Chris Sheridan: C's could trade for #4 pick (speculation)

[LarBrd33]

This is my tribute to our dear member Larbrd33 :

Brad Stevens



Sam Hinkie


I just thought I'll kid him a little. Love you man 

Not even close.

Brad Stevens:



Hinkie is the kind of guy that would play a round of Russian Roulette if there was a million dollars on the table. 

[littleteapot]

They should just trade #4 to the Lakers for Randle and Clarkson.  Randle is expendable seeing as LA is signing Kevin Love.   Lakers can start building around Mudiay, Love and Okafor.

No way Phil trades one elite prospect for two middling prospects. 

AB, Kelly, 16, 28, 33 trumps that offer easily.  Especially considering fit within triangle alongside Carmelo.

A lot of folks had Randle ranked ahead of Marcus Smart last year.  I was one of them.    How confident are you that Mudiay/Pozingus/Winslow/Mario/WCS are better than Marcus Smart/Julius Randle?  I'm not all that confident.  WE're right in the thick of draftoverhypeitus. 

And if you're that high on this draft, how comfortable are you trading a "middling prospect" like Marcus Smart in a trade package for #4?

A - you don't get the benefit of hindsight when you make picks so it's kind of irrelevant that most prospects disappoint - teams have to make bets on elite prospects before you know if they will actually become elite players.

B - saying a pick is "worthless" because it could easily bust makes no sense. Even if the player you take never pans out, it is still worth something. James Young may never pan out, but we could trade him right now and get a return.

[LarBrd33]

after the dust clears on the draft posturing and misinformation, it seems pretty clear that the top 2 will be Towns and Okafor... otherwise Minny and LA are smoking crack.

After that, it's pretty clear that the 76ers will take Russell... they need a versatile scorer and he has the biggest boom/bust potential of any player in the top 25 ... That's Hinkie gold.   I'm pretty sure the Embiid stuff is exaggerated.  Russell will likely be their pick. 

Then I think it's pretty much a crap shoot... and although we're all getting draftoverhypeitus, I don't really think the lack of consensus is because of how deep the draft is... I just think it's a lot of hit/miss guys.   Mudiay maybe has the best chance of turning into something, but he's a bad fit for the triangle and could be a major bust.   Pozingus is getting a lot of press lately, but so did Yi Jianlian.   I'm on record as being underwhelmed by Willie Cauley Stein.  He should be a nice rim protector, but I'm not convinced he's any better than Bismack Biyombo.    There's some guys like Winslow that some people like, but some drafts have him going as low as 8th.    I wouldn't blame the Knicks for trading down or out entirely.   I"m not as hyped on this draft as most people are.   And I kinda see our #16 and #28 picks as borderline worthless.  Danny is going to want up or out.   Actually, there's some logic in him trading down too.   Don't rule that out.   I'll be surprised if he stands pat, though.

lol

Gonna need a lot of luck.  Of the players taken 11-20 last year, a couple have shown some signs, right?  How about the guys taken 22-30?

MIght get a couple role players out of those picks.   Might be a couple Fab Melos.  Whatever... half the league has a better draft pick than we do this year. 

And yeah... WCS is poor man's Biyombo

Well obviously the picks aren't worthless. And the Biyombo comparison is asinine.

Eh... Hawks just had the best record in the East.  Thunder are a perennial contender.  They both have better draft picks than us this year.... as does half the league.  #16 and #28 aren't worth all that much.   They are worth something, sure...  People luck out with picks in that range (like Nurkic last year), but it's more likely to net a nobody or role player.   I'd be surprised to see us keep both picks.

And the Biyombo comparison is on point.

Your MO is so simplistic. If WCS were on the Sixers, then he'd be another foundation piece. As has been pointed out in other places Cauley-Stein and Noel are virtually identical as players. Limited offensively with great defense. Yet you won't put Noel in his class because it doesn't fit your Sixers cheerleading prerogative.

Even their measurements are comparable, but WCS has the slight edge.

