Poll: Olynyk Will Explode in year 3 Just like college.

[2short]

I think one of the major problems with any of our guys 'exploding' is the limited minutes they get. It's not that Brad Stevens is a bad coach - obviously, it's just that the minutes allocation among our players is so even that we may not see all-star production from anybody anytime soon.

That became less of an issue as the season progressed and roles became defined.  But clearing up the Bass/Sully/Oly logjam will help.  All three of those guys are more or less on the same level.

So I'm happy with Kelly but also bass and sully
Best defensive power forward is bass, ko has actually improved to #2.  At times his offensive game is dirk like.  He rebounds well.  I wrote this awhile ago, who he reminds me of or what I see his role as...bill Walton as a Celtic.  Not bill Walton one of the most well rounded centers to ever play but sixth man bill.
Kelly as an offensive minded center that you can run the offense through or can play on perimeter.  I think once the log jam is lessened at power forward whoever is left will look better

[Celtics4ever]

So I'm happy with Kelly but also bass and sully

I think they are great backups, but shoddy as starters.   Sully has conditioning and defensive issues but otherwise is capable.   KO has confidence issues some games he is great others odorous.   Bass has always been a tweener PF who is professional and shoots decent and can't rebound despite having springy legs and a strong upper body.  All these guys have strengths but they are have real tangible flaws.  I have rooted for all of them and I have gnashed my teeth at some of their play being a Celtics fan.   I think we need to get bigger and more athletic front court guys and sorry that may include Zeller.   We need to come out of this draft with one starter.

[Rosco917]

Kelly is a back up stretch power forward, a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. Kelly Olynyk and the word center should never be mentioned in the same sentence. He has one of the highest foul to minute ratios in the league. He fouls at this rate not because he's a tough defender, he fouls at this excessive rate because he struggles to keep track of his assignments. i.e. he holds on for dear life. 

You put Kelly in the game while the opposing teams 2nd unit is in the game. Mostly to see if he can give you some quick offense, he's a decent passer for a big, he puts the ball on the floor well, he shoots well, when he stops the up faking. He will have a good outing every so often. 

if your looking for a big change in KO, you will be disappointed. He is what he is.
 

[Celtics18]

Kelly is a back up stretch power forward, a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. Kelly Olynyk and the word center should never be mentioned in the same sentence. He has one of the highest foul to minute ratios in the league. He fouls at this rate not because he's a tough defender, he fouls at this excessive rate because he struggles to keep track of his assignments. i.e. he holds on for dear life. 

You put Kelly in the game while the opposing teams 2nd unit is in the game. Mostly to see if he can give you some quick offense, he's a decent passer for a big, he puts the ball on the floor well, he shoots well, when he stops the up faking. He will have a good outing every so often. 

if your looking for a big change in KO, you will be disappointed. He is what he is.

Personally, I'm not looking for a big change other than in his MPG.  If those go up, I expect his stats to go up accordingly. 

[Ilikesports17]

Kelly has shown the occasional flash of being able to take over a game. not unlike Jeff Green it is most likely that he frustrates us to no end occasionally coming in and dominating but doing so far less frequently even than Jeff did.

However, the skillset he possesses leave the window open.

I think if he continues to get stronger and gets hit with a huge block of confidence you could see a big emergence.

[Rick Robeys Return]

People underestimate this kid. He is a smart player, who is getting better and made noticeable strides on the defensive end. He led the Cs in real plus/ minus at 3.51 and was 35th in the NBA
<http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM> It would be a real mistake to give up on him too soon.

[Beat LA]

Given his propensity for foul trouble, I sincerely doubt that he'd even be able to play enough minutes to give him the opportunity to take more shots and score more points, etc.  Even though I've never liked the guy, with our luck, I wouldn't be shocked to see him turn into a more aggressive and consistent player for the Raptors, like he did when he played in front of his dad.  Sigh.

[LilRip]

Good. We need enforcers on our team.

