Random thoughts to talk you off the ledge

[Ed Hollison]

I figured someone needed to inject some positivity into this forum, so here are some random thoughts, all of which are intended to talk you off the ledge…

1)   So-called “hot” free agent destinations struck out. If you haven’t read about how the Lakers struck out on Lamarcus Aldridge, you should. See the link below this bullet for an excellent article by Kelly Dwyer. It’s really telling. Basically Aldridge was looking for a team with a vision, including one that was based on advanced analytics, and the Lakers’ presentation to him fell flat. Give NBA players some credit. This notion that all they want is palm trees, warm weather, low income tax rates and clubs that stay open past 2am is not based in reality. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: the glamorous Knicks haven’t signed anybody of consequence yet, either. In the end, almost all the big-name free agents will stay with their current teams. The remaining ones, it would seem, are attracted to places with a clear path forward and a chance to play for a title.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-lakers-lost-out-on-lamarcus-aldridge-by-being-the-lakers-222248637.html

2)   Tank at this point? You may lose the Celtics biggest asset. I’m talking about Stevens. This is a point that some posters bring up on occasion, but doesn’t get enough attention. We’re 2 years into a 6-year contract for Brad Stevens. Judging from a handful of reports that have come out since he came to Boston, there are plenty of offers waiting for him in the college game. Can you realistically scrap the whole process and embrace a painful 1-3 years of horrible losing without him jumping ship? If he does, how easily can you replace him with another good young coach and rebuild the basketball culture that Stevens is putting in place? In the end, the only way from here is to move forward, not back.

3)   Be thankful our GM isn’t stupid enough to sacrifice flexibility. Ainge has been beating this drum for a while now, talking endlessly about how you can’t perfectly predict the future, you’ve just got to be ready and flexible to pounce when the right opportunity presents itself. This is what he did the first time, lest we forget. He had to tear down the Gaston/Jim O’brien/Pierce&Antoine version of the Celtics that was going nowhere, so he spent years gathering up assets and nurturing young players until something happened, specifically that KG finally gave up on the Timberwolves and decided for a fresh start. We don’t know when this opportunity will come, but we should be thankful our GM is thinking this way. There’s a reason why those Jerebko and Amir Johnson 2nd years are unguaranteed. Ainge is loading the bazooka, but he won't waste his ammunition without a bonafide target in sight.

4)   Non-lottery picks are not worthless. After the draft, when Charlotte reportedly turned down 4 first-rounders for the #9 pick, a lot of us were quick to declare all of the Celtics’ non-lottery picks to be worth nothing more than a bag of balls. Slow down. Let’s keep in mind that the headliner for the KG deal, Al Jefferson, was the 15th pick. A lot of the top free agents we’ve been salivating over have been low-ish picks; Jimmy Butler was 30th , Draymond Green was 35th, Tobias Harris was 19th. Having lots of picks isn’t just about moving up. It’s having lots of small chances at striking gold.

5)   Who says we’ll be worse than last year? I keep hearing this and I don’t get it. I suppose I understand the argument that the rest of the East will improve over last year. But so will we. Nevermind the fact that Amir Johnson is an upgrade over Bass, or that we’ve added some depth through the draft. We’ll also have Isaiah for the whole year (didn’t we have the #2 record in the East last year after trading for him?), a presumably improved Marcus Smart in his 2nd year and with a fresher ankle. Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Sullinger are all 24. Zeller is 25. Thomas and Evan Turner are 26. Just keeping these guys together and developing them should lift the team gradually, until Ainge has an opportunity to make a bigger move.

In other words, calm down, relax, and enjoy the ride.

[fairweatherfan]

I figured someone needed to inject some positivity into this forum, so here are some random thoughts, all of which are intended to talk you off the ledge…

1)   So-called “hot” free agent destinations struck out. If you haven’t read about how the Lakers struck out on Lamarcus Aldridge, you should. See the link below this bullet for an excellent article by Kelly Dwyer. It’s really telling. Basically Aldridge was looking for a team with a vision, including one that was based on advanced analytics, and the Lakers’ presentation to him fell flat. Give NBA players some credit. This notion that all they want is palm trees, warm weather, low income tax rates and clubs that stay open past 2am is not based in reality. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: the glamorous Knicks haven’t signed anybody of consequence yet, either. In the end, almost all the big-name free agents will stay with their current teams. The remaining ones, it would seem, are attracted to places with a clear path forward and a chance to play for a title.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-lakers-lost-out-on-lamarcus-aldridge-by-being-the-lakers-222248637.html

I'm glad you brought this up because I've noticed it too - the FA winners so far aren't the glamor cities with terrible teams, they're the teams that are already in a position to win and have competent front offices.  I believe we've already got the front office, but we're clearly not good enough yet.