HT
WCS 7' 0.5"
Noel 6' 11.75"

WT
WCS 242
Noel 206

Wingspan
WCS 7' 3"
Noel 7' 3.75"

Standing Reach
WCS 9' 3"
Noel 9' 2"

Age
WCS 21 (4 months younger than Noel)
Noel 21

That's completely asinine.  I was big on Noel well before he landed on the 76ers.    The fact that I still like him on speaks more to my interest in big man prospects who have transcendent defensive potential than it does about my "love" for the 76ers.    I would have gladly traded up for Embiid last season... the fact that he ended up on the 76ers has jack squat to do with my interest in him.  He was widely seen as the best prospect in the draft and some felt he should have gone 1st in spite of his injury.   The fact that DeAngelo Russell is probably the best guard in this draft and he just so happens to be ending up on the 76ers doesn't mean I'll like him just because he's on the 76ers.  If he ends up on the Knicks, he's still a quality asset.     I'm not high on Pozingus... I'm not going to be high on him if the 76ers take him.   

And as for WCS and NOel... they played together as Freshman.  NOel was a better defender back then.   Noel made strides in his rookie season... three years into WCS's college career and he showed very minimal improvement.   It seems asinine to claim that WCS is better when he wasn't three years ago.  I see more Biyombo in WCS than Noel.   That's not to say I'm dismissing WCS.  I think he'll be a solid rim protector.  So is biyombo.  I'd be very happy with either on the Celtics.   It'd be harder to get WCS than Biyombo, so I'd rather just sign Biyombo and use our assets for something else.

[Forza Juventus]

after the dust clears on the draft posturing and misinformation, it seems pretty clear that the top 2 will be Towns and Okafor... otherwise Minny and LA are smoking crack.

After that, it's pretty clear that the 76ers will take Russell... they need a versatile scorer and he has the biggest boom/bust potential of any player in the top 25 ... That's Hinkie gold.   I'm pretty sure the Embiid stuff is exaggerated.  Russell will likely be their pick. 

Then I think it's pretty much a crap shoot... and although we're all getting draftoverhypeitus, I don't really think the lack of consensus is because of how deep the draft is... I just think it's a lot of hit/miss guys.   Mudiay maybe has the best chance of turning into something, but he's a bad fit for the triangle and could be a major bust.   Pozingus is getting a lot of press lately, but so did Yi Jianlian.   I'm on record as being underwhelmed by Willie Cauley Stein.  He should be a nice rim protector, but I'm not convinced he's any better than Bismack Biyombo.    There's some guys like Winslow that some people like, but some drafts have him going as low as 8th.    I wouldn't blame the Knicks for trading down or out entirely.   I"m not as hyped on this draft as most people are.   And I kinda see our #16 and #28 picks as borderline worthless.  Danny is going to want up or out.   Actually, there's some logic in him trading down too.   Don't rule that out.   I'll be surprised if he stands pat, though.

lol

Gonna need a lot of luck.  Of the players taken 11-20 last year, a couple have shown some signs, right?  How about the guys taken 22-30?

MIght get a couple role players out of those picks.   Might be a couple Fab Melos.  Whatever... half the league has a better draft pick than we do this year. 

And yeah... WCS is poor man's Biyombo

Well obviously the picks aren't worthless. And the Biyombo comparison is asinine.

Eh... Hawks just had the best record in the East.  Thunder are a perennial contender.  They both have better draft picks than us this year.... as does half the league.  #16 and #28 aren't worth all that much.   They are worth something, sure...  People luck out with picks in that range (like Nurkic last year), but it's more likely to net a nobody or role player.   I'd be surprised to see us keep both picks.

And the Biyombo comparison is on point.

Your MO is so simplistic. If WCS were on the Sixers, then he'd be another foundation piece. As has been pointed out in other places Cauley-Stein and Noel are virtually identical as players. Limited offensively with great defense. Yet you won't put Noel in his class because it doesn't fit your Sixers cheerleading prerogative.

Even their measurements are comparable, but WCS has the slight edge.

