Playoff vs. Tanking Debate & 1st Round Opponent

[jmen788]

From the start I have definitely been a proponent of trying to get a top 10 pick. Clearly that isn't happening, and even if we miss the playoffs we will have pick 12, so at this point, I do want to make the playoffs, BUT with a caveat...

...specifically, that caveat is that we manipulate things so we play the Hawks in round 1.

That way, we obviously avoid the Cavs in round 1, and wouldn't need to play them until round 3. And the truth is, I think we can beat ANY team in the playoffs OTHER than the Cavs.

The reasoning behind my thought is that one of the arguments against a top 10 pick is that if we make the playoffs and show that we're an up and coming team, that it could attract FAs here (as well as improve our assets and the morale of our own young players).

If that argument is true, it would ONLY BE TRUE if we won a series or two, which I think is possible vs the Hawks. BUT vs the Cavs (who nearly beat us the other night without Irving and resting James and Love for large spurts) we would be swept or if lucky lose in 5, in which case the opposite would happen and instead of being viewed as young and up and coming, we'd be viewed as a team that shouldn't have been there that needs A LOT of work.

What do you guys think... thoughts?

[PhoSita]

Honestly, the Hawks might beat the Celts more handily than the Cavs.  The Celts have not been good at handling teams that can spread them out really well.

[rondohondo]

Honestly, the Hawks might beat the Celts more handily than the Cavs.  The Celts have not been good at handling teams that can spread them out really well.

Irving , Love , Miller are all good-great shooters, so is Lebron

I take my chances with Bass,Crowder and Jerebko sticking with Millsap, Sully and Zellar against Horford.

Also our perimeter defense can deal with Korver and Teague better than Lebron and Irving obviously.

[Donoghus]

The tank debate is dead.  It's over.  It's not happening with this team.

Enjoy the playoff basketball (hopefullly).  This is a scrappy bunch.  I don't expect them to make it out of the first round but I do expect them to give some team some hell.  Possibly stretch a series to six which I think could be more likely with ATL. They'll be fun to watch if nothing else.

[PhoSita]

Honestly, the Hawks might beat the Celts more handily than the Cavs.  The Celts have not been good at handling teams that can spread them out really well.

Irving , Love , Miller are all good-great shooters, so is Lebron

I take my chances with Bass,Crowder and Jerebko sticking with Millsap, Sully and Zellar against Horford.

Also our perimeter defense can deal with Korver and Teague better than Lebron and Irving obviously.

I disagree on that last point, actually.

I don't think we have anybody who can really cover Kyle Korver, and Teague, while not as good a shooter as Kyrie, is an elite penetrator.


In any case, either team will absolutely rock our team of misfit role players.  So it doesn't really matter.

[rondohondo]

Honestly, the Hawks might beat the Celts more handily than the Cavs.  The Celts have not been good at handling teams that can spread them out really well.

Irving , Love , Miller are all good-great shooters, so is Lebron

I take my chances with Bass,Crowder and Jerebko sticking with Millsap, Sully and Zellar against Horford.

Also our perimeter defense can deal with Korver and Teague better than Lebron and Irving obviously.

I disagree on that last point, actually.

I don't think we have anybody who can really cover Kyle Korver, and Teague, while not as good a shooter as Kyrie, is an elite penetrator.


In any case, either team will absolutely rock our team of misfit role players.  So it doesn't really matter.

Disagree, I think Jerebko is a perfect defender to put on Korver, has the size and athletic ability to stick with him and get his long arms up to contest Korver's 3's . Bradley and smart will be needed to slow down Teague. I'd rather have Jerebko and Turner/Crowder trying to stick with Korver, along with Smart who has more size than Bradley .

[LarBrd33]

The tank debate is dead.  It's over.  It's not happening with this team.

Enjoy the playoff basketball (hopefullly).  This is a scrappy bunch.  I don't expect them to make it out of the first round but I do expect them to give some team some hell.  Possibly stretch a series to six which I think could be more likely with ATL. They'll be fun to watch if nothing else.