Which is why I don't understand criticisms that the team is trying to steadily improve instead of blowing up and bottoming out again.  If we're whiffing on high-end FAs, the trends in the market indicate that improving as much as possible without sacrificing long-term salary flexibility is exactly what we should be doing if we want that to change.

[fairweatherfan]

...and now Monroe spurns the Knicks to sign with Milwaukee, adding to the trend of preferring the better team over the bigger city.

[Chris22]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

[PhoSita]

Which is why I don't understand criticisms that the team is trying to steadily improve instead of blowing up and bottoming out again.  If we're whiffing on high-end FAs, the trends in the market indicate that improving as much as possible without sacrificing long-term salary flexibility is exactly what we should be doing if we want that to change.

Well, except it seems like free agents want to go to teams that have already demonstrated an ability to put GOOD players around them.

I don't think it's enough to simply enjoy success i.e. win a respectable amount of games.  I think you need to have some exciting players on your team AND you need to show that those players know how to win some games.


The Celts have a roster full of role players but I don't think any of them is cause for a major free agent to say "Hey, I'd really love to play with that guy."

[BudweiserCeltic]

Which is why I don't understand criticisms that the team is trying to steadily improve instead of blowing up and bottoming out again.  If we're whiffing on high-end FAs, the trends in the market indicate that improving as much as possible without sacrificing long-term salary flexibility is exactly what we should be doing if we want that to change.

Well, except it seems like free agents want to go to teams that have already demonstrated an ability to put GOOD players around them.

I don't think it's enough to simply enjoy success i.e. win a respectable amount of games.  I think you need to have some exciting players on your team AND you need to show that those players know how to win some games.


The Celts have a roster full of role players but I don't think any of them is cause for a major free agent to say "Hey, I'd really love to play with that guy."

I'm still of the opinion that if we really wanted Monroe, he would be here. I have a feeling that Ainge has been a bit hesitant with our next year's cap space for my liking. And maybe he wasn't that all interested in Monroe in the first place. Just a feeling I have.

I really do think if we had gone full on press on him, he'd be with us rather than the Bucks.

[D.o.s.]

I would trade Brad Stevens for a player that would help us win 50 games a season.

[PhoSita]

I have a feeling that Ainge has been a bit hesitant with our next year's cap space for my liking.

Yeah, I get that sense too.  I don't understand it. 

The free agent class is not going to be so much better next year -- the Celts aren't getting Kevin Durant, kids -- and everybody in the league will have cap space so the market will be even more competitive.

I wanted the Celts to add at least one major piece this summer so they could hopefully show some more improvement next season and head into next summer looking like a team that might be one piece away.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I have a feeling that Ainge has been a bit hesitant with our next year's cap space for my liking.

Yeah, I get that sense too.  I don't understand it. 

The free agent class is not going to be so much better next year -- the Celts aren't getting Kevin Durant, kids -- and everybody in the league will have cap space so the market will be even more competitive.

I wanted the Celts to add at least one major piece this summer so they could hopefully show some more improvement next season and head into next summer looking like a team that might be one piece away.

I thought that would've been the correct course of action.

That said, as some of he agreements already in place might show, I've always said that Ainge prefers to operate over the cap and make trades, essentially retaining all his TPEs. Not sure if that's the correct course of action, but it does mean we need to be a bit more patient for now with the process.

[BadNewsBarnes]

I figured someone needed to inject some positivity into this forum, so here are some random thoughts, all of which are intended to talk you off the ledge…

I have to admit I bought into the hype about this off season.  We had lots of assets including cap space, trade exceptions and a plethora of draft picks.  Danny got our hopes up right before the draft that something was in the works ? ?stay tuned? he said. 

Draft night was a disappointment however.  But I can?t really trash Danny for not pulling something off.  As we now know he tried desperately to move up and draft Justise Winslow.  Unfortunately, it takes two to tango and apparently we made a substantial offer that MJ & the Hornets turned down.  Hopefully it comes back to bite them in the a$$.  As for our picks I guess we?ll have to wait and see how they perform.  Picking at #16 is a crap shoot.  We can debate about whether they should?ve picked Sam Dekker, Bobby Portis or Jerian Grant but none of them, as with Rozier, are sure bets to be productive NBA players.  Time will tell.

As far as the free agent market is concerned I can?t trash Danny here either.  Since we are not close to contending we are not an attractive destination right now.  The Cavs could offer Kevin Love the most money so he took the money and stayed.  We didn?t get him but none of the other pursuers did either.  LaMarcus Aldridge wants to play for a contender and comes from Texas (no state income tax) and appears to be headed in that direction, although Phoenix is making a hard push.  Marc Gasol?  Looks like he has no intention of leaving Memphis.  Realistically we were long shots to land any of these guys.  Two of them stayed or will be staying with their teams and the other wants to go to a contender. 

