How much can #16 + 2016 Brooklyn pick can get you

[get_banners]

I'd be wary of trading any of the Nets picks, unless there is some protection on them. I think the Nets could totally nosedive and be one of the worst teams in the league, as soon as next season (at the very least, I can't see them making the playoffs UNLESS they find a time machine for D-Will and Iso Joe and a healing machine for Lopez, if he resigns with them after he prob opts-out).

[loco_91]

I'm not sure #16+Nets would fetch a top-8 pick. The top 8 in this draft is really strong, and the Nets pick is unlikely to be better than ~12 next year. I'd probably do 16+Nets+Clips for WCS, Winslow or Hezonja. Would also be happy to use James Young instead of either #16 or Nets '16. But that's just because I'm very high on all those players and we have too many likely mid-first round picks anyway.

[colincb]

Not high enough to get the top two picks.  It's all a crapshoot after the two bigs so unless Danny's in love with someone like WCS, I wouldn't. Open to trading all the picks this year though which in theory should get you into the second tier.

IIRC, the Nets players (Young and Lopez) will likely opt out and if the Nets sign them to new long-term contracts, they're screwed long-term and if they don't, they're screwed short-term. DWill and Joe Johnson are going to age like rancid wine.

[LarBrd33]

Brooklyn pick is probably 12-18 unless they get rid of their stars. 

Pick gains value because of the unknown (perhaps it can be top 3)

But the pick loses value because teams want instant gratification.

So how much can #16 and #15 get you?    Probably #6-9?

You said that the Nets would have the second best record in the East next year now they have slipped to 12-18 in the draft. 

He said that? If so, he's the Mike Felger of the blog, simply looking for a reaction.

No.   I didn't say that. He's taking something I said out of context and simply looking for a reaction.

I said that I expect the Nets pick next year to end up 12-18, but based on the talent there and how disgusting the Eastern conference is, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish much better.   Not like I'm expecting it. It just wouldn't surprise me.  They have talent.   Point I was making is that the Nets finished strong and have made the playoffs for a few years in a row.   They'd have to get hit by injures or let guys like Thad Young and Brook Lopez walk to bottom out.  Since they have no draft pick over the next 3 years, I assume they'll keep trying to be as competitive as possible.  I wouldn't bet money on them bottoming out.  Also, I made those comments like a month ago after their season was already over.  Why would my opinion of them dramatically change between then and now?  Makes no sense.

Look, I say some outlandish stuff.  No need for people to start fabricating things.  I predicted the 2012-13 Lakers would finish 82-0.  If you're looking to discredit me, stick to things I've actually said.

I don't need to discredit you, you do a pretty good job of it yourself.
You clearly stated that with Young and Lopez back and with good health that they could be the second best team in the East.  Funny when people pull you up on things you post you always change the narrative to be suit yourself.
Great skill to have besides knowing other people's motivations of course.

My quote:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=77926.0;nowap

That's all well and good, but they could win 50 games next year and I wouldn't be surprised.   Just depends on what happens with Lopez and Thadeus.   With both those guys healthy, they should be a playoff team again next year.

Same exact thread:

They improved after swapping KGs corpse for Thad.  Nets finished the season 13-6 and took the top seed team to 6 games.     They finished the season on a 56 win pace.   That team has enough talent to win 50 games next season.   Whether or not they keep Lopez/Thad and whether they remain healthy obviously matters.  But I'd bet on them making the playoffs before I bet on them bottoming out.

 Brooklyn isn't a bad team.  They have made the playoffs 3 years in a row.   If Lopez and Thad abandon them, they might struggle. Otherwise, should be back in the playoffs again next year... and 50 wins wouldn't shock me.   I agree 40ish is more reasonable.

Later in that same thread:

There's a lot of talent on Brooklyn's roster.  Certainly more than the Celtics.   Brooklyn underachieved.  Boston overachieved.  Brooklyn is more likely to make the playoffs next season.

