Poll: Over Under 47 Wins

[Celtics18]

I never bought the "catching teams off guard" theory.  The Celtics played in a lot of good games against other teams playing hard (we just happened to play a little bit harder; it's our m.o.) on most nights.

I honestly believe that the main proponents of the "opposition taking us lightly" theory had probably already tuned out and weren't really paying close attention to the Celtics anymore.

Of course, simply being wrong about the capabilities of their basketball team wasn't an option.  So the theory about the other guys not playing hard was concocted as a convenient explanation that didn't mean having to admit to being wrong about the team sucking.

[LarBrd33]

Since I don't see fireworks on the horizon, I'm saying under.

Agreed.

It's very early right now, a lot of variables for this summer, but I'd ballpark next year at 30-45 wins.  My expectation skews toward the lower half of that range, but I wouldn't blame somebody for leaning toward the higher end.

as-is i don't think this roster would get back to the playoffs next year.  They overachieved and caught teams off guard.

Man... who knew the signing of Amir Johnson would make such a difference.  As-is in June, the team didn't look like it would be able to make the playoffs... but then a month later we sign Amir Johnson and all bets were off.   12 mil well spent, if you ask me.

[Celtics18]

Since I don't see fireworks on the horizon, I'm saying under.

Agreed.

It's very early right now, a lot of variables for this summer, but I'd ballpark next year at 30-45 wins.  My expectation skews toward the lower half of that range, but I wouldn't blame somebody for leaning toward the higher end.

as-is i don't think this roster would get back to the playoffs next year.  They overachieved and caught teams off guard.

Man... who knew the signing of Amir Johnson would make such a difference.  As-is in June, the team didn't look like it would be able to make the playoffs... but then a month later we sign Amir Johnson and all bets were off.   12 mil well spent, if you ask me.

Brilliant!!!

[LarBrd33]

Hmm, I'm not sure how I missed your quote and saw the other two. Obviously a 30-45 win prediction doesn't fit in with the other quotes of us lucking into the playoffs last year and being a 25-win team tops this year. Those two are clearly LarBrd33-esque posts, while your post was five wins better at the lowest prediction.

Correct.  The quotes about 25 win team "tops" and "caught teams off guard" were LarBrd33 quotes, I think.

I definitely argued for tempering enthusiasm about the run at the end of last season, in part because of that "catching teams off guard" idea.  I thought once the league had a chance to get used to how the Celts were playing, scout them more, that sort of thing, they'd find ways to exploit the Celts weaknesses, and the Celts would struggle to maintain that kind of pace.

And again, to reiterate, I was wrong about that.  Wrong.  They've been even better this year.

I don't think it was unreasonable to be skeptical about it, though.  We were talking about two months or so of games, at a time of the season when it's widely agreed many teams are no longer really trying.  But as KG Living Legend has pointed out, our sample size is now more than a full season worth of games. 

This is team is high 40's / low 50's caliber.  I don't know what that means for their playoff prospects, and I'm still trying to wrap my head around how they manage it with their personnel, but that's what they are.

In defense of LarBrd33, he never said the team would win 25 games.  He said that on paper last year's roster was a 25 win team that Brad Stevens got to overachieve by winning 40.   His full quotes:

Overall point... on paper, this is a 25 win team.   Ainge took a literal 25 win team (from 2013-14) and got rid of a couple of the best players...   Yes, he landed Thomas for a late 1st (likely seeing Thomas as a more tradeable chip down the line than the late pick), but this very much was a team designed to bottom out.   On paper... 25 wins.  As many Sports analysts mentioned, there might not be a single player on the Celtics that would start for a top-tier team.  Certainly not for Golden State.  Our best player would be, at best, the 8th best guy on the Warriors.  It's a credit to Brad Stevens and his otherwordly coaching magic that we won 40.   It's proof that "on paper" doesn't always translate to reality.    So the question is whether or not Stevens can once again get this team of 25 win talent to 40 again.  I doubt it.  47?  No way.   Of course, none of this matters if Ainge hits a few home runs this summer and gets some real talent here.   

A lot has changed since then.  Thomas made the all-star team.  Jae Crowder has been sensational.  Avery Bradley also looks like a real starter-caliber player.   I doubt many analysts would still make the claim that Boston doesn't have a single starter on their roster.  The young guys have improved. 

