Random thoughts to talk you off the ledge

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Thanks for a level-headed and well-thought-out post, Mr. H.

I was one of those who reacted to the draft in utter dismay and also didn't expect much from free agency (rightly, as it turned out). I'm still not high on Boston's offseason, and I still don't expect much improvement in the team's record, but at least I've stepped back from the ledge, thanks partly to you. TP.

[slamtheking]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

going in to this year, ignoring the improvements other teams have made, the C's have basically swapped out Amir for Bass.  I like Amir and see that as a slight improvement -- figuring Amir to get a lot of time at center and keeping Sully and KO at PF.  The have IT and Crowder for the full season -- sure, a plus, but let's be honest, they're still just bench-quality guys.  a full season of Jerebko.  not going to move the needle at all.  3 rookies with only Rozier that might get any decent minutes at some point but he duplicates what Smart does.  As for the young guys, sure I figure they'll improve somewhat but I also think the young players on other teams will improve as well and since a number of them on other teams were higher draft picks, I don't think it's a stretch to believe those players could make larger improvements in their games.

Now, if I look at the other teams in the East, no one that finished with a better record than us figures to do worse next year, certainly not to the point where they'd be a worse team than the C's.  That's 6 teams right there penned in for the playoffs.  Miami and Indy finished not too far behind us and are getting major stars back this season (not to mention improving via the draft).  I would anticipate them leapfrogging us in the standings.  Could probably pen them in as the other 2 playoff teams so C's looking at the lottery.

Next, Charlotte.  they underperformed last year and have made moves to address that.  like the moves or not, they could improve enough to pass us as well.  C's had the same record as Utah.  They have a better balanced roster and young players who have actually shown improvement so it's not a stretch to think that will continue.  That's not even counting any improvement out of Exum who could start showing he deserved to be a high pick.  Add in another lotto-talent this year so more improvement.  Another team that could finish with a better record than the C's. 

While I'm at it in terms of the West, 7 of the Western playoff teams figure to be back there next year with OKC replacing Dallas.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that the last 2 Western teams that miss the playoffs will each have a better record than the first eastern team to miss the playoffs further pushing the C's down into the lottery (improving the odds in other words). Depending on what Phx does with their roster and if Minny's youth movement gels, C's could finish with a worse record than them as well.

I know this thread is intended to get people thinking positive thoughts but just based on what's occurred so far, I don't think it's a stretch that the C's will not only miss the playoffs but could seriously be looking at maybe the 8th best odds of getting the top pick in the lottery. 

[Chris22]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

going in to this year, ignoring the improvements other teams have made, the C's have basically swapped out Amir for Bass.  I like Amir and see that as a slight improvement -- figuring Amir to get a lot of time at center and keeping Sully and KO at PF.  The have IT and Crowder for the full season -- sure, a plus, but let's be honest, they're still just bench-quality guys.  a full season of Jerebko.  not going to move the needle at all.  3 rookies with only Rozier that might get any decent minutes at some point but he duplicates what Smart does.  As for the young guys, sure I figure they'll improve somewhat but I also think the young players on other teams will improve as well and since a number of them on other teams were higher draft picks, I don't think it's a stretch to believe those players could make larger improvements in their games.

Now, if I look at the other teams in the East, no one that finished with a better record than us figures to do worse next year, certainly not to the point where they'd be a worse team than the C's.  That's 6 teams right there penned in for the playoffs.  Miami and Indy finished not too far behind us and are getting major stars back this season (not to mention improving via the draft).  I would anticipate them leapfrogging us in the standings.  Could probably pen them in as the other 2 playoff teams so C's looking at the lottery.

Next, Charlotte.  they underperformed last year and have made moves to address that.  like the moves or not, they could improve enough to pass us as well.  C's had the same record as Utah.  They have a better balanced roster and young players who have actually shown improvement so it's not a stretch to think that will continue.  That's not even counting any improvement out of Exum who could start showing he deserved to be a high pick.  Add in another lotto-talent this year so more improvement.  Another team that could finish with a better record than the C's. 

While I'm at it in terms of the West, 7 of the Western playoff teams figure to be back there next year with OKC replacing Dallas.  I don't think it's a stretch to think that the last 2 Western teams that miss the playoffs will each have a better record than the first eastern team to miss the playoffs further pushing the C's down into the lottery (improving the odds in other words). Depending on what Phx does with their roster and if Minny's youth movement gels, C's could finish with a worse record than them as well.

I know this thread is intended to get people thinking positive thoughts but just based on what's occurred so far, I don't think it's a stretch that the C's will not only miss the playoffs but could seriously be looking at maybe the 8th best odds of getting the top pick in the lottery.

Want to bet?

