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals. Back in 2010, Luke Haroangody was our summerleague superstar... 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.6 assists. But getting stats doesn't mean the guy can play against the best players in the world.

Speaking of Christmas, that brings up a fun question....  Who was more impressive... RJ Hunter this year (12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting)... or Dionte Christmas two seasons ago (13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals 47%/35%/70%)?   I'm going with Christmas (15.10 EFF stat... 31st in Summer league that season).   Like Hunter, Christmas was a beast in College as well (19.5 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 43%/36%/78%). Hows his NBA career going? 31 games - 6.4mpg - 2.3 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.1 steals 36%/29%/75% ... Do you get my point?

Again, it shouldn't be a shock that the best college players play the best against weak Summer league competition.   Hunter isn't a bad basketball player.  I'd go out on a limb and say he's one of the 30 best rookies this year (hence why he was taken #28).  But what does that mean?   Brian Scalabrine was taken in roughly the same range as RJ Hunter (#34 overall in the 2001 draft). Scalabrine was also a 3 year college player. Scalabrine's College stats were solid: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 53%/40%/72% (compared to Hunter's 40%/30%/87%) ... Scal averaged 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2.4 assists on 50%/50%/63% shooting in 5 summer-league games... compared to Hunter's 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 31%/36%/90% ...

Scal played in like 20 NBA games as a rookie and only played garbage time. We know what kind of career he had. Hunter might some day reach Scal's peak, but this year I anticipate seeing him spend most of his time with the Red Claws.  This team is filled with mediocre talent as-is, but we're pretty loaded on guards and forwards.   I'd be a bit surprised to see Hunter crack this rotation unless we clean house a bit.   I think it's naive to expect otherwise.   Long-term, I hope he can be a factor.  Short-term... come on... it's summer league.

[LarBrd33]

This article points out some of the same stuff:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/20/may-not-look-like-but-celtics-construction-plan-schedule/V7AI890AxG3A2cXh7zLHsJ/story.html

Yes, Smart resembled a mini-Magic Johnson, averaging a league-high 24 points and 7.5 assists in the Utah Summer League. But he shot only 26.5 percent in three games in the Las Vegas Summer League.

It?s more telling if Smart doesn?t dominate Summer League, which in terms of level of play is somewhere between NBA garbage time on loop and an NBA Developmental League All-Star game.

You?re not going to learn whether Smart is a franchise point guard, whether first-round pick Terry Rozier was a reach or Rondo 2.0, whether fellow 2015 first-rounder R.J. Hunter can get his shots at the NBA level or whether Mickey is a steal in Summer League action.

Sorry.

There is a yawning reality gap between the Vegas Summer League, where Seth Curry, he of four NBA games and one career field goal, averages 24.3 points per game, and the NBA, where his older brother, Steph Curry, is the MVP.

[krumeto]

Enjoy a nice video on his doings in the summer league:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAtueJsoY6g

This kid is my favorite of our rookies. Watch him move without the ball in the video above to make himself available for the pass! The offense was as advertised, although the court vision surprised me.  His D however was way better than expected.

As to starting him, I hope for the start we play him. He seems a very good match with Smart for spot minutes. He will open up the floor nicely for Marcus and can serve as a secondary ball handler. Just thinking of rotations this year is hard. Brad will play a billion different lineups out there.

[PhoSita]

This article points out some of the same stuff:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/20/may-not-look-like-but-celtics-construction-plan-schedule/V7AI890AxG3A2cXh7zLHsJ/story.html

Yes, Smart resembled a mini-Magic Johnson, averaging a league-high 24 points and 7.5 assists in the Utah Summer League. But he shot only 26.5 percent in three games in the Las Vegas Summer League.

It?s more telling if Smart doesn?t dominate Summer League, which in terms of level of play is somewhere between NBA garbage time on loop and an NBA Developmental League All-Star game.

You?re not going to learn whether Smart is a franchise point guard, whether first-round pick Terry Rozier was a reach or Rondo 2.0, whether fellow 2015 first-rounder R.J. Hunter can get his shots at the NBA level or whether Mickey is a steal in Summer League action.

Sorry.