[crimson_stallion]

I'm not talking about starting fist fights with guys.  I'm talking about playing soft.  I think if somebody gets physical with Olynyk, they can make him utterly disappear.  The guys you mention above are not soft players, although in his earlier years, I think Dirk, too, used to shy away from contact probably too often.  Kelly has way too much Brad Lohaus in his game.  You like him, that's fine.  I'd sooner move on from him, despite him having some skill.  Ultimately, we'll probably get an upgrade at PF and keep one of Sully or Kelly.  I'll take Sully (though I have issues with his weight problems, but who doesn't.)  Given the choice between Sully's weight problem and Kelly's low-T problem, I'll take Sully.

That's a fair argument, and we each have our individual preferences, but big difference I see in those two guys is that Olynyk is showing clear improvement as an overall player, while Sully (IMHO) is not.

Sully's best offensive season was probably his rookie year, where he shot 67% inside the paint,  had a half respectable free throw rate of 0.28 and shot 49% from the field.  This season he shot only 62% in the paint, had a woeful free throw rate of 0.18, and shot 44% from the field.  All of this tells me that he's getting lazy, which is leading to him settling for lots of jumpers and not bothering to try and get easy points. 

Defense is harder to measure, but we can use Defensive Real-Plus-Minus as an indicator.  Last season Sully ranked 23rd among NBA Power forwards (+1.58) while this year he ranked 53rd (+0.16).

These numbers indicate to me that despite his high skill level and relative youth, Sully isn't actually getting better - if anything he's just getting lazier and lazier.

By comparison Kelly Olynyk (despite being a more perimeter oriented big) has improved his FG% in the paint (from 65% to 68%),  has slightly improved his Free throw rate (24.3% to 25.8%) and slightly improved his FG% (46.6% to 47.5%).

Defensively Olynyk made huge leaps, with his Defensive RPM jumping from -1.71 (62nd among centers) last season to +1.71 (23rd among centers) this season.   That's a huge jump, gong from being the 4th worst defensive center in the NBA, to being at least a starting caliber defensive player.

Also given Olynyk's lack of physical potential (short wingspan, lack of strength, etc) for his position I think that makes his improvements all the more impressive - it means he's making these improvements simply by working tirelessly on his game. 

Sully at least has some physical potential thanks to his strength and decent wingspan - if he got in shape, he could have a physical advantage against his opponents on some nights.  It's easier for a guy like that to improve as a player, but Sully has only dropped off. 

I respect this about Olynyk, and if the current trends continue over the next few years Olynyk will slowly (but steadily) improve in to a solid starter, while Sully will quickly build a reputation as the lazy guy who just doesn't care, and become that next talented big man that no team will sign.

As much as people might label Olynyk 'soft' for his personality and his finesse game, it seems pretty clear to me that there is absolutely nothing soft about his work ethic and his desire to get better as a player.  I also see nothing soft about a guy who cops a giant black eye, then goes on to score ~20 points and lead his team to victory. 

On the contrary I look at Sully as being soft because he lacks the mental strength and focus to keep motivated, keep his head in the game, and put in the effort it takes to constantly improve at this level.

I do get where you're coming from because Sully has the physical size to absorb physical impacts and power through, while Olynyk is physically more frail an easier to push off his spots, etc.  But in terms of mental strength - I've seen Olynyk take a LOT of abuse/bumping/bruising in the post and I don't know that I've ever seen him complain about it.  He also seems like one of the most willing guys on this team to slide over and take a charge. 

I think KO is certainly not a mean guy or a thug (despite what Kevin Love would have you believe), but I wouldn't say he's soft either.  From what I've seen he's got no problem at all sacrificing his body for his team. 

Albeit, each to their own!

[tarheelsxxiii]

KO can't guard Centers. He doesn't rebound well. He's a one-sided stretch 4. I don't know why you'd clamor to keep him. He has never been anything other than that. I respect his work-ethic and acknowledge that he's improving, but I wouldn't want him as anything more than a 7th man off the bench. We need interior defense within our starting 5 more than anything.

