1
Karl-Anthony TownsCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-11WT: 250POS: C
2014-15 STATSPPG 10.3RPG 6.7BPG 2.3
NBA scouts came very close to getting the matchup they've pined for all season: Towns vs. Jahlil Okafor in the NCAA championship game. Alas, Kentucky fell to Wisconsin in the Final Four, meaning the next time we see these two go head-to-head will be in the NBA. Towns did just enough in the tournament, especially in a big game against Notre Dame, to push ahead of Okafor for the top spot on our Big Board. He's been making that push up the board for the past two months, with more and more NBA teams defecting from Okafor's bandwagon onto Towns'.
Now that the season is over, assuming Towns declares for the draft, he's got the edge over Okafor for the No. 1 pick. He's more athletic, a better rim-protector and a much better free throw shooter. Okafor is more polished offensively, but that's the only real edge he has right now. In virtually every scenario on our Lottery Mock Draft, Towns is now going No. 1.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 2 | PLAYER CARD
2
Jahlil OkaforCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-11WT: 275POS: C
2014-15 STATSPPG 17.3RPG 8.5BPG 1.4
Okafor's stock slid a bit this past month, despite the fact he and three other freshmen just led the Blue Devils to a national title. After a dominant first weekend, when he dropped 21 points on Robert Morris and 26 points on San Diego State, he cooled down considerably. He had 10 or fewer points in three of the Blue Devils' four final tourney games, including 10 points and just three rebounds in 22 minutes versus Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin. Foul trouble plagued Okafor in the title game, but so did his inability to guard the quicker, more agile Kaminsky. He did hit two key buckets for Duke down the stretch, however.
But most of this tournament talk doesn't matter. Okafor is still the most polished offensive big man in the country. Towns has the distinct edge over Okafor for the No. 1 pick, but there are scenarios in which Okafor goes No. 1. He's unlikely to fall past No. 3.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 1 | PLAYER CARD
3
Emmanuel MudiayCOLLEGE: ChinaHT: 6-5WT: 196POS: PG
Mudiay's China experience is over. He's back in Dallas and beginning to prep for the draft. He likely won't work out anywhere until the draft lottery is decided in mid-May and even then it probably will be with only three or four teams. Several teams that will likely pick early, such as the Knicks and Sixers, have him ranked very high on their boards. Unless his workouts are awful, his draft range is very solidly No. 2 to 4.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 3 | PLAYER CARD
4
D'Angelo RussellCOLLEGE: Ohio StateHT: 6-5WT: 176POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 19.3RPG 5.7APG 5
Russell went out of the NCAA tournament with a whimper against Arizona in the second round, and from the sound of things, might have damaged his draft stock. Facing an elite wing defender in Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Russell's lack of explosive athleticism and quickness were evident. While he has an incredible shooting touch and excellent floor vision, NBA front offices put a high value on superior athletic skills. Russell has just about everything else, but he does lack the pop several other top players on our board have. Look for him to be drafted in the Nos. 3-to-6 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 4 | PLAYER CARD
5
Kristaps PorzingisCOLLEGE: LatviaHT: 6-11WT: 220POS: PF
10.3 PPG | 4.6 RPG | 34 percent 3FG | 21 MPG
Porzingis continues to be the most underrated player in the draft. The buzz stateside is almost non-existent, but virtually every scout and GM who makes the trip to Spain comes back raving. A number of them were there to see his team, Sevilla, play FC Barcelona in late March. Porzingis had 18 points, five rebounds and shot 2-for-4 from 3-point range in the game. While he's likely going to land in the Nos. 4-to-7 range, there are a couple of teams that believe Porzingis is the best prospect in the draft after Towns and Mudiay.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 5 | PLAYER CARD
6
Justise WinslowCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-6WT: 222POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 12.6RPG 6.5APG 2.1