There is a yawning reality gap between the Vegas Summer League, where Seth Curry, he of four NBA games and one career field goal, averages 24.3 points per game, and the NBA, where his older brother, Steph Curry, is the MVP.

Is this the article where Gasper guarantees they'll be contending by 2024?  I thought that was amusing.

But yeah, I'd encourage anyone who doesn't understand the reservations others have about summer league to go check out the NBA.com webpage for the 2007 summer league.  It's still up and it's amazing.

[knuckleballer]

This article points out some of the same stuff:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/20/may-not-look-like-but-celtics-construction-plan-schedule/V7AI890AxG3A2cXh7zLHsJ/story.html

Yes, Smart resembled a mini-Magic Johnson, averaging a league-high 24 points and 7.5 assists in the Utah Summer League. But he shot only 26.5 percent in three games in the Las Vegas Summer League.

It?s more telling if Smart doesn?t dominate Summer League, which in terms of level of play is somewhere between NBA garbage time on loop and an NBA Developmental League All-Star game.

You?re not going to learn whether Smart is a franchise point guard, whether first-round pick Terry Rozier was a reach or Rondo 2.0, whether fellow 2015 first-rounder R.J. Hunter can get his shots at the NBA level or whether Mickey is a steal in Summer League action.

Sorry.

There is a yawning reality gap between the Vegas Summer League, where Seth Curry, he of four NBA games and one career field goal, averages 24.3 points per game, and the NBA, where his older brother, Steph Curry, is the MVP.

Before the summer league, you said you didn't expect Smart to dominate and after he dominated, you moved the goal post.

Regarding Hunter, I didn't pay much attention to his stats.  It was his awareness and vision on the court that impressed me.  Mentally, he was a step ahead of the other players and that's what I'm excited about.  I don't expect him to start next season, but I'm certainly optimistic right now.  I will be a lot more optimistic if he can add ten pounds of muscle over the next year.

[Smitty77]

I have very little expectations of RJ Hunter or any of our rookies this year.  I expect most of them to spend the bulk of their time in D-League.   

Once again, I feel that folks overreacted to Summer league.  It's a tradition.

For context, if you're looking at these guys just based on pure stat averages (NBA EFF stat - points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... subtract missed shots and turnovers), here's how they ranked amongst all summer league players:   

19th - Jordan Mickey (16.63) *
54th - Marcus Smart (14.2)   
97th - Terry Rozier (11.25)   
136th - RJ Hunter (9.38)   
228th - James Young (6.0)

* MIckey was genuinely impressive (statistically), but he's like 6'8 220 pounds and I'm not sure where he gets minutes as long as David Lee, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko are here. 

I don't blame anyone for getting excited when they see a guy like Hunter average 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting ... but how about a little perspective?

Don't underestimate the massive talent gulf between Summer league (where the majority of the players are undrafted scrubs who will never play a minute of NBA basketball) and the real NBA (the greatest players in the world)... Sure, Hunter looked ok... but so did 130+ players who outperformed him statistically... such as Jordan Sibert, an undrafted player with no NBA team. 

I'm not suggesting that Hunter has no future, I'm just saying you should temper your expectations.  Remember that Hunter averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1 block last season in College. He was taken #28 in the draft this year. It shouldn't be surprising that he's holding his own against undrafted d-league players who will never play a minute of real NBA basketball.  It stands to reason that he'd be better than those guys... otherwise he wouldn't have been drafted ahead of them, right?   But that doesn't mean he'll be able to hold his own in the real league.   

Take his best performance, for instance... dropping 22 points on the Spurs.  Look at that game in context.  The Spurs started exactly two drafted players. Kyle Anderson (#30 last year) and Cady Lalanne (taken 55th this year). It's fair to expect James Young (taken 17th last year), Terry Rozier (taken 16th this year), RJ Hunter (taken #28 this year) and Jordan Mickey (taken #32 this year) to be better than them... seeing as they were better than them in College (hence why they were drafted ahead of them). And yet Boston still lost.  While I admit that watching Hunter drop 22 points off the bench on 7-14 shooting is exciting, I have to acknowledge that in that very same game undrafted d-leaguer Jonathan Simmons might have been even more impressive for the Spurs (19 points on 7-11 shooting). I don't expect Jonathan Simmons to get minutes this year either. 

