We have to be patient

[crimson_stallion]

You need talent and quite frankly after the draft the team's in the top 5 of this draft will have a better chance at super star talent than the Boston Celtics. Lakers front court with Randle and the franchise center they draft will be amazing next year. That plus money equals playoffs and not a first round exit next year.

Randle has done nothing yet to prove he can play at the NBA level. 

His combined has a lack of size (6'9") and wingspan (7'0") is average at best by NBA standards (I can name a bunch of SF's with measurements on par or better) and the athleticism and strength that made him so dangerous in college are comparatively average by NBA standards.

His IQ is questionable, he's not a very good passer, his defense is seemingly horrible, and he's yet to demonstrate anything resembling a dependable jumpshot.

In the NBA Randle is going to be at a physical disadvantage on most nights - the only way he will be able to get around that is by being smarter, harder working and more skilled then his opponents. Based on what I've seen of Randle so far, I don't think he has above average brains or skills...and hard work can only get you so far.

The is only part of Randle's game that I see translating to the NBA is his rebounding.

Also I know everybody is quick to point out guys like Zach Randolf, David West and Jared Sullinger as other college guys who did pretty in the NBA despite being relatively short and not that athletic.  The difference is that Randolph and West have ridiculous wingspans (both around 7'4") and Sully is both longer (7'1" wingspan) stronger (280 lbs) and more skilled (jump shot, passing, Basketball IQ, etc).

If Randle ever ends up as good as Sully is right now, I'll be pretty surprised.

[Celtics4ever]

Sully
Sully could be a 20/10 guy, but it's dependent on him losing the attitude issues and improving his professional work ethic.  He has a high motor when he's on the court, but seems completely disinterested off the court. 

His plus/minus stats and PER numbers are consistently solid, but he's held back defensively because of poor conditioning and offensively because he forces too many ill-advised jump shots rather than playing to his strengths (as a borderline elite inside finisher).  If he could improve his conditioning and improve his shot selection he could be a borderline all-star, and could be that easily. 

I'm actually not too concerned about his 3Pt percentages - he's got decent form on his shot, shoots a decent percentage from midrange and from the foul line - if he keeps shooting he will become a dependable 3PT shooter.  What concerns me is that almost 1/4 (23% and 28%) of all his FGA were three's over the past two seasons, and that's far too much for a guy who is as skilled down low (and even from midrange) as he is.  By comparison he has taken only 31% and 29% of his shots from inside 3 feet.  Those two figures combined are a big reason why he has shot 43.9% and 42.7% from the field in the past two seasons, which is horrendous for a PF.  The fact that so many of his shots (around 75%) have been jumpers is also a big reason why he had very poor free throw rates of 22% and 18% those two seasons...absolutely unacceptable for a 6'9" 260 lbs PF who thrives in the physical game (62% FG from inside 3 feet for his career).   

By comparison in his rookie year he took only 2% of his shots from three and 45% of his shots came from inside 3 feet (where he shot an NBA elite 67%).  The result?  He shot a nice 49% from the field and had an at least somewhat respectable Free Throw Rate of 28%.

For Sully it's all mental - his entire career success depends entirely on his discipline.

Completely ignores his defensive woes.   He can't rotate to save his life.  His footspeed is slow and his athletic base is poor.  These are things won't be fixed by mental discipline.  Ainge just made some comments about getting some guys who can play on both ends of the floor.

That being said, he can rebound.  He has nice hands and a nifty way to him on offensive boards.   I would end the three point experiment, show him film of Horford, get him in shape and tell him this is how you should play.   

Also, sometimes on his threes the ball has no rotation.   In what world is that good form?

I know everybody is quick to point to guys like Zach Randolf, David West and Jared Sullinger as other college guys who did ok in the NBA despite being relatively short and not that athletic.  The difference is that Randolph and West have ridiculous wingspans (both around 7'4") and Sully is both longer (7'1" wingspan) and more skilled (jump shot, passing, Basketball IQ, etc).

If Randle ever ends up as good as Sully is right now, I'll be pretty surprised.

