Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%

[loco_91]

So let's review the bottom of the Leastern playoff race:

6. Bucks 37-38
7. Nets 34-40
8. Heat 34-41
9. Celts 34-41
10. Hornets 32-42
11. Indy 32-43

Most teams have 7-8 games remaining. Let's rank these teams in terms of remaining-schedule strength, easiest to hardest:

1 and 2: The heat and bucks have a cakewalk schedule.

Heat: @Pistons, @Pacers, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Magic, @Sixers
Bucks: @C's, Magic, Cavs, @Knicks, Nets, @Sixers, C's.

Both teams will likely stay in the playoffs.

3,4: The Hornets and Pacers have an even mix of winnable and tough games. Pacers only have 2 more away games, though:

Hornets: @Pacers, Sixers, @Heat, Raptors, @Hawks, @Pistons, Rockets, Raptors
Pacers: Hornets, Heat, @Knicks, @Pistons, Thunder, Wiz, Grizzlies

5: The Nets have a tough schedule, but at least they get to play 5/7 and 6/8 at home: Raptors, @Hawks, Blazers, Hawks, Wiz, @Bucks, Bulls, Magic

6: The C's schedule is tough: Bucks, @Raptors, @Pistons, @Cavs, Cavs, Raptors, @Bucks.

Given the standings and the remaining schedules, it is very likely that the Heat and Bucks will make the playoffs. Assuming that they do, there are 4 teams vying for 1 spot, with fairly even odds. We have slightly better odds than the Hornets and Pacers, with +2 in the win column to make up for the difference in schedule strength, but slightly worse odds than the Nets. So a reasonable first estimate of our playoff odds is 1/4. Factoring in the possibility that the Bucks and Heat might miss the playoffs, especially since we play the Bucks twice and Wade is out, 1/2 still seems like it would be way too optimistic.

Thoughts?

Edit: the Jazz are in the west, lol. Originally wrote this about the lotto standings and forgot to take them out

[Quetzalcoatl]

The Jazz are in the west.

Also, man that Heat schedule is cake.  I know they are missing their two best players, but Deng/Whiteside/Dragic should be able to handle that

[celtics2030]

Jazz dude? lol

[csfansince60s]

I think that the Nets have a much tougher road than us. Except for the Magic, every game is likely to have meaning for the opponent.

For us, the Cav's back to backs will likely be meaningless for them, Detroit should be a win and the Bucks have faded a bit (3-7 in last 10).

[LarBrd33]

Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help.  THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them. 

#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)

#2  THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.

[celticsclay]

The Jazz are in the west.

Also, man that Heat schedule is cake.  I know they are missing their two best players, but Deng/Whiteside/Dragic should be able to handle that

not sure how the heat schedule is cake. They play 4 teams in playoffs or fighting for playoffs. Also if you have watched them play at all lately, they have not been very good. I wouldn't pencil them in for a win versus anyone. Whiteside is also severely regressing. He has been battling an injury lately, but also hasn't been the same since mid January. League may have figured him out.

[slamtheking]

Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help.  THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them. 

#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)

#2  THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.

saw #1 pointed out in another thread.  I know those games only count as 2 losses but that's a big help in passing Brooklyn

[slamtheking]

So let's review the bottom of the Leastern playoff race:

6. Bucks 37-38
7. Nets 34-40
8. Heat 34-41
9. Celts 34-41
10. Hornets 32-42
11. Indy 32-43

At this point, I think Bucks and Heat are in.  Hornets and Indy are out.  comes down to Brooklyn and C's.  Brooklyn's playing well right now but have 2 games against Atlanta where I doubt the Hawks will rest any starters.

[loco_91]

Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help.  THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them. 

#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)

#2  THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.

saw #1 pointed out in another thread.  I know those games only count as 2 losses but that's a big help in passing Brooklyn

It's an interesting point. However, those aren't games that Bkn would win anyway - I'd say that the Hawks could rest their stars and still be favored.

[celticsclay]

An additional  few notes on the Heat

McRoberts, Bosh and Napier are all out for the season.

Deng returned last night from "knee swelling" and has missed numerous games over the last month.

Haslem (although ancient, one of their only healthy bigs):

"Haslem said he's been unable to eat for the past three days, so we'll be considering him questionable for Saturday's game vs. Detroit, as well as Sunday's game vs. Indiana. With Haslem unavailable, look for Chris Andersen and Hassan Whiteside to get all the run they can handle, with Andersen the likely starter for tonight "


Wade:

When you go down like that, I knew I was in trouble," Wade said of the non-contact injury. "I was a little concerned. But once they did the test on my knee to make sure all my ligaments were strong, I felt a little better. It could have been worse. Everybody thought it was a groin. The only thing I feel is where my left knee banged on the floor. That's the sorest right now." If Wade can't go on Saturday, he'll have another opportunity to play Sunday vs. the Pacers, and we'll be monitoring this situation very closely. Mario Chamlers and Tyler Johnson will benefit if he misses any time

Whiteside: Hassan Whiteside said that his hand is improving.

"It’s getting better. Each day I get closer to taking the stitches out, and I can’t wait until that day comes," said Whiteside. Hassan managed to log 27 minutes during his last outing, in which he scored 17 points with a full line. His minutes should gradually increase as his hand improves, and he's obviously a must-start guy every time he's in uniform

[celticsclay]

Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help.  THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them. 

#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)

#2  THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.

saw #1 pointed out in another thread.  I know those games only count as 2 losses but that's a big help in passing Brooklyn

It's an interesting point. However, those aren't games that Bkn would win anyway - I'd say that the Hawks could rest their stars and still be favored.

