Upshaw with the 16th pick. Yes or No?

[Evantime34]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

[slamtheking]

Chris Mannix-

• Ex-Washington center Robert Upshaw is a physical specimen. He measured in at 7’0”, 258 pounds with a 7’5” wingspan at the combine. And his shot blocking numbers last season—he averaged 4.5 blocks per game—are staggering. But Upshaw’s past—he was dismissed from Washington in January, just two years after being dismissed from Fresno State, for drug violations—is sticking to him. Several NBA executives said they wouldn’t touch Upshaw in the first round; the second round could be a stretch. Upshaw has hired a life coach and has been working out at the famed P3 gym in Santa Barbara. But it’s unlikely any team will guarantee him any money.

So that means he thinks it's unlikely he goes in the 1st rd.

I think people are way too harsh on Upshaw. He displayed poor judgement as a 20-year-old, but we're talking smoking weed, not punching his girlfriend or something. I haven't seen any evidence of real character flaws. I think you put extra emphasis on the interview, and if he comes across well then you pick him at 16. If not, you still pick him at 28 if he's still there.

and you don't think choosing to smoke pot and putting millions of dollars of future earnings at risk isn't a character flaw?  screams out as a serious character flaw/lack of intelligence to me.

[tarheelsxxiii]

take this post with whatever level of salt you wish. i played the video above of upshaw to my friend, who was trained in clinical psychology and analyses people's faces very, very well.

she watched upshaw and said the following:

1. he is not a bad guy at all. no darkness or evil inside him.

2. he could not make prolonged eye contact and looked away frequently, which she read here as signaling a severe lack of self-confidence. such a lack often plays out with poor behavioral decisions.

3. he doesnt believe that people trust him, which feeds on his lack of self-confidence.

there you go. a quick and dirty, but professional, personality reading based upon a single interview. 

my take away is that this kid is NOT some dark and evil soul. he has made bad choices, but he can learn. he needs structure and guidance, not unusual at all there.

heck, i wouldnt mind ainge rolling the dice on him. CBS may be perfect for him.

On the cusp of finishing my Ph.D. in Psychology, and was so taken by your post. My immediate reaction to the OP was: bring a psychologist to the interview, assess for any and all psychological issues, and act accordingly. Agree with others that 16 is likely too risky, and after seeing Booker show the best time on the Agility Drill, I would be happy to draft him at 16. But at 28, if our assessment of his character is fairly positive, I would definitely take a flyer on him. #50 prediction to me seems ludicrous, btw... despite significant questions about his character, there is no way someone with his size, potential, and current (albeit raw) skill set would possibly drop that low. You would be comparing him to CBloggers.

tarheels, first and foremost, congrats, congrats, congrats on wrapping up the D and finishing. it is a long, hard journey and you have my deep respect.

next, good call on having a professional check upshaw out. ha, i am sure danny already has a few lined up, but he might want to call in one or two more.  indeed, maybe you should drop him an email and let him know you are available.

Thanks, I appreciate it. I'd be pretty jazzed for that opportunity. May be a career path, huh?!

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

[Evantime34]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?

I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?

[Tr1boy]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?

I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?

How many years do you want to play it safe??

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

So with 4 picks you need to take some risks.   I will be happy with Upshaw, mcullough, mickey and with 45 a draft and stash or Sg like Anthoney Brown, dez wells that can shoot the three and play tough D.

What are the chances one of Upshaw, Mcullough, Mickey does not work out for us?? Best case, two out of thres or all three wont make us have to worry about getting a rim protector for years to come.

We need to take the risk now

[Roy H.]

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

At the same time, do we really need a more volatile version of Larry Sanders?

[Monkhouse]

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

At the same time, do we really need a more volatile version of Larry Sanders?

Roy if we did draft him at #16, how many years do you think Ainge would give Upshaw a chance to show his potential?

Sullinger showed flashes of potential, and it looks like this is his make or break year before Ainge decides to move forward with or without him.

I'm not really too worried about Upshaw, I think Upshaw may or may not change, but a player with his potential may have some value, whereas Sullinger doesn't have that much.

[Evantime34]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?

I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?

How many years do you want to play it safe??

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

So with 4 picks you need to take some risks.   I will be happy with Upshaw, mcullough, mickey and with 45 a draft and stash or Sg like Anthoney Brown, dez wells that can shoot the three and play tough D.

