Zack Lowe article on rebuilding vs reloading

[Boris Badenov]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

It was another quote I found interesting.  I don't think it really applies to the Celts, but it's closer than I like.

I don't think it applies. Even the Amir and Lee acquisitions are one-year commitments, and we have a bunch of draft picks that will be completely independent of our record next year (setting aside our own).

Or, look at it this way. Danny hasn't made a single move so far that puts us in a worse position to trade for or sign a star. I'd argue he's put us in a better position. Suppose next year we want to put together a package of IT, Amir Johnson, Terry Rozier and a couple 1st rounders to swing a deadline deal. Isn't that better than any package we could've offered at the deadline this year?

I'd characterize Danny's moves so far as patient, actually.

[LooseCannon]

Here is one interesting comment from the article

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

I have never found Lowe to be one to one to make things up, so I wonder which players have asked out of there over the last few seasons. We have debated whether players want to play their winning 20 ish games each year and appearing on sportscenter when they have long losing streaks. It appears from this comment that at least a player or two have wanted to get out.

Some trade rumors are due to agents floating ideas to reporters, so if you wonder who wants out, I'd start looking at players who are often mentioned in rumors.  I'd assume that Hinkie isn't going to accept less value in return just because a player wants out.

[celticsclay]

Here is one interesting comment from the article

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

I have never found Lowe to be one to one to make things up, so I wonder which players have asked out of there over the last few seasons. We have debated whether players want to play their winning 20 ish games each year and appearing on sportscenter when they have long losing streaks. It appears from this comment that at least a player or two have wanted to get out.

Some trade rumors are due to agents floating ideas to reporters, so if you wonder who wants out, I'd start looking at players who are often mentioned in rumors.  I'd assume that Hinkie isn't going to accept less value in return just because a player wants out.

The thing that makes that tough is that the 76ers have not had any established NBA players that would have been good enough to even explore being traded. I think most their guys probably feel luck to be in the NBA. The way I see it, the only people that could have asked their agents to request a trade were MCW, Noel and Young while he was there.

[PhoSita]

Or, look at it this way. Danny hasn't made a single move so far that puts us in a worse position to trade for or sign a star. I'd argue he's put us in a better position. Suppose next year we want to put together a package of IT, Amir Johnson, Terry Rozier and a couple 1st rounders to swing a deadline deal. Isn't that better than any package we could've offered at the deadline this year?

I'd characterize Danny's moves so far as patient, actually.

I see what Danny is doing as trying to keep the Celtics decent and watchable while maintaining flexibility.  Very similar to what Lowe describes as the Suns' MO, though not quite as intent on identifying and investing in core pieces ASAP.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Here is one interesting comment from the article

"Philly needs to nail the draft, because big-time free agents don’t appear willing to consider the Sixers until they start winning a respectable number of games. Some agents have even called around to other teams, trying to ignite trade talks that would get their players out of Philadelphia, according to several league sources."

I have never found Lowe to be one to one to make things up, so I wonder which players have asked out of there over the last few seasons. We have debated whether players want to play their winning 20 ish games each year and appearing on sportscenter when they have long losing streaks. It appears from this comment that at least a player or two have wanted to get out.

Some trade rumors are due to agents floating ideas to reporters, so if you wonder who wants out, I'd start looking at players who are often mentioned in rumors.  I'd assume that Hinkie isn't going to accept less value in return just because a player wants out.

The thing that makes that tough is that the 76ers have not had any established NBA players that would have been good enough to even explore being traded. I think most their guys probably feel luck to be in the NBA. The way I see it, the only people that could have asked their agents to request a trade were MCW, Noel and Young while he was there.

Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner, Thad Young, etc.

I know all 3 of those guys pretty openly wanted out. Highly doubt young guys getting way more of an opportunity here than they would anywhere else are the source. Maybe KJ McDaniels.