And of course, Ainge hit a home run by signing Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year... suddenly this went from a team that looked unlikely to make the playoffs again to a team that looked pretty solid.   By the preseason, even LarBrd33 was on board with the 45 win prediction:

LarBrd33's quote from October: 

I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

[LarBrd33]

Since I don't see fireworks on the horizon, I'm saying under.

Agreed.

It's very early right now, a lot of variables for this summer, but I'd ballpark next year at 30-45 wins.  My expectation skews toward the lower half of that range, but I wouldn't blame somebody for leaning toward the higher end.

as-is i don't think this roster would get back to the playoffs next year.  They overachieved and caught teams off guard.

Man... who knew the signing of Amir Johnson would make such a difference.  As-is in June, the team didn't look like it would be able to make the playoffs... but then a month later we sign Amir Johnson and all bets were off.   12 mil well spent, if you ask me.

Brilliant!!!

Completely true, though.  The team lacked interior defenders.  This thread was before we added Amir.   Amir is literally the highest paid player on this team by a whopping 5.3 million dollars.  It certainly wasn't an insignificant signing.  Just by going by pay this year, one could come to the conclusion that Amir Johnson is our most valuable player... if value is equated by how much money is spent on a player.  We're paying Amir about the same as Thomas, Smart and Sully combined.

How can someone's predictions pre-Amir be taken seriously?  It's not the same roster.  These guesses were made before we filled our most glaring need by opening up our pockets for our highest paid player.   Ainge needed to a hit a home run and it appears he did.  Amir has the highest offensive rating of any starter on the team and he's tied for 2nd highest defensive rating.  And that's why we spent 12 mil on Amir Johnson instead of 2 million on Bismack Biyombo.  12 million well spent.

[CelticPride2016]

And of course, Ainge hit a home run by signing Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year... suddenly this went from a team that looked unlikely to make the playoffs again to a team that looked pretty solid.   By the preseason, even LarBrd33 was on board with the 45 win prediction:

LarBrd33's quote from October: 

I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

It's bizarre that this person distorts what he previously wrote. I tracked down his comment. He appears to put in sarcastic comments and then return later to take them out of context.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=80942.15

All this media love feels like an over-correction for people who undervalue advanced metrics.  OoOO Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it, I'm just saying that on old school paper, this team is garbage.  Our best player just spent the playoffs averaging 9 minutes off the bench with 9 coach decision DNP's.   It's nice that we're living in a new world where Brandon Wright is legitimate trade chip, but convention wisdom says this Boston team is a bottomfeeder.  Here's hoping conventional wisdom is dead wrong.  I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

Other quotes:

I'll surprised if the Brooklyn pick ends up in the top 10.  Sure hope so, tho.

I dunno, man.  The "Brooklyn Sucks" narrative seems contingent on the idea that Brook Lopez will inevitable re-injury himself.   What if he doesn't?   

And here are some quotes from his friend Pho Sita:

The pre-season buzz is a bit hyperbolic for the Celts.  I think they'll be a middle of the road team, but placing them ahead of the Wizards and putting them right there in contention with the Raps for the Atlantic Division seems premature.

Deep though they may be, the Celtics still lack top end talent, so I expect them to have their ups and down and finish close to .500.

I sure hope they're right about the Nets.  I still think not having any reason to tank makes a difference, especially in the East.  Hard to get a bottom 5 record when you have no reason not to try to win as many games as possible.  It's not like they have any younger players that need to see the floor.  The vets in Brooklyn will get all the floor time they could ever want and then plenty more.

Pho Sita asks who I am and where have I been in the conversation. I tend to not read people who are consistently wrong and excessively wordy. If you two are moderators, I'll leave the board. Otherwise, there are a lot of people who like the Celtics but not so much people who get so much wrong.

I like to write a bit, but the difference is I don't expect anyone to read it. If people do, then I thank them for taking the time. I try not to write just anything.

[LarBrd33]

And of course, Ainge hit a home run by signing Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year... suddenly this went from a team that looked unlikely to make the playoffs again to a team that looked pretty solid.   By the preseason, even LarBrd33 was on board with the 45 win prediction:

LarBrd33's quote from October: 

I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

It's bizarre that this person distorts what he previously wrote. I tracked down his comment. He appears to put in sarcastic comments and then return later to take them out of context.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=80942.15

All this media love feels like an over-correction for people who undervalue advanced metrics.  OoOO Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it, I'm just saying that on old school paper, this team is garbage.  Our best player just spent the playoffs averaging 9 minutes off the bench with 9 coach decision DNP's.   It's nice that we're living in a new world where Brandon Wright is legitimate trade chip, but convention wisdom says this Boston team is a bottomfeeder.  Here's hoping conventional wisdom is dead wrong.  I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

Other quotes:

I'll surprised if the Brooklyn pick ends up in the top 10.  Sure hope so, tho.