What are the chances one of Upshaw, Mcullough, Mickey does not work out for us?? Best case, two out of thres or all three wont make us have to worry about getting a rim protector for years to come.

We need to take the risk now

The guys I listed are risks, they just aren't character risks.

RHJ is much more similar to MKG than he is to Crowder. RHJ has elite quickness and athleticism, which Crowder doesn't.

Lyles, isn't that similar to Olynyk. Olynyk played the 5 in college, Lyles played the 3. Olynyk is tall but has a short wingspan, Lyles isn't 7 feet tall but has a much better wingspan.

To be clear, I'm not arguing against Upshaw. I am arguing against Upshaw at 16, because that is taking him ahead of where his consensus value is (at least according to mocks). If he is going to be gone by 28, it makes a lot more sense to try to move up from that spot, than to just select him at 16. Especially when two different credible reporters say that his character concerns are so high that teams are wary of picking him in the first round.

[Tr1boy]

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

At the same time, do we really need a more volatile version of Larry Sanders?

The risk is worth it. Again adding Lyles moves the needle only slightly. Upshaw either does not move it or tips the scale

At 28 , 33 you can take the safer route. 

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

At the same time, do we really need a more volatile version of Larry Sanders?

No, but we need shot blocking and size. I'd just wager the 16th pick that he's going to turn it around, rather have a clean cut boy with little to nothing to offer.

[Tr1boy]

I want danny to risk most of our picks (same draft year) to move up to get the guy

Or take one or two risks to try to find the guy

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?

I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?

Because he will not last at #28. Teams picking before us would need Centers either because their guys are free agents or they have none that can offer much. He fills a need and has good potential, these teams in the mid 20's will not wait for the second round.

[CelticGuardian]

Dustin (Sacramento)

If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?
Chad Ford  (1:50 PM)

Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/51793/nba-insider-chad-ford

A lottery talent as per Chad Ford. That's why you gamble on him. No one is brushing aside his past transgretions, and yes, there is a chance that he may blew it, but again, this is the #16th pick, and one among many other 1st round picks that we have. It's high risk - high reward, but we need to swing on this instead of playing it safe and grabbing someone who has very little star potential compare to Upshaw.

We're not talking about a giant investment here.

Why would we pick him at 16 if their are serious reservations about drafting him in the first round? If he can be had at 28 or 33, why would we draft him at 16?

I agree with swinging for the fences instead of playing it safe, but I would do that with Looney, Oubre, Lyles or even Hollis Jefferson. Why go up so far to get him when we could have him much later?

How many years do you want to play it safe??

Do we really need another KO (lyles), anothrr Crowder (rhj).

They add little to get this team moving fwd. 

So with 4 picks you need to take some risks.   I will be happy with Upshaw, mcullough, mickey and with 45 a draft and stash or Sg like Anthoney Brown, dez wells that can shoot the three and play tough D.

What are the chances one of Upshaw, Mcullough, Mickey does not work out for us?? Best case, two out of thres or all three wont make us have to worry about getting a rim protector for years to come.

We need to take the risk now

The guys I listed are risks, they just aren't character risks.

RHJ is much more similar to MKG than he is to Crowder. RHJ has elite quickness and athleticism, which Crowder doesn't.

Lyles, isn't that similar to Olynyk. Olynyk played the 5 in college, Lyles played the 3. Olynyk is tall but has a short wingspan, Lyles isn't 7 feet tall but has a much better wingspan.

To be clear, I'm not arguing against Upshaw. I am arguing against Upshaw at 16, because that is taking him ahead of where his consensus value is (at least according to mocks). If he is going to be gone by 28, it makes a lot more sense to try to move up from that spot, than to just select him at 16. Especially when two different credible reporters say that his character concerns are so high that teams are wary of picking him in the first round.

We will have to see on draft day, If moving up costs too much... and I believe it will.. let's at least not walk away empty-handed. High risk/reward types is the name of the game. It would be worse to give up assets to get a guy that ends up being a bust than taking a chance with the pick we have.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Upshaw needs to see a therapist and psychiatrist. Maybe he truly needs anxiety meds and anti depressants. Millions of Americans have psych problems and millions have anxiety problems. Boston has great doctors in that field.