I've been on board with the playoff push for a couple months.   After the roster cleaned up and we stopped playing two 6'1 guards next to three power forwards, it made the games a lot easier to watch.

I was only ever super passionate about tanking last year when it looked like we were having a historically deep draft with at least 8 guys who could make an impact.   Smart, while offensively challenged, has certainly made an impact.  We were better having tanked than not having tanked... and we had a really really good chance to land a transcendent star like Wiggins, Parker or Embiid.  Had to do it.  Had to tank.

This year... whatever.  Making the playoffs and setting up a culture of winning is fine.  I'd still argue that "winning atmosphere" is entirely irrelevant when it comes to free agents.  Talent is what matters.  Players want to play with other talented players.  In 2012, a plucky young 8th seed Philly team almost made the ECF.  It didn't make much of an impact on their future.  They were out of the playoffs a year later and bottoming out a year after that.  Alternatively, Boston finished with one of the worst records in the league in 2007, but as soon as they landed Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett decided he was willing to accept a trade to Boston.  Talent attracts talent. 

But this is fine.  Ainge will figure something out.  And if he doesn't, we'll be right back here next season trying to claw for a late playoff spot and first round curb stomp. 

[Mass_1081]

 I'd rather have a lottery pick then watch this team get swept by the Cavs, that doesn't mean I'm not going to enjoy watching them in the playoffs. Even if a star becomes available in trade we are still lacking a big chip to use in a trade. People are talking like the Brooklyn picks are gaurenteed to be lottery, that making the playoffs will entice free agents, that we actually have the chips to land Cousins, it's just not true.

[Mass_1081]

The tank debate is dead.  It's over.  It's not happening with this team.

Enjoy the playoff basketball (hopefullly).  This is a scrappy bunch.  I don't expect them to make it out of the first round but I do expect them to give some team some hell.  Possibly stretch a series to six which I think could be more likely with ATL. They'll be fun to watch if nothing else.

I've been on board with the playoff push for a couple months.   After the roster cleaned up and we stopped playing two 6'1 guards next to three power forwards, it made the games a lot easier to watch.

I was only ever super passionate about tanking last year when it looked like we were having a historically deep draft with at least 8 guys who could make an impact.   Smart, while offensively challenged, has certainly made an impact.  We were better having tanked than not having tanked... and we had a really really good chance to land a transcendent star like Wiggins, Parker or Embiid.  Had to do it.  Had to tank.

This year... whatever.  Making the playoffs and setting up a culture of winning is fine.  I'd still argue that "winning atmosphere" is entirely irrelevant when it comes to free agents.  Talent is what matters.  Players want to play with other talented players.  In 2012, a plucky young 8th seed Philly team almost made the ECF.  It didn't make much of an impact on their future.  They were out of the playoffs a year later and bottoming out a year after that.  Alternatively, Boston finished with one of the worst records in the league in 2007, but as soon as they landed Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett decided he was willing to accept a trade to Boston.  Talent attracts talent. 

But this is fine.  Ainge will figure something out.  And if he doesn't, we'll be right back here next season trying to claw for a late playoff spot and first round curb stomp.

 The 2013 Bucks were a very similar team to ours, they made the eight spot with a losing record. They also had a lot of cap room, but they couldn't sign anyone in the offseason. Their best player actually left them, and they became one of the worst teams in the league. I'm not saying the Celtics will follow the same path, just that the winning culture thing is over-rated, unless you have all your prices in place.

[ScoobyDoo]

Ah, the coveted 7th seed match up versus the NBA's hottest team with a trio of superstars and the equally coveted 17th pick in the draft - couldn't ask for more than that...