I would almost take that bet.   Randle is a better athlete and seems to be able to control his weight.   Sullinger's last season with the weight caused stress fracture was Mel Turpinesque.

[crimson_stallion]

Completely ignores his defensive woes.   He can't rotate to save his life.  His footspeed is slow and his athletic base is poor.  These are things won't be fixed by mental discipline.  Ainge just made some comments about getting some guys who can play on both ends of the floor.

That being said, he can rebound.  He has nice hands and a nifty way to him on offensive boards.   I would end the three point experiment, show him film of Horford, get him in shape and tell him this is how you should play.   

Also, sometimes on his threes the ball has no rotation.   In what world is that good form?

Mental is not just on the court, it's also off the court.

Sully's conditioning issues are all a result of his lack of mental discipline.  He's a half decent (average, at least) defensive player, and plays solid defense in spurts, but his conditioning issues limits his outright agility and his durability.

If Sully dropped from 280 lbs to somewhere closer to 250 lbs, I predict he would develop in to a pretty good defensive player.     

As for his shooting, I'm not saying he has good form, just that he has decent form.  For his career so far Sully has shot just under 44.5% on long two's (16 feet to 3 point) and 76% on free throws - both well above average for an NBA Power Forward.   Brandon Bass has shot 45.7% on long two's and is considered one of the best mid-range shooting bigs of this generation.  If Sully works at it, his potential is there.

To but it simply, Sully has three main weaknesses:

1) Poor FG% - This is the result of too many three point shots and not enough offense down low (shot selection = mental)

2) Poor free throw rate - This is also the result of taking too many jump shots and not playing enough down low (shot selection = mental)

3) Limited defensively - This is the result of poor conditioning which limits his foot agility / mobility (lack of dedication to conditioning = mental)

4) Inconsistent defensively - This is the result of poor conditioning, which limits his durability.  It's clear to see that when Sully gets tired his defensive falls off a cliff and he becomes more foul prone (lack of dedication to condition = mental)

Again the only issue he has that's not a result (directly or indirectly) of his mindset is his poor shooting percentage from three, but he's a decent shooter overall and this will likely improve with time.  He can limit the affect this has on his game by referring to points 1 & 2 - improved shot selection.

[crimson_stallion]

I would almost take that bet.   Randle is a better athlete and seems to be able to control his weight.   Sullinger's last season with the weight caused stress fracture was Mel Turpinesque.

Better athlete than Sully is irrelevant - he's still not a good athlete (by NBA standards).

Sully is able to overcome his poor conditioning to some degree by being smarter and more skilled than most opponents he faces.  His ability to step out and hit the jumper allows him to spread the floor somewhat, his ability to make passes that most bigs wouldn't see helps to keep the defense on it's toes, his variety of post moves allows him to score very effectively in the paint, and he does a good job of using his 280 lbs frame to create carve out space for offensive rebounds and putbacks. 

Even though Sully has below average conditioning and athleticism by NBA standards, he does have a strength advantage against most guys he plays against, and he does a surprisingly good job of using his bulk/strength/weight in the post defensively to keep guys away from there spots - he's a difficult guy to move.

Randle has none of those advantages. 

I understand you think he will be an above average offensive player in the NBA, but how do you propose he will achieve that?  On a matchup-by-matchup basis, how do you believe he's going to beat his defenders? 

By using speed/quickness to blow past them?
By using strength to overpower them?
By using height / length to shoot over them?
By using crafty ball handling skills to get around them?
By using his consistent jump shot to help spread the floor?
By using elite IQ and footwork / moveset to outsmart them?

I don't see any of the above as areas in which Randle would have an advantage against the average NBA starter...so how do people predict he's going to score against NBA defenses?

For that matter how many guys can you list from the past decade who have:
a) Had similar physical attributes to Randle
b) Have had a similar skill set to Randle
c) Have become above average starters in the NBA at the PF spot

I've been sitting here for about 15 minutes and I can't think of any. Not one. 

Even Carlos Boozer can claim a his long wingspan (7' 2"), dangerous mid-range game (career > 41% outside of 10 feet) above average passing (2.6 assists per 36) and impressive set of post moves (likely helped by his length) as tools that helped him overcome his average height for the position. 

