Zack Lowe article on rebuilding vs reloading

[celticsclay]

Zach Lowe wrote an article for grantland that compares the situation in Phoenix versus the situation in Philly. I thought this would be a really intersting read considering it seems like the Suns are employing a pretty similar strategy to the Celtics (where as we have all debated Philly to death)

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-tale-of-two-cities-phoenix-and-philly-plot-different-courses-to-contention/

[Moranis]

Read that earlier.  Thought it was interesting.

[JSD]

Read that earlier.  Thought it was interesting.

Tell me more about that.

[celticsclay]

Here is one interesting comment from the article

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

I have never found Lowe to be one to one to make things up, so I wonder which players have asked out of there over the last few seasons. We have debated whether players want to play their winning 20 ish games each year and appearing on sportscenter when they have long losing streaks. It appears from this comment that at least a player or two have wanted to get out.

[Evantime34]

Here is one interesting comment from the article

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

I have never found Lowe to be one to one to make things up, so I wonder which players have asked out of there over the last few seasons. We have debated whether players want to play their winning 20 ish games each year and appearing on sportscenter when they have long losing streaks. It appears from this comment that at least a player or two have wanted to get out.

This is true now, but I think if they look like their young players are getting to the point they start winning games then free agents will consider there.

That being said they need to start trying to get better soon. If they are bottom of the league for 7 years then it's going to be hard to bring free agents in there.

Since they didn't go after even back end rotation free agents this year, I expect another year of tanking. In 2016 with Saric coming over, Embiid potentially getting healthy and a lot more picks I think the 2016-2017 season will be when they start to turn it around. If I was a philly fan I would be p---ed that the team I enjoy watching has been difficult to watch for 5 years.

On the article as a whole, I thought it was very interesting what it said about finances. Philly can afford to do this because they come out of every year making money. While Phoenix needs to be good in order to turn a profit. It is much easier for owners to be patient with a team when the negative performance of the team doesn't make them hemorrhage money.

[PhoSita]

A quote I hope won't apply to us, but I fear will:

Suns owner Robert Sarver admits he’s an impatient sort, but he embraced a rebuild when he empowered GM Ryan McDonough to gut the wretched post–Steve Nash roster ahead of the 2013-14 season. That team nearly blitzed to the playoffs, and the Suns have been prisoners to that shocking success ever since. They’ve veered off the rebuild path, and reached in a half-dozen different directions for missing pieces in an attempt to quickly turn themselves into contenders.

[BudweiserCeltic]

A quote I hope won't apply to us, but I fear will:

Suns owner Robert Sarver admits he’s an impatient sort, but he embraced a rebuild when he empowered GM Ryan McDonough to gut the wretched post–Steve Nash roster ahead of the 2013-14 season. That team nearly blitzed to the playoffs, and the Suns have been prisoners to that shocking success ever since. They’ve veered off the rebuild path, and reached in a half-dozen different directions for missing pieces in an attempt to quickly turn themselves into contenders.

`

We haven't gone that route yet, and nothing we've done so far suggests that's what we're going for. But we'll see.

All I've seen from Ainge so far is the conversion of assets into other, potentially better, assets.

[PhoSita]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

[slamtheking]

I found this tidbit in the article interesting -- backs up my theory/speculation that their young players will get sick of the repetitive losing and look to move on.

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don?t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

took too long to copy and pasted -- beat me to it above

[PhoSita]

It will be very interesting to see if the Sixers struggle to retain their players through all of this calculated losing and constant trading, and how they manage to overcome that.

More than all of the losing, I think what players will probably react to is that Philly's out-and-out tank strategy tends to devalue all of the players on their roster.  Outside of Philly, nobody on that roster is looked at as a legitimate NBA player aside from the superstar prospects, and any numbers that those guys put up might as well be D-League stats.

I think you can get guys to buy into a long term rebuilding plan, but if you make them feel like any success they enjoy in the meantime will be completely ignored by the rest of the league, they start to worry about their careers.

[BudweiserCeltic]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

[emajic1]

"Then again, first-round picks might rise in value as salaries for veteran players leap with the cap bonanza. Rookie-scale salaries are set in stone at cheap levels, pending a potential lockout in 2017, and they will look like gold as veteran salaries skyrocket."

This may bode well for the value of our 2016 picks.  Yes, the draft will still be a seller's (of high picks) market, but the unknown effects of the cap bonanza/potential lockout, could possibly put a small premium on the certainty of the rookie-scale contract.  Can't hurt. 

[PhoSita]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

It was another quote I found interesting.  I don't think it really applies to the Celts, but it's closer than I like.

[BudweiserCeltic]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

It was another quote I found interesting.  I don't think it really applies to the Celts, but it's closer than I like.

OK, just wasn't sure if you were angling it to mean acquiring Amir at $12M or not.

That said, it may apply to the packages they were throwing around on draft night. It seemed too much value going out to me (the Hornets one in particular).

[PhoSita]

I think the signing of Amir and the trade for Lee, together with the owner's winking proclamations the last two summers about fireworks, suggest a certain level of impatience coming from that front.

Seems to me like Wyc doesn't want to have to wait through a typical rebuilding period and wants the team to become respectable sooner.  He tasted a quick turnaround and satisfying victory back in 07-08 and the glamor of being a top team that followed, and he wants to get back there again. (See: "The Curse of the Summer of 2007" thread)

Danny is trying to make the best of that scenario, but it's like trying to have your cake and eat it too.

Yes, you can justify the Amir and Jerebko signings and the acquisition of David Lee as being just another example of "adding assets," but I don't think those moves would have happened if there weren't at least a little pressure from ownership.