Dr. J - Sixers on a 7 year plan

[Evantime34]

Just wanted to chime in on players leaving a bad team and not signing an extension. People are mentioning that it's rare for a player to take the QO and become a restricted free agent the next year.

There is a caveat to that. A lot of players who don't want to sign an extension let the team know and then they trade that player. Since a lot of the players who would have tried to walk are traded beforehand you don't see a lot of players just walking in their free agency year because it never comes to that.

[Moranis]

Just wanted to chime in on players leaving a bad team and not signing an extension. People are mentioning that it's rare for a player to take the QO and become a restricted free agent the next year.

There is a caveat to that. A lot of players who don't want to sign an extension let the team know and then they trade that player. Since a lot of the players who would have tried to walk are traded beforehand you don't see a lot of players just walking in their free agency year because it never comes to that.

Even sign and trade of restricted free agents isn't all that common

[BitterJim]

Just wanted to chime in on players leaving a bad team and not signing an extension. People are mentioning that it's rare for a player to take the QO and become a restricted free agent the next year.

There is a caveat to that. A lot of players who don't want to sign an extension let the team know and then they trade that player. Since a lot of the players who would have tried to walk are traded beforehand you don't see a lot of players just walking in their free agency year because it never comes to that.

Even sign and trade of restricted free agents isn't all that common

I think he means situations like Reggie Jackson, where they get traded before the contract expires, instead of sign and trades

[Evantime34]

Just wanted to chime in on players leaving a bad team and not signing an extension. People are mentioning that it's rare for a player to take the QO and become a restricted free agent the next year.

There is a caveat to that. A lot of players who don't want to sign an extension let the team know and then they trade that player. Since a lot of the players who would have tried to walk are traded beforehand you don't see a lot of players just walking in their free agency year because it never comes to that.

Even sign and trade of restricted free agents isn't all that common

edit- What BitterJim said.

[bdm860]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

True. But how many superstar players were on a team that wanted to be as bad as Philly wants to be?
I think the motivation to sign a short term contract with another team, so as to have some freedom if Philly matches, will certainly be there.
So, instead of taking the qualifying offer, you're signing an offer sheet for 2 years, with a 3rd year as a player option, with another team. And after those two years you're free to leave, or at least you have leverage to demand a trade.
If they don't start trying to win games, I think that's what'll happen with Noel.

Star rookies (Cousins, Irving, etc) are often on bad teams but they still sign their extension offers.  Money talks.  Players don't turn down 5yr/100+mil extension offers.  If Noel does make it to free agency, the Sixers have the option of making a max qualifying offer (like the Bulls did with Butler) which forces any offers to be at least 3 years without options.  Rookies just don't have much leverage.

But that's assuming star rookies getting offered the max.  There's many examples of players on their rookie deals asking for trades or leaving in free agency looking for more money or more playing time/bigger role.

Ben Gordon, Josh Childress, Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Reggie Jackson, Enes Kanter.

We just saw Jimmy Butler turn down an extension last year hoping for more money (and it worked).

First step is to see if Nerlens Noel gets a max deal (guys like Al Horford and Joakim Noah didn't).  Then does Embiid get a max offer after playing only 2 full seasons at the most?  By year 2, is he really going to show he's worthy of a max after not playing for 2 years?  Look at Greg Oden in Portland, or even Eddy Curry in Chicago.  When you have major health issues, you don't automatically get a max offer, or a great offer, from your current team (unless maybe you're Gilbert Arenas).

The Philly situation will be very interesting over the next few years.

[BitterJim]

I wonder how the increasing cap/change in CBA will effect restricted free agency in the next couple of years.  Just like some players are signing shorter deals, will RFAs be willing to sign shorter deals/the QO to take advantage of more money becoming available (provided that they're unhappy with their team)

[celticsclay]

The problem with the whole philosophy is that it assumes player development to be exogenous, ie in a vacuum, completely unrelated to organizational culture and stability.

A point already made: rookies can bolt in free agency after their rookie deals expire. What exactly is the incentive to stay with a perennially losing organization when your rookie deal is up? You'd make more money on a max contract by staying, but if you're good enough to get the max, that extra money probably isn't enough by itself to keep you around.

Rookies can't just bolt in free agency.  They are restricted free agents so their existing team is able to match any offers.  The only way around that is if the rookie chooses to take that the minimum qualifying offer in their 5th year which rarely happens.  The best rookies, like Davis, get Max extension deals and don't even make it to free agency.

Right.  How many examples do we have of superstar players bolting after their rookie deal is over by taking the qualifying offer when they hit RFA and then becoming a UFA the next year?

Greg Monroe did it, but he's no superstar, and it's debatable whether the Pistons really wanted to extend themselves very far in order to keep him anyway.