Later in that same thread:

Everyone seems to base their hypotheticals on the certainty that Lopez either leaves Brooklyn or gets injured.   One of those things might happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Later in that same thread after being accused of trolling:

I acknowledge that we beat them towards the end of the season and finished just as hot, but I stand by it.   We got swept handily by the 2nd seed and they took the top seed to 6 games.  Boston's interior defense is atrocious.   In a 4 game series, Lopez and the Nets would beat us.  It's not really relevant, though.  Who cares?   I've already said as-is, this Celtic team probably wins 30-45 games.   That's likely what we can expect from Brooklyn next season as well. All I said is that I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nets win 50.   The premise of this article is that the Nets are doomed and are on the verge of bottoming out.  I don't buy it.   

Whether or not Boston is better than Brooklyn is an irrelevant conversation.   All that matters is that Boston owns their picks for the next 3 years.  I see the pick ending up 12-17 next year.  Wouldn't be shocked to see it over 18. They have talent on that roster.

FYI, people have been expecting Brooklyn to bottom out for two years.   They made the playoffs in spite of this.   This "Brooklyn is doomed" stuff is hardly a new idea.   They have made the playoffs 3 years in a row and I expect them to be a playoff team next year as well if they keep their roster intact.

Later in that same thread:

Last year, they started out the season 11-21 and everyone wrote them off expecting them to bottom out.  I wasn't convinced.  I said they'd probably rattle off 15 in a row.  Naturally, folks here scoffed.   They won 10 out of their next 11.   I was close.

Writing off the Nets is nothing new.  Prob a playoff team again next year.  I want them to stink as much as the next guy, but I'm not expecting it.  They are a talented team.  As long as they remain healthy, they will be fine.

As others have pointed out, they have no incentive to be bad.   They probably sneak into the playoffs in 2016 and then all bets are off since the cap jumps 20 mil in 2017 (and Joe Johnson will be off the books) and another 20 mil in 2018 (and Deron Williams will be off the books).   If there's any hope of getting a lotto pick out of them, it's in 2016.  After that, they could be a contender for all we know.   

The idea that Brooklyn is doomed and "hopeless" is one that doesn't take into account the changing landscape of the NBA salary cap. 

2016 - Assuming they keep Lopez and Thad - playoffs
2017 - Johnson falls off the books and the cap jumps to 87 mil - enough to sign a max deal
2018 - Deron falls off the books and the cap jumps to 109 mil - enough to sign two more max deals

Later in that same thread after being accused of claiming the Nets were finishing 2nd next year:

I'm not predicting the Nets will finish 2nd next year.   Do me a favor clay, and try not to take that one out of context for the next 6 months.  I'd rather not see it pop up in every thread I comment in.  If you and potter want an insane LarBrd33 quote to keep reminding everyone of, stick with the one where I said Smart's ceiling is Noel's floor.   I'm rather proud of that bit of hyperbole.

However, I am saying that (if the Nets resign Lopez and Thad), the pick they owe us should end up 12-17 next year.   I'm also saying that, while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be shocked to see them win 50 games and finish 2nd in the East.   FWIW, If the draft pick ends up better than 12, feel free to rub it in my face.  I welcome it.  Also, a personal thanks and TP for being a worthy successor to BBallTim.  Ever since he moved to Dallas, I've missed having someone constantly calling me out and nitpicking everything I say.  Keeps me on my toes.

At this point, I just have to assume you're trolling me.  I couldn't have been more clear.  In no way has my "narrative" changed. 

I do, however, agree with you that I do a pretty good job of making a fool out of myself.  I expect Brooklyn to win 40ish games and for the pick to end up somewhere around 12-18.   If Lopez and Thad bail, all bets are off.  As-is, I wouldn't be surprised to see them win 50 games.  I'm not expecting it. 

I know I suck as a writer, but I try to be clear when I lay out my opinion on a forum. 

[GC003332]

Brooklyn pick is probably 12-18 unless they get rid of their stars. 

Pick gains value because of the unknown (perhaps it can be top 3)

But the pick loses value because teams want instant gratification.

So how much can #16 and #15 get you?    Probably #6-9?

You said that the Nets would have the second best record in the East next year now they have slipped to 12-18 in the draft. 

He said that? If so, he's the Mike Felger of the blog, simply looking for a reaction.

No.   I didn't say that. He's taking something I said out of context and simply looking for a reaction.

