Amir Johnson to Celtics

[MBunge]

People seem to be missing the point with the Amir signing.  If, as reported, the used the Rondo TPE for Amir, that means they still have all their regular cap space and the second year is unguaranteed.

They're paying him $12 million rather than paying Bass or someone else more than that over 3 or 4 years.  Ainge wanted a vet with maximum trade value and make no mistake, Amir will be traded or cut.  He'll never get that second year.

Mike

[YoungOne87]

this makes absolutely no sense...

he is too small to play center, doesnt rebound well is no shot blocker and no passer

what exactly does he give us that we need?

[crimson_stallion]

I think Noel, right now, is probably a more impactful defensive player than any the Celts have.

I would not be surprised if the same is true of Embiid once he starts playing.

I think Okafor, as soon as he starts playing, will be a more dangerous offensive player than any the Celts have right now, with the exception perhaps of Isaiah Thomas.

The parts in bold are the key factors here.

I agree with you that Embiid has more defensive impact than anybody on our roster.  But he is such an offensive liability that it's questionable whether he actually hurts the team more offensively than he helps them defensively.  There are some statistics out there that would suggest that this is, indeed, the case. 

I'd also argue that Thomas has just as much positive impact on offense as Noel does on defence.  On pure offensive statistics (basic and advanced) you could make a legit argument that Thomas is one of the top 5-10 offensive players in the entire NBA.  You could probably make the same argument for Noel on defence.  Thomas hurts his team just as much on defence as Noel does on offense.  Pretty hard to argue that Noel gas more overall impact on his team than Thomas does for Boston.

Bradley isn't as dominate defensively as Noel, but he's a two-way player who contributes a significant amount on both offense and on defence.  He's our second best defensive player after Smart, and he's also our #1 scorer.  Again, hard to argue Noel is better than him as an overall player.

Sully has defensive limitations, but does he hurt Boston as much defensively as Noel does offensively?  Again that's a pretty tough call - especially given Sully is a significantly better rebounder than Noel.

The fact that we have three impact players on our roster and Philly only has one instantly tells you which team has a better talent right now.  Especially considering none of those Celtics players are older than 25 (so some potential is still there for all three of them too).

Would you trade Bradley, Sully and Thomas for Noel?  I bet you wouldn't.  I definitely wouldn't.  Neither would Ainge. 

The second important part is that your comments about Embiid and Okafor are clearly all speculative.  "I wouldn't be surprised" and "I think".  Why? Because there is no possible way to know right now, hence the risk. No matter how confident you may  be in the ability of those guys, nothing is sure until they step on the court.

[crimson_stallion]

People seem to be missing the point with the Amir signing.  If, as reported, the used the Rondo TPE for Amir, that means they still have all their regular cap space and the second year is unguaranteed.

If that is true, then that changes everything...and this is a very nice move.

However is their any solid report on either of these points?
a) The second year being non-guaranteed
b) That they are using the TPE

None of the articles that I've seen have made a mention of either, and seem to suggest that Boston are signing him outright.

[wasi]

I actually like this signing, it had me a little nervous at first but now that we know the second year isn't guaranteed this is genius. Given what Shumpert just got paid it would have looked pretty good fully guaranteed anyway.

Firstly, he is a quality player and an upgrade at either the PF or C position. No we aren't contenders now but with these young guys you know some of them can make the leap and surprise us and we have too many solid players to tank regardless.

Secondly, he can very easily be traded since he can be off the books at the end of the year. I guarantee he'll be paid the second year though because it will be a bargain after the cap rises and I think he'll thrive in the Celtics system.

[tazzmaniac]

I think Noel, right now, is probably a more impactful defensive player than any the Celts have.

I would not be surprised if the same is true of Embiid once he starts playing.

I think Okafor, as soon as he starts playing, will be a more dangerous offensive player than any the Celts have right now, with the exception perhaps of Isaiah Thomas.

The parts in bold are the key factors here.

I agree with you that Embiid has more defensive impact than anybody on our roster.  But he is such an offensive liability that it's questionable whether he actually hurts the team more offensively than he helps them defensively.  There are some statistics out there that would suggest that this is, indeed, the case. 

I'd also argue that Thomas has just as much positive impact on offense as Noel does on defence.  On pure offensive statistics (basic and advanced) you could make a legit argument that Thomas is one of the top 5-10 offensive players in the entire NBA.  You could probably make the same argument for Noel on defence.  Thomas hurts his team just as much on defence as Noel does on offense.  Pretty hard to argue that Noel gas more overall impact on his team than Thomas does for Boston.

Bradley isn't as dominate defensively as Noel, but he's a two-way player who contributes a significant amount on both offense and on defence.  He's our second best defensive player after Smart, and he's also our #1 scorer.  Again, hard to argue Noel is better than him as an overall player.

Sully has defensive limitations, but does he hurt Boston as much defensively as Noel does offensively?  Again that's a pretty tough call - especially given Sully is a significantly better rebounder than Noel.

The fact that we have three impact players on our roster and Philly only has one instantly tells you which team has a better talent right now.  Especially considering none of those Celtics players are older than 25 (so some potential is still there for all three of them too).

Would you trade Bradley, Sully and Thomas for Noel?  I bet you wouldn't.  I definitely wouldn't.  Neither would Ainge. 