True. But how many superstar players were on a team that wanted to be as bad as Philly wants to be?
I think the motivation to sign a short term contract with another team, so as to have some freedom if Philly matches, will certainly be there.
So, instead of taking the qualifying offer, you're signing an offer sheet for 2 years, with a 3rd year as a player option, with another team. And after those two years you're free to leave, or at least you have leverage to demand a trade.
If they don't start trying to win games, I think that's what'll happen with Noel.

Star rookies (Cousins, Irving, etc) are often on bad teams but they still sign their extension offers.  Money talks.  Players don't turn down 5yr/100+mil extension offers.  If Noel does make it to free agency, the Sixers have the option of making a max qualifying offer (like the Bulls did with Butler) which forces any offers to be at least 3 years without options.  Rookies just don't have much leverage.

But that's assuming star rookies getting offered the max.  There's many examples of players on their rookie deals asking for trades or leaving in free agency looking for more money or more playing time/bigger role.

Ben Gordon, Josh Childress, Tyreke Evans, James Harden, Reggie Jackson, Enes Kanter.

We just saw Jimmy Butler turn down an extension last year hoping for more money (and it worked).

First step is to see if Nerlens Noel gets a max deal (guys like Al Horford and Joakim Noah didn't).  Then does Embiid get a max offer after playing only 2 full seasons at the most?  By year 2, is he really going to show he's worthy of a max after not playing for 2 years?  Look at Greg Oden in Portland, or even Eddy Curry in Chicago.  When you have major health issues, you don't automatically get a max offer, or a great offer, from your current team (unless maybe your Gilbert Arenas).

The Philly situation will be very interesting over the next few years.

It amazes me that people would put the words embiid and max contract together in a sentence right now. The latest reports were that there was fear his career could be over. There has to be some middle ground between seeing if he can play even 15 minutes a game versus discussing his max contract potential. At this point he is less likely to play in the NBA again than Greg Oden.

[celticsclay]

The Heat pick was brutal, 11 would have been money in this draft. So many things went wrong for that to happen. Still not sure it goes past 18, that team has high end talent but they are really thin.

I don't think the OKC pick will really lose that much value. I think next years draft will be a bit deeper.

The Lakers pick was hoping for a Festivus miracle at the lottery.

The Heat actually do have a lot better depth than what they finished the season with last year. They basically are adding Bosh, Winslow, McRoberts and Gerald Green to the guys they were playing at the end of the last year. You can debate Green if you want, but I think he is a good scorer off the bench, something they sorely lacked. McRoberts is no all star, but he was signed for the mid-level because he is more than a 10th man off the bench. They very easily could finish 3rd or 4th in the east with

Wade
Dragic
Deng
Bosh
Whiteside

Winslow
Green
McRoberts
Anderson
Napier

I think 18 would require some injuries and it could really be 24 or 25. Thats is a big blow from 11 (see the celtics trade offer to hornets))

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

The Heat pick was brutal, 11 would have been money in this draft. So many things went wrong for that to happen. Still not sure it goes past 18, that team has high end talent but they are really thin.

I don't think the OKC pick will really lose that much value. I think next years draft will be a bit deeper.

The Lakers pick was hoping for a Festivus miracle at the lottery.

The Heat actually do have a lot better depth than what they finished the season with last year. They basically are adding Bosh, Winslow, McRoberts and Gerald Green to the guys they were playing at the end of the last year. You can debate Green if you want, but I think he is a good scorer off the bench, something they sorely lacked. McRoberts is no all star, but he was signed for the mid-level because he is more than a 10th man off the bench. They very easily could finish 3rd or 4th in the east with

Wade
Dragic
Deng
Bosh
Whiteside

Winslow
Green
McRoberts
Anderson
Napier

I think 18 would require some injuries and it could really be 24 or 25. Thats is a big blow from 11 (see the celtics trade offer to hornets))

Deng, Wade, McRoberts(whose game I like a lot) and Bosh are all big injury risks right now.

Napier and Anderson are pretty bleh. Winslow will be good some day, but he's a rookie. Rookies rarely impact W/L that much.

Look they're better than last year, but they were a fringe playoff team last year and Bosh and Wade are at the age where they get worse rather than better.

They could be the 2 seed if everything breaks right, or terrible if everything breaks wrong. Definitely the highest variance team in the East When healthy they have the 2nd best starting 5 in the East. I just have no faith in their health or their depth... but that might be me seeing what I want to happen haha. 

[CelticGuardian]

Bah! I always said that Sixers management is looking a lot like their players... just a bunch of interns.

[celticsclay]

The Heat pick was brutal, 11 would have been money in this draft. So many things went wrong for that to happen. Still not sure it goes past 18, that team has high end talent but they are really thin.