That is not true by a longshot. The Bobcats were favored by about 4 points when the Hawks rested their starters a week ago. The Nets would be anywhere from 8-12 point favorites at home versus the Hawks if they were to rest their starters and 2-5 point favorites on the road. Are you just making stuff up at this point to downplay the Celtics chances?

[Tr1boy]

we have as good as chance as anyone to make the playoffs

Cavs i doubt will go hard at the tail end of the season.  We should hopefully win one game

Raptors are not that great as of late. Lowry is not playing

[bknova]

So let's review the bottom of the Leastern playoff race:

6. Bucks 37-38
7. Nets 34-40
8. Heat 34-41
9. Celts 34-41
10. Hornets 32-42
11. Indy 32-43

Most teams have 7-8 games remaining. Let's rank these teams in terms of remaining-schedule strength, easiest to hardest:

1 and 2: The heat and bucks have a cakewalk schedule.

Heat: @Pistons, @Pacers, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Magic, @Sixers
Bucks: @C's, Magic, Cavs, @Knicks, Nets, @Sixers, C's.

Both teams will likely stay in the playoffs.

3,4: The Hornets and Pacers have an even mix of winnable and tough games. Pacers only have 2 more away games, though:

Hornets: @Pacers, Sixers, @Heat, Raptors, @Hawks, @Pistons, Rockets, Raptors
Pacers: Hornets, Heat, @Knicks, @Pistons, Thunder, Wiz, Grizzlies

5: The Nets have a tough schedule, but at least they get to play 5/7 and 6/8 at home: Raptors, @Hawks, Blazers, Hawks, Wiz, @Bucks, Bulls, Magic

6: The C's schedule is tough: Bucks, @Raptors, @Pistons, @Cavs, Cavs, Raptors, @Bucks.

Given the standings and the remaining schedules, it is very likely that the Heat and Bucks will make the playoffs. Assuming that they do, there are 4 teams vying for 1 spot, with fairly even odds. We have slightly better odds than the Hornets and Pacers, with +2 in the win column to make up for the difference in schedule strength, but slightly worse odds than the Nets. So a reasonable first estimate of our playoff odds is 1/4. Factoring in the possibility that the Bucks and Heat might miss the playoffs, especially since we play the Bucks twice and Wade is out, 1/2 still seems like it would be way too optimistic.

Thoughts?

Edit: the Jazz are in the west, lol. Originally wrote this about the lotto standings and forgot to take them out

Good.  Making the playoffs with this roster and not having a lottery ticket in this draft is a terrible, terrible idea.

[loco_91]

Im just saying that I factored in those games as probable losses already. Thanks for the correction re: Hawks odds without starters. Wish you wouldnt question my motivations, though - it just isnt necessary

Nets have two games left vs Atlanta that should help.  THere's double incentive for the Hawks to beat them. 

#1 They own their draft pick this year and knocking them out of the playoffs could be the difference between the #15 pick and #12 pick (or even as high as 9th best odds)

#2  THey probably want to avoid playing Brooklyn in the playoffs.

saw #1 pointed out in another thread.  I know those games only count as 2 losses but that's a big help in passing Brooklyn

It's an interesting point. However, those aren't games that Bkn would win anyway - I'd say that the Hawks could rest their stars and still be favored.

That is not true by a longshot. The Bobcats were favored by about 4 points when the Hawks rested their starters a week ago. The Nets would be anywhere from 8-12 point favorites at home versus the Hawks if they were to rest their starters and 2-5 point favorites on the road. Are you just making stuff up at this point to downplay the Celtics chances?

[celticsclay]

So let's review the bottom of the Leastern playoff race:

6. Bucks 37-38
7. Nets 34-40
8. Heat 34-41
9. Celts 34-41
10. Hornets 32-42
11. Indy 32-43

Most teams have 7-8 games remaining. Let's rank these teams in terms of remaining-schedule strength, easiest to hardest:

1 and 2: The heat and bucks have a cakewalk schedule.

Heat: @Pistons, @Pacers, Hornets, Bulls, Raptors, Magic, @Sixers
Bucks: @C's, Magic, Cavs, @Knicks, Nets, @Sixers, C's.

Both teams will likely stay in the playoffs.

3,4: The Hornets and Pacers have an even mix of winnable and tough games. Pacers only have 2 more away games, though:

Hornets: @Pacers, Sixers, @Heat, Raptors, @Hawks, @Pistons, Rockets, Raptors
Pacers: Hornets, Heat, @Knicks, @Pistons, Thunder, Wiz, Grizzlies

5: The Nets have a tough schedule, but at least they get to play 5/7 and 6/8 at home: Raptors, @Hawks, Blazers, Hawks, Wiz, @Bucks, Bulls, Magic

6: The C's schedule is tough: Bucks, @Raptors, @Pistons, @Cavs, Cavs, Raptors, @Bucks.

Given the standings and the remaining schedules, it is very likely that the Heat and Bucks will make the playoffs. Assuming that they do, there are 4 teams vying for 1 spot, with fairly even odds. We have slightly better odds than the Hornets and Pacers, with +2 in the win column to make up for the difference in schedule strength, but slightly worse odds than the Nets. So a reasonable first estimate of our playoff odds is 1/4. Factoring in the possibility that the Bucks and Heat might miss the playoffs, especially since we play the Bucks twice and Wade is out, 1/2 still seems like it would be way too optimistic.

Thoughts?

Edit: the Jazz are in the west, lol. Originally wrote this about the lotto standings and forgot to take them out

Good.  Making the playoffs with this roster and not having a lottery ticket in this draft is a terrible, terrible idea.

"Accepts false premise from poster with similar hopes/agenda, embraces it.*