So, am I disappointed in this off season?  Absolutely!  Do I blame Danny Ainge and want him fired for not landing a top free agent or a top draft pick?  Absolutely not!  Would another GM have done a better job and enticed Charlotte to trade us their pick or convinced one of the top tier free agents to come to Boston?  I doubt it.  The only thing I hold against Danny & Wyc is that they continue to build our hopes up with comments like ?stay tuned? and ?fireworks? and they must?ve known that the odds of delivering were not good.

[manl_lui]

I figured someone needed to inject some positivity into this forum, so here are some random thoughts, all of which are intended to talk you off the ledge…

1)   So-called “hot” free agent destinations struck out. If you haven’t read about how the Lakers struck out on Lamarcus Aldridge, you should. See the link below this bullet for an excellent article by Kelly Dwyer. It’s really telling. Basically Aldridge was looking for a team with a vision, including one that was based on advanced analytics, and the Lakers’ presentation to him fell flat. Give NBA players some credit. This notion that all they want is palm trees, warm weather, low income tax rates and clubs that stay open past 2am is not based in reality. Oh yeah, I almost forgot: the glamorous Knicks haven’t signed anybody of consequence yet, either. In the end, almost all the big-name free agents will stay with their current teams. The remaining ones, it would seem, are attracted to places with a clear path forward and a chance to play for a title.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/the-lakers-lost-out-on-lamarcus-aldridge-by-being-the-lakers-222248637.html

I'm glad you brought this up because I've noticed it too - the FA winners so far aren't the glamor cities with terrible teams, they're the teams that are already in a position to win and have competent front offices.  I believe we've already got the front office, but we're clearly not good enough yet.

Which is why I don't understand criticisms that the team is trying to steadily improve instead of blowing up and bottoming out again.  If we're whiffing on high-end FAs, the trends in the market indicate that improving as much as possible without sacrificing long-term salary flexibility is exactly what we should be doing if we want that to change.

I like that point actually. LA and Knicks both struck out, which makes me happy. Also read into what Aldridge said about the LA being a turn off for him...pretty funny.

I agree that our biggest often is not in our players but in Stevens. If we tank, I'm afraid we'll lose him. We do have a great front office so hopefully Danny get him some more toys to play with

[TheTruthFot18]

If we have cap space again next year, who would we target? This years FA class was much better/ more realistic in coming to Boston.

Hortford and Drummond likely stay.
Durant isn't coming here.
Anthony Davis and Lilliard just got resigned.

Roy Hibbert, Noah, Joe Johnson, Big Al, Beal, Ross, MKG?

[dreamgreen]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

[danglertx]

We were 24-12 in our last 36 games, and we are a much better team now.
I really look forward to next season.

Sometimes I come off as the downer guy but people that know me and followed my thoughts and predictions know me as a realist. I like everyone on here wants the C's to be great.

I just don't see how anyone can say we are much better. Unless the young guys improve in leaps and bounds I see us as worse. Amir does not make us 1 game better IMO, at best that is a lateral move. So how did we get better?

Also I'm telling you IT will be driving people crazy with anger in the very near future, he's 5'9" gunner.

Do we have the only players in the world that don't improve?  Young players get better.  Our entire roster should be slighly to moderately better.  They should be bigger, faster, stronger shoot better, and just about everything else.   Just being in the same system around the same guys should grow improvement.

So Bass for Amir Johnson is a lateral move.  I hated Bass, so it isn't a lateral move to me but assuming it is, we should still be seeing improvement from all of our youngsters.  If we are the same team we were the second half of last season after all our moves, we should be pretty good.

[Kuberski33]

2)   Tank at this point? You may lose the Celtics biggest asset. I’m talking about Stevens. This is a point that some posters bring up on occasion, but doesn’t get enough attention. We’re 2 years into a 6-year contract for Brad Stevens. Judging from a handful of reports that have come out since he came to Boston, there are plenty of offers waiting for him in the college game. Can you realistically scrap the whole process and embrace a painful 1-3 years of horrible losing without him jumping ship? If he does, how easily can you replace him with another good young coach and rebuild the basketball culture that Stevens is putting in place? In the end, the only way from here is to move forward, not back.

It's speculation but I agree with this, just based on stuff I've heard Bill Simmons say.  He does have his contacts including one well placed one with the C's and he's said that Stevens up until the Thomas trade was not at all enjoying the losing.  Could definitely have seen him looking to bolt for a major college job or pulling a Doc and saying he doesn't want to be here - then going to a contender.  Hiring Stevens at the outset of the rebuild was a coup but it carries with it certain caveats like he won't buy into the long term tank for picks strategy - which I'm fine with.