I said that I expect the Nets pick next year to end up 12-18, but based on the talent there and how disgusting the Eastern conference is, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish much better.   Not like I'm expecting it. It just wouldn't surprise me.  They have talent.   Point I was making is that the Nets finished strong and have made the playoffs for a few years in a row.   They'd have to get hit by injures or let guys like Thad Young and Brook Lopez walk to bottom out.  Since they have no draft pick over the next 3 years, I assume they'll keep trying to be as competitive as possible.  I wouldn't bet money on them bottoming out.  Also, I made those comments like a month ago after their season was already over.  Why would my opinion of them dramatically change between then and now?  Makes no sense.

Look, I say some outlandish stuff.  No need for people to start fabricating things.  I predicted the 2012-13 Lakers would finish 82-0.  If you're looking to discredit me, stick to things I've actually said.

I don't need to discredit you, you do a pretty good job of it yourself.
You clearly stated that with Young and Lopez back and with good health that they could be the second best team in the East.  Funny when people pull you up on things you post you always change the narrative to be suit yourself.
Great skill to have besides knowing other people's motivations of course.

My quote:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=77926.0;nowap

That's all well and good, but they could win 50 games next year and I wouldn't be surprised.   Just depends on what happens with Lopez and Thadeus.   With both those guys healthy, they should be a playoff team again next year.

Same exact thread:

They improved after swapping KGs corpse for Thad.  Nets finished the season 13-6 and took the top seed team to 6 games.     They finished the season on a 56 win pace.   That team has enough talent to win 50 games next season.   Whether or not they keep Lopez/Thad and whether they remain healthy obviously matters.  But I'd bet on them making the playoffs before I bet on them bottoming out.

 Brooklyn isn't a bad team.  They have made the playoffs 3 years in a row.   If Lopez and Thad abandon them, they might struggle. Otherwise, should be back in the playoffs again next year... and 50 wins wouldn't shock me.   I agree 40ish is more reasonable.

Later in that same thread:

There's a lot of talent on Brooklyn's roster.  Certainly more than the Celtics.   Brooklyn underachieved.  Boston overachieved.  Brooklyn is more likely to make the playoffs next season.

Later in that same thread:

Everyone seems to base their hypotheticals on the certainty that Lopez either leaves Brooklyn or gets injured.   One of those things might happen, but I'm not expecting it.

Later in that same thread after being accused of trolling:

I acknowledge that we beat them towards the end of the season and finished just as hot, but I stand by it.   We got swept handily by the 2nd seed and they took the top seed to 6 games.  Boston's interior defense is atrocious.   In a 4 game series, Lopez and the Nets would beat us.  It's not really relevant, though.  Who cares?   I've already said as-is, this Celtic team probably wins 30-45 games.   That's likely what we can expect from Brooklyn next season as well. All I said is that I wouldn't be shocked to see the Nets win 50.   The premise of this article is that the Nets are doomed and are on the verge of bottoming out.  I don't buy it.   

Whether or not Boston is better than Brooklyn is an irrelevant conversation.   All that matters is that Boston owns their picks for the next 3 years.  I see the pick ending up 12-17 next year.  Wouldn't be shocked to see it over 18. They have talent on that roster.

FYI, people have been expecting Brooklyn to bottom out for two years.   They made the playoffs in spite of this.   This "Brooklyn is doomed" stuff is hardly a new idea.   They have made the playoffs 3 years in a row and I expect them to be a playoff team next year as well if they keep their roster intact.

Later in that same thread:

Last year, they started out the season 11-21 and everyone wrote them off expecting them to bottom out.  I wasn't convinced.  I said they'd probably rattle off 15 in a row.  Naturally, folks here scoffed.   They won 10 out of their next 11.   I was close.

Writing off the Nets is nothing new.  Prob a playoff team again next year.  I want them to stink as much as the next guy, but I'm not expecting it.  They are a talented team.  As long as they remain healthy, they will be fine.

As others have pointed out, they have no incentive to be bad.   They probably sneak into the playoffs in 2016 and then all bets are off since the cap jumps 20 mil in 2017 (and Joe Johnson will be off the books) and another 20 mil in 2018 (and Deron Williams will be off the books).   If there's any hope of getting a lotto pick out of them, it's in 2016.  After that, they could be a contender for all we know.   