I dunno, man.  The "Brooklyn Sucks" narrative seems contingent on the idea that Brook Lopez will inevitable re-injury himself.   What if he doesn't?   

And here are some quotes from his friend Pho Sita:

The pre-season buzz is a bit hyperbolic for the Celts.  I think they'll be a middle of the road team, but placing them ahead of the Wizards and putting them right there in contention with the Raps for the Atlantic Division seems premature.

Deep though they may be, the Celtics still lack top end talent, so I expect them to have their ups and down and finish close to .500.

I sure hope they're right about the Nets.  I still think not having any reason to tank makes a difference, especially in the East.  Hard to get a bottom 5 record when you have no reason not to try to win as many games as possible.  It's not like they have any younger players that need to see the floor.  The vets in Brooklyn will get all the floor time they could ever want and then plenty more.

Pho Sita asks who I am and where have I been in the conversation. I tend to not read people who are consistently wrong and excessively wordy. If you two are moderators, I'll leave the board. Otherwise, there are a lot of people who like the Celtics but not so much people who get so much wrong.

I like to write a bit, but the difference is I don't expect anyone to read it. If people do, then I thank them for taking the time. I try not to write just anything.

CelticPride, everything you quoted from me is pretty consistent with what I'm saying.  There's nothing bizarre about it.

It was a conversation about the projections for the Nets.  I was skeptical they'd be terrible, but a lot of that was contingent on whether or not they stayed healthy.  They didn't.  Old news.  We benefited from it.

But it also backs up what I was saying back in June of this year... which is that on paper this team was garbage... Ainge had set this team up to basically bottom out last year and it semi backfired on him... quote suggest her preferred getting a top 10 pick over making the playoffs, but Brad got the team to win in spite of his efforts.  According to experts, we didn't have a single starter caliber player.  That roster, on paper, was a 25 win bottomfeeder, but it managed to win 40 games and sneak into the playoffs.  As of June of 2015, it still looked like a bottomfeeder on paper... but we already knew that Brad Stevens was capable of getting a bottomfeeder to overachieve.  What was questionable was #1 - whether Brad could work his magic again and #2 - if the roster would stay the same. 

Well we now know for certain that Brad is beyond legit as a coach.   Also, about a month after this thread, we opened up our pockets to spend 12 million dollars on Amir Johnson to fill our most glaring need ... dramatically changing the roster and negating any previous opinions.   

The quote you're sharing from October (the preseason) is me acknowledging this shift in roster based primarily on Amir Johnson:  "Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it."   It's me once again acknowledging that on paper, conventional wisdom showed that this team was garbage, but that conventional wisdom was irrelevant.  We're living in the new age of the NBA and advanced metrics during the pre-season showed this team winning 45+.  Even a pessimist like myself acknowledged it.  It didn't matter what conventional wisdom said or what our roster looked like on paper... as far back as October:   "I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year"   

Amir changed everything.... and that's why he's being paid the same as Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Jared Sullinger combined.  You gotta pay to play in this league.   

[Ilikesports17]

And of course, Ainge hit a home run by signing Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year... suddenly this went from a team that looked unlikely to make the playoffs again to a team that looked pretty solid.   By the preseason, even LarBrd33 was on board with the 45 win prediction:

LarBrd33's quote from October: 

I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

It's bizarre that this person distorts what he previously wrote. I tracked down his comment. He appears to put in sarcastic comments and then return later to take them out of context.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=80942.15

All this media love feels like an over-correction for people who undervalue advanced metrics.  OoOO Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it, I'm just saying that on old school paper, this team is garbage.  Our best player just spent the playoffs averaging 9 minutes off the bench with 9 coach decision DNP's.   It's nice that we're living in a new world where Brandon Wright is legitimate trade chip, but convention wisdom says this Boston team is a bottomfeeder.  Here's hoping conventional wisdom is dead wrong.  I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

Other quotes:

I'll surprised if the Brooklyn pick ends up in the top 10.  Sure hope so, tho.

I dunno, man.  The "Brooklyn Sucks" narrative seems contingent on the idea that Brook Lopez will inevitable re-injury himself.   What if he doesn't?   