[max215]

TP to the OP. Good post. I love #1 as it has proven so true and is a myth that needs to die already.

[JR4]

Hello everyone. Newbie here. First post

I am by nature an optimist. I tuned in to almost every game last season. I was amazed how
a team of no names grew as a team and even made the playoffs. Listening Coach Stevens talk I am reminded of how I felt when I first heard Coach Belichick speak in his early days and that was here's a guy that really knows his stuff.  I believe he will be better this year.

Just one note: The offseason is not finished. The current roster of any team is most likely not going to be the one that starts the season. So thoughts here are only based on current roster.

I believe the Celtics will be better this year and will win the Division.
Why? To date look at changes that have been made:

2015 Draft high potential immediate impact player (top 10 pick type):
76ers with Okafor is significant.
Knicks with Porzingis has that potential but he is hurt may not play summer but at 220,he’s not at this point a big big. Other draft picks may contribute off bench  but I don't believe any division team  is significantly better than Celtics from this years draft.

Free Agency
Knicks:
  Lost=9 Retained=0   New Players=1 (Arron Afflalo)
Toronto
  Lost=6 Retained=0   New Players=1 (DeMarre Carroll)
Nets
Lost=4 Retained=2   New Player=0
76s
Lost=4 Retained=2   New Players=0
Boston
Lost=2 Retained=2  New Players=1 (Amir Johnson)


Note, 76ers and Knicks had a long way to go to catch up. They have
made improvement but still have a ways to go.
I don't see  either beating the C's.

So far Nets have done nothing to improve their roster.

Toronto remains the potential top dog in this division.
 With the pickup DeMarre Carroll they should be improved with their starters but
the loss of Amir Johnson may offset gains here.

Celtics should improve defensively with the pickup of Amir Johnson if healthy.
Smart started shooting better as season went on and I expect he will improve.
The Celtics bench should see an improved defense and offense if the new draft picks
can make the transition quick enough. Interested to see summer league.

I believe in coach Stevens. Has he made mistakes? Sure but I believe he will learn
from mistakes made and will become a better coach this year.
 
So at this point I think Celtics have a real good shot at winning the division, ...
Optimistically.

[Evantime34]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

You don't see how we are much better than last year?
We have added IT, Crowder, Amir, Rozier, Hunter, Jerebko, and Mickey.
All of our youngsters are a year older. James Young just put on 20 lbs of muscle.
And we were 24-12 in our last 36 games.
I think people here are underrating our team.

the 24-12 pace at the end of last season was deceptive.  no one can look at that and seriously extrapolate the team will perform at an equivalent pace this season. 

I think this is much more of an opinion than a fact. Lots of people can extrapolate how well they played in the second half over a full year.

I for one think it can be extrapolated +/- 5 wins. People use the argument that other teams don't try as hard during the dog days of the NBA. But I think outworking teams is just what will happen this upcoming year. It was also the only time they had continuity because there weren't a lot of roster changes from that point on. I think how they finished the season is much more of an indicator than how we played before that point in the season.

There is something to be said for continuity of roster and having the right type of players with the right attitude on your team. None of those positives will change from last year. An argument can absolutely be made for the end to this season carrying over to next season and you can't simply dismiss it as 100% false because it's not what you believe.

[Chief Macho]

 Not Danny's fault.  Never is.     

[GreenFaith1819]

Hey, we're better off than the Lakers LOL.

They drafted DeAngelo Russell with the intention, I guess, of "Taking care of their PG issues"....maybe thinking a healthy (but 37 YO) Kobe, J Randle and Russell would be enough to draw a Big Name.

Not so .

They're discussing on NBATV how the Lakers seem to be missing out on ALL big names, now....this "Warm Weather, Night life, Sunny beaches" mess that seem to be used as an excuse as to why players favor the Lakers? Not anymore.

They could still draw a big name, but it's not looking good for them. Serves them right. As much as I'd love for them to compete vs BOS for championships again, I wouldn't mind seeing them fester in Lotteryville for the next 10 years.

As for BOS, at least Danny addressed some of our Rim Protection issues with a still-young and talented Amir Johnson - whom reportedly is a team player and glue guy.

Danny STILL has ALL of our assets for the future. We are still in a flexible spot.

We are bringing back the core of a team that grew together (despite the trade and injury upheavals of last season).

We are bringing back a playoff-savvy core.

Looking forward to an improved Smart, a healthy Sully, and the rest of our team. We're going to win most of our games and compete vs the top teams.

When Danny has an opportunity that presents itself, he'll strike. And I hope it's not before. Stay your hand, Danny - be patient.