HT
WCS 7' 0.5"
Noel 6' 11.75"

WT
WCS 242
Noel 206

Wingspan
WCS 7' 3"
Noel 7' 3.75"

Standing Reach
WCS 9' 3"
Noel 9' 2"

Age
WCS 21 (4 months younger than Noel)
Noel 21

That's completely asinine.  I was big on Noel well before he landed on the 76ers.    The fact that I still like him on speaks more to my interest in big man prospects who have transcendent defensive potential than it does about my "love" for the 76ers.    I would have gladly traded up for Embiid last season... the fact that he ended up on the 76ers has jack squat to do with my interest in him.  He was widely seen as the best prospect in the draft and some felt he should have gone 1st in spite of his injury.   The fact that DeAngelo Russell is probably the best guard in this draft and he just so happens to be ending up on the 76ers doesn't mean I'll like him just because he's on the 76ers.  If he ends up on the Knicks, he's still a quality asset.     I'm not high on Pozingus... I'm not going to be high on him if the 76ers take him.   

And as for WCS and NOel... they played together as Freshman.  NOel was a better defender back then.   Noel made strides in his rookie season... three years into WCS's college career and he showed very minimal improvement.   It seems asinine to claim that WCS is better when he wasn't three years ago.  I see more Biyombo in WCS than Noel.

I like Noel more than WCS. But that Biyombo comparison.... omg it's like you haven't watched WCS play once.

[KG Living Legend]

Both sides a little carried away here. Not ready to Call Willie a Defensive Einstein, but he's not Bigmack Biyombo yeah I called him Bigmack.
 Seriously though Willie is a lot more quick laterally and much more athletic than Tyson Chandler ever was. He's going to be an awesome Defensive force, question is can you live with a guy that may not score hardly at all that high. He's so fast and jumps so well if he didn't avg 10 ppg than he's not dedicated to the game. He should get 5 buckets a night in transition.

[Forza Juventus]

Both sides a little carried away her. Not ready to Call Willie a Defensive Einstein, but he's not Bigmack Biyombo yeah I called him Bigmack.
 Seriously though Willie is a lot more quick laterally and much more athletic than Tyson Chandler ever was. He's going to be an awesome Defensive force, question is can you live with a guy that may not score hardly at all that high.

WCS is the type of player we have needed for several years. And he can cover wings and bigs which is a huge luxury.

[littleteapot]

Both sides a little carried away her. Not ready to Call Willie a Defensive Einstein, but he's not Bigmack Biyombo yeah I called him Bigmack.
 Seriously though Willie is a lot more quick laterally and much more athletic than Tyson Chandler ever was. He's going to be an awesome Defensive force, question is can you live with a guy that may not score hardly at all that high.

My comp for him is a cross between Bill Russel and Kwame Brown. He shares Russel's vague positive qualities that I'll take credit for if he's good in 3 years and Kwame's vague negative qualities that I'll take credit for if he sucks in 3 years.

[LarBrd33]

They should just trade #4 to the Lakers for Randle and Clarkson.  Randle is expendable seeing as LA is signing Kevin Love.   Lakers can start building around Mudiay, Love and Okafor.

No way Phil trades one elite prospect for two middling prospects. 

AB, Kelly, 16, 28, 33 trumps that offer easily.  Especially considering fit within triangle alongside Carmelo.

A lot of folks had Randle ranked ahead of Marcus Smart last year.  I was one of them.    How confident are you that Mudiay/Pozingus/Winslow/Mario/WCS are better than Marcus Smart/Julius Randle?  I'm not all that confident.  WE're right in the thick of draftoverhypeitus. 

And if you're that high on this draft, how comfortable are you trading a "middling prospect" like Marcus Smart in a trade package for #4?

A - you don't get the benefit of hindsight when you make picks so it's kind of irrelevant that most prospects disappoint - teams have to make bets on elite prospects before you know if they will actually become elite players.

B - saying a pick is "worthless" because it could easily bust makes no sense. Even if the player you take never pans out, it is still worth something. James Young may never pan out, but we could trade him right now and get a return.

How much return can we get for James Young? 

Adriene Payne was taken two slots earlier and was traded for a Minny pick that is lotto protected until 2020... and then it turns into two second rounders.  So a guy taken #15 is worth, at best, a #15 pick... at worst, two second rounders

Tyler Ennis was taken a pick after Young and included as a throw-in in a Bucks trade.

Sure, Young has a tiny bit of trade value.   Sure, #16 has a tiny bit of trade value.   No more trade value than the picks that more than half the league owns in this draft.

