Author Topic: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15  (Read 72177 times)

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Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #285 on: July 14, 2015, 09:14:51 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #286 on: July 14, 2015, 09:19:26 PM »

Offline Denis998

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.
Now this is in fact a truly great example of conformation bias.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #287 on: July 14, 2015, 09:21:12 PM »

Offline alewilliam789

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.
Thank you. This dude is trying to tell me that I don't know basketball when anyone who watched the game clearly knew Smart was struggling. Ignorance is an especially powerful thing my friend. In no world does 1/11 constitute an effective game.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #288 on: July 14, 2015, 09:23:15 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.

I agree with what you just said. By traditional statistics, his stat line was atrocious.

The plus-minus gives us a bit of an idea of the effect he had defensively. He consistently took the first option of their offense away, forced ball-handlers to go away from one entire side of the court, and generally (along with Rozier, Hunter, and Thorton), had the Heat backcourt uncomfortable, nervous, and mistake-ridden.

When Smart was on the court, the Celtics were amazing defensively, which is the reason that the plus-minus stat read +20.

There is no excuse for his shot selection, inefficiency, and general unwillingness to work into the offense by getting easier looks. As bad as he was on offense, he made the Heat worse with his defense, which is why he was +20.

I'm pretty sure there is no need to lash out. It's a discussion.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #289 on: July 14, 2015, 09:25:00 PM »

Offline danglertx

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How did Walden get six steals last game and can't get in this blowout?

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #290 on: July 14, 2015, 09:27:38 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.

Unfortunately, you are misinterpreting what plus/minus is all about. 

The purpose of Plus/Minus is not to analyse a player's stats.  It's purpose is to analyse a player's impact.

The entire purpose purpose of plus/minus is to give credit to the guys who impact winning by doing all the little things that don't show up on stat sheets (hockey passes, setting good screens that lead to baskets, playing outstanding defense, boxing out so your teammate can get a rebound, hustling after loose balls, vocal leadership, savvy veteran plays, etc). 

The other purpose is to expose the opposite players - those selfish players who are all about individual stat lines, but who hurt the team when they're on the court because they do a lot of negative things that don't show up on the box score (lazy defense, not going after shooters, not boxing out, setting poor screens, stopping ball movement, poor positioning on offense/defense, not executing plays properly, etc). 

For example, some players have generated countless turnovers off savvy veteran tricks like 'puling the chair' when defending in the post.  This often leads to the offensive player losing their footing and fall over, which in turn usually leads to them travelling, losing the ball out of bounds, or a loose ball that one of your teammates ends up collecting.  This not only ends your opponent's possession (and hence, stops them from scoring) but also generates an extra offensive possession (and hence opportunity to score) for your team.  That's a potential 4 point swing on a single play, yet it doesn't show up on a stat sheet. 

Another example is if you are playing against a great scorer, and you work extremely hard defensively off the ball, so they have to work twice as hard to catch the ball...and when they do it's in a spot where they aren't comfortable.  This often leads to any of three possibilities:

(a) The player doesn't touch the ball
(b) The player catches the ball, doesn't see a good opportunity, passes back out
(c) The player catches the ball in a bad spot, can't do what he wants, forces a bad play

Either of the above is a great outcome, and if you are doing this EVERY time down the court, the potential impact that could have on the opposing teams offense is huge - that type of performance could well be the single most important factor in your team winning the game.    But if said player has 2 points on 1-6 shooting, 0 assists, 0 rebounds and 1 turnover, then a simply glance at the stat sheet would tell you that the said player had a disgraceful game and did nothing to help the team win.

As with the above examples, if you watch this game it's easy to see some of the areas in which Smart impacted the game in a positive way.  His hustle, his ball movement (passes that didn't lead to assists), his defense, his leadership (etc) were all outstanding.

People get too caught up in basic box score numbers, as if a player's individual stats are what determines whether a team wins or loses.

No. 

A team's stats are what determines whether the team wins or loses.

Boston was outscoring the Heat by 20 Points Per 100 Possessions more when Smart was on the court, compared to when he was off the court, despite the fact that he had a bad shooting night and generally put up unimpressive box score numbers.  That tells you all you need to know about his impact on the game (which was overwhelmingly positive).

« Last Edit: July 14, 2015, 09:55:05 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #291 on: July 14, 2015, 09:30:56 PM »

Offline KeepRondo

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Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
Why? He's terrible at getting space when driving so those threes are his only open looks. Happens almost every game so yeah I bring it up.