No one did more in the tournament to help his stock than Winslow. He nearly averaged a double-double in the tournament, shot 7-for-12 from beyond the arc, had 10 blocks and nine steals and cemented his status as the toughest, highest-motor prospect at the top of the draft. While he didn't have a dominant offensive performance in the title game (11 points on 3-for-9 shooting), he was the difference defensively for the Blue Devils, giving both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes fits while recording four steals and three blocks. His stock has risen to the point that he's now in the Nos. 3-to-7 range in the draft. There are even a couple of teams that have him rated ahead of Okafor on their draft boards.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 10 | PLAYER CARD
7
Willie Cauley-SteinCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 7-0WT: 240POS: C
2014-15 STATSPPG 8.9RPG 6.4BPG 1.7
Cauley-Stein had a disappointing performance (2 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks) against Wisconsin in the Final Four. Cauley-Stein's detractors can easily point to this game to show how much he still struggles to score and how his laid-back approach can even hurt his amazing defensive potential. His fans will point out that he can completely take over the game with his defensive prowess, and although he's a major work in progress offensively, his defensive potential is so high that he's worth the risk. He should land in the Nos. 6-to-12 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 7 | PLAYER CARD
8
Mario HezonjaCOLLEGE: CroatiaHT: 6-7WT: 200POS: SF
8.4 PPG | 2.0 RPG | 42 percent 3FG | 16 MPG
Hezonja's playing time has been up and down in the past month. Scouts were frustrated when they flew to Spain to see Barcelona take on Sevilla, only to see Hezonja play just six minutes and score zero points. However, in a Euroleague game a few nights later against Real Madrid, Hezonja got 16 minutes and made the most of it, scoring 15 points on 5-for-6 shooting from 3-point range. Hezonja may have lost some ground the past month to Winslow in the quest to be the first wing off the board, but he still looks like a lock for a top-10 pick, and according to most NBA scouts and GMs, should be the second wing off the board after Winslow.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 8 | PLAYER CARD
9
Myles TurnerCOLLEGE: TexasHT: 7-0WT: 240POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 10.1RPG 6.5BPG 2.6
Turner, like Looney, remains mired in the potential-versus-production debate but with one interesting twist: A number of scouts and GMs are still convinced that the awkward way he runs is either masking a hidden injury or will lead to one. Until their doctors get a great look at Turner at the draft combine, it's a little tough to peg his draft stock. His length, ability to protect the rim and his shooting prowess all scream lottery pick. His lack of strength and his inconsistency are major question marks. I think that like Looney, he's in the Nos. 7-to-14 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 9 | PLAYER CARD
10
Kevon LooneyCOLLEGE: UCLAHT: 6-10WT: 210POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 11.6RPG 9.2BPG .9
Kevin Pelton and I broke down Looney's production-versus-potential question. Needless to say, there's a general split among NBA scouts about where he should be drafted. The potential crowd has him in the Nos. 5-to-10 range. The production crowd has him in the Nos. 10-to-20 range. Luckily for Looney, there are more ambitious GMs and scouts in the potential group than the production group, and I think his draft range is currently somewhere between Nos. 7 and 14.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 6 | PLAYER CARD
11
Stanley JohnsonCOLLEGE: ArizonaHT: 6-7WT: 237POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 13.8RPG 6.5APG 1.7
Johnson's tournament was solid, just like his season. He clearly has an NBA body, shot the ball better this season than anyone could've hoped, and when he dials in defensively, he looks to be a strong two-way player in the pros. But NBA scouts think Winslow is a better athlete and has an even better motor. They think both Hezonja and Kansas' Kelly Oubre will be better shooters long term. Johnson is stuck somewhere in between: the guy who does just about everything well but lacks that one elite skill. Still, I think there's almost no way he falls out of the lottery. He could go as high as No. 6, but I think the range is more likely Nos. 8 to 14.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 12 | PLAYER CARD
12
Kelly OubreCOLLEGE: KansasHT: 6-7WT: 204POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 9.3RPG 5APG .8