Probably the closest guy I can think of is Kris Humphreys - he's had a solid career, but not really an above average started overall.  If Humphrey's is Randle's upside, then he's going to leave a lot of people very dissapointed.

Also sorry if my tone comes across as 'smarty pants' or 'taking a stab', that's not my intention.  I'm just tying to look at Randle objectively and trying to work out attributes he could make use of to give himself a major advantage in the league, and I just can't think of anything.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Smart is solid. I was very frustrated by his settling for jumpers all year, but I also get it's a huge learning curve and his D was just as advertised. He needs to get to the basket and I think that will be a big turning point for him. All-star? Not sure about that, man. Seems like a stretch. Solid starter? Think it's definitely possible. What I really liked most about him was how he stepped up in the playoffs. He's hunger, seems to play his best in big moments, and I'd venture to guess that predicts future success as much as anything else.

Young is a huge project. Obviously talented, as shown in college and D league. But if he doesn't gain significant size he isn't going to play in the NBA. He needs to get a heck of a lot bigger and stronger. Worried that may not happen till the end of his rookie deal, if it does happen.

[LarBrd33]

HOnestly Boston is in a pretty rough position despite all the fluff articles about our pile of mediocre draft picks.  Ainge has a mountain ahead of him.  This isn't going to be easy.   We have a lot of assets that just aren't that valuable.  THere isn't a single bluechip asset in the mix.  We're on the path to perpetual mediocrity unless an all-star or 3 falls in our lap.  That only happens if a team accepts a Celtic pu-pu platter trade package... or a star free agent decides to sign here... and we need at least 2 of those "holy crap, Ainge is a god!!" moments for this team to return to relevance. 

It's going to take some deus ex machina for us to have a happy ending here. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

HOnestly Boston is in a pretty rough position despite all the fluff articles about our pile of mediocre draft picks.  Ainge has a mountain ahead of him.  This isn't going to be easy.   We have a lot of assets that just aren't that valuable.  THere isn't a single bluechip asset in the mix.  We're on the path to perpetual mediocrity unless an all-star or 3 falls in our lap.  That only happens if a team accepts a Celtic pu-pu platter trade package... or a star free agent decides to sign here... and we need at least 2 of those "holy crap, Ainge is a god!!" moments for this team to return to relevance. 

It's going to take some deus ex machina for us to have a happy ending here.

Agree 100%. Want to be more hopeful and was excited by our accomplishments this year, but we have major barriers in our way to becoming contenders again. A lot of pieces need to fall in place for us to have a chance at becoming remotely close to our Big 3 era, and they don't seem very likely in the near future.

[LarBrd33]

You need talent and quite frankly after the draft the team's in the top 5 of this draft will have a better chance at super star talent than the Boston Celtics. Lakers front court with Randle and the franchise center they draft will be amazing next year. That plus money equals playoffs and not a first round exit next year.

Randle has done nothing yet to prove he can play at the NBA level. 

His combined has a lack of size (6'9") and wingspan (7'0") is average at best by NBA standards (I can name a bunch of SF's with measurements on par or better) and the athleticism and strength that made him so dangerous in college are comparatively average by NBA standards.

His IQ is questionable, he's not a very good passer, his defense is seemingly horrible, and he's yet to demonstrate anything resembling a dependable jumpshot.

In the NBA Randle is going to be at a physical disadvantage on most nights - the only way he will be able to get around that is by being smarter, harder working and more skilled then his opponents. Based on what I've seen of Randle so far, I don't think he has above average brains or skills...and hard work can only get you so far.

The is only part of Randle's game that I see translating to the NBA is his rebounding.

Also I know everybody is quick to point out guys like Zach Randolf, David West and Jared Sullinger as other college guys who did pretty in the NBA despite being relatively short and not that athletic.  The difference is that Randolph and West have ridiculous wingspans (both around 7'4") and Sully is both longer (7'1" wingspan) stronger (280 lbs) and more skilled (jump shot, passing, Basketball IQ, etc).