I don't think the OKC pick will really lose that much value. I think next years draft will be a bit deeper.

The Lakers pick was hoping for a Festivus miracle at the lottery.

The Heat actually do have a lot better depth than what they finished the season with last year. They basically are adding Bosh, Winslow, McRoberts and Gerald Green to the guys they were playing at the end of the last year. You can debate Green if you want, but I think he is a good scorer off the bench, something they sorely lacked. McRoberts is no all star, but he was signed for the mid-level because he is more than a 10th man off the bench. They very easily could finish 3rd or 4th in the east with

Wade
Dragic
Deng
Bosh
Whiteside

Winslow
Green
McRoberts
Anderson
Napier

I think 18 would require some injuries and it could really be 24 or 25. Thats is a big blow from 11 (see the celtics trade offer to hornets))

Deng, Wade, McRoberts(whose game I like a lot) and Bosh are all big injury risks right now.

Napier and Anderson are pretty bleh. Winslow will be good some day, but he's a rookie. Rookies rarely impact W/L that much.

Look they're better than last year, but they were a fringe playoff team last year and Bosh and Wade are at the age where they get worse rather than better.

They could be the 2 seed if everything breaks right, or terrible if everything breaks wrong. Definitely the highest variance team in the East When healthy they have the 2nd best starting 5 in the East. I just have no faith in their health or their depth... but that might be me seeing what I want to happen haha.

Raanndy I have come to respect your philly posts because they are generally pretty balanced and as objective as one can really be about their own team. I think in this case though that is a little overly pessimistic. Specifically, Deng is 30 and played 72 games last year and as far as I know does not have any chronic knee or back issues that would seem to be risks going into next season. I am not sure why he would be considered an injury risk in particular. Before last season Bosh had also played in 74 and 77 and I think sat out a few games that season because the Heat had the best record locked up. He is also 31, and his blood clot seems like a freak illness rather than a sign of lingering injury risk.

I also don't get how you can ignore there pretty stealth signing. Amare Stoudamire is not a star and is an injury risk, but he is awesome as a 3rd or 4th guy off the bench at minimum money. Winslow may not be a star yet (or ever) but a lot of people thought he was a top 5 pick and able to at least play provide wing depth. Same thing with Gerald Green. When you are talking about chalmers, napier and Anderson you are now talking about them as really deep bench players, rather than the first guys off the bench last year. Injuries can strike any team but it is really hard to see how that team wont rack up a pretty decent amount of wins playing against the dregs of the east.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

I don't trust guys who've been run into the ground by Thibs in terms of long term health. Maybe that's just me, but I think his minutes strategy is total lunacy. I'd be wary or relying on a guy who is over 30 and has a ton of extra Thibs mileage. That's the Deng part of it.

Bosh is probably the least risky health wise, still you never know until he gets back. But I agree, it's not like he's coming off of structural damage type injury (tear/break/sprain/strain/concussion/etc).

Wade is the guy I could see easily missing half of the year even without a season ending injury. He's just beat up.

I guess we have different opinions of Napier, Chalmers and Andersen. To me those guys have a way better rep than they deserve because they were "role players on a title team." Well a few of them were anyways.

Chalmers and Napier aren't that good. At all. And Anderson is 37, how much are we really expecting from a 37 year old? Stoudemire might be better than expected or a non-factor. He's pretty beat up too.

Look, like I said this team has 2 seed potential. I see them winning 55-35 games. depending on health and performance. But I think in the offseason these issues tend to get glossed over because that starting 5 is awesome...

I expect they'll start something like 11-4 and get everybody raving, but in January when they've got 6 legit rotation players and they're leaning on them for way too many minutes the cracks in the foundation MAY(not will) begin to appear.

The one good thing about the best case scenario for them is that they're old and may rest some dudes and lose a few meaningless regular season games so the Sixers might hop up a spot or two haha.

[celticsclay]

I don't trust guys who've been run into the ground by Thibs in terms of long term health. Maybe that's just me, but I think his minutes strategy is total lunacy. I'd be wary or relying on a guy who is over 30 and has a ton of extra Thibs mileage. That's the Deng part of it.

Bosh is probably the least risky health wise, still you never know until he gets back. But I agree, it's not like he's coming off of structural damage type injury (tear/break/sprain/strain/concussion/etc).

Wade is the guy I could see easily missing half of the year even without a season ending injury. He's just beat up.

I guess we have different opinions of Napier, Chalmers and Andersen. To me those guys have a way better rep than they deserve because they were "role players on a title team." Well a few of them were anyways.

Chalmers and Napier aren't that good. At all. And Anderson is 37, how much are we really expecting from a 37 year old? Stoudemire might be better than expected or a non-factor. He's pretty beat up too.