It will be interesting to see if Oubre can keep his stock in the lottery. Scouts have been crazy high on him (before the season began), rock bottom on him (after a very slow start), high on him again (after he moved into KU's starting lineup) and lukewarm the last month of the season. His length, shooting touch and defensive abilities are all very attractive, however, and you can make the case he has the highest upside of any wing in the draft. But he's going to need some terrific workouts against Winslow and Johnson, and that might be tough given how physical both players are. Oubre's in the 10-to-15 range right now.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 11 | PLAYER CARD
13
Frank KaminskyCOLLEGE: WisconsinHT: 7-0WT: 234POS: C
2014-15 STATSPPG 18.8RPG 8.2BPG 1.5
Kaminsky had another virtuoso performance in the Final Four, with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 2 blocks against Kentucky's NBA front line, then scoring 21 points and grabbing 12 rebounds against Duke. Kaminsky went head-to-head against the potential No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft (Towns and Okafor) and the guy widely regarded as the best defender in the draft (Cauley-Stein), and he outplayed them all. Not only did he prove worthy of his title as Naismith Player of the Year, but even some of his harshest NBA critics had to concede that Kaminsky is just really good. No, he's not an elite athlete and he'll need to find the right fit and right offensive scheme in the NBA to thrive, but if he wasn't already a lock for the lottery, I think he is now. Look for him to go in the 10-to-15 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 13 | PLAYER CARD
14
Jakob PoeltlCOLLEGE: UtahHT: 7-0WT: 230POS: C
2014-15 STATSPPG 9.1RPG 6.8BPG 1.9
Poeltl benefited greatly from his strong play in the NCAA tournament, especially his defense against Okafor. For scouts who said Poeltl was too weak and would get pushed around, he more than held his own against arguably the strongest, most offensively polished big man in the country. However, he needs to add strength and improve his offensive game. But if Poeltl declares, he'll likely go in the Nos. 13-to-20 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 20 | PLAYER CARD
15
Malik PopeCOLLEGE: San Diego StateHT: 6-10WT: 205POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 5.1RPG 2.7APG .6
Pope is awaiting word from the NBA underclassmen committee on his draft stock. He'll likely return to San Diego State if he's not guaranteed a lottery pick by the committee. He's right on the cusp, according to multiple scouts and GMs I've spoken with, but it really depends on the team. He has elite size, athleticism and shooting/ballhandling skills for a small forward. But he lacks strength and experience. If he returns to San Diego State for another season, he has the potential to be a top-10 pick in 2016.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 16 | PLAYER CARD
16
Sam DekkerCOLLEGE: WisconsinHT: 6-9WT: 230POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 13.9RPG 5.5APG 1.2
Dekker had a major coming-out party in the NCAA tournament -- until his jump shot stopped falling and he took an elbow to the head in the title game versus Duke. Before Monday's game, he was shooting 15-for-30 from 3-point range, with huge games against Coastal Carolina, Oregon, North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. However, his shot just didn't fall against Duke despite several clean looks. He went 0-for-6 from downtown and ended up with just 12 points on 6-for-15 shooting. More importantly, Dekker didn't get to the free throw line once in the game -- an annoying habit that has irked scouts all season. We knew Dekker would eventually revert back to the mean on shooting (he's closer to a 32 percent 3-point shooter than a 50 percent shooter), and unfortunately for him it happened in the most important game of the season. The title game definitely had a bit of a cooling effect on his red-hot draft stock, but Dekker still proved himself to be a possible late lottery selection. His draft range is 13 to 20 right now.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 25 | PLAYER CARD
17
Bobby PortisCOLLEGE: ArkansasHT: 6-11WT: 231POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 17.5RPG 8.9BPG 1.4
Portis has been solid all season but is seeing his draft stock slide as several other players with more upside put up big numbers in the tournament. Still, he's a complete big man and is going to be fine -- if he declares. If so, he should be in the 13-to-20 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 14 | PLAYER CARD