[crimson_stallion]

KO can't guard Centers. He doesn't rebound well. He's a one-sided stretch 4. I don't know why you'd clamor to keep him. He has never been anything other than that. I respect his work-ethic and acknowledge that he's improving, but I wouldn't want him as anything more than a 7th man off the bench. We need interior defense within our starting 5 more than anything.

* He has averaged 9.4 rebounds per 36 in his rookie year, and 8.5 rebounds per 36 so far for his career

* His Defensive RPM ranks top 25 among centers, so given there are some 30 teams in the NBA it's fairly safe to say he plays starter-quality defense.  Centers also have the highest average DRPM of all positions, so for him to rank there among centers is even more impressive.  If you put him in the PF group he'd jump a couple of spots.  Oh and before you say it yes, the source I got the DRPM stats from does list him as a center. 

* Despite his obvious lack of length, power and speed/quickness KO averaged 1.6 SPG and 1 BPG this season - those are solid defensive box score numbers by any standards.

* He's a very good passer - averaged just under 3 assists per 36 in both of his first two seasons.  This assists added up to 6.2 PGA (Points Generated by Assists) per 36, which is excellent for a 7 foot PF/C

*  His total PRF (Points Responsible For - adding assisted points to scored points) was 22.8 Per 36. 

* He shot 68% on shots from 0-3 feet, and that's actually where most (35.6%) of his offense came from.

* He shot 47.5% on jumpers from 10' - 16' feet, which is up there with (maybe even higher than) Brandon Bass and an excellent number by any standards...so he has a capable midrange game.   

* He shot 34.9% on threes - again very good for a PF/C in the NBA. 

* Over 75% of all his offense came from the aforementioned three areas - this means about 3/4 of all the shots Olynyk takes are efficient shots - excellent shot selection.

* He didn't shoot so well from 3' - 10' or from 16' - 3PT (both around 35%) so this indicates an area needing improvement.  Still it's not a huge deal because only about 24% of all his field goal attempts came from those areas.  Again, good shot selection - limiting the shots that he knows he's not good at.

You're trying to claim he doesn't do anything well except shoot jumpers - I'm asking...what DOESN'T he do well (or at least decently)?

I can think of two significant limitations for Olynyk:

1) Lack of rim protection - yes he averaged 1 BPG, but he's not scaring too many people away from attacking the basket.

2) Lack of elite physical gifts - sadly he was both with those, so not much he can do there

3) Foul trouble - I've no doubts this will improve as he continues to learn the game and earn the respect of officials

4) Lack of playing time - I've no doubts this will improve as his foul rate does
Otherwise he does almost everything you could ask of a guy on the court. 

KO is a better player that people give him credit for.  He's not a superstar and is not likely to ever be one, but he could be a very good starter one day. 

Lets be honest - Larry Bird never had much physical talent (size, athleticism, strength, etc) but he destroyed opponents with his smarts and his skills.  Not saying KO will ever be half the player Bird was, just saying that you CAN be a very good player without being physically dominant.

[KG Living Legend]

New nickname for clunky is the are bad assassin. Credit to someone in this. Thread. Great name.

[brundlenye the sciencefly]

New nickname for clunky is the are bad assassin. Credit to someone in this. Thread. Great name.

I second the arm bar assassin.

As far as exploding, I want to believe KO can. I'd definitely hold onto him for at least another season before I let him go.

I'm also eager to see how the team fares while he shares the court with an honest-to-god rim protector either at the 4 or 5.

[clover]

People underestimate this kid. He is a smart player, who is getting better and made noticeable strides on the defensive end. He led the Cs in real plus/ minus at 3.51 and was 35th in the NBA
<http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM> It would be a real mistake to give up on him too soon.

Exactly. (Though I do understand others' frustration.)

[Celtics4ever]

Sully at least has some physical potential thanks to his strength and decent wingspan - if he got in shape, he could have a physical advantage against his opponents on some nights.  It's easier for a guy like that to improve as a player, but Sully has only dropped off. 

He has bulk not strength according to his combine bench press numbers.  Benched 185 only 9 times,   I think KO did it 5.  Crowder did it like 20 times and Smart 18.   Can we stop the myth that he is strong, he has a big rear that creates space.