Targets: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Wesley Matthews, DAnny Green, Gerald Green

[Celts Fan 508]

@Granath

Millsap is a much better defender and shooter and fits more naturally into BS system IMO.  I would trade Sully to move up in the draft to draft a better wing player after signing Millsap.  However, I agree with your other point as I also don't think he will sign here.

[Granath]

I think that using points and rebounds per game as your main comparisons is the sort of superficial thinking that an analytics-based approach scoffs at.

I also have a heavy skepticism towards Sullinger because I don't trust what's in his head.  I see him as the sort of player who is a huge risk to get it together for one season then get fat and lazy once he gets a big contract.

Main comparisons? Nope. But production is production and while I'm talking about a lot of production, you're offering nothing but a personal opinion. I'll take stats over pulling something out of your ass.

If Sully does "get it together for one season", that's NEXT SEASON. Why wouldn't you want to be the beneficiary of that? The Cs aren't required to tender him an offer after the season.

Again, it's all academic anyway. None of those guys are signing here.

[LooseCannon]

I think that using points and rebounds per game as your main comparisons is the sort of superficial thinking that an analytics-based approach scoffs at.

I also have a heavy skepticism towards Sullinger because I don't trust what's in his head.  I see him as the sort of player who is a huge risk to get it together for one season then get fat and lazy once he gets a big contract.

Main comparisons? Nope. But production is production and while I'm talking about a lot of production, you're offering nothing but a personal opinion. I'll take stats over pulling something out of your ass.

If Sully does "get it together for one season", that's NEXT SEASON. Why wouldn't you want to be the beneficiary of that? The Cs aren't required to tender him an offer after the season.

Again, it's all academic anyway. None of those guys are signing here.

I saving my longer arguments for Millsap for a possible big post on why he should be the Celtics #1 target, depending on how attainable he looks after the Hawks playoff run is over.  (The worse they do, the more attainable he looks.)  For now, I will note that he is the better player according to various advanced metrics such as Real Plus-Minus, WS/48, and VORP.  He has a higher TS% and AST%.

In case you don't understand, I am talking Millsap vs Aldridge, not Millsap vs Sullinger, who is significantly worse than the other two.

[gpap]

Matthews would be a great upgrade on Avery Bradley. Tall for his position, hits the 3 at a good rate and can defend a bit as well.

Good point. Matthews would be a HUGE upgrade over Bradley.

[gpap]

I think that using points and rebounds per game as your main comparisons is the sort of superficial thinking that an analytics-based approach scoffs at.

I also have a heavy skepticism towards Sullinger because I don't trust what's in his head.  I see him as the sort of player who is a huge risk to get it together for one season then get fat and lazy once he gets a big contract.

Main comparisons? Nope. But production is production and while I'm talking about a lot of production, you're offering nothing but a personal opinion. I'll take stats over pulling something out of your ass.

If Sully does "get it together for one season", that's NEXT SEASON. Why wouldn't you want to be the beneficiary of that? The Cs aren't required to tender him an offer after the season.

Again, it's all academic anyway. None of those guys are signing here.

How many more chances are you going to give Sully? He is what he is, a back up role player. Time for an upgrade at the PF position, don't you think?

[Celtics4ever]

If Sully does "get it together for one season", that's NEXT SEASON. Why wouldn't you want to be the beneficiary of that?

That is a huge if and one he has been claiming to do since he has been here.   He still has a poor athletic base and is slow even if he loses pounds.   He was bottom five in athletic ability in his combine.  He has some skills, great hands and good knack for rebounding.  But he said the same crap last year, I hope the light goes off.

Ainge harped on him yesterday saying he has all the tools to take care of his business but it is up to him.   If he does not show progress, I think he is gone.

[Kuberski33]

I'll take the present version of Sully over Jefferson.  Big Al's certainly the better player - but Sully's the better value.

And he's Sully's equal when it comes to defense - i.e. he doesn't play any. 

I do think its time to move on from Sully though. 

[YoungOne87]

@Granath

Millsap is a much better defender and shooter and fits more naturally into BS system IMO.  I would trade Sully to move up in the draft to draft a better wing player after signing Millsap.  However, I agree with your other point as I also don't think he will sign here.

since when is Millsap a better shooter than aldridge?
Aldridge is one of the best midrange bigs in the league and even shot the 3 ball at 35 % this season, also a much better free throw shooter

[Celts Fan 508]

@Granath

Millsap is a much better defender and shooter and fits more naturally into BS system IMO.  I would trade Sully to move up in the draft to draft a better wing player after signing Millsap.  However, I agree with your other point as I also don't think he will sign here.

since when is Millsap a better shooter than aldridge?
Aldridge is one of the best midrange bigs in the league and even shot the 3 ball at 35 % this season, also a much better free throw shooter

One of the best stats for shooting percentage is eFG% which is the Effective Field Goal Percentage (it adjusts to FG% factoring in that a 3pointer is worth 1 more point than a 2).  Aldridge had a .479% this season while Millsap had a .518%, Aldridge has been shooting the 3 pointer much better this season but is a career .276% shooter from there in his career while Millsap is a career .340% shooter from beyond the arc.  Aldridge is the better Free Throw shooter, I agree with you there.

Millsap with his passing, defense, and ability to spread the floor would be the better fit IMO.  I agree with Granath though, its all academic we are not getting either of those players. 

[crimson_stallion]

Paul Millsap:

What Celtics hope Sullinger will be.  An undersized, yet consistent force.  Can give you 16/7+/3 and hit 3's at 35%.  Is he worth a mid-tier max? Probably.  But is Millsap the player you want to spend your cap space on.  In my opinion he a very good complimentary piece and not a #1 player.  Pass if requires max ($18-19M) or near max.

