Robert Upshaw was suspended twice in his freshman year at Fresno State, before being banished for good after two suspensions didn't get the message through. At the same time, Robert Upshaw was the highest-rated recruit EVER at Fresno State. They beat out schools like Arizona, UCLA, and Louisville for him. To banish him after a year must tell you how much of a bad influence he was. Having a guy like Upshaw around to dominate a smaller conference like the WAC produces the type of success that earns coaches large extensions or jobs at higher-profile schools. That Fresno State decided, in less than a year, that they were better without him says a ton.
The following year, Upshaw landed at Washington. Due to NCAA transfer rules, he had to sit out the season. Halfway through that season, in which he was only allowed to practice, and not play, the coach told him to stay away from the team. Then this year, despite being a completely dominant center, he was again kicked off the team in the middle of the season.
This isn't a player who would be getting a second chance. He arguably wouldn't be getting a third chance. He's literally been kicked off his team three years in a row. NBA coaches don't have time to deal with that sort of nonsense playing 4 games in four cities over five days. Taking him at #16 overall would be pure folly, and at 28 would probably be regrettable.
Also, he's talented, but let's be clear -- even if he didn't get kicked off his team for the second time, he would be lucky to be picked before #10. You're not talking about getting someone with the talent and athleticism of Karl-Anthony Towns but with character flaws. You're talking about getting someone who's around Myles Turner level, but with character flaws. The value simply isn't there at 16 for the outsized risk that he brings with him.
People can change attributes about themselves with due effort. I think Upshaw can be our answer to our rim protection need, he can even shoot a little bit too. At the combine, I didn't see a trace of this terrible kid that everyone is making him out to be, he actually is saying some of the right things when he mentions he's "surrounding himself with the right people", one of those people is no other than Celtics legend, Bill Walton.
Who opened up to Upshaw about his own drug addiction:
http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/will-nba-teams-be-willing-take-chance-robert-upshaw
I think the scene is playing itself out for Upshaw to really be an impact player if he keeps his head straight and off the weed, and that is accomplished by, as Robert said himself, surrounding himself by good influences, namely Brad Stevens. And also if he doesn't let the rookie contract money at #16 fool him into not maximazing his opportunity in the NBA.
It's the draft, there's suppose to be a risk/reward aspect, no player is a sure thing until they place a foot onto the hardwood floor.
Sure, people can change. But its naïve to think that after years of being a Grade-A moron that he's put it all together so much in three months that he's ready to earn $3.7 million in two years and not let it get to his head. I'm rooting for him to succeed, because it sounds like if he weren't really tall and athletic, and people who were really tall and athletic didn't get paid millions to play basketball, he'd be in for a lot of trouble the rest of his life. And I truly hate to see that if anyone. But at the same time, it is about risk-reward, as you said. As the risk goes up, either the reward should too, or the price should go down. From an off-the-court perspective, he is by far the riskiest player. But if he's a top 10 player on the court, he's #10, and not number 5 or even number 7. Accordingly, with that level of risk, the price needs to drop, and dropping to 16 is really still quite overpriced, given the risk that he not only flames out, but hurts team chemistry in the process.
This sounds like the argument to take Royce White all over again. We all saw how well that worked out.
That's just uncalled for, I'm sensing some real disdain for this dude that's borderline irrational. He was let go for smoking weed not because he couldn't hold down a job.
And with that logic, you would think he would want to continue performing and do what is asked of him or else those millions will stop coming his way by his 3rd year. I think even he's smart enough to figure that one out, or else he wouldn't have come to the combine the way he did. He would've just let whoever draft him, draft him and just take THAT pay day... but he isn't looking to do that is he?
I think the irrationalty is coming from your end. He was suspended twice by one scholarship program and then kicked out. He was then suspended by his second program, and then kicked out. There were many reported instances of disruptive behavior at practices. He was not kicked out "just for weed". It takes FOUR positive tests to be dismissed from his school, assuming he cooperated with the post-positive test rules after his first three (meeting with parent of guardian, going to counseling sessions, etc.). That means he either tested positive four times in less than 18 months, or refused to comply with the relativey lenient requirements after positive test 1-3 (there are no mandatory suspensions, for instance). He has yet to show any indication that he's learned from the consequences of his actions. Of course, when he was dismissed, the University said it was for a violation of team rules, which could be drugs or some other behavior. He's said it was weed, but they've remained silent as far as I can tell.
He's not a guy who's made a mistake, or two mistakes, or even three mistakes. He's someone who, for three straight years, made an increasing series of mistakes that got him kicked out of two colleges, despite being the most talented player on the team. That takes a lot of screw-ups, and there's little reason to expect that he's somehow completely changed his life in 3 months just because his agent says so.
So he didn't commit to his school, so what?
He knows this "path to the NBA" game, dude.
Picture yourself in college, but only this time you are the big man on campus at 19 years old... the school makes money when you play, but are they paying you? ... NOPE, so how much are you going to care when the school starts making a fuzz about your habit?
In that circumstance you would think you are untouchable, like what is the school going to do, get rid of their best player?! ... well it just happens that in that same circumstance the school would not leave the ball in the player's court for long(a lot of puns here... where they intended?)...
For you to think his reaction to an NBA franchise that's going to pay him millions, is going to be similar to some college he was just using to display his ball skills shows me where this irrationality stems from.
And like I said

"We all know DeAndre Jordan plays the green tambourine every once in a while, and Celtics fans are literally praying for this dude to come here... wow just wow, these social stigmas in sports."