The fact is, Mediocre performances in Summer league isn't reason for grand optimism.  As someone pointed out to me... you should be concerned if a drafted rookie plays poorly in Summer league, but you shouldn't read into it if a rookie plays well.   Obviously someone HAS to get stats out there... Last year Mike Moser was our 3rd best player (13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game in 26mpg)... A couple years ago Dionte Christmas outplayed Jared Sullinger on our team by averaging 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals. Back in 2010, Luke Haroangody was our summerleague superstar... 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.6 assists. But getting stats doesn't mean the guy can play against the best players in the world.

Speaking of Christmas, that brings up a fun question....  Who was more impressive... RJ Hunter this year (12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting)... or Dionte Christmas two seasons ago (13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals 47%/35%/70%)?   I'm going with Christmas (15.10 EFF stat... 31st in Summer league that season).   Like Hunter, Christmas was a beast in College as well (19.5 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 43%/36%/78%). Hows his NBA career going? 31 games - 6.4mpg - 2.3 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.1 steals 36%/29%/75% ... Do you get my point?

Again, it shouldn't be a shock that the best college players play the best against weak Summer league competition.   Hunter isn't a bad basketball player.  I'd go out on a limb and say he's one of the 30 best rookies this year (hence why he was taken #28).  But what does that mean?   Brian Scalabrine was taken in roughly the same range as RJ Hunter (#34 overall in the 2001 draft). Scalabrine was also a 3 year college player. Scalabrine's College stats were solid: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 53%/40%/72% (compared to Hunter's 40%/30%/87%) ... Scal averaged 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2.4 assists on 50%/50%/63% shooting in 5 summer-league games... compared to Hunter's 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 31%/36%/90% ...

Scal played in like 20 NBA games as a rookie and only played garbage time. We know what kind of career he had. Hunter might some day reach Scal's peak, but this year I anticipate seeing him spend most of his time with the Red Claws.  This team is filled with mediocre talent as-is, but we're pretty loaded on guards and forwards.   I'd be a bit surprised to see Hunter crack this rotation unless we clean house a bit.   I think it's naive to expect otherwise.   Long-term, I hope he can be a factor.  Short-term... come on... it's summer league.

Christmas was 26 two years ago and RJ is 21.  Quite a difference I would say!!!

Smitty77

[hwangjini_1]

I have very little expectations of RJ Hunter or any of our rookies this year.  I expect most of them to spend the bulk of their time in D-League.   

Once again, I feel that folks overreacted to Summer league.  It's a tradition.

For context, if you're looking at these guys just based on pure stat averages (NBA EFF stat - points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... subtract missed shots and turnovers), here's how they ranked amongst all summer league players:   

19th - Jordan Mickey (16.63) *
54th - Marcus Smart (14.2)   
97th - Terry Rozier (11.25)   
136th - RJ Hunter (9.38)   
228th - James Young (6.0)

* MIckey was genuinely impressive (statistically), but he's like 6'8 220 pounds and I'm not sure where he gets minutes as long as David Lee, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Tyler Zeller and Jonas Jerebko are here. 

I don't blame anyone for getting excited when they see a guy like Hunter average 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting ... but how about a little perspective?

Don't underestimate the massive talent gulf between Summer league (where the majority of the players are undrafted scrubs who will never play a minute of NBA basketball) and the real NBA (the greatest players in the world)... Sure, Hunter looked ok... but so did 130+ players who outperformed him statistically... such as Jordan Sibert, an undrafted player with no NBA team. 

I'm not suggesting that Hunter has no future, I'm just saying you should temper your expectations.  Remember that Hunter averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals and 1 block last season in College. He was taken #28 in the draft this year. It shouldn't be surprising that he's holding his own against undrafted d-league players who will never play a minute of real NBA basketball.  It stands to reason that he'd be better than those guys... otherwise he wouldn't have been drafted ahead of them, right?   But that doesn't mean he'll be able to hold his own in the real league.   