If Randle ever ends up as good as Sully is right now, I'll be pretty surprised.

Not sure if I agree that Randle's ceiling is that low.  He looks like he'll end up being a Zach Randolph type.  Solid scorer and rebounder. 

Real question is... what kind of trade value does Randle have?  Cuz I figure the Lakers will be signing Kevin Love this summer. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

Lar, if the Cavs make the Finals (likely), you still think Love will leave? Not doubting it, thinking it may even be 40/60, just wondering why you think that.

[libermaniac]

Unfortunately patients is a foreign concept to many.

We want to win now!...we want stars now! We need to buy green shirts with players names on the back... now! I want a championship tattoo someplace on my body, now!

The fact is, some Celtic fans got spoiled by the championship of 08. We went from a team with no hope to a championship in a single year. What a freeking ride! I remember that incredible draft night very well.

Yeah, I may be a little impatient too.

Back then we had more promising talent. We had the #5 pick, Gereald Green(many thought was next TMAC), and Big Al. We also benefited from a system that let high schoolers go straight to the pro's. Danny was able to capatilize on that particular system with Big Al and Gerald Green.

After his second year in the league there wasn't anybody who thought Gerald Green was the next T-Mac.  He was a little more than a throw-in, with Big Al and the 5, in the KG trade.

[LarBrd33]

Lar, if the Cavs make the Finals (likely), you still think Love will leave? Not doubting it, thinking it may even be 40/60, just wondering why you think that.

I have no idea either way.  I don't know if success for the Cavs makes it more or less likely for Love to leave.  But it seems a lot of people think he's going to the Lakers.  I'm still holding out hope we can convince him to be the face of this franchise.

[Who]

I think Randle has a higher ceiling than Sully but a much, much lower floor. If Randle had of played last season, I believe he would have been a below average backup PF. Randle is a guy who has to completely redevelop his game upon entering the NBA because he will not be able to dominate in the NBA playing the same way he did in college.

Randle's quickness and athleticism are impressive. He looks like he can create a quickness advantage against starting PFs in the league. He has a good handle and is comfortable driving. He needs to develop a genuine jump-shot to really exploit this though. I only see post play as a small portion of his offense (20-25%). I don't think he has the size or leaping ability to finish in traffic over taller more athletic NBA defenders. Randle has good physical qualities (strength, lateral quickness, agility) to become a strong defensive player down the road but he is a really bad defender coming into the league.

I think Randle is one of those guys who has a wide range of possibilities in the NBA. Anything from a below average bench player to a top 10 PF maybe even an All-Star PF and everything in between. So hard to predict a player like this who has to change so much about himself to be successful at the next level. I think a lot of guys like this tend to underachieve but I hope that is not the case with Randle. He can do some exciting things. I really enjoy quick-footed physical PFs who can attack the basket.

[PhoSita]

I see the Randle range as something like

Carl Landry --> Mareese Speights --> Paul Millsap

[LilRip]

regarding the OP's original sentiments, I think majority are pretty sold on Smart (including myself). As for Young, there are a lot who like him, but also a number who think he'll just be alright (I'm part of the latter).

However, as presently constructed, the team is overachieving. Outside of Smart, who I'm hoping puts together a fringe all-star season next year, I have a hard time imagining any of our young players showing much improvement. Hopefully, Olynyk takes a big step offensively next year, but I'm not holding my breath for Bradley, Zeller, ET, or even Sully to suddenly develop some new skills.

Not to say they're terrible players. They'll all deserve minutes even on other teams. But a contending team wouldn't have any of them as one of their best players.

[tazzmaniac]

You need talent and quite frankly after the draft the team's in the top 5 of this draft will have a better chance at super star talent than the Boston Celtics. Lakers front court with Randle and the franchise center they draft will be amazing next year. That plus money equals playoffs and not a first round exit next year.

The chances that the Lakers make the playoffs in a stacked West next year is slim.  They only have enough cap space to sign a single Max free agent.  Randle and a rookie center are not going to contribute that many wins.  Kobe looked pretty bad before he got injured last year.