[cb8883]

There's Buford Presti Hinkie Riley and everyone else. Hinkie and Presti took the right path for a mid market team while the Spurs took that path a long time ago with tanking for Duncan they have sustained it and hit on seemingly every single pick. Riley is the best salesman in professional sports. He can get anyone he wants to come to Miami and I have zero doubt that Durant will be wearing a Heat jersey in 2016. He's just that good. Everyone else is playing a different game. Hinkie took a team with no assets besides Jrue and turned it into an asset laden squad. If they all hit you will have an all star team there. I Wish that Boston took this approach more. I get that Ainge needs to collect what he believes are assets. But they really aren't anything more than fodder.

[Gainesville Celtic]

There's Buford Presti Hinkie Riley and everyone else. Hinkie and Presti took the right path for a mid market team while the Spurs took that path a long time ago with tanking for Duncan they have sustained it and hit on seemingly every single pick. Riley is the best salesman in professional sports. He can get anyone he wants to come to Miami and I have zero doubt that Durant will be wearing a Heat jersey in 2016. He's just that good. Everyone else is playing a different game. Hinkie took a team with no assets besides Jrue and turned it into an asset laden squad. If they all hit you will have an all star team there. I Wish that Boston took this approach more. I get that Ainge needs to collect what he believes are assets. But they really aren't anything more than fodder.

Spurs tanked for Duncan? I'd disagree. The Myth of the Tanking Spurs is a good write-up of why that would be the wrong term. They lucked into Duncan.

To be honest, I'm much happier with what Ainge is doing than Hinkie. It may work for Hinkie, but to suggest that there's a formula, "process" as they call it, that is fool-proof and that the Sixers will undoubtedly become champs is misunderstanding history.

I think the 2nd part of your Spurs comment is the missing element to this discussion usually: whether you're tanking for high picks or picking from the mid-to-late first round, consistently hitting on your picks is IMO the most important determiner of future success.

[BballTim]

I think the signing of Amir and the trade for Lee, together with the owner's winking proclamations the last two summers about fireworks, suggest a certain level of impatience coming from that front.

Seems to me like Wyc doesn't want to have to wait through a typical rebuilding period and wants the team to become respectable sooner.  He tasted a quick turnaround and satisfying victory back in 07-08 and the glamor of being a top team that followed, and he wants to get back there again. (See: "The Curse of the Summer of 2007" thread)

Danny is trying to make the best of that scenario, but it's like trying to have your cake and eat it too.

Yes, you can justify the Amir and Jerebko signings and the acquisition of David Lee as being just another example of "adding assets," but I don't think those moves would have happened if there weren't at least a little pressure from ownership.

  I don't think there's such a thing as a "typical rebuilding period".

[LGC88]

I don't think we are in a similar situation with the Suns.
If we were, we would have had a meeting with Monroe and we would have sign an offer sheet for Harris. Also we probably would have sign younger players in longer deals in FA, spending our money to get the best team we could.
That wasn't what happened in FA. We collected 2 vet on rental that will benefit the younger players (give them competition for minutes and provide knowledge + experience). It also make the team better to maintain TD garden full and happy (although it didn't look like it was an issue the last 2 seasons). Another important point is that it gives food to Brad Stevens for him to develop and gain another level of experience if we make the playoff again next season.
Danny is very patient and stick to his plan. The Suns are impatient and unpredictable. They can change their mind and lose value, they are aware of it and they move forward. It can be a weakness but also their strength (it almost worked if they landed LMA).
To me, 2 different views of rebuilding.
As for Philly, it's a concern for those young players that develop while losing a lot of games. I wonder if it affect their learning curve or if they will slowly just hate to be in this organisation. I hope not for them. But I hope Noel will come out at the end of his contract to sign with us 

[slamtheking]

Or, look at it this way. Danny hasn't made a single move so far that puts us in a worse position to trade for or sign a star. I'd argue he's put us in a better position. Suppose next year we want to put together a package of IT, Amir Johnson, Terry Rozier and a couple 1st rounders to swing a deadline deal. Isn't that better than any package we could've offered at the deadline this year?

