Im just saying that I factored in those games as probable losses already. Thanks for the correction re: Hawks odds without starters. Wish you wouldnt question my motivations, though - it just isnt necessary
Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help. THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them.
#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)
#2 THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.
saw #1 pointed out in another thread. I know those games only count as 2 losses but that's a big help in passing Brooklyn
It's an interesting point. However, those aren't games that Bkn would win anyway - I'd say that the Hawks could rest their stars and still be favored.
That is not true by a longshot. The Bobcats were favored by about 4 points when the Hawks rested their starters a week ago. The Nets would be anywhere from 8-12 point favorites at home versus the Hawks if they were to rest their starters and 2-5 point favorites on the road. Are you just making stuff up at this point to downplay the Celtics chances?
Look man we all have biases where we let what we want to happen impact our outlook and predictions. Its human nature. So you have to look at things like statistical models and point differentials to make the best prediction you can. All of the models I have seen since the Celtics won their last game have us at about 50% to make the playoffs. This would only have increased slightly with the Heat's blowout loss. To put their chances at half of that without any new information (ie Isiah Thomas will miss the next of the season), doesn't really make a sense and reeks of what you want you happen.
Care to cite? I found one model that put the C's around 45%. I argued that 25% was a first approximation and said that it was an underestimate but that you really have to stretch to reach 50%.
I think my argument is pretty reasonable. You can make a case for 40%, and I've made a case for 25-50%, but I don't think you can really make a case for 60%. So I don't see why you're jumping to the conclusion that I must be biased.
Hollinger playoff odds is probably the most well known one, and the one you are referencing
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds 45.6%
Sportsclubstats is pretty legic and have us a little higher
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA.html48.6
I will add that both of these do not appear to have been updated to include Sullinger's surprise return or possible injury to wade which are small but not insignificant factors.
I also said nothing about 60%. So I am not sure why you have to "really stretch" to add 1.4% or 4.4% to get us to 50%. You do have to really stretch to get us to 25%. We also "don't have to make a case" for 40% we are above that. The lowest chances I could find us at was 43.5 on basketball reference and that seemed to have the least advanced model. Unfortunately 538 hasn't updated their odds since March 30th.
If you want to say something that really conflicts with the math or ratings system available give a compelling reason. If you don't do so, which you haven't, then it is fair for people to say you are being pessimistic or expressing a bias.
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Topic: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50% (Read 6375 times)