18
Trey LylesCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-10WT: 235POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 8.7RPG 5.2BPG .4
Lyles really came on for Kentucky down the stretch, though his nine-point, one-rebound game against Wisconsin wasn't particularly memorable. While he could clearly use another season at Kentucky to polish his game, most NBA scouts value Lyles' ability to score in the post and in the midrange area and believe he'll be better in the NBA as a 4 in the mold of Carlos Boozer. He's in the 13-to-20 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 17 | PLAYER CARD
19
Devin BookerCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-6WT: 195POS: SG
2014-15 STATSPPG 10RPG 2APG 1.1
Booker might be the best 3-point shooter in the draft, and it was odd that he didn't take even one shot against Wisconsin in Kentucky's loss. Booker started the season in a slump, got red-hot midseason and cooled off toward the end. But in a draft devoid of elite shooters, he and R.J. Hunter should be either the first or second pure shooter off the board after D'Angelo Russell. Booker is in the 13-to-22 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 15 | PLAYER CARD
20
R.J. HunterCOLLEGE: Georgia StHT: 6-5WT: 185POS: SG
2014-15 STATSPPG 19.7RPG 4.7APG 3.6
Hunter turned around a disastrous shooting season with several memorable games in the NCAA tournament. Yes, his shot struggled to fall all season, but no one who watches him play really questions whether he can shoot. Add in a high basketball IQ, the ability to pass, and solid defense in the passing lanes, and Hunter is a better NBA prospect than he showed this season. Scouts are all over the place on his draft stock; landing from 13 to 25 isn't out of the question.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 18 | PLAYER CARD
21
Kris DunnCOLLEGE: ProvidenceHT: 6-3WT: 180POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 15.6RPG 5.5APG 7.5
Dunn is now in an interesting scrum for the title of best point guard in the draft after Mudiay and Russell come off the board. He's in the same group that includes Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, Murray State's Cameron Payne, Duke's Tyus Jones, Louisville's Terry Rozier and Utah's Delon Wright. Dunn gets the slight nod over the pack right now because of his elite athleticism, his size for the position, and his floor vision. He seems like the most ideal candidate to break out as an NBA player, though his poor decision-making and so-so jumper definitely make him a risk. He's in the 14-to-22 draft range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 22 | PLAYER CARD
22
Jerian GrantCOLLEGE: Notre DameHT: 6-5WT: 185POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 16.5RPG 3APG 6.7
If Grant were 19 or 20 years old, he'd be a top-10 pick. He has had as good a season as anyone on the board. However, he turns 23 before opening night of the 2015-16 NBA season, and that "older age" often scares teams from taking a player so high. But Grant actually put up slightly better numbers as a junior, when he was just 21. So Grant's season wasn't a fluke, nor was it good just because he was older than his opponents. I think he might be the most underrated guy on our Board. And like so many players right now in this area of the draft, he could go anywhere from No. 14 to 22.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 21 | PLAYER CARD
23
Cameron PayneCOLLEGE: Murray StateHT: 6-2WT: 180POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 20.2RPG 3.7APG 6
Payne was the hottest point guard in the draft until Tyus Jones won Duke a title on Monday. Payne and Jones have a lot of similarities as pass-first floor generals who play the game with a high basketball IQ but still can put the ball in the basket. The difference is that Payne is taller and a better athlete than Jones, two major sticking points with NBA scouts. Like Dunn and Grant, he's in the 14-to-22 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
24
Tyus JonesCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-1WT: 170POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 11.8RPG 3.5APG 5.6