The idea that Brooklyn is doomed and "hopeless" is one that doesn't take into account the changing landscape of the NBA salary cap. 

2016 - Assuming they keep Lopez and Thad - playoffs
2017 - Johnson falls off the books and the cap jumps to 87 mil - enough to sign a max deal
2018 - Deron falls off the books and the cap jumps to 109 mil - enough to sign two more max deals

Later in that same thread after being accused of claiming the Nets were finishing 2nd next year:

I'm not predicting the Nets will finish 2nd next year.   Do me a favor clay, and try not to take that one out of context for the next 6 months.  I'd rather not see it pop up in every thread I comment in.  If you and potter want an insane LarBrd33 quote to keep reminding everyone of, stick with the one where I said Smart's ceiling is Noel's floor.   I'm rather proud of that bit of hyperbole.

However, I am saying that (if the Nets resign Lopez and Thad), the pick they owe us should end up 12-17 next year.   I'm also saying that, while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be shocked to see them win 50 games and finish 2nd in the East.   FWIW, If the draft pick ends up better than 12, feel free to rub it in my face.  I welcome it.  Also, a personal thanks and TP for being a worthy successor to BBallTim.  Ever since he moved to Dallas, I've missed having someone constantly calling me out and nitpicking everything I say.  Keeps me on my toes.

At this point, I just have to assume you're trolling me.  I couldn't have been more clear.  In no way has my "narrative" changed. 

I do, however, agree with you that I do a pretty good job of making a fool out of myself.  I expect Brooklyn to win 40ish games and for the pick to end up somewhere around 12-18.   If Lopez and Thad bail, all bets are off.  As-is, I wouldn't be surprised to see them win 50 games.  I'm not expecting it. 

I know I suck as a writer, but I try to be clear when I lay out my opinion on a forum.

TP for the write up

The quote you made about the Nets being the second best team in the East was on 28th April in the Around the NBA thread, NBA Playoff season 2014-15.
So I got the second best record mixed up with second best team. Same difference in my book.

The real context is how dare someone have hope that something good could happen to Boston.I have got to snuff that out real smart.

Anyways, people are who they are.

Go the Celtics, Ainge is not in the money business or the playoff business he is in the Empire business ha ha

[LarBrd33]

Fair enough.  I think I said something along the lines of... Thad + Lopez played together down the stretch on a 54 win pace.  The 2nd best team in the East this year won 53 games.  If Thad and Lopez stay in Brooklyn and stay healthy, they could be the 2nd best team in the East.

I guess I should have bolded "could" so it wasn't confused with "will".   Could the Nets be the 2nd best in the East next year?  Sure.  It could happen.    Will it happen?  Doubt it.   I figure they'll be a fringe playoff team.  Pick should end up in the 12-18 range.  It could end up much worse.  It could end up much better.   

A lot of people have it pegged as a top 5 pick with the assumption that Brooklyn is doomed.  I doubt that happens.  Like you, I'm hopeful for the best.  I just think it's fair to point out (especially in threads like this where we're literally discussing the value of the pick) that there's a good chance the pick will not be in the lottery. I still think it's more likely that Brooklyn makes the playoffs next season vs bottoms out next season.  There's still a lot of talent on that team and no incentive to lose.  My opinion will absolutely change this summer if Thad and Lopez sign elsewhere.  If that happens, we could be sitting on a gold mine.

TP

[DavorCroatiaFan]

Brooklyn barely made a playoff this season...DWill and JJ will be year older and continue their downfoll
They will pick #29 in draft...and even if they resign Lopez and Young i don't see them being better...
Teams who finished under them...Pacers will have Paul George back and they have #11
Miami will have Chris Bosh back and they have #10... Hornets should be better and they have #9... Who knows what will Knicks look like? Pistons and Magic should be better. Even Sixers have a alot more talent...
Next year Nets will be in the lottery. Not #12...#14 lottery. More like #5...#8 lottery. And its about time we have some luck with ping-pong balls... Maybe Nets pick gives us #1.
In 2016. we will have our pick, Mavs pick (top 7 protected), Wolves pick (top 12 protected) and 4 second round picks...
In a deal for Cousins or similar superstar we should trade this 7 picks. But not Nets pick.
That pick could be our ticket to Simmons, Brown, Labissierre...