Good player, but a fairly marginal upgrade but again on the wrong side of 30. Any player who is over 30 is nothing more than a fill-in. By the time this team is ready to compete, older guys will be dead weight.

Lamarcus Aldridge is five months younger than Millsap and will be 30 when the season starts.  Marc Gasol is two weeks older than Millsap.  I place Millsap on the same tier as those players.  Signing any of those guys probably leaves the Celtics one high quality role-playing starter away from being a legitimate contender.

Would you say no to Gasol or Aldridge because of their age?

I'd say no to Gasol, I'd say yes to Aldridge, I'd say maybe to Milsap (but not for a max contract).

Why Aldridge over Milsap? 

Put simply, Aldridge is on a whole other level as a player.  He has just put together his third straight season averaging 21 and 9 or better - Millsap in his entire career has never averaged 18 points or 9 rebounds for a season.

Why Aldridge over Gasol? 

Pretty much the same reason.  Gasol, prior to this season, has never averaged more than 14.6 PPG.  I know he gets a boost in value because of his defence, but this team always seems to end up with 14 - 15 PPG guys (Avery Bradley, Sully, Jeff Green, etc) and if you're getting that from a complimentary player on a good contract then that's great...but when you're getting that from a guy you're paying $20M+ and who is too old to develop any further, to then it's not good enough.

Having 30-something year old guys on a team like this doesn't make any sense unless they are legit superstars who can carry the team offensively.  I can accept young guys (like Monroe) because they're still young and have potential you have the benefit of potential. 

Millsap is a guy that I'd like to have IF you get play him at SF because we desperately need an upgrade at that position.  But the problem with Millsap is he's likely to command a max contract (or close to it) and while he is a good player, I don't think he's THAT good - especially not for a team like this.  I think giving Millsap a max contract is the definition of overpaying for mid tier talent.  I think Id pay 12M for Millsap - maybe $14M at the most, but that's pushing it.  Like Gasol he's more of a complimentary player rather than a guy who's going to put your team on his shoulders and carry you.

Aldridge is that guy who can carry you.  He's the guy who can completely transform a bad offensive team like ours, and he is unquestionably the type of talent who could elevate us from  a first round sweep team, to a team that would go 2 or 3 rounds deep.  To me, that makes a max contract worthwhile.

 

[crimson_stallion]

@Granath

Millsap is a much better defender and shooter and fits more naturally into BS system IMO.  I would trade Sully to move up in the draft to draft a better wing player after signing Millsap.  However, I agree with your other point as I also don't think he will sign here.

since when is Millsap a better shooter than aldridge?
Aldridge is one of the best midrange bigs in the league and even shot the 3 ball at 35 % this season, also a much better free throw shooter

One of the best stats for shooting percentage is eFG% which is the Effective Field Goal Percentage (it adjusts to FG% factoring in that a 3pointer is worth 1 more point than a 2).  Aldridge had a .479% this season while Millsap had a .518%, Aldridge has been shooting the 3 pointer much better this season but is a career .276% shooter from there in his career while Millsap is a career .340% shooter from beyond the arc.  Aldridge is the better Free Throw shooter, I agree with you there.

Millsap with his passing, defense, and ability to spread the floor would be the better fit IMO.  I agree with Granath though, its all academic we are not getting either of those players.

The problem with Millsap is his tweener status.  Do you play him at SF or PF?  If you put him at PF you get the same problem as Bass - too small to defender bigger PFs and not enough rebounding.

If you put him at SF then that's a much better scenario (especially since we so desperately need a starting calibre SF) but then I wonder...is he a good enough shooter to strive at the DF spot?  Maybe.  I know that he's an excellent midrange shooter (close to Bass' level) and that he's a decent three point shooter.  He'd give you a nice defensive option when going against guys like Lebron.  I still struggle to see how this team scores enough points in crunch time when you have a guy like Millsap as your best player though.

Aldridge's game is very impressive, but a key factor is size.  Aldridge is a big guy - he's got great height and length.  Teams like Cleveleand (who lack size) would have no trouble defending a PF like Millsap, but LMA makes for a far more difficult matchup. Even Boston (with a guy like Bass) could do a decent job defending Millsap, but again LMA would tear us apart.  If you have a guy with Aldridge's size and skill, then the only opposing teams that can slow a guy like that down would be teams like the Clippers (Jordan), Grizzlies (Gasol), Bulls (Gasol/Noah), Spurs (Duncan), etc. 

Skilled size is a difference maker in this league - just ask last seasons Miami Heat how well they handled Mr Timmy. 

[crimson_stallion]

Edit: Double Post

[SHAQATTACK]

We aren't hard up enough to want Big Al on a young rebuilding team......I'll take Sully everyday over old broken down AL .

[Celtics4ever]

What Celtics hope Sullinger will be.  An undersized, yet consistent force.  Can give you 16/7+/3 and hit 3's at 35%.

Sadly he is hitting 3's for .28% and can't stay in front of his man.  I think presently Big Baby comparisons are more apt than Paul Milsap.

.I'll take Sully everyday over old broken down AL .

This makes zero sense, do you even realize Sully's health broke down his year?  He had a stress fracture and that is breaking down.  Not mentioned the team was on a roll until he returned.  Now I am not blaming him for our playful woes, we were outmatched.  But his return was ill timed.  I actually thought he might help us in that matchup.

Also, Big Al is better statistically.  Ideally it will be neither of them.

[PhoSita]

I'd be happy with Paul Millsap.  The other names don't seem worth it.