[KG Living Legend]

I know Forza that's what I'm saying, the most versatile 7 foot defender you could ever dream up. He's like a weird science defender you put each talent together. To bad they didn't have enough in the budget for his offensive game.

[Eddie20]

after the dust clears on the draft posturing and misinformation, it seems pretty clear that the top 2 will be Towns and Okafor... otherwise Minny and LA are smoking crack.

After that, it's pretty clear that the 76ers will take Russell... they need a versatile scorer and he has the biggest boom/bust potential of any player in the top 25 ... That's Hinkie gold.   I'm pretty sure the Embiid stuff is exaggerated.  Russell will likely be their pick. 

Then I think it's pretty much a crap shoot... and although we're all getting draftoverhypeitus, I don't really think the lack of consensus is because of how deep the draft is... I just think it's a lot of hit/miss guys.   Mudiay maybe has the best chance of turning into something, but he's a bad fit for the triangle and could be a major bust.   Pozingus is getting a lot of press lately, but so did Yi Jianlian.   I'm on record as being underwhelmed by Willie Cauley Stein.  He should be a nice rim protector, but I'm not convinced he's any better than Bismack Biyombo.    There's some guys like Winslow that some people like, but some drafts have him going as low as 8th.    I wouldn't blame the Knicks for trading down or out entirely.   I"m not as hyped on this draft as most people are.   And I kinda see our #16 and #28 picks as borderline worthless.  Danny is going to want up or out.   Actually, there's some logic in him trading down too.   Don't rule that out.   I'll be surprised if he stands pat, though.

lol

Gonna need a lot of luck.  Of the players taken 11-20 last year, a couple have shown some signs, right?  How about the guys taken 22-30?

MIght get a couple role players out of those picks.   Might be a couple Fab Melos.  Whatever... half the league has a better draft pick than we do this year. 

And yeah... WCS is poor man's Biyombo

Well obviously the picks aren't worthless. And the Biyombo comparison is asinine.

Eh... Hawks just had the best record in the East.  Thunder are a perennial contender.  They both have better draft picks than us this year.... as does half the league.  #16 and #28 aren't worth all that much.   They are worth something, sure...  People luck out with picks in that range (like Nurkic last year), but it's more likely to net a nobody or role player.   I'd be surprised to see us keep both picks.

And the Biyombo comparison is on point.

Your MO is so simplistic. If WCS were on the Sixers, then he'd be another foundation piece. As has been pointed out in other places Cauley-Stein and Noel are virtually identical as players. Limited offensively with great defense. Yet you won't put Noel in his class because it doesn't fit your Sixers cheerleading prerogative.

Even their measurements are comparable, but WCS has the slight edge.

HT
WCS 7' 0.5"
Noel 6' 11.75"

WT
WCS 242
Noel 206

Wingspan
WCS 7' 3"
Noel 7' 3.75"

Standing Reach
WCS 9' 3"
Noel 9' 2"

Age
WCS 21 (4 months younger than Noel)
Noel 21

That's completely asinine.  I was big on Noel well before he landed on the 76ers.    The fact that I still like him on speaks more to my interest in big man prospects who have transcendent defensive potential than it does about my "love" for the 76ers.    I would have gladly traded up for Embiid last season... the fact that he ended up on the 76ers has jack squat to do with my interest in him.  He was widely seen as the best prospect in the draft and some felt he should have gone 1st in spite of his injury.   The fact that DeAngelo Russell is probably the best guard in this draft and he just so happens to be ending up on the 76ers doesn't mean I'll like him just because he's on the 76ers.  If he ends up on the Knicks, he's still a quality asset.     I'm not high on Pozingus... I'm not going to be high on him if the 76ers take him.   

And as for WCS and NOel... they played together as Freshman.  NOel was a better defender back then.   Noel made strides in his rookie season... three years into WCS's college career and he showed very minimal improvement.   It seems asinine to claim that WCS is better when he wasn't three years ago.  I see more Biyombo in WCS than Noel.   That's not to say I'm dismissing WCS.  I think he'll be a solid rim protector.  So is biyombo.  I'd be very happy with either on the Celtics.   It'd be harder to get WCS than Biyombo, so I'd rather just sign Biyombo and use our assets for something else.