To be sure, Jones was having a solid tournament before the national championship game. But he simply took over in the second half against Wisconsin and carried Duke on his shoulders to the title. It certainly wasn't the first time we've seen it from him this season. If Jones was a few inches taller, or a faster, more explosive athlete, he'd be a top-five pick. His floor vision, basketball IQ and elite sense of when to pass versus when to score are special. In six games in the tournament he committed just eight turnovers, including only one in 37 minutes during the title game. The challenge for Jones is that he isn't two inches taller and he isn't a great athlete, and the combination of the two puts a serious ceiling on his draft stock. Still, the analytics crew loves him (he's in the top five of Kevin Pelton's statistical big board) and so do old-school scouts, who rarely find a freshman who sees the game as well as Jones does. If he declares, he'll go in the 17-to-25 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 28 | PLAYER CARD
25
Montrezl HarrellCOLLEGE: LouisvilleHT: 6-7WT: 243POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 15.7RPG 9.2BPG 1.2
Harrell, after staying in the 12-to-20 range for the past two seasons, has slowly started to slide in the past few weeks. He has done nothing wrong. In fact, he's gotten better every season, has added to his offensive game and brings explosive athleticism and toughness to the table. But with the rise of several young point guards into the top 30, he has struggled to stand out and maintain his draft status. I think 17 to 25 is his draft range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 19 | PLAYER CARD
26
Rondae Hollis-JeffersonCOLLEGE: ArizonaHT: 6-7WT: 220POS: SF
2014-15 STATSPPG 11.2RPG 6.8APG 1.6
Hollis-Jefferson's decision to declare for the draft was an interesting one. On one hand, scouts acknowledge that he's arguably the best wing defender in the draft and a talented athlete who can finish above the rim. But his lack of a jump shot is a major worry, and with so much talent ahead of him on the Big Board, it's been hard for Hollis-Jefferson to get much traction this season. He's in the 18-to-25 range.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 24 | PLAYER CARD
27
Zhou QiCOLLEGE: ChinaHT: 7-1WT: 215POS: PF
Scouts will get a great look at Zhou in the Nike Hoop Summit this weekend. Already they are talking about his massive 7-6 wingspan and excellent perimeter skills for a player his size. He put up impressive numbers in China. However, his lack of strength (he's very, very skinny for an NBA big man) give pause. Nevertheless, at this stage in the draft, he has as much or more upside than anyone else on the board.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 27 | PLAYER CARD
28
Terry RozierCOLLEGE: LouisvilleHT: 6-2WT: 190POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 17.1RPG 5.6APG 3
Rozier's decision to declare for the draft was a somewhat controversial one. Those who love him see his toughness, athleticism and ability to finish at the rim and project him as mid-first-rounder. The skeptical ones question whether he's really a point guard and wonder about his jump shot. Thus, he has a pretty wide range right now, from about 18 to 35.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 23 | PLAYER CARD
29
Delon WrightCOLLEGE: UtahHT: 6-5WT: 178POS: PG
2014-15 STATSPPG 14.5RPG 4.9APG 5.1
Mostly because of his age (he'll be 23 on April 26), Wright is struggling to keep up with younger point guards on the board. But make no mistake, there are several scouts and GMs who really love him, and he tests out analytically much higher than this ranking. At the moment he's stuck in that 20-to-35 range along with several others.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. 26 | PLAYER CARD
30
Christian WoodCOLLEGE: UNLVHT: 6-11WT: 220POS: PF
2014-15 STATSPPG 15.7RPG 10BPG 2.7
Wood cracks our Big Board for the first time and there's a lot to like. He has great size, length and athleticism for his position. He is an explosive leaper, a good rebounder and a tremendous shot-blocker. He also has a much-improved perimeter game and he shot 45 percent on 2-point jump shots this season. He even has some 3-point range. He lacks strength and can often fall in love with his jump shot at the expense of playing in the post, but there is upside there for a team willing to wait on his development.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
Next five in: Grayson Allen, G, Duke; Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame; Caris LeVert, G/F, Michigan; Jarell Martin, F, LSU; Justin Anderson, G/F, Virginia
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft/mock/?season=2015&source=Chad-Ford-Big-Board