I'd characterize Danny's moves so far as patient, actually.

I see what Danny is doing as trying to keep the Celtics decent and watchable while maintaining flexibility.  Very similar to what Lowe describes as the Suns' MO, though not quite as intent on identifying and investing in core pieces ASAP.

agree on that.  also, Danny's accumulation of picks from other teams aids in that respect since he's not dependent on his own team's record for landing in the lottery for a chance at a high pick.  He can let the other teams' picks he owns do that dirty work for him as he increases the overall talent on the C's. 

[PhoSita]

  I don't think there's such a thing as a "typical rebuilding period".

Sure there is, it's just a wide range.

But I can tell you that at a minimum it's longer than 2 years.



I think what I appreciate about the Philly rebuild plan is what Lowe describes as Philly's lack of interest "in any team-building path they can’t control almost completely."

That commitment to a process that has as many controllable factors and certainty as possible, with a path to a talented roster that is easily charted and predicted, even if it's impossible to say in any given year where in the top 4 or 5 picks they'll end up.

If Philly is really willing to do this for five, six, or seven seasons, it almost cannot fail. It will either land a superstar or draft so many good players that they will gather a solid NBA team.

There's a lot of appeal to that, instead of sitting here just hoping that eventually this middling roster of role players will get shuffled around enough times that it will begin to make sense.

Sure, Philly might stink for 5 years, but the Celts might be muddling around in the middle for 10, or 15.

Of course, the problem is that a talented roster is only one part of the equation, and Philly's commitment to that same process could make it very difficult to retain and maximize that talented roster.

[Evantime34]

  I don't think there's such a thing as a "typical rebuilding period".

Sure there is, it's just a wide range.

But I can tell you that at a minimum it's longer than 2 years.



I think what I appreciate about the Philly rebuild plan is what Lowe describes as Philly's lack of interest "in any team-building path they can’t control almost completely."

That commitment to a process that has as many controllable factors and certainty as possible, with a path to a talented roster that is easily charted and predicted, even if it's impossible to say in any given year where in the top 4 or 5 picks they'll end up.

If Philly is really willing to do this for five, six, or seven seasons, it almost cannot fail. It will either land a superstar or draft so many good players that they will gather a solid NBA team.

There's a lot of appeal to that, instead of sitting here just hoping that eventually this middling roster of role players will get shuffled around enough times that it will begin to make sense.

Sure, Philly might stink for 5 years, but the Celts might be muddling around in the middle for 10, or 15.

Of course, the problem is that a talented roster is only one part of the equation, and Philly's commitment to that same process could make it very difficult to retain and maximize that talented roster.

I would be upset if the C's were unenjoyable to watch due to tanking for 5-7 years.

[fairweatherfan]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

It was another quote I found interesting.  I don't think it really applies to the Celts, but it's closer than I like.

I don't think it applies. Even the Amir and Lee acquisitions are one-year commitments, and we have a bunch of draft picks that will be completely independent of our record next year (setting aside our own).

Or, look at it this way. Danny hasn't made a single move so far that puts us in a worse position to trade for or sign a star. I'd argue he's put us in a better position. Suppose next year we want to put together a package of IT, Amir Johnson, Terry Rozier and a couple 1st rounders to swing a deadline deal. Isn't that better than any package we could've offered at the deadline this year?

I'd characterize Danny's moves so far as patient, actually.

I agree - the whole idea of getting stuck in the middle or on the treadmill includes locking up your future salary on a roster core that just isn't good enough to legitimately contend.  You can even argue this is happening with teams that are considered fringe contenders, like the Clippers - they just don't have enough horses and lack the cap space to get more.

While we had a classic stuck in the middle record and seed last year, we have zero albatross contracts - all of our long-term deals are at very market-friendly prices, and we didn't commit ourselves to much of anything this offseason, other than Crowder, who again is fairly cheap.  Add to that a bunch of future picks, some of which have a chance to pay off in a major way, and I think Danny has done a great job of putting us in a position where we can actually be a decent team while still getting good draft picks AND having the contracts to trade for or sign better talent along the way. 