The second important part is that your comments about Embiid and Okafor are clearly all speculative.  "I wouldn't be surprised" and "I think".  Why? Because there is no possible way to know right now, hence the risk. No matter how confident you may  be in the ability of those guys, nothing is sure until they step on the court.

I would definitely trade Bradley, Sully and Thomas for Noel.  However I'm pretty certain that Philly wouldn't make that deal. 

[merkins]

Poor Amir Johnson.....with that contract non-guaranteed next year he's going to be traded before he knows what happened.

Ainge is loading up on tradeable contracts to package with the stockpile of picks.

Amir Johnson may be a lot of things but poor isn't one of them, Danny saw to that.  He was a 5 mil player and is 2 seasons removed from his best year.  This is a great deal for him, he got at least 50% over his probable value and will likely be a FA when the cap pops next year.

[MBunge]

People seem to be missing the point with the Amir signing.  If, as reported, the used the Rondo TPE for Amir, that means they still have all their regular cap space and the second year is unguaranteed.

If that is true, then that changes everything...and this is a very nice move.

However is their any solid report on either of these points?
a) The second year being non-guaranteed
b) That they are using the TPE

None of the articles that I've seen have made a mention of either, and seem to suggest that Boston are signing him outright.

If they did not use the TPE and the second year is guaranteed, this would be the dumbest thing Ainge has ever done.

Mike

[gpap]

This is a giant "We don't believe in you" aimed at Sully.

Maybe this contract works if Amir is the first big off the bench and plays a lot at both forward spots

I think the signing is intended for Amir to be the starting PF by paying him 12 mil.

Doesn't make sense to pay 12 mil for a back-up

Also, if that's the case with Sully and the Celts have lost faith in him then I don't blame them.

Time to move on from Sully or just have him come off the bench.

[PhoSita]

A TPE is a get out of jail free card if you are over the cap and make a trade that would otherwise fail due to financial trade rules.

You cannot use a TPE if you have cap space because you do not have to match salaries if you are under the cap.

A TPE has a cap hold, in any case, so you cannot have cap space without renouncing it.

Therefore, guys -- either they signed Amir using cap space or, more likely, they never created cap space by renouncing all their holds and chose to sign him using the TPE.


Bottom line: They can't have signed Amir without somehow using up cap space, unless they traded contracts to Toronto.  Which is very unlikely.

[crimson_stallion]

I would definitely trade Bradley, Sully and Thomas for Noel.  However I'm pretty certain that Philly wouldn't make that deal.

I would hazard a guess that you would be in a very small minority,

Isaiah Thomas on his own is AT LEAST as good a player as Noel.  You could make the same argument for Bradley pretty easily.  Sully 'arguably' could have the same argument made, but that's a bit more of a stretch (as he's neither dominant on one side of the floor, or really a two-way player, however is far more skilled than Noel).

Trading three guys for a single guy who gives you similar production to each of those guys - not a great move.

Noel's defence is really his only elite talent.  He is a good (but not great) rebounder and is a well below average offensive player.

His stats and skill set point to him becoming anywhere from Brendan Haywood / JaVale McGee (at worst) to Tyson Chandler (at best).  Highly unlikely that he will ever become significantly better than Chandler given his skill set.

[gpap]

Anyone else p---ed off about this signing?

I'm at least ... perplexed.

Signing Amir to such a huge deal signals that the team does not expect to be much of a player in the free agent market.  Not a great surprise.

But it means that despite not being a major player, the team is willing to spend money on stop-gap options that will keep the team closer to the middle.

Settling for mediocrity does not make me happy at all.  Go big or jettison the extras and let the young guys play.

Instead we're spending $12 million per year to replace Bass with a slightly taller guy who is worse offensively and slightly better defensively.

You're right about Bass. Why not just keep him for cheaper.

The only thing that makes any sense is we just found out Harris was a no and same with Monroe, leaving Ainge with some blow money.

Because Amir is ALOT better than Bass and who cares about the money. Bass is undersized and we've seen enough of him.

[Evantime34]

I'm pretty sure they did not use the TPE for the signing because a contract needs to be 3 years for a TPE to be used. Steve Bulpett wrote that the last year of both Jerebko and Johnson's deals are not guaranteed.

Honestly, I'm not a fan of these signings, in a bubble. However, this is the first day of free agency and if Sam Amick's story on the salary cap being $ 2 MM higher than anticipated is correct we could have $14 MM in cap space after stretching Wallace. We also have a lot of players and not a ton of roster balance.

In other words the roster is still in flux. I'm going to wait to rule on these moves until I see what the offseason has in store for us. If we use the rest of our space to sign a guy like Tobias Harris then this was a great offseason. If we are just signing those two then I will be upset.

[gpap]

Not a big fan of this move....over pay for youth not 28 year olds....hope this doesn't hurt our chances at Harris.

On a side note Warriors talks with D.Green just broke down and now he is talking to other teams.

Because apparently you're now a senior citizen at 28 yrs old

[cb8883]

Not a big fan of this move....over pay for youth not 28 year olds....hope this doesn't hurt our chances at Harris.

On a side note Warriors talks with D.Green just broke down and now he is talking to other teams.

Because apparently you're now a senior citizen at 28 yrs old

28 is very old in the NBA. Duration is fine for a role player on a contender but they just wasted 12 million a year because everyone else turned them down. Franchise is very sad right now. Could have not done that half hearted tank 2 years ago.