And here are some quotes from his friend Pho Sita:

The pre-season buzz is a bit hyperbolic for the Celts.  I think they'll be a middle of the road team, but placing them ahead of the Wizards and putting them right there in contention with the Raps for the Atlantic Division seems premature.

Deep though they may be, the Celtics still lack top end talent, so I expect them to have their ups and down and finish close to .500.

I sure hope they're right about the Nets.  I still think not having any reason to tank makes a difference, especially in the East.  Hard to get a bottom 5 record when you have no reason not to try to win as many games as possible.  It's not like they have any younger players that need to see the floor.  The vets in Brooklyn will get all the floor time they could ever want and then plenty more.

Pho Sita asks who I am and where have I been in the conversation. I tend to not read people who are consistently wrong and excessively wordy. If you two are moderators, I'll leave the board. Otherwise, there are a lot of people who like the Celtics but not so much people who get so much wrong.

I like to write a bit, but the difference is I don't expect anyone to read it. If people do, then I thank them for taking the time. I try not to write just anything.

CelticPride, everything you quoted from me is pretty consistent with what I'm saying.  There's nothing bizarre about it.

It was a conversation about the projections for the Nets.  I was skeptical they'd be terrible, but a lot of that was contingent on whether or not they stayed healthy.  They didn't.  Old news.  We benefited from it.

But it also backs up what I was saying back in June of this year... which is that on paper this team was garbage... Ainge had set this team up to basically bottom out last year and it semi backfired on him... quote suggest her preferred getting a top 10 pick over making the playoffs, but Brad got the team to win in spite of his efforts.  According to experts, we didn't have a single starter caliber player.  That roster, on paper, was a 25 win bottomfeeder, but it managed to win 40 games and sneak into the playoffs.  As of June of 2015, it still looked like a bottomfeeder on paper... but we already knew that Brad Stevens was capable of getting a bottomfeeder to overachieve.  What was questionable was #1 - whether Brad could work his magic again and #2 - if the roster would stay the same. 

Well we now know for certain that Brad is beyond legit as a coach.   Also, about a month after this thread, we opened up our pockets to spend 12 million dollars on Amir Johnson to fill our most glaring need ... dramatically changing the roster and negating any previous opinions.   

The quote you're sharing from October (the preseason) is me acknowledging this shift in roster based primarily on Amir Johnson:  "Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it."   It's me once again acknowledging that on paper, conventional wisdom showed that this team was garbage, but that conventional wisdom was irrelevant.  We're living in the new age of the NBA and advanced metrics during the pre-season showed this team winning 45+.  Even a pessimist like myself acknowledged it.  It didn't matter what conventional wisdom said or what our roster looked like on paper... as far back as October:   "I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year"   

Amir changed everything.... and that's why he's being paid the same as Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Jared Sullinger combined.  You gotta pay to play in this league.

Dear God.

That is impressive.

Its like suggesting RHJ and Jacks injuries are the reason your Nets arent making the playoffs.

[PhoSita]

I never bought the "catching teams off guard" theory.  The Celtics played in a lot of good games against other teams playing hard (we just happened to play a little bit harder; it's our m.o.) on most nights.

I honestly believe that the main proponents of the "opposition taking us lightly" theory had probably already tuned out and weren't really paying close attention to the Celtics anymore.

Of course, simply being wrong about the capabilities of their basketball team wasn't an option.  So the theory about the other guys not playing hard was concocted as a convenient explanation that didn't mean having to admit to being wrong about the team sucking.

Well, I can say I for one was still watching the games.  I give credence to the idea of March / April being a bit of a silly season in the NBA, at least in some years, because smarter people than I -- i.e. people who write about the game for a living and are plugged into locker room / coach talk -- write and talk about it as a legitimate factor.

[PhoSita]

I like to write a bit, but the difference is I don't expect anyone to read it. If people do, then I thank them for taking the time. I try not to write just anything.

Yet in my experience with you I've only noticed you calling people out and stirring controversy, not making original or interesting points, or fleshing out more common viewpoints with deep analysis or insight.

For one thing, "I tend not to pay attention to what other people post," is not a particularly persuasive excuse or explanation, really in any situation.

If you stick around here long enough, you'll find that deriding other posters with labels and strawman arguments, trying to create a postive-posters versus negative-posters divide ... it's nothing new or interesting on these boards.