[LarBrd33]

Brooklyn barely made a playoff this season...DWill and JJ will be year older and continue their downfoll
They will pick #29 in draft...and even if they resign Lopez and Young i don't see them being better...
Teams who finished under them...Pacers will have Paul George back and they have #11
Miami will have Chris Bosh back and they have #10... Hornets should be better and they have #9... Who knows what will Knicks look like? Pistons and Magic should be better. Even Sixers have a alot more talent...
Next year Nets will be in the lottery. Not #12...#14 lottery. More like #5...#8 lottery. And its about time we have some luck with ping-pong balls... Maybe Nets pick gives us #1.
In 2016. we will have our pick, Mavs pick (top 7 protected), Wolves pick (top 12 protected) and 4 second round picks...
In a deal for Cousins or similar superstar we should trade this 7 picks. But not Nets pick.
That pick could be our ticket to Simmons, Brown, Labissierre...

They've "barely made the playoffs" for a couple years now.  They had a promising finish to the season.  I wouldn't count on that pick being in the 5-8 range.  Here's hoping.  Young and Lopez could opt out and sign elsewhere.    I still think it's more likely that they make the playoffs again.  A team that talented shouldn't have too much trouble making the playoffs in the depleted Eastern Conference.   There was a team this year that made the 7th seed with a losing record and arguably without a single legitimate NBA starter-caliber player. 

[GC003332]

Worth noting over the last 10 years in the Eastern conference the biggest turn around in teams going from the playoff to the lottery was 3 , happened several times , one season there was no turn around. Same teams made it in both 2011 and 2012.
Who knows maybe next year 4 or 5 teams jump from the lottery into the playoffs.

[GreenWarrior]

another reason why I thought we should have tanked heavily from the start in Stevens first season. you could make the playoffs without even trying in the east...and look what happened.

[Celtics4ever]

I do not think we should trade the Brooklyn pick as it could be very valuable.  I think depending on what happens we could be in the lottery next year with some teams really looking improved after the tank season is over.

[Vermont Green]

I would be OK with packaging these up.  I think the uncertainty with the Nets actually would make their pick more attractive on the market.  The lengthy and personal debate about the likely success of the Nets next season that played out above in the thread boils down to Lopez and Young.  If they come back and are healthy, they will probably do fine.  But it is not unreasonable to assume they won't be back or in Lopez's case (and also Deron Williams), will be injured.

I would consider seeing what the Knicks would take (which will be more than these two picks but this is a pretty good start).  My sense is the Knicks need to fortify sooner rather than later to put something around Carmelo.  I don't think anyone they pick this year is going to be much help right away and you have to pay quite a bit of salary for the second fourth (oops) pick.  So maybe they are interested in these two picks plus Bradley, Thomas, and/or Turner.  Then sign Love and they are right back in contention with a decent low cost pick this year and a potentially valuable pick next year to add some low cost depth or use in a trade.

I know, it doesn't seem like quite enough for the Knicks as unfortunately, I don't think they need Isaish Thomas.  Maybe we could construct some kind of 3-way that got another established player more attractive to the Knicks that would fit in and help them win-now.

[Ilikesports17]

Brooklyn barely made a playoff this season...DWill and JJ will be year older and continue their downfoll
They will pick #29 in draft...and even if they resign Lopez and Young i don't see them being better...
Teams who finished under them...Pacers will have Paul George back and they have #11
Miami will have Chris Bosh back and they have #10... Hornets should be better and they have #9... Who knows what will Knicks look like? Pistons and Magic should be better. Even Sixers have a alot more talent...
Next year Nets will be in the lottery. Not #12...#14 lottery. More like #5...#8 lottery. And its about time we have some luck with ping-pong balls... Maybe Nets pick gives us #1.
In 2016. we will have our pick, Mavs pick (top 7 protected), Wolves pick (top 12 protected) and 4 second round picks...
In a deal for Cousins or similar superstar we should trade this 7 picks. But not Nets pick.
That pick could be our ticket to Simmons, Brown, Labissierre...