Look, like I said this team has 2 seed potential. I see them winning 55-35 games. depending on health and performance. But I think in the offseason these issues tend to get glossed over because that starting 5 is awesome...

I expect they'll start something like 11-4 and get everybody raving, but in January when they've got 6 legit rotation players and they're leaning on them for way too many minutes the cracks in the foundation MAY(not will) begin to appear.

The one good thing about the best case scenario for them is that they're old and may rest some dudes and lose a few meaningless regular season games so the Sixers might hop up a spot or two haha.

Not to detail the thread too heavily, but the Heat are an interesting team to discuss.

So right now their bench presumably looks like

Gerald Green
Amare Stoudamire
Mario Chalmers
Justice Winslow
McRoberts
Chris Anderson

I realize some of their title team role players are not that great, and older, but if Chalmers was able to start for a team winning the championship, can't he at least be an average guard off the bench? Gerald Green and Amare were very under the radar signings. Stoudamire was the best player off the Mavs bench once he was freed from the Knicks and it seems like he is beating the injury risk by only playing back-up minutes. I look at their bench and feel like have added 4 decent rotation players to their team. Shallow is kind of the last thing i think of looking at their team after these signings.

[tazzmaniac]

The Heat pick was brutal, 11 would have been money in this draft. So many things went wrong for that to happen. Still not sure it goes past 18, that team has high end talent but they are really thin.

I don't think the OKC pick will really lose that much value. I think next years draft will be a bit deeper.

The Lakers pick was hoping for a Festivus miracle at the lottery.

The Heat actually do have a lot better depth than what they finished the season with last year. They basically are adding Bosh, Winslow, McRoberts and Gerald Green to the guys they were playing at the end of the last year. You can debate Green if you want, but I think he is a good scorer off the bench, something they sorely lacked. McRoberts is no all star, but he was signed for the mid-level because he is more than a 10th man off the bench. They very easily could finish 3rd or 4th in the east with

Wade
Dragic
Deng
Bosh
Whiteside

Winslow
Green
McRoberts
Anderson
Napier

I think 18 would require some injuries and it could really be 24 or 25. Thats is a big blow from 11 (see the celtics trade offer to hornets))

Deng, Wade, McRoberts(whose game I like a lot) and Bosh are all big injury risks right now.

Napier and Anderson are pretty bleh. Winslow will be good some day, but he's a rookie. Rookies rarely impact W/L that much.

Look they're better than last year, but they were a fringe playoff team last year and Bosh and Wade are at the age where they get worse rather than better.

They could be the 2 seed if everything breaks right, or terrible if everything breaks wrong. Definitely the highest variance team in the East When healthy they have the 2nd best starting 5 in the East. I just have no faith in their health or their depth... but that might be me seeing what I want to happen haha.

Raanndy I have come to respect your philly posts because they are generally pretty balanced and as objective as one can really be about their own team. I think in this case though that is a little overly pessimistic. Specifically, Deng is 30 and played 72 games last year and as far as I know does not have any chronic knee or back issues that would seem to be risks going into next season. I am not sure why he would be considered an injury risk in particular. Before last season Bosh had also played in 74 and 77 and I think sat out a few games that season because the Heat had the best record locked up. He is also 31, and his blood clot seems like a freak illness rather than a sign of lingering injury risk.

I also don't get how you can ignore there pretty stealth signing. Amare Stoudamire is not a star and is an injury risk, but he is awesome as a 3rd or 4th guy off the bench at minimum money. Winslow may not be a star yet (or ever) but a lot of people thought he was a top 5 pick and able to at least play provide wing depth. Same thing with Gerald Green. When you are talking about chalmers, napier and Anderson you are now talking about them as really deep bench players, rather than the first guys off the bench last year. Injuries can strike any team but it is really hard to see how that team wont rack up a pretty decent amount of wins playing against the dregs of the east.

Blood clots are serious and can reoccur.  Bosh is still on blood thinners but he is going to have to come off of them to play.  I add Whiteside to the list of potential issues for the Heat.  They had a few issues with him last year and now he is in a contract year. 

[celticsclay]

I really don't understand the perceptions of teams on this boards. If the celtics owned the Heat Draft pick I feel really confident that everyone would say it was going to be late 20's and the heat were the second best team in the east. However, cause we don't own it and Philly does the Heat somehow have all these issues despite adding a bunch of key veterans, resigning everyone and not losing a single player.

I mean the Nets had a horrible offseason losing their starting point guard and 3 other rotation players while adding next to nothing, but we still have people saying they will be decent.

Lets try to switch the pessimism for the celtics with the optimism people have for things working for the 76ers?