Take his best performance, for instance... dropping 22 points on the Spurs.  Look at that game in context.  The Spurs started exactly two drafted players. Kyle Anderson (#30 last year) and Cady Lalanne (taken 55th this year). It's fair to expect James Young (taken 17th last year), Terry Rozier (taken 16th this year), RJ Hunter (taken #28 this year) and Jordan Mickey (taken #32 this year) to be better than them... seeing as they were better than them in College (hence why they were drafted ahead of them). And yet Boston still lost.  While I admit that watching Hunter drop 22 points off the bench on 7-14 shooting is exciting, I have to acknowledge that in that very same game undrafted d-leaguer Jonathan Simmons might have been even more impressive for the Spurs (19 points on 7-11 shooting). I don't expect Jonathan Simmons to get minutes this year either. 

The fact is, Mediocre performances in Summer league isn't reason for grand optimism.  As someone pointed out to me... you should be concerned if a drafted rookie plays poorly in Summer league, but you shouldn't read into it if a rookie plays well.   Obviously someone HAS to get stats out there... Last year Mike Moser was our 3rd best player (13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block per game in 26mpg)... A couple years ago Dionte Christmas outplayed Jared Sullinger on our team by averaging 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals. Back in 2010, Luke Haroangody was our summerleague superstar... 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.6 assists. But getting stats doesn't mean the guy can play against the best players in the world.

Speaking of Christmas, that brings up a fun question....  Who was more impressive... RJ Hunter this year (12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals with .316/.356/.906 shooting)... or Dionte Christmas two seasons ago (13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals 47%/35%/70%)?   I'm going with Christmas (15.10 EFF stat... 31st in Summer league that season).   Like Hunter, Christmas was a beast in College as well (19.5 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.5 steals, 43%/36%/78%). Hows his NBA career going? 31 games - 6.4mpg - 2.3 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.1 steals 36%/29%/75% ... Do you get my point?

Again, it shouldn't be a shock that the best college players play the best against weak Summer league competition.   Hunter isn't a bad basketball player.  I'd go out on a limb and say he's one of the 30 best rookies this year (hence why he was taken #28).  But what does that mean?   Brian Scalabrine was taken in roughly the same range as RJ Hunter (#34 overall in the 2001 draft). Scalabrine was also a 3 year college player. Scalabrine's College stats were solid: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 53%/40%/72% (compared to Hunter's 40%/30%/87%) ... Scal averaged 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2.4 assists on 50%/50%/63% shooting in 5 summer-league games... compared to Hunter's 12 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 31%/36%/90% ...

Scal played in like 20 NBA games as a rookie and only played garbage time. We know what kind of career he had. Hunter might some day reach Scal's peak, but this year I anticipate seeing him spend most of his time with the Red Claws.  This team is filled with mediocre talent as-is, but we're pretty loaded on guards and forwards.   I'd be a bit surprised to see Hunter crack this rotation unless we clean house a bit.   I think it's naive to expect otherwise.   Long-term, I hope he can be a factor.  Short-term... come on... it's summer league.

lb. this is one of your best posts to date. well argued, well supported, and well written. thanks....oh, and a tp of course. 

[pokeKingCurtis]

Christmas was 26 two years ago and RJ is 21.  Quite a difference I would say!!!

Smitty77

Not to mention he had a rough start that pulled down his averages.

Hasn't been efficient, but there are traits that could reasonably get people excited (his passing and IQ for his size, namely).

Nobody, or not everyone at least, is naming him a star. I think most people are projecting him to be a role player, which I would say isn't an unreasonable upper bound as far as career trajectories go.

[atlantaceltic]

You couldn't be more wrong. RJ will be a star. Funny because all over the next everyone is calling him "steal of the draft" type player but this board has been kind of down on him for some reason. He thrived in summer league despite playing with guys who both were not interested and didn't know how to get him the ball within the flow of the offense.  A player who can pull from half court get to the line at a high clip and defend/play the passing lanes like him with his IQ and awareness are rare.  Not to mention he can be counted on to draw the foul and hit three free throws to win the game with 0.001 seconds left or hit the half court winner he wants the ball at the end.