I'd would have much rather preferred a higher lottery pick, something in the 9-12 range (actually I wanted to go all in with the tank this year for a top five talent...), giving us a real shot at a possible impact player and THEN moved on to acquiring additional vet talent via trade and free agency but. I really thought this was the year for us to get a shot at the "transcendent talent" via the draft but that's for Philly and the Lakers. Our prize is the Cavs and the 17th. 

I can't say I don't enjoy watching the team and I will root like hell for them and get completely wrapped emotionally as they get trounced in the first round but  as LarBrd33 said, I do have confidence that Ainge will figure something out via trade or free agency.

That said, it is always easier to figure something out if you also have a Karl Towns level draft talent in your hand...

Ultimately, I am excited about Stevens, our current group and the direction of the franchise, the culture, the style of play.

[Rondo9]

The tank debate is dead.  It's over.  It's not happening with this team.

Enjoy the playoff basketball (hopefullly).  This is a scrappy bunch.  I don't expect them to make it out of the first round but I do expect them to give some team some hell.  Possibly stretch a series to six which I think could be more likely with ATL. They'll be fun to watch if nothing else.

I've been on board with the playoff push for a couple months.   After the roster cleaned up and we stopped playing two 6'1 guards next to three power forwards, it made the games a lot easier to watch.

I was only ever super passionate about tanking last year when it looked like we were having a historically deep draft with at least 8 guys who could make an impact.   Smart, while offensively challenged, has certainly made an impact.  We were better having tanked than not having tanked... and we had a really really good chance to land a transcendent star like Wiggins, Parker or Embiid.  Had to do it.  Had to tank.

This year... whatever.  Making the playoffs and setting up a culture of winning is fine.  I'd still argue that "winning atmosphere" is entirely irrelevant when it comes to free agents.  Talent is what matters.  Players want to play with other talented players.  In 2012, a plucky young 8th seed Philly team almost made the ECF.  It didn't make much of an impact on their future.  They were out of the playoffs a year later and bottoming out a year after that.  Alternatively, Boston finished with one of the worst records in the league in 2007, but as soon as they landed Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett decided he was willing to accept a trade to Boston.  Talent attracts talent. 

But this is fine.  Ainge will figure something out.  And if he doesn't, we'll be right back here next season trying to claw for a late playoff spot and first round curb stomp.

 The 2013 Bucks were a very similar team to ours, they made the eight spot with a losing record. They also had a lot of cap room, but they couldn't sign anyone in the offseason. Their best player actually left them, and they became one of the worst teams in the league. I'm not saying the Celtics will follow the same path, just that the winning culture thing is over-rated, unless you have all your prices in place.

Did they have young players, tons of draft picks and a Gm and Coach dedicated to winning?

[Celtics18]

I don't really care whether we face the Hawks or the Cavs.  I just want to see us stay competitive, a feat which I think is entirely possible. 

[chambers]

I would much rather see the Hawks in the first round.
They rely so much on their three point shooting that if they go cold or start buckling under playoff pressure we could steal a few games from them.
Thabo Sefalosha also broke his ankle in the NYC nightclub scuffle recently which will definitely hurt their depth.
I would also start Crowder instead of Turner to guard Korver until he takes a rest, then bring Turner in to work on their 2nd unit with IT.

The Cavs are very hot lately, and any chance you get to avoid the best player in the world, you take it. Let some other teams beat him up a bit, get him a bit sore/injured and then let us spread the ball around the perimeter and hope to get hot for a few games.

We still have to get into the playoffs because Indiana beat OKC.

Celtics play Toronto and the Bucks.
Indiana plays the Wizards and Grizz
Brooklyn plays the Bulls and Magic

We are one game ahead of both teams.

Whether we make the playoffs or not could ultimately come down to whether or not the Wizards and Grizz rest their starters vs the Pacers and the Bulls rest theirs vs the Nets.

Unfortunately for us, the Lowry and Amir Johnson will be back for the Raptors trying to get some game time in before the playoffs, and the Bucks will be trying to prepare for a playoff run too. The good news is we have the upper hand after Cleveland waived the white flag to us already.