They've "barely made the playoffs" for a couple years now.  They had a promising finish to the season.  I wouldn't count on that pick being in the 5-8 range.  Here's hoping.  Young and Lopez could opt out and sign elsewhere.    I still think it's more likely that they make the playoffs again.  A team that talented shouldn't have too much trouble making the playoffs in the depleted Eastern Conference.   There was a team this year that made the 7th seed with a losing record and arguably without a single legitimate NBA starter-caliber player.

LarBrd. I agree with you and disagree with you here.
Lets start with the agree:
1. The East is not very good. Brooklyn doesnt have to be great to make the playoffs.
2. This pick probably wont be 5-8 unless Lopez is gone and there are other injury issues.
Now the disagree
1.

They've "barely made the playoffs" for a couple years now.

2 years ago
49-33 made playoffs by 15 games
1 year ago
44-38(-5 wins) made playoffs by 7 games
this year
38-44(-6 wins) made playoffs by o games (tiebraker with Pacers)
That looks a lot like the steady decline of an aging team. Also, one of those teams barely made the playoffs and 2 were in comfortably.
2.

There was a team this year that made the 7th seed with a losing record and arguably without a single legitimate NBA starter-caliber player.

nice way to sneak a shot at the celtics lol
this is an OK point. Realistically our team should have been a 30-35 win team in my book, but with a weak east and some luck they made the playoffs. However, this might not be conducive to your point.
Brooklyn was worse than us this year. A Brooklyn team, with no avenues to improve, was worse than a Boston team with arguably not a single starting caliber player.

Also, the East has some question marks, but I expect it to be, on the whole, a better conference next year. This means if Brooklyn performs like they did this year, Id expect them to miss the playoffs

I expect Brooklyn to continue to decline and I think they will win around 35 games. I dont see any way where they win more than 40, nor do i see them winning less than 25.

I expect the pick to be in the 8-12 range(put a gun to my head Id say 11) and could see it being anywhere from 6-16.

I think thats fairly reasonable.

I think the biggest thing with the Brooklyn picks is that they are an old team, with nothing for the players to get excited about, which has no way to get better, which showed signs of falling apart (Joe Johnson, and coach's postseason comments) and on top of that they are an opt-out or 2 away from being in big big trouble.

[Ilikesports17]

I would be OK with packaging these up.  I think the uncertainty with the Nets actually would make their pick more attractive on the market.  The lengthy and personal debate about the likely success of the Nets next season that played out above in the thread boils down to Lopez and Young.  If they come back and are healthy, they will probably do fine.  But it is not unreasonable to assume they won't be back or in Lopez's case (and also Deron Williams), will be injured.

I would consider seeing what the Knicks would take (which will be more than these two picks but this is a pretty good start).  My sense is the Knicks need to fortify sooner rather than later to put something around Carmelo.  I don't think anyone they pick this year is going to be much help right away and you have to pay quite a bit of salary for the second pick.  So maybe they are interested in these two picks plus Bradley, Thomas, and/or Turner.  Then sign Love and they are right back in contention with a decent low cost pick this year and a potentially valuable pick next year to add some low cost depth or use in a trade.

I know, it doesn't seem like quite enough for the Knicks as unfortunately, I don't think they need Isaish Thomas.  Maybe we could construct some kind of 3-way that got another established player more attractive to the Knicks that would fit in and help them win-now.

The 3-way seems the best idea. I dont see anyone out on the market, both worth pick #4 and available however I see several players worth combinations of lesser players and picks.

For example Brooklyn 2016 is in my book enough to get Lawson or maybe say Demar Derozan, pick 16 is enough to get Taj Gibson or Joakim Noah.

Maybe if you got really hypothetical something like Brooklyn for Derozan and 16 for Gibson, then trade maybe Derozan, Gibson, and like Tyler Zeller for pick #4?

just spittballing Im not sure how much of that would work, and I bet theyd be pretty hesitant to do that as I doubt they could sign someone to the max on top of it and that trade alone doesnt make them a contender.

[KCattheStripe]

Brooklyn pick is probably 12-18 unless they get rid of their stars. 

Brooklyn has stars?