Dustin (Sacramento)
If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford (1:50 PM)
Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford
A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.
We're not talking about a giant investment here.
Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?
I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?
How many years do you want to play it safe??
Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).
They add little to get this team moving fwd.
So with 4 picks you need to take some risks. I will be happy with Upshaw, mcullough, mickey and with 45 a draft and stash or Sg like Anthoney Brown, dez wells that can shoot the three and play tough D.
What are the chances one of Upshaw, Mcullough, Mickey does not work out for us?? Best case, two out of thres or all three wont make us have to worry about getting a rim protector for years to come.
We need to take the risk now
The guys I listed are risks, they just aren't character risks.
RHJ is much more similar to MKG than he is to Crowder. RHJ has elite quickness and athleticism, which Crowder doesn't.
Lyles, isn't that similar to Olynyk. Olynyk played the 5 in college, Lyles played the 3. Olynyk is tall but has a short wingspan, Lyles isn't 7 feet tall but has a much better wingspan.
To be clear, I'm not arguing against Upshaw. I am arguing against Upshaw at 16, because that is taking him ahead of where his consensus value is (at least according to mocks). If he is going to be gone by 28, it makes a lot more sense to try to move up from that spot, than to just select him at 16. Especially when two different credible reporters say that his character concerns are so high that teams are wary of picking him in the first round.
We will have to see on draft day, If moving up costs too much... and I believe it will.. let's at least not walk away empty-handed. High risk/reward types is the name of the game. It would be worse to give up assets to get a guy that ends up being a bust than taking a chance with the pick we have.
Completely agree with the high/risk high reward guys. However, I think there are much better high risk high reward guys that will be available at 16.
Trading up for a guy who ends up being a bust is a bad idea, but so isn't picking a bust much earlier than he was valued around the league.
Wait... what? So your only concern is coming off as valuing somebody more than the other teams?
Dude it's the draft.. these guys are ALL unproven commodities so you are taking a risk no matter what... you just get the one that you feel it's going to blossom into what you need.
We have the benifit of a healthy and winning culture in our locker room, and a great coach, a perfect environment for a kid to just blossom into his role... whoever it ends up being.
As oppose to a dysfuntional team like the Knicks... I feel bad for whatever high profile prospect is going over there.
My first concern is grossly overvaluing him compared to other teams. If the reports are true he is valued as a late first or an early second not a mid teens pick.
My biggest concern is the reason he is valued thus. Getting kicked off two teams is no small feat, but it could show a lack of focus that bodes ill for his ability to develop. He does have warts besides his behavior, and his lack of behavior makes me afraid that he won't be able to cover up those warts.
Some quotes from an article on him
"First and foremost, Upshaw has a tendency to allow himself to get buried deep in the paint and sealed off against big guys posting up. This particularly showed up in his last game against Utah, where fellow first-round prospect Jakob Poeltl repeatedly was able to get position in the paint.
However, my biggest concern is what happens when teams take him away from the hoop. Not only is Upshaw's movement on the perimeter concerning just laterally, but also his laziness and inexperience leads to problems for the rest of the defense.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25010285/robert-upshaws-draft-prospects-have-more-questions-than-answersSo on defense he can exhibit laziness and lack of focus and defense is this guys calling card. Laziness is something that can't be fixed. The article further states that he has a lot of trouble guarding the pick and roll, which is currently our big men's biggest fault.
Every player is an unproven commodity, and a big part of the draft is gauging how a player can improve on their game once in the NBA. His lack of commitment to the game both on and off the court make me wary about picking him at 16. At 28 there is less risk, but at 16 I would go with a different prospect who is high risk high reward.
Ford oftens says a prospect has lottery talent if not for their deficiencies. This will be true of other players available when we pick. RHJ has lottery talent if not for his jump shot. Looney has lottery talent if not for his lack of physical maturity. I'd rather hitch my wagon on someone whose deficiency isn't lack of focus, poor decision making, laziness and trouble defending the pick and roll.
Topic: Upshaw with the 16th pick. Yes or No? (Read 29993 times)