My inner D.O.S. is coming out...



Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
The real problem, if you'd like to know, is that smart can't get better shots consistently.  As was said earlier in this thread, that's why smart settles.  Because those are about the best shots he can get.  And defenses are happy to give them to him.

See above. Good thing your opinion is necessarily authoritative...
How am I being biased? My one and only hoby is following Celtics and my favorite player is Smart after IT4.

"Confirmation Bias"..... Different thing.
What am I interpretting incorrectly because of my bias?

Seems kind of odd to be called out for confirmation bias but why dont you explain my bias.

You've been pushing this whole "Smart can't get past his defender and that's why he shoots so many threes" notion all summer, but you conveniently ignore that in the three games before this he got to the hole quite regularly. It doesn't mean he always finished, but he's definitely been able to get past his defender.

I think he is just a Westbrook-type who is going to have some questionable shot selection at times, not that he can't get to the hole.
You feel like I'm pushing this on you causr you resist this obvious observation. But honestly, I could care less about proving any of my thoughts to others. I'm just making observations. You're obviously a deep thinker and I'm pretty simple. Don't try to make more out of my posts then there is because hinestly, there are no motives behind them.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #292 on: July 14, 2015, 09:36:11 PM »

Offline tankcity!

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Normal players have 5 gears. Rozier has a 6th. The kid has jets.

When the defense forgets, Terry turns on the jets.

That's something Bill Simmons would say

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #293 on: July 14, 2015, 09:36:46 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
Why? He's terrible at getting space when driving so those threes are his only open looks. Happens almost every game so yeah I bring it up.

KeepRONDO never hesitates to bash Smart whenever the opportunity arises.  Tired.
Before a game on Christmas against the Pacers, Bird told Chuck Person that he had a present for him. During the game, Bird shot a 3-pointer in front of Person. Immediately after releasing the ball, Bird said to Person, "Merry F!#*ing Christmas!" and then the shot went in.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #294 on: July 14, 2015, 09:37:46 PM »

Offline Jonny CC

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Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
Why? He's terrible at getting space when driving so those threes are his only open looks. Happens almost every game so yeah I bring it up.

My inner D.O.S. is coming out...



Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
The real problem, if you'd like to know, is that smart can't get better shots consistently.  As was said earlier in this thread, that's why smart settles.  Because those are about the best shots he can get.  And defenses are happy to give them to him.

See above. Good thing your opinion is necessarily authoritative...
How am I being biased? My one and only hoby is following Celtics and my favorite player is Smart after IT4.

"Confirmation Bias"..... Different thing.
What am I interpretting incorrectly because of my bias?

Seems kind of odd to be called out for confirmation bias but why dont you explain my bias.

You've been pushing this whole "Smart can't get past his defender and that's why he shoots so many threes" notion all summer, but you conveniently ignore that in the three games before this he got to the hole quite regularly. It doesn't mean he always finished, but he's definitely been able to get past his defender.

I think he is just a Westbrook-type who is going to have some questionable shot selection at times, not that he can't get to the hole.
You feel like I'm pushing this on you causr you resist this obvious observation. But honestly, I could care less about proving any of my thoughts to others. I'm just making observations. You're obviously a deep thinker and I'm pretty simple. Don't try to make more out of my posts then there is because hinestly, there are no motives behind them.

The only motive you have is to crap on Smart. 
Before a game on Christmas against the Pacers, Bird told Chuck Person that he had a present for him. During the game, Bird shot a 3-pointer in front of Person. Immediately after releasing the ball, Bird said to Person, "Merry F!#*ing Christmas!" and then the shot went in.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #295 on: July 14, 2015, 09:39:07 PM »

Offline colincb

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Normal players have 5 gears. Rozier has a 6th. The kid has jets.

When the defense forgets, Terry turns on the jets.

That's something Bill Simmons would say

Seems to be a faux notbillsimmons.

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #296 on: July 14, 2015, 09:42:33 PM »

Offline CelticSooner

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C's will be the 2 seed in the tourney

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #297 on: July 14, 2015, 09:50:23 PM »

Offline KeepRondo

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Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
Why? He's terrible at getting space when driving so those threes are his only open looks. Happens almost every game so yeah I bring it up.

My inner D.O.S. is coming out...