So, yeah.  Thanks for your input.

[fairweatherfan]

And of course, Ainge hit a home run by signing Amir Johnson for 12 mil per year... suddenly this went from a team that looked unlikely to make the playoffs again to a team that looked pretty solid.   By the preseason, even LarBrd33 was on board with the 45 win prediction:

LarBrd33's quote from October: 

I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

It's bizarre that this person distorts what he previously wrote. I tracked down his comment. He appears to put in sarcastic comments and then return later to take them out of context.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=80942.15

All this media love feels like an over-correction for people who undervalue advanced metrics.  OoOO Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it, I'm just saying that on old school paper, this team is garbage.  Our best player just spent the playoffs averaging 9 minutes off the bench with 9 coach decision DNP's.   It's nice that we're living in a new world where Brandon Wright is legitimate trade chip, but convention wisdom says this Boston team is a bottomfeeder.  Here's hoping conventional wisdom is dead wrong.  I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year.   It makes me feel dirty.

Other quotes:

I'll surprised if the Brooklyn pick ends up in the top 10.  Sure hope so, tho.

I dunno, man.  The "Brooklyn Sucks" narrative seems contingent on the idea that Brook Lopez will inevitable re-injury himself.   What if he doesn't?   

And here are some quotes from his friend Pho Sita:

The pre-season buzz is a bit hyperbolic for the Celts.  I think they'll be a middle of the road team, but placing them ahead of the Wizards and putting them right there in contention with the Raps for the Atlantic Division seems premature.

Deep though they may be, the Celtics still lack top end talent, so I expect them to have their ups and down and finish close to .500.

I sure hope they're right about the Nets.  I still think not having any reason to tank makes a difference, especially in the East.  Hard to get a bottom 5 record when you have no reason not to try to win as many games as possible.  It's not like they have any younger players that need to see the floor.  The vets in Brooklyn will get all the floor time they could ever want and then plenty more.

Pho Sita asks who I am and where have I been in the conversation. I tend to not read people who are consistently wrong and excessively wordy. If you two are moderators, I'll leave the board. Otherwise, there are a lot of people who like the Celtics but not so much people who get so much wrong.

I like to write a bit, but the difference is I don't expect anyone to read it. If people do, then I thank them for taking the time. I try not to write just anything.

CelticPride, everything you quoted from me is pretty consistent with what I'm saying.  There's nothing bizarre about it.

It was a conversation about the projections for the Nets.  I was skeptical they'd be terrible, but a lot of that was contingent on whether or not they stayed healthy.  They didn't.  Old news.  We benefited from it.

But it also backs up what I was saying back in June of this year... which is that on paper this team was garbage... Ainge had set this team up to basically bottom out last year and it semi backfired on him... quote suggest her preferred getting a top 10 pick over making the playoffs, but Brad got the team to win in spite of his efforts.  According to experts, we didn't have a single starter caliber player.  That roster, on paper, was a 25 win bottomfeeder, but it managed to win 40 games and sneak into the playoffs.  As of June of 2015, it still looked like a bottomfeeder on paper... but we already knew that Brad Stevens was capable of getting a bottomfeeder to overachieve.  What was questionable was #1 - whether Brad could work his magic again and #2 - if the roster would stay the same. 

Well we now know for certain that Brad is beyond legit as a coach.   Also, about a month after this thread, we opened up our pockets to spend 12 million dollars on Amir Johnson to fill our most glaring need ... dramatically changing the roster and negating any previous opinions.   

The quote you're sharing from October (the preseason) is me acknowledging this shift in roster based primarily on Amir Johnson:  "Amir Johnson's advanced defensive stats show he's the impact player Boston needs!  Look at all that depth!  I get it."   It's me once again acknowledging that on paper, conventional wisdom showed that this team was garbage, but that conventional wisdom was irrelevant.  We're living in the new age of the NBA and advanced metrics during the pre-season showed this team winning 45+.  Even a pessimist like myself acknowledged it.  It didn't matter what conventional wisdom said or what our roster looked like on paper... as far back as October:   "I'm a pessimist and even I buy into the advanced metric koolaid that we're winning 45+ this year"   

Amir changed everything.... and that's why he's being paid the same as Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Jared Sullinger combined.  You gotta pay to play in this league.

Dear God.

That is impressive.

Its like suggesting RHJ and Jacks injuries are the reason your Nets arent making the playoffs.

I agree, this is excellent work Mr. Kaufman.  Entire thread's gone kinda Kaufman.