[LarBrd33]

This article points out some of the same stuff:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/20/may-not-look-like-but-celtics-construction-plan-schedule/V7AI890AxG3A2cXh7zLHsJ/story.html

Yes, Smart resembled a mini-Magic Johnson, averaging a league-high 24 points and 7.5 assists in the Utah Summer League. But he shot only 26.5 percent in three games in the Las Vegas Summer League.

It?s more telling if Smart doesn?t dominate Summer League, which in terms of level of play is somewhere between NBA garbage time on loop and an NBA Developmental League All-Star game.

You?re not going to learn whether Smart is a franchise point guard, whether first-round pick Terry Rozier was a reach or Rondo 2.0, whether fellow 2015 first-rounder R.J. Hunter can get his shots at the NBA level or whether Mickey is a steal in Summer League action.

Sorry.

There is a yawning reality gap between the Vegas Summer League, where Seth Curry, he of four NBA games and one career field goal, averages 24.3 points per game, and the NBA, where his older brother, Steph Curry, is the MVP.

Before the summer league, you said you didn't expect Smart to dominate and after he dominated, you moved the goal post.

... Smart didn't dominate.  His stats were about even with his stats in summer league a year ago.  He didn't finish in the top 50.  Part of that is the result of his final game where he went out with an injury.  Part of that is due to the game where he went 1-11 against semi-pro undrafted scrubs... but even after his first few games (where he played well despite shooting under 40%), his statistic improvement reflected the same mild improvement he made between the first and second half of the NBA season.   

[tarheelsxxiii]

This article points out some of the same stuff:  https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/20/may-not-look-like-but-celtics-construction-plan-schedule/V7AI890AxG3A2cXh7zLHsJ/story.html

Yes, Smart resembled a mini-Magic Johnson, averaging a league-high 24 points and 7.5 assists in the Utah Summer League. But he shot only 26.5 percent in three games in the Las Vegas Summer League.

It?s more telling if Smart doesn?t dominate Summer League, which in terms of level of play is somewhere between NBA garbage time on loop and an NBA Developmental League All-Star game.

You?re not going to learn whether Smart is a franchise point guard, whether first-round pick Terry Rozier was a reach or Rondo 2.0, whether fellow 2015 first-rounder R.J. Hunter can get his shots at the NBA level or whether Mickey is a steal in Summer League action.

Sorry.

There is a yawning reality gap between the Vegas Summer League, where Seth Curry, he of four NBA games and one career field goal, averages 24.3 points per game, and the NBA, where his older brother, Steph Curry, is the MVP.

Agree with all points above, solid post, but disagree with the slight to Rondo. I think he gave more than enough in the playoffs, esp 2012, to warrant being considered more than just a product of his environment (which I've acknowledge the significance of his environment elsewhere). He went absolutely bananas, man. If Rozier turns into Rondo 2.0, I'd be very happy and pleasantly surprised, but he seems like far more of a scorer than creator offensively.

[IDreamCeltics]

Don't underestimate the massive talent gulf between Summer league (where the majority of the players are undrafted scrubs who will never play a minute of NBA basketball) and the real NBA (the greatest players in the world)... Sure, Hunter looked ok... but so did 130+ players who outperformed him statistically... such as Jordan Sibert, an undrafted player with no NBA team. 

So this has been a common theme from some posters on this board and it shows a misconception that the NBA summer league is essentially drawing from the same talent pool it was drawing from ten or even twenty years ago.

The majority of summer league players are NOT undrafted scrubs anymore. The majority of summer league is made up of first and second year players drafted in the two rounds of the NBA draft, all the healthy lottery picks, prospects from the euro league, NBA vets looking to make a final contract, and the best d-league players.  The summer league is particularly thin at the center position while being relatively deep at guard.

I like a lot of your statistical analysis, but the context has changed dramatically.  It's pretty inappropriate to compare summer league stats of today against the summer league stats of 15 years ago.

Finally, I just wish you and others would actually WATCH some current summer league games before speaking as authorities on the issue. 

I really admire the time you're willing to put into your statistical comparisons and research and look forward to seeing more in the future.