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

  I don't think there's such a thing as a "typical rebuilding period".

Sure there is, it's just a wide range.

But I can tell you that at a minimum it's longer than 2 years.



I think what I appreciate about the Philly rebuild plan is what Lowe describes as Philly's lack of interest "in any team-building path they can’t control almost completely."

That commitment to a process that has as many controllable factors and certainty as possible, with a path to a talented roster that is easily charted and predicted, even if it's impossible to say in any given year where in the top 4 or 5 picks they'll end up.

If Philly is really willing to do this for five, six, or seven seasons, it almost cannot fail. It will either land a superstar or draft so many good players that they will gather a solid NBA team.

There's a lot of appeal to that, instead of sitting here just hoping that eventually this middling roster of role players will get shuffled around enough times that it will begin to make sense.

Sure, Philly might stink for 5 years, but the Celts might be muddling around in the middle for 10, or 15.

Of course, the problem is that a talented roster is only one part of the equation, and Philly's commitment to that same process could make it very difficult to retain and maximize that talented roster.

I would be upset if the C's were unenjoyable to watch due to tanking for 5-7 years.

They were actually pretty enjoyable by the end of the year last year, I'd say it was about a season and a half of rough on the eyes BBall.

It's a way better watch than their post-AI years despite those teams being a bit better, Doug Collins' offense was like watching paint dry.

[PhoSita]

If your owners are only willing to punt on two seasons, you are at the mercy of lottery balls and injury luck. Blow one draft, or fall from no. 1 to no. 4 in the Anthony Davis lottery, and the teardown gives way to panicked spending toward mediocrity.

Was that a response to my post or just some extra info for the thread?

It was another quote I found interesting.  I don't think it really applies to the Celts, but it's closer than I like.

I don't think it applies. Even the Amir and Lee acquisitions are one-year commitments, and we have a bunch of draft picks that will be completely independent of our record next year (setting aside our own).

Or, look at it this way. Danny hasn't made a single move so far that puts us in a worse position to trade for or sign a star. I'd argue he's put us in a better position. Suppose next year we want to put together a package of IT, Amir Johnson, Terry Rozier and a couple 1st rounders to swing a deadline deal. Isn't that better than any package we could've offered at the deadline this year?

I'd characterize Danny's moves so far as patient, actually.

I agree - the whole idea of getting stuck in the middle or on the treadmill includes locking up your future salary on a roster core that just isn't good enough to legitimately contend.  You can even argue this is happening with teams that are considered fringe contenders, like the Clippers - they just don't have enough horses and lack the cap space to get more.

While we had a classic stuck in the middle record and seed last year, we have zero albatross contracts - all of our long-term deals are at very market-friendly prices, and we didn't commit ourselves to much of anything this offseason, other than Crowder, who again is fairly cheap.  Add to that a bunch of future picks, some of which have a chance to pay off in a major way, and I think Danny has done a great job of putting us in a position where we can actually be a decent team while still getting good draft picks AND having the contracts to trade for or sign better talent along the way.

It's true, the Celts aren't stuck in the middle, but apparently they are content to be there.

Again, I think the best comparison for this Celts team is the Rockets circa 2009-2012 (post-Yao, pre-Harden).

If the Nets picks turn into gold or a Harden opportunity comes along, we're in business.  If not, we could be hanging out in the middle for a while only to wave the flag and bottom out again a couple years from now.


Maybe it's silly to sound bitter about the team deciding to try and be decent this year.  A few weeks ago I was convinced that after a 40 win season that hurt the team pretty significantly in the draft (based on Ainge's offer for #9), Danny would find a way to engineer this thing upwards or else engineer it in the opposite direction. 

Instead, the Celts have apparently decided that just treading water is the best option.  No, they're not locked into their current position, but it looks like they may be in substantially the same position in June 2016 as they were in June 2015.  That's still purgatory in my eyes.