BTW, just to be on topic, I'll have everyone know I predicted the exact number of wins the Celtics will wind up with this year.  I'll let you know how after it happens.

[Celtics18]

I never bought the "catching teams off guard" theory.  The Celtics played in a lot of good games against other teams playing hard (we just happened to play a little bit harder; it's our m.o.) on most nights.

I honestly believe that the main proponents of the "opposition taking us lightly" theory had probably already tuned out and weren't really paying close attention to the Celtics anymore.

Of course, simply being wrong about the capabilities of their basketball team wasn't an option.  So the theory about the other guys not playing hard was concocted as a convenient explanation that didn't mean having to admit to being wrong about the team sucking.

Well, I can say I for one was still watching the games.  I give credence to the idea of March / April being a bit of a silly season in the NBA, at least in some years, because smarter people than I -- i.e. people who write about the game for a living and are plugged into locker room / coach talk -- write and talk about it as a legitimate factor.

Sure, it's a long season, and good teams fall flat in a few games that they should handle over the course of that long season.  Also, bad teams inevitably catch a better team in a lull and beat them.

What I believe you've done in regards to last season's run is to misunderstand that phenomenon in regards to the Celtics. 

Those kinds of lulls don't affect a team like the Celtics going on a run that stretched over more than thirty games.  That kind of run isn't explained by the Playing Down Theory.

The fact that the Celtics developed a reputation as a gritty, take-no-prisoners, scrappy team during that run doesn't help your argument one bit either.  Even if better teams were to play down to the competition at times, this is not the kind of team you want to let your guard down against.

The Celtics weren't going to just go away because the other team had more talent on paper, and let people cruise to victories. 

I'm pleased that you take responsibility for being wrong about this year's team's ceiling.  It would be nice if you also admitted that you may have been mistaken about what led to the team's turnaround after last year's trade deadline.

[BDeCosta26]

Since I don't see fireworks on the horizon, I'm saying under.

Agreed.

It's very early right now, a lot of variables for this summer, but I'd ballpark next year at 30-45 wins.  My expectation skews toward the lower half of that range, but I wouldn't blame somebody for leaning toward the higher end.

as-is i don't think this roster would get back to the playoffs next year.  They overachieved and caught teams off guard.

Man... who knew the signing of Amir Johnson would make such a difference.  As-is in June, the team didn't look like it would be able to make the playoffs... but then a month later we sign Amir Johnson and all bets were off.   12 mil well spent, if you ask me.

Brilliant!!!

Completely true, though.  The team lacked interior defenders.  This thread was before we added Amir.   Amir is literally the highest paid player on this team by a whopping 5.3 million dollars.  It certainly wasn't an insignificant signing.  Just by going by pay this year, one could come to the conclusion that Amir Johnson is our most valuable player... if value is equated by how much money is spent on a player.  We're paying Amir about the same as Thomas, Smart and Sully combined.

How can someone's predictions pre-Amir be taken seriously?  It's not the same roster.  These guesses were made before we filled our most glaring need by opening up our pockets for our highest paid player.   Ainge needed to a hit a home run and it appears he did.  Amir has the highest offensive rating of any starter on the team and he's tied for 2nd highest defensive rating.  And that's why we spent 12 mil on Amir Johnson instead of 2 million on Bismack Biyombo.  12 million well spent.

Your not really trying to say Amir Johnson (our only upgrade from a year ago) is the reason were gonna win 10-15 more games than you thought, are you? Cause that's crazy. I mean, Amir has been helpful, for sure and he's an advanced stats darling but 15 wins? He's not Steph Curry. Amir isn't exactly a world beater.

I think you need to recognize that the talent on this team isn't as bad "on paper" as you thought, not even close. That's what happens when you have a team full of guys that haven't even hit their prime yet.

Just about everyone (even the rookies in a different way) has noticeably improved under CBS. IT has an ever expanding arsenal of moves around the paint, he's become a much more willing facilitator and is becoming very good at knowing when to pass and when to attack. His defense has improved a ton (even though he has a big size disadvantage) to the point where he's almost not a negative and He's flourished in the starting role. He's a upper-echelon, all-star caliber PG now and coming to Boston has brought out the best in him. Crowder has become a pretty dang good shooter, especially in the clutch, and has expanded his offensive game to the point where he can be a go-to player when the team needs a bucket. He's driving to the hoop often, getting to the line, he's added some great mid-range moves, he's become a MUCH better passer and he's playing elite defense against the NBA's best night in night out. He's gone from a throw-in for the Rondo deal to a guy you wouldn't trade unless you were getting an absolute star in return. Just amazing how far he's come and he's still improving at his young age.

