Paul Millsap:
What Celtics hope Sullinger will be. An undersized, yet consistent force. Can give you 16/7+/3 and hit 3's at 35%. Is he worth a mid-tier max? Probably. But is Millsap the player you want to spend your cap space on. In my opinion he a very good complimentary piece and not a #1 player. Pass if requires max ($18-19M) or near max.
Good player, but a fairly marginal upgrade but again on the wrong side of 30. Any player who is over 30 is nothing more than a fill-in. By the time this team is ready to compete, older guys will be dead weight.
Lamarcus Aldridge is five months younger than Millsap and will be 30 when the season starts. Marc Gasol is two weeks older than Millsap. I place Millsap on the same tier as those players. Signing any of those guys probably leaves the Celtics one high quality role-playing starter away from being a legitimate contender.
Would you say no to Gasol or Aldridge because of their age?
False equivalence. Gasol and Aldridge are better players, bigger players and play a position that's in much greater need.
Milsap is a 6'8" PF who averages 17/8. He's a minor upgrade from Sully, who is about the same size.
Gasol is a 7'1" C who averages 17/8. He's a huge upgrade from Zeller and is a significantly better defensive player.
Aldridge is a 6'11" F/C who averages 23/10. Milsap couldn't hold his jockstrap and is a huge upgrade at either PF or C.
I don't see Milsap as a game changer nor is he in the same class as the other two - talent-wise or position of need.
I absolutely disagree. Millsap is a better player than Aldridge, although I think it is close enough that I wouldn't blame someone for thinking Aldridge is slightly better. The GMs who think that Aldridge is much better than Millsap are the GMs who Ainge should be targeting for trades because they are the ones who will overvalue the wrong players.
Millsap is the better defender and passer. He has a varied offense, being capable of scoring in the post or from the perimeter. As power forwards go, he is one of the best fits out there for the Celtics under Stevens, both in skill set and in attitude/approach to the game.
Of course you disagree. You're the one who brought up the comparison. I disagree with your assertion.
But here's the rub. Most people when asked to name the best players on the Celtics have IT, Smart and Sullinger at the top of the list. Maybe Sully is top 3, maybe he's top 4 - but he's up there. He's also on a cheap rookie contract and has shown improvement. Sure he has flaws with his conditioning and he's been injured, but he has shown some starting-level ability and he's only 23. He and Milsap play the exact same position - one makes the other redundant. So to get Milsap, you are giving up on your 3rd or 4th best player at age 23.
And what does that get you? No doubt Milsap is a better player, but how much better will a 30 year old Milsap be than Sully already is? Do you want to close the door on Sullinger, considering he's now doing the right things to try to get in shape and improve his game
before you have a chance to see how that pans out? As you yourself said, "What Celtics
hope Sullinger will be." That word isn't in past tense. There's actually a fair chance that in 2 or 3 years Sullinger is the better player than a declining Milsap.
Now take Aldridge. Whether or not he's better than Milsap is something we don't agree on. However, we both agree he would be a MASSIVE improvement over our current Centers - a position Sully and Milsap simply can not play. Our best Center put up 10/6 this year. Put in Aldridge and you're
doubling both points and rebounds and he's at least as good on defense.
Are you doubling both points and rebounds by replacing Sullinger with Milsap?
Milsap averaged 4 more points per game than Sullinger with the same rebounds. Aldrige averaged 12/5 more than Zeller. Do you really think that Milsap's defensive prowess and passing - no matter how good - is going to make up for an 8 point, 5 rebound differential? Is Milsap the interior go-to 4th quarter scorer this team so desperately needs?
We're talking bang for the buck here and Aldridge gives you far better bang for the buck than Milsap, simply on the basis of who they would replace in the starting lineup. The same goes for Gasol. Personnel choices are not made in a vacuum. It's all about the way to best improve the team - replacing your weakest link. That link right now is a Center, so if you have a chance to massively improve that position, you take it and don't look back.