NBA Draft / Tanking - by the numbers

[Joe Green]

Being a math geek, I decided to conduct a very superficial analysis of the chance of landing a star based on NBA draft position. I am sure this has been done many times before, but here is my "study" + conclusions:

1. I analyzed all the NBA drafts from 2001 - 2012 and counted players who appeared in at least one ASG. (2013 / 2014 really too early to tell...). I only looked at first round selection since picking an allstar in the 2nd is very rare and more due to luck than anything.

2. On average, each draft produced exactly 4.0 allstars (2003 has 7, 2012 had only 2 although that may rise in a year or two).

3. 70% of the 1 place picks were allstars. The drop is huge to 2nd where it is about 1 in 4 players, and stays that way for spots 3,4,5 & 6 then drops and spikes up again to 30%+ in the 9th and 10th spots. On average, the 2nd to 10th sports therefore have a 25% (1 in 4) chance of being an Allstar


4. After the 10th spot, the numbers no longer behave linearly with allstars popping up pretty much at every spot ( a huge spike in 17th spot for no reason). This is most likely due to the small sample size - but still is seems chances of landing an allstar past 10th spot are about 5.5% (1 in 19)

5. Spots 11-20 are only slightly better than 21-30 (6% vs. 4.5%)

What does it mean? Not that much. Assuming Allstars are what you are looking for (plenty of great players who were not allstars, and plenty of allstarts who were not great players) getting the top pick is great but even IF you tank like a Mofo it is only a 1 in 4 chance at best.

Getting top 6 picks is more reasonable, and you will land an allstar for every 4 picks. Top 10 is still good, but beyond that it is a crapshoot. There is little statistical difference between getting a late lottery pick and a late 1st pick.

The most important thing in the lottery is NOT luck but skill. In 7 of the 12 drafts, there was an allstar past the lottely. It takes supreme talent to find the gems, but there are Rudy Goberts, Danny Grangers, Tony Parkers, Zach Randolphs and even Rajon Rondos to be had in almost ANY draft.

I feel Danny is just the guy to find these gems and personally love the fact that we are in the playoffs. I would love an Mulinday or Okafor on next year's team, but couldn't care less if we pick 12th or 18th... Just my 2 cents 

[Joe Green]

Come on. No love for the math nerd? 

[PhoSita]

They've got some good charts to this effect over on Wages of Wins, I believe.  The bottom line more or less backs up what you'd expect.  The #1 overall pick is more likely than not to turn into at least an All-Star.  The rest of the picks in the top 10 give you a shot at getting a very good player, but they are not a sure thing.  After the top 10, it's almost random through the rest of the 1st round.

Getting the top overall pick, or at least a top 3 pick, is the only decent-percentage way of getting a really good player.  This is the root of Philadelphia's strategy, of course (not trying to derail this thread into another Philly discussion). 

If you can't get a top pick, picking in the top 10 is the best way to secure a nice asset through the draft.  After that, you shouldn't worry too much about where your pick falls in the 1st round.

[Joe Green]

So essentially - just missing the playoff is the WORST possible outcome. It's either tank like a Mofo or play to win.

Also - the fact is there are always good to great players to be had even late in the 1st round. If you have Spurs caliber executives, you know how to find them.

[chambers]

TP.
Yeah you should check out wages of wins, it's great.

The hardest part about getting people to understand the value of top 3, top 5 and top 10 picks is taking their focus off of the losing that's often associated with acquiring those picks.
People's logic is clouded by the idea that if you get a top 5 pick, you're probably tanking and that's just wrong. Of course there's nothing wrong with that moral philosophy.

But if you take away the losing and scum, a top 5 pick is so incredibly valuable towards your chances at becoming an NBA champion or just having a real shot at getting to the conference finals.

I would love to know what we'd have to give up to get someone like Mudiay, Russell or Winslow out of our asset collection.

Anyway TP man, appreciate the read.

[Joe Green]

TP.
Yeah you should check out wages of wins, it's great.

The hardest part about getting people to understand the value of top 3, top 5 and top 10 picks is taking their focus off of the losing that's often associated with acquiring those picks.
People's logic is clouded by the idea that if you get a top 5 pick, you're probably tanking and that's just wrong. Of course there's nothing wrong with that moral philosophy.

But if you take away the losing and scum, a top 5 pick is so incredibly valuable towards your chances at becoming an NBA champion or just having a real shot at getting to the conference finals.

I would love to know what we'd have to give up to get someone like Mudiay, Russell or Winslow out of our asset collection.

Anyway TP man, appreciate the read.

Here is a list of allstars drafted outside the lottery in 2007 - 2011:
Marc Gasol (47)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Goran Dragic (45)
Jrue Holiday (17)
Jeff Teague (19)
Jimmy Butler (30)

Top 10 picks are great, but we were never going to get a top 10 pick if you hire Brad Stevens and let him build his team. Even before drafting Isiah Thomas (our first "anti-tank" move of the year) we were getting better by subtracting Rondo and Green who were obviously not buying into Stevens' system.

Anyone upset about us making the playoffs must comprehend - we are most likely talking about the difference between draping no higher than 12 or no lower than 18. Statistically - that makes very little difference in our chances of landing a star.

[BornReady]

I also analysed all drafts up to 2006 but included 2nd round
and came to the same conclusion
That is why I don't mind us being at 15-16th this year

Also a lot guys in the lottery outside the top 6 seem kind of overrated (okafor, towns, mudiay, Russell, Johnson, hezonja)
I can see a lot of flags about the other guys projected to go in the lottery that would make me second guess picking them

The bottom first round and top second round looks good (I hope we get either Kevin looney, trey lyles,  Christian wood, rondae hollis- Jefferson, George Lucas, dakari Johnson, or guirellmo hernangomez)

[BornReady]

However a lot of the franchise superstars that are needed to become a contender are found in the lottery
Guys like Anthony Davis,  Westbrook, durant, Paul George, Chris Paul, Stephen curry, James harden
Are all found at the top

It is very rare to get this type of all star player outside of the lottery
E.g. Greek freak looks like he could be one, Kawhi Leonard, Marc gasol, tony Parker

Most all stars picked out of the lottery tend to only be stars (2 or 3rd parts of a big 3)
E.g. Jrue holiday, rondo, jimmy butler
which result in becoming a mediocre team and usually end up out of the playoffs out of the first and second round

[Joe Green]

However a lot of the franchise superstars that are needed to become a contender are found in the lottery
Guys like Anthony Davis,  Westbrook, durant, Paul George, Chris Paul, Stephen curry, James harden
Are all found at the top

It is very rare to get this type of all star player outside of the lottery
E.g. Greek freak looks like he could be one, Kawhi Leonard, Marc gasol, tony Parker

Most all stars picked out of the lottery tend to only be stars (2 or 3rd parts of a big 3)
E.g. Jrue holiday, rondo, jimmy butler
which result in becoming a mediocre team and usually end up out of the playoffs out of the first and second round

You are partially correct. Paul George was picked 10th, others in the top 10, but your odds of picking a allstar outside of the top pick are 1 in 4 in the top 10 (much less for a superstar who plays multiple ASG). Gianis and Gobert who could both be superstars were picked in the 10-20 range.

Obviously, higher picks are better - my point was that if you are not a supertanker (philly) missing the playoffs is not worth the tiny bump in chances of picking a star. Also - GM skill is far more crucial. The spurs picked 3 superstars (Parker, Leonard and Manu) all outside of the lottery.

Imagine we had Gobert as our Center. I would say we would be top 3 in the East next year...