Everyone's improved. Sullinger is playing as intelligently and as hard as he's ever played in this league. Bradley's defense is back-up to where he was a couple years ago, he's shooting much smarter shots, has improved his lack of dribbling/passing/driving skills and may be the most consistent shooter on the team. He's been great. Huge value. Smart has made big strides on offense. It seems like he's shooting much better post snow day, back up. He's driving more often, with more success and more aggression. He's made even bigger strides as a passer/ball-handler, which is HUGE for his development. Smart's offense has played a big role in our recent stretch, and he's still bringing the 110% effort to every game, playing ferocious defense, and making big time plays down the stretch of games. He's only 21, he's improved a lot in a short time. Kelly had made large improvements on both sides of the ball before his injury, and he's been mostly consistent with his aggressiveness. Plus he's been shooting lights out, and has really taken his dribble-drive game to the next level. Heck even Turner has become a pretty good defender, on top of being a perfect catalyst to success of the bench. He's been playing very well within his role, contributing big to all facets of the game. This guy was considered a huge bust (and still is), but coming here has taken him from almost out of the league to a guy who's going to be offered near 8 figures this summer.

Sure, CBS has a LOT to do with it, he's an excellent coach who gets the best out of guys. But maybe this team is more talented than you'd like to admit. Considering this team is pretty young, I think your fooling yourself if you still believe that "they don't have anyone that would start on a contender".  We have at least 3 or 4, maybe even 5 guys that could certainly start on a contender. This team is vastly improving in a short amount of time, collectively and individually. If this team was as un-talented as you've said they are, there's no way they could add a guy like Durant and contend for a title right? I mean, SA, GSW, CLE, OKC, LAC, all have guys who would start on other contenders,so they couldn't be. But they would. Put KD on this team and we immediately become a likely team to come out of the east. That's because we have such a young, valuable and talented roster

I get your the pessimist of the year and all, but you really undervalue how good this team and these players are really becoming. Amir isn't the reason were the 3rd seed and are looking at 50 wins, Thomas, Crowder, AB, Smart, Sully, Kelly, ET and Brad Stevens are the reason we've done MUCH better than you expected. You really need to hop on the bandwagon soon LB, were running out of seats up here. You just have to stop blaming the Nets terrible record on "injuries" when they've been pretty healthy all year. Every team has at least a couple things happen but their best players have stayed healthy.

[guava_wrench]

Um, we made the playoffs last season without Amir.

[LarBrd33]

Since I don't see fireworks on the horizon, I'm saying under.

Agreed.

It's very early right now, a lot of variables for this summer, but I'd ballpark next year at 30-45 wins.  My expectation skews toward the lower half of that range, but I wouldn't blame somebody for leaning toward the higher end.

as-is i don't think this roster would get back to the playoffs next year.  They overachieved and caught teams off guard.

Man... who knew the signing of Amir Johnson would make such a difference.  As-is in June, the team didn't look like it would be able to make the playoffs... but then a month later we sign Amir Johnson and all bets were off.   12 mil well spent, if you ask me.

Brilliant!!!

Completely true, though.  The team lacked interior defenders.  This thread was before we added Amir.   Amir is literally the highest paid player on this team by a whopping 5.3 million dollars.  It certainly wasn't an insignificant signing.  Just by going by pay this year, one could come to the conclusion that Amir Johnson is our most valuable player... if value is equated by how much money is spent on a player.  We're paying Amir about the same as Thomas, Smart and Sully combined.

How can someone's predictions pre-Amir be taken seriously?  It's not the same roster.  These guesses were made before we filled our most glaring need by opening up our pockets for our highest paid player.   Ainge needed to a hit a home run and it appears he did.  Amir has the highest offensive rating of any starter on the team and he's tied for 2nd highest defensive rating.  And that's why we spent 12 mil on Amir Johnson instead of 2 million on Bismack Biyombo.  12 million well spent.

Your not really trying to say Amir Johnson (our only upgrade from a year ago) is the reason were gonna win 10-15 more games than you thought, are you? Cause that's crazy. I mean, Amir has been helpful, for sure and he's an advanced stats darling but 15 wins? He's not Steph Curry. Amir isn't exactly a world beater.