Noel was the #1 prospect in a weak class and still went #6. If he had been completely healthy he would've gone around the Smart range the following year.  You also keep saying that WCS has shown minimal improvement. Do you realize what you're saying?

Also, this is Bill Simmons' 2015 trade value done with Jalen Rose. While yes, it's Simmons, but I use it to provide another opinion on Noel's value. You'll notice he doesn't have him ranked at all in his top 60, so clearly he feels he's less valuable than than the bounty you think he's worth.

http://grantland.com/features/2015-nba-trade-value-part-1/

http://grantland.com/features/2015-nba-trade-value-part-2-the-temple-of-doom/

http://grantland.com/features/2015-nba-trade-value-part-3-the-final-countdown/

[Forza Juventus]

I know Forza that's what I'm saying, the most versatile 7 foot defender you could ever dream up. He's like a weird science defender you put each talent together. To bad they didn't have enough in the budget for his offensive game.

lol just imagine

[LarBrd33]

Both sides a little carried away her. Not ready to Call Willie a Defensive Einstein, but he's not Bigmack Biyombo yeah I called him Bigmack.
 Seriously though Willie is a lot more quick laterally and much more athletic than Tyson Chandler ever was. He's going to be an awesome Defensive force, question is can you live with a guy that may not score hardly at all that high.

My comp for him is a cross between Bill Russel and Kwame Brown. He shares Russel's vague positive qualities that I'll take credit for if he's good in 3 years and Kwame's vague negative qualities that I'll take credit for if he sucks in 3 years.

TP

Biyombo averaged 27 minutes in 21 games as a starter this season and averaged 7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks on 55% shooting and 63% from the line.   He posted the best defensive rating on his team and the Hornets had arguably their best stretch of the entire season with Biyombo and MKG receiving heavy minutes in January (winning 8 of 9). 

Seeing as those stats are extremely similar to Willie Cauley Stein's third year college stats (9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 57% shooting/62% from the line) and it's pretty widely acknowledged that the NBA level is higher than the College level, I tend to think that at best, WCS would put up comparable numbers in a starting role... if he even gets it.  I'm not so sure why everyone is so convinced all these draftees are guaranteed starters.  Exum, Gordon, Smart and Randle were expected to be can't miss starters and all of them were pretty darn underwhelming in year one.  WCS = Biyombo.

[mmmmm]

I would draft Porzingis and then sign Greg Monroe.  Porzingis gives you the stretch four and rim protection that would be the perfect balance for Monroe's low post game. Once Sully/KO and Zeller are coming off the bench as role players, then we really start to compete.

I like that combination a lot as well.  Porzingis and Monroe would be an extremely complementary pair on both ends of the floor.   It implies that one would be giving up one or two of our bigs in the trade, of course.

Alternatively, if you've spent any time watching vids of Mudiay, you'd know that he is a great transition guard who loves to reward rim-running bigs --- of which, Greg Monroe is one of the best.  Those two would make a pretty nice pair as well.  He'd be the choice if the trade moved someone from our back-court.

If I were to guess at who Danny might be targeting, it would probably be Porzingis, though.  He scouted him a lot last year and he makes a lot of sense.

We aren't likely to get this trade with just our picks.  Jackson will want one or two of our young players.  And we'd probably have to eat Calderon's salary.

[littleteapot]

How much return can we get for James Young? 

Adriene Payne was taken two slots earlier and was traded for a Minny pick that is lotto protected until 2020... and then it turns into two second rounders.  So a guy taken #15 is worth, at best, a #15 pick... at worst, two second rounders

Tyler Ennis was taken a pick after Young and included as a throw-in in a Bucks trade.

Sure, Young has a tiny bit of trade value.   Sure, #16 has a tiny bit of trade value.   No more trade value than the picks that more than half the league owns in this draft.

Teams (like ours) that understand the concept of not selling at the lowest possible point wouldn't make a trade like the Payne one.

[KG Living Legend]

Larbrd, its mostly the NBA pick and roll game that's going to help his cause in the draft. A lot better laterally than Bigmack