If we win one of our last two games, we should be fine. Fingers crossed.

The (half) good news is that if we somehow miss the playoffs, we will have the 11th or 12th pick because the Western Conference teams that miss the playoffs will have a better record than us.

[BDeCosta26]

Last year, a plucky Charlotte team with a losing record fought there way to the playoffs, got some national attention and while being swept in 4 games by a LBJ led Heat team, managed to sign Lance Stephenson, one of last years premier FA's, on a reasonable deal because he saw an opportunity to join an improving team that he thought he could be a major piece for towards helping them get better. I know a lot of people have strong feelings about Stephenson and yeah, It blew up in their faces, but that doesn't take away from the fact they managed to sign one of the top FA's available on the back of a playoff appearance. It can go both ways. Just a little food for thought.

Plus, I think following that logic, we're more attractive than they were. We have money to spend, one of the game's best GM's, a very well regarded coach who has proven this season he can maximize his players talents, and a core group of guys who play together and want to win. Plus all the assets Ainge has accumulated and his track record give good reason to believe were on the rise. The guys we have like playing here, they've bought into what Stevens is doing here and I'd bet they'll use whatever connections they have around the league to get more talent to join them. Not that that's a guarantee or anything, but it's not as if we backed into the playoffs with a bunch of mediocre 30 year olds. I like our chances for a FA, or at least a big addition, now better than I did before we traded Rondo and JG.

One thing to think about with the tanking debate I mentioned earlier. As we get closer to draft day and we hear more and more people say "Ainge screwed us by not tanking for a top pick" it's important to remember that DA made the trades he needed to make. Rondo and Green were not going to be core players in the Celtics future, he got good returns for them, and turned the team over to Stevens. CBS proceeded to turn the guys left over into a much better basketball team. We started winning games we used to lose, real progress showed itself and the players totally bought in to what Stevens was selling them. Even without the IT trade we wouldn't have picked better than like 8th, and DA wouldn't trash all the good work Stevens has done for that. Stevens is one of the best assets we have and he's thoroughly proved it this season. If we forced Stevens to lose games on purpose and miss a chance at the playoffs for a slightly higher pick Stevens would be on the next bus to Indiana.

[crimson_stallion]

I agree with the last post - making the playoffs may not seem like much of a tangible benefit, but from an intangible / emotional point of view I think it adds a huge amount of value.

Look at Kevin Love's situation - he played in Minnesota for years and never made the playoffs, and he used that as his primary reason for no wanting to return.  If that Minnesota team actually made the playoffs for those final two seasons of his contract, then would he have re-signed there?  Maybe.

For the guys on a team, making the playoffs is a milestone.  If you have a bunch of young guys and you finish bottom 10 every year, you get sick of losing.  You feel like you put in all that effort, and you aren't even remotely competitive.  Feels like a wasted effort.  Eventually after a few years of that, you want to move on. 

If you make the playoffs, you get a chance to at least taste success.  You've managed to finish in the top 8 in your conference - you've won enough games to feel like you've been competitive.  Even if you get swept out of the first round, you've achieved something.  You get confident.  You start thinking "maybe if we add one key piece, we can win a round".  When you taste success it's addictive, and you want to have more and more success. 

Aside from that, you earn trust and respect for your staff and teammates.  To make the playoffs, you have to win at least a few tight games - you need to beat at least a couple of tough teams at some point.  You have to have different guys step up at some point or other, and when your coach tells you "we can do this" you actually believe it, because the last time he told you that you could do it (make the playoffs) it happened.  It brings guys together emotionally. 

Imagine how much more motivated Charlotte must have been when they started this season.  Yeah that failed and struggled, but they never entered the season feeling like they were underdogs - they had earned respect, the felt confident that if they tried they could get further.

I am a firm believer that you never want to promote a losing culture, especially with a group of young prospects - you don't want your youth developing around that type of culture.