I think you need to recognize that the talent on this team isn't as bad "on paper" as you thought, not even close. That's what happens when you have a team full of guys that haven't even hit their prime yet.

Just about everyone (even the rookies in a different way) has noticeably improved under CBS. IT has an ever expanding arsenal of moves around the paint, he's become a much more willing facilitator and is becoming very good at knowing when to pass and when to attack. His defense has improved a ton (even though he has a big size disadvantage) to the point where he's almost not a negative and He's flourished in the starting role. He's a upper-echelon, all-star caliber PG now and coming to Boston has brought out the best in him. Crowder has become a pretty dang good shooter, especially in the clutch, and has expanded his offensive game to the point where he can be a go-to player when the team needs a bucket. He's driving to the hoop often, getting to the line, he's added some great mid-range moves, he's become a MUCH better passer and he's playing elite defense against the NBA's best night in night out. He's gone from a throw-in for the Rondo deal to a guy you wouldn't trade unless you were getting an absolute star in return. Just amazing how far he's come and he's still improving at his young age.

Everyone's improved. Sullinger is playing as intelligently and as hard as he's ever played in this league. Bradley's defense is back-up to where he was a couple years ago, he's shooting much smarter shots, has improved his lack of dribbling/passing/driving skills and may be the most consistent shooter on the team. He's been great. Huge value. Smart has made big strides on offense. It seems like he's shooting much better post snow day, back up. He's driving more often, with more success and more aggression. He's made even bigger strides as a passer/ball-handler, which is HUGE for his development. Smart's offense has played a big role in our recent stretch, and he's still bringing the 110% effort to every game, playing ferocious defense, and making big time plays down the stretch of games. He's only 21, he's improved a lot in a short time. Kelly had made large improvements on both sides of the ball before his injury, and he's been mostly consistent with his aggressiveness. Plus he's been shooting lights out, and has really taken his dribble-drive game to the next level. Heck even Turner has become a pretty good defender, on top of being a perfect catalyst to success of the bench. He's been playing very well within his role, contributing big to all facets of the game. This guy was considered a huge bust (and still is), but coming here has taken him from almost out of the league to a guy who's going to be offered near 8 figures this summer.

Sure, CBS has a LOT to do with it, he's an excellent coach who gets the best out of guys. But maybe this team is more talented than you'd like to admit. Considering this team is pretty young, I think your fooling yourself if you still believe that "they don't have anyone that would start on a contender".  We have at least 3 or 4, maybe even 5 guys that could certainly start on a contender. This team is vastly improving in a short amount of time, collectively and individually. If this team was as un-talented as you've said they are, there's no way they could add a guy like Durant and contend for a title right? I mean, SA, GSW, CLE, OKC, LAC, all have guys who would start on other contenders,so they couldn't be. But they would. Put KD on this team and we immediately become a likely team to come out of the east. That's because we have such a young, valuable and talented roster

I get your the pessimist of the year and all, but you really undervalue how good this team and these players are really becoming. Amir isn't the reason were the 3rd seed and are looking at 50 wins, Thomas, Crowder, AB, Smart, Sully, Kelly, ET and Brad Stevens are the reason we've done MUCH better than you expected. You really need to hop on the bandwagon soon LB, were running out of seats up here. You just have to stop blaming the Nets terrible record on "injuries" when they've been pretty healthy all year. Every team has at least a couple things happen but their best players have stayed healthy.

Not sure what you mean by hopping on the bandwagon.  I've been on board with the 45+ win projections since October.   

I liked everyone on the team.   There was a ton of depth, but it seemed like a team of 6th men to me.  Just really solid role players top to bottom and no legitimate starters.   Since then, Thomas has made an all-star team (despite the fact that his stats are basically the same as they were on the Kings and his defensive limitations are still there), Bradley has proven a capable starter, Jae Crowder has been a revelation and Amir Johnson has filled our most pressing need as the 12 million dollar man.  Despite agreeing with the widespread consensus that it was a deep team lacking in starter-caliber talent, I still had the utmost faith in Brad Stevens.   October 2015:  "If I'm not super enthusiastic about the talent on this team... it's partially because there's not a lot to be super enthusiastic about in regards to the talent on this team.   I think Brad can probably get them 45 wins in spite of this."

Take a 45 win team, rise the talent level up through individual player development... and you have a team that looks like it can win 50.