[blink]

I am somewhat of an optimist as well, so I appreciate the breath of fresh air from the OP.  But I think we all accept that

1) we weren't able to get the players we wanted out of the draft even with all our future picks
2) we weren't really even on the radar for the bigger names in FA this summer for whatever various reasons.  (love was the closest but probably wasn't even close at all)

Those two things are a pretty major blow to the rebuilding effort here.  Probably not that much that DA could do about it, but it is what it is, and that isn't good.

Yes we have a up and coming coach, and a bunch of quality role players on our team who hustle and play like we want our team to play.  But this off season has been at best treading water, and at worst cold water reality in the face about the value of our 'assets'.

I think Miami and Indy will replace Boston and the Nets in the playoffs this year.  We might win almost as many games, but I look at our roster (as of today) and being realistic we didn't get better, and some other teams in the east did.  I hope I am wrong.

I hope there are still trade options that will allow us to make a bigger move, but who knows.  I hope DA can pull something out of thin air. 

[byennie]

24-12 is a 55 win pace, which would be enough for a #2 seed the last 3 years. That's probably too much to ask, but miss the playoffs? In that same time period, 38 wins has gotten you in every year. We've brought everyone back, many of whom are young players improving, except for Amir Johnson who is a clear upgrade over Bass and a starting center from a playoff team.

24-12 ~ 55-27 (#2 seed)
20-16 ~ 45-37 (#5 seed)
17-19 ~ 38-44 (#8 seed)

And folks are saying that we won't even accomplish the lowest tier above? Talk about pessimism.

[JohnBoy65]

I personally like what DA did this free agency. Sure, I would love to have gotten a big name FA. Unfortunately we didn't, but I think DA put is in a PERFECT place going forward. Locked up some more decent guys to really team friendly contracts. Makes it PERFECT to set up a trade with a disgruntled star, and we still will have 60mill in cap space next year. Insane! I like what Danny has done.

[Chris22]

24-12 is a 55 win pace, which would be enough for a #2 seed the last 3 years. That's probably too much to ask, but miss the playoffs? In that same time period, 38 wins has gotten you in every year. We've brought everyone back, many of whom are young players improving, except for Amir Johnson who is a clear upgrade over Bass and a starting center from a playoff team.

24-12 ~ 55-27 (#2 seed)
20-16 ~ 45-37 (#5 seed)
17-19 ~ 38-44 (#8 seed)

And folks are saying that we won't even accomplish the lowest tier above? Talk about pessimism.

And we only had IT at the end of the season.
Just remember where we were last November and where we are now. We have much better team now.

[blink]

24-12 is a 55 win pace, which would be enough for a #2 seed the last 3 years. That's probably too much to ask, but miss the playoffs? In that same time period, 38 wins has gotten you in every year. We've brought everyone back, many of whom are young players improving, except for Amir Johnson who is a clear upgrade over Bass and a starting center from a playoff team.

24-12 ~ 55-27 (#2 seed)
20-16 ~ 45-37 (#5 seed)
17-19 ~ 38-44 (#8 seed)

And folks are saying that we won't even accomplish the lowest tier above? Talk about pessimism.

I don't think it is logical to argue that we are going to be winning at any where near the 55 win pace that we ended the season on.  We had a hot streak at the end of the year playing a lot of mediocre teams.  We won 6 in a row to end the season with some of those wins coming against teams that were resting players for the playoffs.  Once we got to the playoffs we were exposed.

I want us to win as much as everyone else, but I don't see the logic in pulling out the 1/2 season stretch as evidence that we are for sure a playoff team this year.  We might be.  If Smart, Sully or KO can make a big leap sure we will be in the mix for one of the last spots.  But other teams have improved their roster with significant players coming back or being drafted.

Indiana gets Paul George back, signed M. Ellis, and drafted Turner from Texas.

Miami has Bosh, Wade, Dragic, Deng, and drafted Winslow.

I think both of those teams will be back in the playoffs this year.  I think the east will be a bit better overall this year.  I like our players a lot, and I want them to do well.  Our talent level just isn't high enough to really consider us a lock for the playoffs and we didn't really improve the talent level in the draft or so far in FA.