Pretty soon Smart is going to be shooting 20 percent for summer league. At what point do we just conclude that Smart is a terrible shooter.

After all of this time watching this, have you still not caught on that it's a problem of shot selection not him shooting? He's shown that he can shoot the ball. He's just displayed horrible shot selection. Even the best shooters have off days...

We shouldn't be having this argument every single game...
The real problem, if you'd like to know, is that smart can't get better shots consistently.  As was said earlier in this thread, that's why smart settles.  Because those are about the best shots he can get.  And defenses are happy to give them to him.

See above. Good thing your opinion is necessarily authoritative...
How am I being biased? My one and only hoby is following Celtics and my favorite player is Smart after IT4.

"Confirmation Bias"..... Different thing.
What am I interpretting incorrectly because of my bias?

Seems kind of odd to be called out for confirmation bias but why dont you explain my bias.

You've been pushing this whole "Smart can't get past his defender and that's why he shoots so many threes" notion all summer, but you conveniently ignore that in the three games before this he got to the hole quite regularly. It doesn't mean he always finished, but he's definitely been able to get past his defender.

I think he is just a Westbrook-type who is going to have some questionable shot selection at times, not that he can't get to the hole.
You feel like I'm pushing this on you causr you resist this obvious observation. But honestly, I could care less about proving any of my thoughts to others. I'm just making observations. You're obviously a deep thinker and I'm pretty simple. Don't try to make more out of my posts then there is because hinestly, there are no motives behind them.

The only motive you have is to crap on Smart.
why are you always avoiding the content of my messages and instead attacking my reasons?

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #298 on: July 14, 2015, 09:53:17 PM »

Offline colincb

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This is why you can't always trust the plus/minus stat.

Smart's stats:

6 points on 1 for 11 from the field, 0 of 8 behind the arc.

3 assists to 2 turnovers

4 of 6 from the FT line

&

2 steals

Yet he has a +20 for the game????

Or, on the other hand, the problem isn't with the stat, but your assessment about what an effective game is.
The problem is that's can be skewed with low sample sizes.  In this case, plus minus is lying like a thief.  No sane person can interpret smart's stat line and call it anything less than atrocious.

Unfortunately, you are misinterpreting what plus/minus is all about. 

The purpose of Plus/Minus is not to analyse a player's stats.  It's purpose is to analyse a player's impact.

The entire purpose purpose of plus/minus is to give credit to the guys who impact winning by doing all the little things that don't show up on stat sheets (hockey passes, setting good screens that lead to baskets, playing outstanding defense, boxing out so your teammate can get a rebound, hustling after loose balls, vocal leadership, savvy veteran plays, etc). 

Likewise, to expose the selfish players who are all about individual stat lines, but who hurt the team when they're on the court because they do a lot of negative things that don't show up on the box score (lazy defense, not going after shooters, not boxing out, setting poor screens, stopping ball movement, poor positioning on offense/defense, not executing plays properly, etc). 

If you watch this game it's easy to see that Smart's hustle, his ball movement (passes that didn't lead to assists), his defense (etc) were all outstanding in this game - but none of those are things tracked by basic stats.

People get too caught up in basic box score numbers, as if a player's individual stats are what determines whether a team wins or loses.

No. 

A team's stats are what determines whether the team wins or loses.

Boston was outscoring the Heat by 20 Points Per 100 Possessions more when Smart was on the court, compared to when he was off the court, despite the fact that he had a bad shooting night and generally put up unimpressive box score numbers. 

Obviously there were things he did, that don't show on the box score, that had a huge positive impact for Boston.

What part of that is difficult to interpret?

Like defense? 

BB stats that fans get aren't very good picking up the effect of a strong defender. +/- isn't perfect, but Smart was basically the best +/- rookie who was in the draft and 2nd to Mirotic among rookies (and Mirotic's a faux rookie), and the sample was plenty big enough. Sort the link below for BPM and see.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_advanced.html?lid=header_seasons

Re: Vegas Summer League: Game 3 Celtics (2-0) vs Heat (1-1) 7/14/15
« Reply #299 on: July 14, 2015, 09:55:58 PM »

Offline colincb

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Brian Robb
@CelticsHub 8 mins ago

The Celtics finish with 3-0 record in Vegas and 9 quarter points, earning them the No. 2 seed for tourney. Next game: Thursday at 10pm ET.