[LGC88]

I figured someone needed to inject some positivity into this forum, so here are some random thoughts, all of which are intended to talk you off the ledge…

1)   So-called “hot” free agent destinations struck out. If you haven’t read about how the Lakers struck out on Lamarcus Aldridge, you should. See the link below this bullet for an excellent article by Kelly Dwyer. It’s really telling. Basically Aldridge was looking for a team with a vision, including one that was based on advanced analytics, and the Lakers’ presentation to him fell flat. Give NBA players some credit. This notion that all they want is palm trees, warm weather, low income tax rates and clubs that stay open past 2am is not based in reality. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: the glamorous Knicks haven’t signed anybody of consequence yet, either. In the end, almost all the big-name free agents will stay with their current teams. The remaining ones, it would seem, are attracted to places with a clear path forward and a chance to play for a title.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-lakers-lost-out-on-lamarcus-aldridge-by-being-the-lakers-222248637.html

2)   Tank at this point? You may lose the Celtics biggest asset. I’m talking about Stevens. This is a point that some posters bring up on occasion, but doesn’t get enough attention. We’re 2 years into a 6-year contract for Brad Stevens. Judging from a handful of reports that have come out since he came to Boston, there are plenty of offers waiting for him in the college game. Can you realistically scrap the whole process and embrace a painful 1-3 years of horrible losing without him jumping ship? If he does, how easily can you replace him with another good young coach and rebuild the basketball culture that Stevens is putting in place? In the end, the only way from here is to move forward, not back.

3)   Be thankful our GM isn’t stupid enough to sacrifice flexibility. Ainge has been beating this drum for a while now, talking endlessly about how you can’t perfectly predict the future, you’ve just got to be ready and flexible to pounce when the right opportunity presents itself. This is what he did the first time, lest we forget. He had to tear down the Gaston/Jim O’brien/Pierce&Antoine version of the Celtics that was going nowhere, so he spent years gathering up assets and nurturing young players until something happened, specifically that KG finally gave up on the Timberwolves and decided for a fresh start. We don’t know when this opportunity will come, but we should be thankful our GM is thinking this way. There’s a reason why those Jerebko and Amir Johnson 2nd years are unguaranteed. Ainge is loading the bazooka, but he won't waste his ammunition without a bonafide target in sight.

4)   Non-lottery picks are not worthless. After the draft, when Charlotte reportedly turned down 4 first-rounders for the #9 pick, a lot of us were quick to declare all of the Celtics’ non-lottery picks to be worth nothing more than a bag of balls. Slow down. Let’s keep in mind that the headliner for the KG deal, Al Jefferson, was the 15th pick. A lot of the top free agents we’ve been salivating over have been low-ish picks; Jimmy Butler was 30th , Draymond Green was 35th, Tobias Harris was 19th. Having lots of picks isn’t just about moving up. It’s having lots of small chances at striking gold.

5)   Who says we’ll be worse than last year? I keep hearing this and I don’t get it. I suppose I understand the argument that the rest of the East will improve over last year. But so will we. Nevermind the fact that Amir Johnson is an upgrade over Bass, or that we’ve added some depth through the draft. We’ll also have Isaiah for the whole year (didn’t we have the #2 record in the East last year after trading for him?), a presumably improved Marcus Smart in his 2nd year and with a fresher ankle. Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Sullinger are all 24. Zeller is 25. Thomas and Evan Turner are 26. Just keeping these guys together and developing them should lift the team gradually, until Ainge has an opportunity to make a bigger move.

In other words, calm down, relax, and enjoy the ride.

That's a well deserved TP from me.
For those who understand Danny, enjoy the ride!

[dreamgreen]

24-12 is a 55 win pace, which would be enough for a #2 seed the last 3 years. That's probably too much to ask, but miss the playoffs? In that same time period, 38 wins has gotten you in every year. We've brought everyone back, many of whom are young players improving, except for Amir Johnson who is a clear upgrade over Bass and a starting center from a playoff team.

24-12 ~ 55-27 (#2 seed)
20-16 ~ 45-37 (#5 seed)
17-19 ~ 38-44 (#8 seed)

And folks are saying that we won't even accomplish the lowest tier above? Talk about pessimism.

I don't think it is logical to argue that we are going to be winning at any where near the 55 win pace that we ended the season on.  We had a hot streak at the end of the year playing a lot of mediocre teams.  We won 6 in a row to end the season with some of those wins coming against teams that were resting players for the playoffs.  Once we got to the playoffs we were exposed.

I want us to win as much as everyone else, but I don't see the logic in pulling out the 1/2 season stretch as evidence that we are for sure a playoff team this year.  We might be.  If Smart, Sully or KO can make a big leap sure we will be in the mix for one of the last spots.  But other teams have improved their roster with significant players coming back or being drafted.

Indiana gets Paul George back, signed M. Ellis, and drafted Turner from Texas.

Miami has Bosh, Wade, Dragic, Deng, and drafted Winslow.

I think both of those teams will be back in the playoffs this year.  I think the east will be a bit better overall this year.  I like our players a lot, and I want them to do well.  Our talent level just isn't high enough to really consider us a lock for the playoffs and we didn't really improve the talent level in the draft or so far in FA.

TP

That's exactly how I feel about it, well said and thought out and you will be correct, we will finish 9th is my guess.